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Are China and India engaged in a cold economic and information war?

Note: This is resubmitted after making edits to better fit the quality requirements of this sub.
While most media attention on China focuses on China’s relationship with the US, one player that rarely gets mentioned--at least in mainstream Western media--is India.
In an October 2019 analysis by Deborah Brautigam that explored the origin of the term "debt trap diplomacy" for Chinese investments, she revealed the following:
On 23 January 2017, a Chinese debt-trap diplomacy meme was born in a think tank in northern India and was furthered by a paperwritten by two Harvard University graduate students who called it Chinese ‘debt book diplo-macy’.
A recent thread on china revealed some surprising data (non-academic, I know, but it's a good barometer for general sentiment on China as many of the more critical stories regarding China has first emerged on that sub, and then slowly propagated out towards more mainstream subs/media). Namely--by analyzing 449 tweets with the hashtag of #TweetforTaiwan, it found that 49% of the tweets originated from India.
Most recently, Times of India has also advocated for Taiwan's participation in the WHO by interviewing the foreign minister of Taiwan--which has since drawn an official statement from the Chinese embassy in India.
But most importantly, India has recently announced that it is setting aside nearly half a million hectares of land to entice foreign firms into leaving China.
PM Modi has also emphasized that he had little desire for India to play second fiddle to China. While some can argue that this is due to him pandering to the Hindu nationalist base that makes up his supporters, it's not a statement to be taken lightly because the BJP--by taking a supermajority in the Indian Congress--is in a position to enact its policies at will without regard for the opposition.

The Trade Reality of India vis-a-vis the United States

You can read the US trade department's 2019 analysis of India here. It's a fairly dense read, but the basic summary is this:
The United States has actively sought bilateral and multilateral opportunities to increase access to India’s market, and the government of India has pursued ongoing economic reform efforts. Nevertheless, U.S. exporters continue to encounter significant tariff and nontariff barriers that impede imports of U.S. products into India.
Other points raised in the document:
The document goes on to list additional trade barriers that India has put up against the United States, and they are far too many to list here. But taken as a whole, the overall summary seems to be this: India--from a trade policy perspective--is not that much different or even that advantageous compared to China.
Yet in the face of greater US-China economic rivalry, India has emerged as a seemingly viable alternative to China despite data suggesting the contrary.
This is due to the major advantage India has over China, which I will discuss in the next section.

The Advantages India Holds Over China

ADVANTAGE 1: ONLINE PRESENCE
The biggest advantage that India holds over China in an economic cold war has little to do with any underlying economic strength, nor does it have anything to do with how easy it is for foreign companies to enter India.
Instead, the biggest advantage India has over China is its online presence in the Western internet. With 560 million internet users, India is the second largest online market after China. But unlike China, India’s internet is not locked behind a government imposed barrier.
The lack of such a barrier has given rise to a sophisticated disinformation/propaganda arm for Indian political parties—most notably the BJP—on Western internet channels such as Twitter and Facebook.
The Centre for International Governance Innovation think tank has done the following analysis of how the BJP’s propaganda arm makes use of Western social media to set the narrative: - The grassroots workers share hyperlocal information about development activities — for instance, a beneficiary getting access to services offered under a government scheme — and work done by their party with voters in their area. They click images and videos as proof and circulate to demonstrate that the party cares about local issues. - The party foot soldiers broadcast their mobilization efforts to their superiors in the party, earning praise and encouragement from the leadership. - The networked system allows the party command to centrally share information through the chain of WhatsApp groups being operated — bypassing the editorial filter of news media. - On Twitter, an army of online warriors takes part in the narrative-setting game. Even though Twitter usage is largely restricted to the country’s elites, journalists and influencers hang out on the micro-blogging platform, meaning the sentiment smoothly seeps into the wider information ecosystem.
Basically, India has coopted the Western internet and used it to their advantage, while China has taken the approach of shutting out the Western internet altogether in favor of cultivating its own walled garden.
This means that China's closed off internet ecosystem is incapable of effectively competing with India's online presence. Moreover, Chinese netizens who do manage to overcome the barriers can find themselves facing state suppression and persecution. This limits Chinese disinformation methods to either state media, or state-sanctioned individuals who often must be vetted for political loyalty before they are set loose. This level of political control and loyalty that China demands has severely limited its ability to project its message outside of the Chinese internet.
The ability for India's different political parties to set the narrative gives India a crucial advantage when it comes to either spreading pro-Indian messages or smearing potential adversaries.
ADVANTAGE 2: MAINTAINING A SUPPORTIVE DIASPORA
Indian Americans maintain a high degree of connection to their motherland (for lack of a better term), and this data is supported by India being the top remittance-receiving country in 2018.
While Chinese immigrants maintain a similar level of connection to their motherland (China ranks second after India in the top remittance-receiving countries in 2018 from the same Times of India report), a prevailing attitude of Chinese diaspora has been one of pride for their homeland but suspicion for the government:
Many overseas Chinese have shown pride in the considerable economic achievements China has made over the past four decades, allowing it to become the world’s second largest economy. On the other hand, they also harbour deep-rooted suspicion and disapproval of the party’s authoritarian approach and its intolerance towards dissent or media freedom.
Hence, when talking politics, those overseas Chinese like to highlight that their love of country is in no way related to a love of the Communist Party.
As the CCP increasingly demand that supporting China be intertwined with supporting the CCP—a message that the party can control and foster only within its walled garden—it is more likely to drive overseas Chinese further away from supporting the party’s policies.
In 2019, the "Howdy Modi" convention in Houston, Texas drew a crowd of 50,000. It's difficult to imagine a similar number of supporters if a CCP politician were to announce a similar trip.
The popularity Indian politicians like Modi can expect in the West, coupled with an effective propaganda wing from within India that has a massive presence on social media to set the narrative gives India a tremendous advantage in maintaining a high degree of loyalty in its diaspora population. This diaspora can later prove to be a useful tool in advancing Indian foreign policy by amplifying the messages from within India.
Disclaimer: this by no means implies that Hindu Indian Americans are acting as a fifth column to advance India's goals, but merely suggests that Hindu Indian Americans are likely to share and disseminate Indian propaganda--with or without realizing that they are doing so.

Can China Counter this?

In the current information war, China is losing. Badly. By building a caged garden, China's information warriors are largely clueless as to how to effectively spread their propaganda. Two examples come to mind.
The first example was during the recent Hong Kong protests. China's attempt at controlling the narrative fell apart almost as quickly as it began, as many of its messages included support for party control, casting the protesters as Hong Kong independence provocateurs, or suggesting CIA influence rather than focusing on specific instances of targeted violence and xenophobic attacks on Mandarin speaking individuals (including attacks on Taiwanese media).
Another example is how China has been incapable of finding a way to reduce the influence of Falun Gong media such as the Epoch Times and New Tang Dynasty TV in the West. These channels can operate unimpeded from Chinese state repression on the Western internet, and when China does try and respond to them, the results often come across as clumsy and ham-fisted because attempts at control tend to follow Chinese internet control strategies. However, from experience, China can ill afford to relax its internet controls: both the 2008 Tibetan protests and the 2009 Urumqi attacks were organized through Facebook. Relaxing internet controls would also see the internet, both within and without China, be flooded with Chinese nationalists--a faction that Beijing has simultaneously encouraged and suppressed depending on the needs of the state.
If China were to go on the information war offensive against India to retain its economic advantage, it must take a two-pronged approach:
On highlighting the unfair trade practices of India: The advantage that China holds in this regard is that the world has already formed a negative opinion on Chinese trade practices, therefore creating a situation in which China only has something to lose if other countries can offer a more attractive alternative.
By depriving the world of seeing India as a viable alternative, China can join in international pressure to force the Indian economy to open up further without giving India the opportunity to develop an industrial base capable of protecting its fledgling industries.
In such a scenario, China would be able to leverage its massive industrial capability into India and gobble up local Indian partners, or otherwise choose to support companies that would adopt pro-China practices. In essence, by attacking India before it can build an effective industrial base, China can enact a a softer version of the colonialist methods that the British used to subjugate India in the 19th century. This may possibly explain why the term "debt trap diplomacy" first emerged from an Indian think tank.
On Using Local Indian Partners to Sow Ideas: By partnering with local voices in India and sowing the idea that once India becomes developed enough, it would also face the same trade scrutiny that China has faced, China can attempt to pivot India away from developing friendlier ties to the West and return it towards its Non-Aligned status it adopted during the Cold War. However, these efforts can largely be stymied by government policy--and in fact, the Modi government has required that Chinese investment into India be approved first.
There is still a lot of room for the rivalry and/or partnership between China and India to continue developing in this coming decade. But it's clear that at the current moment, India seems to have a distinctive advantage.
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[TRADE] Forex / Stock / Trading strategy

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Last Edited 07/03/20


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submitted by ElectronicDimension7 to Coursebay [link] [comments]

[TRADE] Forex / Stock / Trading strategy

I'm always trading, flexible and willing to negotiate a deal. If you want something I have but don't have anything to trade, feel free to message me directly, we can work something out! :).
I have THOUSANDS more items that are not listed, if you're looking for something that is not on the list, I'm probably sorting it out, just ask me because I probably have it either way. My Lists gets updated and new items are added DAILY.

Last Edited 07/03/20


What I have to offer: 

Trading strategy:

Forex

Stocks

submitted by ElectronicDimension7 to u/ElectronicDimension7 [link] [comments]

My First Year of Trading

So here it is, three more days and October begins, which marks one year of trading for me. I figured I would contribute to the forum and share some of my experience, a little about me, and what I've learned so far. Whoever wants to listen, that's great. This might get long so buckle up..
Three years ago, I was visiting Toronto. I don't get out much, but my roommate at the time travels there occasionally. He asked everyone at our place if we wanted to come along for a weekend. My roommate has an uncle that lives there and we didn't have to worry about a hotel because his uncle owns a small house that's unlived in which we could stay at. I was the only one to go with. Anyways, we walk around the city, seeing the sights and whatnot.
My friend says to me "where next?"
"I don't know, you're the tour guide"
"We can go check out Bay Street"
"what's 'Bay Street?'"
"It's like the Canadian Wall street! If you haven't seen it you gotta see it!"
Walking along Bay, I admire all the nice buildings and architecture, everything seems larger than life to me. I love things like that. The huge granite facades with intricate designs and towering pillars to make you think, How the fuck did they make that? My attention pivots to a man walking on the sidewalk opposite us. His gait stood out among everyone, he walked with such a purpose.. He laughed into the cell phone to his ear. In the elbow-shoving city environment, he moved with a stride that exuded a power which not only commanded respect, but assumed it. I bet HE can get a text back, hell he's probably got girls waiting on him. This dude was dressed to kill, a navy suit that you could just tell from across the street was way out of my budget, it was a nice fucking suit. I want that. His life, across the street, seemed a world a way from my own. I've worn a suit maybe twice in my life. For my first communion, it was too big for me, I was eleven or whatever so who gives a shit, right? I'm positive I looked ridiculous. The other time? I can't remember.
I want that. I want the suit. I want the wealth, the independence. I want the respect and power, and I don't give a shit what anyone thinks about it.
Cue self doubt.
Well, He's probably some rich banker's son. That's a world you're born into. I don't know shit about it. \sigh* keep walking..*

A year later, I'm visiting my parents at their house, they live an hour away from my place. My dad is back from Tennessee, his engineering job was laying people off and he got canned... Or he saw the end was near and just left... I don't know, hard to pay attention to the guy honestly because he kind of just drones on and on. ("Wait, so your mom lives in Michigan, but your dad moved to Tennessee... for a job?" Yea man, I don't fucking know, not going to touch on that one.) The whole project was a shit show that was doomed to never get done, the way he tells it. And he's obviously jaded from multiple similar experiences at other life-sucking engineer jobs. My mom is a retired nurse practitioner who no longer works because of her illness. I ask him what he's doing for work now and he tells me he trades stocks from home. I didn't even know you could do that. I didn't know "trading" was a thing. I thought you just invest and hope for the best.
"Oh that's cool, how much money do you need to do that?"
"Ehh, most say you need at least $25,000 as a minimum"
"Oh... guess I can't do that..."
Six months later, I get a call and it's my dad. We talk a little about whatever. Off topic, he starts asking if I'm happy doing what I'm doing (I was a painter, commercial and residential) I tell him yes but it's kind of a pain in the ass and I don't see it as a long term thing. Then he gets around to asking if I'd like to come work with him. He basically pitches it to me. I'm not one to be sold on something, I'm always skeptical. So I ask all the questions that any rational person would ask and he just swats them away with reassuring phrases. He was real confident about it. But basically he says for this to work, I have to quit my job and move back home so he can teach me how to trade and be by my side so I don't do anything stupid. "My Name , you can make so much money." I say that I can't raise the $25,000 because I'm not far above just living paycheck to paycheck. "I can help you out with that." Wow, okay, well... let me think about it.
My "maybe" very soon turned into a "definitely." So over the next six months, I continue to work my day job painting, and I try to save up what I could for the transition (it wasn't a whole lot, I sucked at saving. I was great at spending though!). My dad gives me a book on day trading (which I will mention later) and I teach myself what I can about the stock market using Investopedia. Also in the meantime, my dad sends me encouraging emails. He tells me to think of an annual income I would like to make as a trader, and used "more than $100,000 but less than a million" as a guideline. He tells me about stocks that he traded that day or just ones that moved and describes the basic price action and the prices to buy and sell at. Basically saying "if you bought X amount of shares here and sold it at X price here, you could make a quick 500 bucks!" I then use a trading sim to trade those symbols and try to emulate what he says. Piece of cake. ;)
Wow, that's way more than what I make in a day.
He tells me not to tell anyone about my trading because most people just think it's gambling. "Don't tell your Mom either." He says most people who try this fail because they don't know how to stop out and take a loss. He talks about how every day he was in a popular chatroom, some noob would say something like, "Hey guys, I bought at X price (high of day or thereabout), my account is down 80% .. uhh I'm waiting for it to come back to my entry price.. what do I do??"
Well shit, I'm not that fucking dumb. If that's all it takes to make it is to buy low, sell high, and always respect a stop then I'll be fantastic.
By the end of September, I was very determined. I had been looking forward everyday to quitting my painting job because while it used to be something I loved, it was just sucking the life out of me at this point. Especially working commercial, you just get worked like a dog. I wasn't living up to my potential with that job and I felt awful for it every minute of every day. I knew that I needed a job where I could use my brain instead of slaving my body to fulfill someone else's dream. "Someone's gotta put gas in the boss's boat" That's a line my buddy once said that he probably doesn't know sticks with me to this day.
It ain't me.
So now it was October 2018, and I'm back living with Mom n' Pops. I was so determined that on my last day of work I gave away all of my painting tools to my buddy like, "here, I don't need this shit." Moving out of my rental was easy because I don't own much, 'can't take it with ya.' Excited for the future I now spend my days bundled up in winter wear in the cold air of our hoarder-like basement with a space heater at my feet. My laptop connected to a TV monitor, I'm looking at stocks next to my dad and his screens in his cluttered corner. Our Trading Dungeon. I don't trade any money, (I wasn't aware of any real-time sim programs) I just watch and learn from my dad. Now you've got to keep in mind, and look at a chart of the S&P, this is right at the beginning of Oct '18, I came in right at the market top. Right at the start of the shit-show. For the next three or four weeks, I watch my dad pretty much scratch on every trade, taking small loss after small loss, and cursing under his breath at the screen.
Click.
"dammit."
Click.
"shit."
Click. Click.
"you fuck."
Click.
This gets really fucking annoying as time goes on, for weeks, and I get this attitude like ugh, just let me do it. I'll make us some fucking money. So I convince him to let me start trading live. I didn't know anything about brokers so I set up an account using his broker, which was Fidelity. It was a pain and I had to jump through a lot of hoops to be able to day trade with this broker. I actually had to make a joint account with my dad as I couldn't get approved for margin because my credit score is shit (never owned a credit card) and my net worth, not much. Anyways, they straight up discourage day trading and I get all kinds of warning messages with big red letters that made me shit myself like oooaaahhh what the fuck did I do now. Did I forget to close a position?? Did I fat finger an order? Am I now in debt for thousands of dollars to Fidelity?? They're going to come after me like they came after Madoff. Even after you are approved for PDT you still get these warning messages in your account. Some would say if I didn't comply with "whatever rule" they'd even suspend my account for 60 days. It was ridiculous, hard to describe because it doesn't make sense, and it took the support guy on the phone a good 20 minutes to explain it to me. Basically I got the answer "yea it's all good, you did nothing wrong. As long as you have the cash in your account to cover whatever the trade balance was" So I just kept getting these warnings that I had to ignore everyday. I hate Fidelity.
My fist day trading, I made a few so-so trades and then I got impatient. I saw YECO breaking out and I chased, soon realized I chased, so I got out. -$500. Shit, I have to make that back, I don't want my dad to see this. Got back in. Shit. -$400. So my first day trading, I lost $900. My dumbass was using market orders so that sure didn't help. I reeled the risk back and traded more proper position size for a while, but the commissions for a round trip are $10, so taking six trades per day, I'm losing $60 at a minimum on top of my losing trades. Quickly I realized I didn't know what the hell I was doing. What about my dad? Does HE know? One day, in the trading dungeon, I was frustrated with the experience I'd been having and just feeling lost overall. I asked him.
"So, are you consistently profitable?"
"mmm... I do alright."
"Yea but like, are you consistently profitable over time?"
.........................
"I do alright."
Silence.
"Do you know any consistently profitable traders?"
"Well the one who wrote that book I gave you, Tina Turner.. umm and there's Ross Cameron"
......................
"So you don't know any consistently profitable traders, personally.. People who are not trying to sell you something?"
"no."
...................
Holy fucking shit, what did this idiot get me into. He can't even say it to my face and admit it.
This entire life decision, quitting my job, leaving my rental, moving from my city to back home, giving shit away, it all relied on that. I was supposed to be an apprentice to a consistently profitable day trader who trades for a living. It was so assumed, that I never even thought to ask! Why would you tell your son to quit his job for something that you yourself cannot do? Is this all a scam? Did my dad get sold a DREAM? Did I buy into some kind of ponzi scheme? How many of those winning trades he showed me did he actually take? Are there ANY consistently profitable DAY TRADERS who TRADE FOR A LIVING? Why do 90% fail? Is it because the other 10% are scamming the rest in some way? Completely lost, I just had no clue what was what. If I was going to succeed at this, if it was even possible to succeed at this, it was entirely up to me. I had to figure it out. I still remember the feeling like an overwhelming, crushing weight on me as it all sunk in. This is going to be a big deal.. I'm not the type to give up though. In that moment, I said to myself,
I'm going to fucking win at this. I don't know if this is possible, but I'm going to find out. I cannot say with certainty that I will succeed, but no matter what, I will not give up. I'm going to give all of myself to this. I will find the truth.
It was a deep moment for me. I don't like getting on my soapbox, but when I said those things, I meant it. I really, really meant it. I still do, and I still will.
Now it might seem like I'm being hard on my dad. He has done a lot for me and I am very grateful for that. We're sarcastic as hell to each other, I love the bastard. Hell, I wouldn't have the opportunity to trade at all if not for him. But maybe you can also understand how overwhelmed I felt at that time. Not on purpose, of course he means well. But I am not a trusting person at all and I was willing to put trust into him after all the convincing and was very disappointed when I witnessed the reality of the situation. I would have structured this transition to trading differently, you don't just quit your job and start trading. Nobody was there to tell me that! I was told quite the opposite. I'm glad it happened anyway, so fuck it. I heard Kevin O'Leary once say,
"If I knew in the beginning how difficult starting a business was, I don't know that I ever would've started."
This applies very much to my experience.
So what did I do? Well like everyone I read and read and Googled and Youtube'd my ass off. I sure as hell didn't pay for a course because I didn't have the money and I'm like 99% sure I would be disappointed by whatever they were teaching as pretty much everything can be found online or in books for cheap or free. Also I discovered Thinkorswim and I used that to sim trade in real-time for three months. This is way the hell different than going on a sim at 5x speed and just clicking a few buy and sell buttons. Lol, useless. When you sim trade in real-time you're forced to have a routine, and you're forced to experience missing trades with no chance to rewind or skip the boring parts. That's a step up because you're "in it". I also traded real money too, made some, lost more than I made. went back to sim. Traded live again, made some but lost more, fell back to PDT. Dad fronted me more cash. This has happened a few times. He's dug me out of some holes because he believes in me. I'm fortunate.
Oh yeah, about that book my dad gave me. It's called A Beginner's Guide to Day Trading Online by Toni Turner. This book... is shit. This was supposed to be my framework for how to trade and I swear it's like literally nothing in this book fucking works lol. I could tell this pretty early on, intuitively, just by looking at charts. It's basically a buy-the-breakout type strategy, if you want to call it a strategy. No real methodology to anything just vague crap and showing you cherry-picked charts with entries that are way too late. With experience in the markets you will eventually come to find that MOST BREAKOUTS FAIL. It talks about support/resistance lines and describes them as, "picture throwing a ball down at the floor, it bounces up and then it bounces down off the ceiling, then back up." So many asinine assumptions. These ideas are a text book way of how to trade like dumb money. Don't get me wrong, these trades can work but you need to be able to identify the setups which are more probable and identify reasons not to take others. So I basically had to un-learn all that shit.
Present day, I have a routine in place. I'm out of the dungeon and trade by myself in my room. I trade with a discount broker that is catered to day traders and doesn't rape me on commissions. My mornings have a framework for analyzing the news and economic events of the particular day, I journal so that I can recognize what I'm doing right and where I need to improve. I record my screens for later review to improve my tape reading skills. I am actually tracking my trades now and doing backtesting in equities as well as forex. I'm not a fast reader but I do read a lot, as much as I can. So far I have read about 17-18 books on trading and psychology. I've definitely got a lot more skilled at trading.
As of yet I am not net profitable. Writing that sounds like selling myself short though, honestly. Because a lot of my trades are very good and are executed well. I have talent. However, lesser quality trades and trades which are inappropriately sized/ attempted too many times bring down that P/L. I'm not the type of trader to ignore a stop, I'm more the trader that just widdles their account down with small losses. I trade live because at this point, sim has lost its value, live trading is the ultimate teacher. So I do trade live but I just don't go big like I did before, I keep it small.
I could show you trades that I did great on and make people think I'm killing it but I really just don't need the validation. I don't care, I'm real about it. I just want to get better. I don't need people to think I'm a genius, I'm just trying to make some money.
Psychologically, to be honest with you, I currently feel beaten down and exhausted. I put a lot of energy into this, and sometimes I work myself physically sick, it's happened multiple times. About once a week, usually Saturday, I get a headache that lasts all day. My body's stress rebound mechanism you might call it. Getting over one of those sick periods now, which is why I barely even traded this week. I know I missed a lot of volatility this week and some A+ setups but I really just don't give a shit lol. I just currently don't have the mental capital, I think anyone who's been day trading every day for a year or more can understand what I mean by that. I'm still being productive though. Again, I'm not here to present an image of some badass trader, just keeping it real. To give something 100% day after day while receiving so much resistance, it takes a toll on you. So a break is necessary to avoid making bad trading decisions. That being said, I'm progressing more and more and eliminating those lesser quality trades and identifying my bad habits. I take steps to control those habits and strengthen my good habits such as having a solid routine, doing review and market research, taking profits at the right times, etc.
So maybe I can give some advice to some that are new to day trading, those who are feeling lost, or just in general thinking "...What the fuck..." I thought that every night for the first 6 months lol.
First of all, manage expectations. If you read my story of how I came to be a trader, you can see I had a false impression of trading in many aspects. Give yourself a realistic time horizon to how progress should be made. Do not set a monetary goal for yourself, or any time-based goal that is measured in your P/L. If you tell yourself, "I want to make X per day, X per week, or X per year" you're setting yourself up to feel like shit every single day when it's clear as the blue sky that you won't reach that goal anytime soon. As a matter of fact, it will appear you are moving further AWAY from that goal if you just focus on your P/L, which brings me to my next point.
You will lose money. In the beginning, most likely, you will lose money. I did it, you'll do it, the greatest Paul Tudor Jones did it. Trading is a skill that needs to be developed, and it is a process. Just look at it as paying your tuition to the market. Sim is fine but don't assume you have acquired this skill until you are adept at trading real money. So when you do make that leap, just trade small.
Just survive. Trade small. get the experience. Protect your capital. To reach break even on your bottom line is a huge accomplishment. In many ways, experience and screen time are the secret sauce.
Have a routine. This is very important. I actually will probably make a more in-depth post in the future about this if people want it. When I first started, I was overwhelmed with the feeling "What the fuck am I supposed to DO?" I felt lost. There's no boss to tell you how to be productive or how to find the right stocks, which is mostly a blessing, but a curse for new traders.
All that shit you see, don't believe all that bullshit. You know what I'm talking about. The bragposting, the clickbait Youtube videos, the ads preying on you. "I made X amount of money in a day and I'm fucking 19 lolz look at my Lamborghini" It's all a gimmick to sell you the dream. It's designed to poke right at your insecurities, that's marketing at it's finest. As for the bragposting on forums honestly, who cares. And I'm not pointing fingers on this forum, just any trading forum in general. They are never adding anything of value to the community in their posts. They never say this is how I did it. No, they just want you to think they're a genius. I can show you my $900 day trading the shit out of TSLA, but that doesn't tell the whole story. Gamblers never show you when they lose, you might never hear from those guys again because behind the scenes, they over-leveraged themselves and blew up. Some may actually be consistently profitable and the trades are 100% legit. That's fantastic. But again, I don't care, and you shouldn't either. You shouldn't compare yourself to others.
"Everyone's a genius in a bull market" Here's the thing.. Markets change. Edges disappear. Trading strategies were made by traders who traded during times when everything they did worked. Buy all the breakouts? Sure! It's the fucking tech bubble! Everything works! I'm sure all those typical setups used to work fantastically at some point in time. But the more people realize them, the less effective they are. SOMEONE has to be losing money on the opposite side of a winning trade, and who's willing to do that when the trade is so obvious? That being said, some things are obvious AND still work. Technical analysis works... sometimes. The caveat to that is, filters. You need to, in some way, filter out certain setups from others. For example, you could say, "I won't take a wedge pattern setup on an intraday chart unless it is in a higher time frame uptrend, without nearby resistance, and trading above average volume with news on that day."
Have a plan. If you can't describe your plan, you don't have one. Think in probabilities. You should think entirely in "if, then" scenarios. If X has happens, then Y will probably happen. "If BABA breaks this premarket support level on the open I will look for a pop up to short into."
Backtest. Most traders lose mainly because they think they have an edge but they don't. You read these books and all this stuff online telling you "this is a high probability setup" but do you know that for a fact? There's different ways to backtest, but I think the best way for a beginner is manual backtesting with a chart and an excel sheet. This builds up that screen time and pattern recognition faster. This video shows how to do that. Once I saw someone do it, it didn't seem so boring and awful as I thought it was.
Intelligence is not enough. You're smarter than most people, that's great, but that alone is not enough to make you money in trading necessarily. Brilliant people try and fail at this all the time, lawyers, doctors, surgeons, engineers.. Why do they fail if they're so smart? It's all a fucking scam. No, a number of reasons, but the biggest is discipline and emotional intelligence.
Journal every day. K no thanks, bro. That's fucking gay. That's how I felt when I heard this advice but really that is pride and laziness talking. This is the process you need to do to learn what works for you and what doesn't. Review the trades you took, what your plan was, what actually happened, how you executed. Identify what you did well and what you can work on. This is how you develop discipline and emotional intelligence, by monitoring yourself. How you feel physically and mentally, and how these states affect your decision-making.
Always be learning. Read as much as you can. Good quality books. Here's the best I've read so far;
Market Wizards -Jack Schwager
One Good Trade -Mike Bellafiore
The Daily Trading Coach -Bret Steenbarger
Psycho-cybernetics -Maxwell Maltz
Why You Win or Lose -Fred Kelly
The Art and Science of Technical Analysis -Adam Grimes
Dark Pools -Scott Patterson
Be nimble. Everyday I do my research on the symbols I'm trading and the fundamental news that's driving them. I might be trading a large cap that's gapping up with a beat on EPS and revenue and positive guidance. But if I see that stock pop up and fail miserably on the open amidst huge selling pressure, and I look and see the broader market tanking, guess what, I'm getting short, and that's just day trading. The movement of the market, on an intraday timeframe, doesn't have to make logical sense.
Adapt. In March I used to be able to buy a breakout on a symbol and swing it for the majority of the day. In the summer I was basically scalping on the open and being done for the day. Volatility changes, and so do my profit targets.
Be accountable. Be humble. Be honest. I take 100% responsibility for every dime I've lost or made in the market. It's not the market makers fault, it wasn't the HFTs, I pressed the button. I know my bad habits and I know my good habits.. my strengths/ my weaknesses.
Protect yourself from toxicity. Stay away from traders and people on forums who just have that negative mindset. That "can't be done" mentality. Day trading is a scam!! It can certainly be done. Prove it, you bastard. I'm posting to this particular forum because I don't see much of that here and apparently the mods to a good job of not tolerating it. As the mod wrote in the rules, they're most likely raging from a loss. Also, the Stocktwits mentality of "AAPL is going to TANK on the open! $180, here we come. $$$" , or the grandiose stories, "I just knew AMZN was going to go up on earnings. I could feel it. I went ALL IN. Options money, baby! ka-ching!$" Lol, that is so toxic to a new trader. Get away from that. How will you be able to remain nimble when this is your thought process?
Be good to yourself. Stop beating yourself up. You're an entrepreneur. You're boldly going where no man has gone before. You've got balls.
Acknowledge your mistakes, don't identify with them. You are not your mistakes and you are not your bad habits. These are only things that you do, and you can take action necessary to do them less.
It doesn't matter what people think. Maybe they think you're a fool, a gambler. You don't need their approval. You don't need to talk to your co-workers and friends about it to satisfy some subconscious plea for guidance; is this a good idea?
You don't need anyone's permission to become the person you want to be.
They don't believe in you? Fuck 'em. I believe in you.
submitted by indridcold91 to Daytrading [link] [comments]

[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis

[educational] Stretgies for day trading based on Technical Analysis

1. Breakout

Breakout strategies center around when the price clears a specified level on your chart, with increased volume. The breakout trader enters into a long position after the asset or security breaks above resistance. Alternatively, you enter a short position once the stock breaks below support.
After an asset or security trades beyond the specified price barrier, volatility usually increases and prices will often trend in the direction of the breakout.
You need to find the right instrument to trade. When doing this bear in mind the asset’s support and resistance levels. The more frequently the price has hit these points, the more validated and important they become.

Entry Points

This part is nice and straightforward. Prices set to close and above resistance levels require a bearish position. Prices set to close and below a support level need a bullish position.

Plan your exits

Use the asset’s recent performance to establish a reasonable price target. Using chart patterns will make this process even more accurate. You can calculate the average recent price swings to create a target. If the average price swing has been 3 points over the last several price swings, this would be a sensible target. Once you’ve reached that goal you can exit the trade and enjoy the profit.
https://preview.redd.it/0oj4a1xlvdh31.png?width=773&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f2aa07b0c7caeeb00c4f997c12e814abbd380da

2. Scalping

One of the most popular strategies is scalping. It’s particularly popular in the forex market, and it looks to capitalise on minute price changes. The driving force is quantity. You will look to sell as soon as the trade becomes profitable. This is a fast-paced and exciting way to trade, but it can be risky. You need a high trading probability to even out the low risk vs reward ratio.
Be on the lookout for volatile instruments, attractive liquidity and be hot on timing. You can’t wait for the market, you need to close losing trades as soon as possible.
https://preview.redd.it/dzaf7t1nvdh31.png?width=653&format=png&auto=webp&s=f3d96d74311de806c3809698df2a964e3eb4db5e

3. Momentum

Popular amongst trading strategies for beginners, this strategy revolves around acting on news sources and identifying substantial trending moves with the support of high volume. There is always at least one stock that moves around 20-30% each day, so there’s ample opportunity. You simply hold onto your position until you see signs of reversal and then get out.
Alternatively, you can fade the price drop. This way round your price target is as soon as volume starts to diminish.
This strategy is simple and effective if used correctly. However, you must ensure you’re aware of upcoming news and earnings announcements. Just a few seconds on each trade will make all the difference to your end of day profits.
https://preview.redd.it/z4r2o6covdh31.png?width=600&format=png&auto=webp&s=b054c77c4bc5978821e879eff73d613d728cb0cf

4. Reversal

Although hotly debated and potentially dangerous when used by beginners, reverse trading is used all over the world. It’s also known as trend trading, pull back trending and a mean reversion strategy.
This strategy defies basic logic as you aim to trade against the trend. You need to be able to accurately identify possible pullbacks, plus predict their strength. To do this effectively you need in-depth market knowledge and experience.
The ‘daily pivot’ strategy is considered a unique case of reverse trading, as it centers on buying and selling the daily low and high pullbacks/reverse.
https://preview.redd.it/4ya3txcpvdh31.png?width=776&format=png&auto=webp&s=f40216413b1376b2d6d5a67e4d09057f55be6ba1

5. Using Pivot Points

A day trading pivot point strategy can be fantastic for identifying and acting on critical support and/or resistance levels. It is particularly useful in the forex market. In addition, it can be used by range-bound traders to identify points of entry, while trend and breakout traders can use pivot points to locate key levels that need to break for a move to count as a breakout.

Calculating Pivot Points

A pivot point is defined as a point of rotation. You use the prices of the previous day’s high and low, plus the closing price of a security to calculate the pivot point.
Note that if you calculate a pivot point using price information from a relatively short time frame, accuracy is often reduced.
So, how do you calculate a pivot point?
  • Central Pivot Point (P) = (High + Low + Close) / 3
You can then calculate support and resistance levels using the pivot point. To do that you will need to use the following formulas:
  • First Resistance (R1) = (2*P) – Low
  • First Support (S1) = (2*P) – High
The second level of support and resistance is then calculated as follows:
  • Second Resistance (R2) = P + (R1-S1)
  • Second Support (S2) = P – (R1- S1)

Application

When applied to the FX market, for example, you will find the trading range for the session often takes place between the pivot point and the first support and resistance levels. This is because a high number of traders play this range.
It’s also worth noting, this is one of the systems & methods that can be applied to indexes too. For example, it can help form an effective S&P day trading strategy

6. Moving Average Crossover

You will need three moving average lines:
  • One set at 20 periods – This is your fast moving average
  • One set at 60 periods – This is your slow moving average
  • One set at 100 periods – This is your trend indicator
This is one of the moving averages strategies that generates a buy signal when the fast moving average crosses up and over the slow moving average. A sell signal is generated simply when the fast moving average crosses below the slow moving average.
So, You’ll open a position when the moving average line crosses in one direction and you’ll close the position when it crosses back the opposite way.
How can you establish there’s definitely a trend? You know the trend is on if the price bar stays above or below the 100-period line.

the source : https://www.daytrading.com/strategies
submitted by JalelTounsi to ethfinance [link] [comments]

Research is very important in Forex trading

In the trading business, you will need to study consistently. Sometimes, you must look for new trading strategies. Whereas sometimes, you may try to improve your errors in the trading plan. Either way, you need to spend a significant amount of time learning strategies and skills. Moreover, you must understand the market conditions too. With fundamental analysis, you must keep track of the price changes. Then when you will get an indication of a price change, technical analysis can be used to find appropriate entry spots for the trades. Aside from the market analysis, traders also do not have enough ideas about money management. So, consistent research on currency trading is necessary to develop your edge. Your Forex trading business may not provide big profit potential in the beginning but with an improved trading edge, you can manage it. And the most exciting thing is, profit potential will be consistent with an efficient trading strategy.
This article is for motivating to the new Singaporean traders to spend time on appropriate research. With patience and concentration, any trader can develop an effective trading plan. So, focus on one is important to execute trades securely. After you have mastered a safe trading approach, increase the profit potential with an improved trading plan.

Improve the market analysis skills

To place any size trade, you need to understand the market condition. An effective process is to do the fundamental analysis first and then technical analysis. The fundamental influences help to identify the possible price trends. But you need to improve your skills to use valid news sources. If the information is not right and you are approaching a trade, it cannot manage a profit potential. So, rookie traders will need to time and research to improve the fundamental skills. Just focus on the news related to the price driving catalysts to predict the volatility.
After the fundamental analysis, you also need to justify the market change with technical analysis skills. It is a calculative approach to justify the fundamental analysis. Moreover, you also get chances to position the trades properly. Using appropriate tools, you need to look for suitable retracement for the trades. The Fibonacci strategy is appropriate for this work. There are more important tools to be used for technical analysis. You need to learn about trend lines, pivot points, oscillators, indicators and chart patterns, etc. so, research and acquire knowledge on Forex market analysis.

Acquire knowledge about trading

There are more things needed for trading aside from the market analysis. If you just think of risk exposure, it will take months to develop a decent money management plan. Sometimes, rookie traders take a longer time than a month due to their negligence on risk exposure. To secure your trades from potential losses, it is important to manage the investment. You cannot trade with too big lots. According to the expert traders, a 2% risk per trade and a 1:10 leverage is enough to execute trades in Forex.
After the money management, you need to focus on the profit targets. It must be set according to your trading method. If you choose 5R of profit while trading with scalping or day trading, majority of the trades will return potential losses. Big profit targets are for long term methods like the swing and the position trading process. If you do not research, our mind would not set the right profit target. So, you must spend a significant amount of time learning about currency trading.

Find appropriate entries and exits

With efficient market analysis, every trader must place the trades properly. It is another fact for a secured trading business aside from the money management. You need to scale the trades properly and find a solid trade setup. Without confirmation from the market analysis, you cannot place any trades. Your trading money will be unsecured if you place a random trade for a random signal. So, look for valid entry and exit points for the trades. Improve your skills with efficient market analysis strategies.
submitted by dwaynebuzzell to tradingfx [link] [comments]

Statistical methods for Forex?

So, I am trying to be more precise with my trading. I was looking in the wiki here, but the books mentioned, and the general outline does not mention statistical analysis for Forex, or trading in general.
A brief overview of my current progress: I started with the standard route to trading: reading books/articles on TA patterns, indicators, heuristics etc. to guide my reasoning for opening a position. Initially, it went well. I even wrote some EAs and one of them was sufficient enough to book some profits. Along the way, I became aware of basic understanding of fundamentals and FA. Then, I got greedy, started to "gamble" with currency pairs that were too risky. Then lost it all, made it back, lost it again, finally made it back. Learnt some lessons along the way, and the greed impulse is sufficiently eradicated after that whole trauma. And it's not even been a year!
Now, partly because of my professional background, and partly because of the experience for almost a year, I find that this whole TA stuff is not sufficient, even when vaguely paired with FA (guessing where the market will go, based on interest rate decisions, GDP, PMI, central bank mandate, interviews, policies, political conditions, reading qualitative books on specific economies). I have a qualitative strategy for now, based on simple MAs and pivots/SR levels.
At the same time, people say that "no one can predict what will happen next in markets." Which is true and all, but what about a probabilistic, quantitative idea of where the market is heading?
Is there any hope with regression analysis, or some advanced probability calculus course, that helps with trading, or even Forex trading specifically? Any books that have helped any traders here?
Currently, I am reading Evidence-Based Technical Analysis and Introduction to Statistical Learning. EBTA is alright, not yet giving me much precise ground. ISL is a general textbook, which I am reading just for the fun of it. Hopefully, it will be a good foundation for developing future strategies.
submitted by digitalfakir to Forex [link] [comments]

4 things you should know that will make you a better trader

Hi Redditors, This is a content that I wrote that I hope it will help you in your trader! Read on :)

Knowing your Commitment

Being honest about your commitment to Forex is very important. If you are working 8-5 daily — it’s already 7pm when you are home — and the strategy you are using, require you to be in front of your computer for 5 hours waiting for signal then you might want to change to another strategy. As you may find committing to this strategy in a long run impossible or you have to change a certain part of your lifestyle to compensate time for trading.
Sort your priorities before coming up with a schedule for the trading strategy you plan to use. This will help you to have a better organization and balance in both trading and your personal life. This way, you do not have to sacrifice your top priorities.

Mindset

Anything can happen any time when it comes to trading!
When you are trading with real money, adjust your stop loss to a comfortable level, in the way you do not have to worry even if you lose. It varies depending on your risk appetite: I set my stop loss to 2% of my account per trade, while some people set their stop-loss at 10% of their account. Previously when I set my stop loss level at 5% of my account, I realized I was in constant fear when the trade was in the Red zone (losing money). That is when I know I have to lessen my stop loss.
Having said that, you need to know it takes time before the market can hit your take profit.
You have to know that trading forex cannot make you an overnight millionaire — it is about being consistent. Likewise, you don’t expect to hit the gym for just a week and become the next Mr. Olympia. Forex is all about constantly keeping track of how your strategy is reacting to the current market, and knowing when to change and where to change. This is why I recommend you to keep a journal to record all the trades that you have done.

Risk: Reward ratio

The Risk and Reward ratio is one of the primary factors that will make you a profitable trader. The ratio emphases on how willing you are to risk to achieve your take profit. For example, if your R: R is 1: 2 and the Pivot Bar Strategy (GBP/JPY) is a 40pip: 80pip, you know that with every 2 losses you need 1 winning trade to break-even. Similarly, if your strategy only has 50% chance of being correct (equivalent to a coin toss), you will have a winning strategy right there. (Let’s do the math!) With every 10 trades you make — 5 wins (400pips) and 5 losses (200pips) — you have an overall profit of 200pips after deducting all your losses,
This is all part of your risk management, and all good traders know it is not how good you can make profit, but how well you can manage risk that will make you a profitable trader In a long run.

Edge

Many people say that speculators (Trader who trade short-term time-frame) are gamblers, which I agree to a small extent: we trade with the odds in our favour like how player count cards¹ in blackjack. In the same manner, when the odds are in our favour, we have an edge against the house.
So let’s talk about the roulette table where the house has an edge against the player. Many may think that the roulette table is a 50/50 game, well is not. Because of the 0 and 00, this makes the roulette table have an edge over players. Let’s do the math, you only bet on colours (Black or Red) the chances of you hitting is 18/38 that’s approximately 47.37%. The casino and because of the 0 and 00 the casino have an edge of 2.63%, this number might seem small but it kills. If you would gamble with a capital of $100 and $20 for every bet, the odds are you are not going to win big in the long run or you might even lose it all.
What makes forex different? When you have the correct mindset, proper risk management (Risk: Reward ratio) and you test your strategy before using it on the live market. You will have an edge, is definitely not easy getting everything right, if it is, everybody will quit their day job and trade. Forex is not for the faint-hearted, you have to put in the effort to be a profitable trader.

I am still working towards on becoming a profitable trader and I hope you would embark on this journey with me. We can learn and explore how we can all be profitable traders in the forex market. My next content post will be teaching you on how you can back-test your strategy and journaling.




  1. count cards - Card game strategy in blackjack that players use to decrease the house edge by keeping a tally of all the high and low valued cards seen by the player. It allows players to bet more with less risk when the count gives them an advantage and minimize their loss when the count is not a favourable one.
submitted by ForexGOAT to Forex [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 25, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Nov 27, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

The 5 Essential Things Every Trader Should Know

Forex trading online like any other kind of trading must also be done scientifically and those who do this tend to make profits. It indeed is true that Forex trading online makes us wonder how on earth those that went before us managed without a computer; however, it is also true that they had to work more than we do. Interestingly, this new tech has given us the opportunity to make higher profits than anyone would have thought ever. Interestingly enough, you have as many online tools as you need to keep constantly in touch with your investments and strategies when trading Forex online. For beginners, it is always the best idea to have access to the right trading tools like pivot point calculator, profit and loss calculator, Fibonacci calculator, etc.

A significant boom can be seen in the financial transactions that are gaining more and more importance and value in every domain. The demand for the financial transaction in different currencies increasing day after day and people are looking for some of the best ways that can help in saving some more on transactions. However, with a significant boom in the financial transactions, business and tourism industry along with other industry verticals are soaring, leading banks and financial sector has also boosted and enhanced their services to match the pace and to provide the best solutions and support to customers worldwide.

Not forget to mention the timings and working procedure of banks that has been also improved. With the demand of currency exchange and other financial services increasing day after day, the assistance of English Speaking staff has been also increased to help international clients in foreign transactions, even in different locations to the world.

Transaction in different currencies has also resulted in some good and some bad outcomes. Some countries levy transaction fees on the international banks for the money transfer. Users or customers are supposed to check the rate before transacting large amounts. Not forget to mention the negotiable rates that are offered by banks along with fixed rate facilities.

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submitted by lavanya111 to u/lavanya111 [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 11, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 04, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

r/Stocks Technicals Tuesday - Dec 18, 2018

Feel free to talk about technical analysis here (not argue against it), but before you ask any question make sure you see the following information:
Technical analysis (TA) uses historical price movements, real time data, indicators based on math and/or statistics, and charts; all of which help measure the trajectory of a security. TA can also be used to interpret the actions of other market participants and predict their actions:
Measure: Is the security's price trending, has it dipped or is it a falling knife? Interpret: Does the current price mean investors think it's undervalued or overvalued; when did they buy/sell more and why? Predict: If price reaches a certain point, will there be a rally or get rejected?
The main benefit to TA is that everything shows up in the price (commonly known as priced in): All news, investor sentiment, and changes to fundamentals are reflected in a security's price.
TA is best used for short term trading, but can also be used for long term.
Intro to technical analysis by Stockcharts chartschool and their article on candlesticks
Terminology
Useful indicators
Methods or Systems
Strategies: See the TA wiki here as this will be a work in progress, feel free to reply with your own strategy.
See our past daily discussions here. Also links for: Technicals Tuesday, Options Trading Thursday, and Fundamentals Friday.
submitted by AutoModerator to stocks [link] [comments]

Technical Traders or those wanting to learn more about it. Share your technical setups here.

Hi all. Being new on Reddit I see beginning traders asking many questions that I did before I began trading, as I'm sure we all asked. I just wanted to share my technical setups and would love others to share as well. As any full time trader could tell you, if you don't have set rules to trade by, and emotionally trade you will lose. What I'm going to share doesn't account for sticking to my personal rules of trading, and this is something you can only learn with practice. It goes without saying, but never just jump right into any strategy without practicing first. Most trading softwares should have a live realtime practice version.
Onto the technicals:
I only trade using BollingerBands, SMA (Simple Moving Average) and Pivot Points. I'm using TDAmeritrade Think or Swim, but any trading software will have these technicals. You can also use these settings for short term day trading (I like 5 and 10 min time frames) daily, weekly, monthly trading, etc. Without outlining my settings in text I have uploaded all images of my settings for BollingerBands, Pivots, and SMA to an imgur album here [http://imgur.com/a/0bRJh]. I've also added images of this strategy working on different time frames, with stocks, futures, and forex because we all trade different items. Even 2 from today trading Platinum and Silver...Silver was good today!!
The Strategy I Use:
1st - Only buy when price action is above the pivot point (midline/pink line) on the charts I've uploaded, for those that don't know what pivot points are. Conversely, only sell when price action is below the pivot point.
2nd - Buy when price action is above the pivot, the SMA crosses above the BollingerBand midline, and price closes above the midline as well.
3rd - Sell when price action is below the pivot, the SMA crosses below the BollingerBand midline, and price closes below the midline as well.
When to cover or sell for profit?
You want to let your runners run and dump the losers asap, but how? When day trading I personally use the pivot points as target price goals. If I buy just over the pivot point, I'll let price run to R1 (first red line) or try to let it, then watch price action. If price moves and closes above R1, I may hold until R2 and so on. I also watch price as it pertains to the BollingerBands, if price breaks outside the BollingerBand I'll watch closely and may sell depending on the next candle. This is where your personal rules come in. If you get hung up by how much money you NEED to make it could be bad. Be more concerned with watching price action, candles, etc. You'll never hit the total price move.
It goes without saying, but when you are shorting just do the opposite of the above.
Also, people like even numbers, maybe even machines do. If a stock is at $24.35 and moving up, human psychology may tend to let this run up to $25. Not a given, just something to think about.
My longer term daily, weekly, monthly, snapshot images of stocks, futures, forex doesn't show the pivots, but you can just change the pivot point "day setting" to weekly, etc to see them.
Lastly, get out of the trade on the buy side when the SMA and price closes below the BB midline, and on the short side when the SMA and price closes above the BB midline. Don't be eager to just jump right into the next trade. Stick to your own rules and be patient for the right setups. I hope this has helped any new trader save time and narrow your focus. Good luck and I look forward to everyone's feedback and personal technical strategies.
submitted by sprichie17 to stocks [link] [comments]

A Forensic Approach to Trading: Examining the FOMC release.

It's a truism in trading that your strategies are worthless unless they pass the test of the market. They either make money in the long run, or they don't. We have a hard, factual standard we can hold matters to.
When it comes to theories about what is happening in the market, it's much harder to apply similar standards because many things don't appear on the charts. However, this often means we fail to even try.
This is bad practice. We should be willing to challenge our own, and other's theories about the market, as well as investigate out-of-the-box theories, by comparing them to available chart evidence.
Edit: squitstoomuch has drawn my attention to the fact that my analysis and understanding of the situation has some serious, if not fatal flaws. Rather than delete the post, I'll leave it up because looking at other people's mistakes is often useful, and it's still a good idea to compare your ideas to the charts and see if the market validates them. Grossly incorrect stuff has strike throughs, the rest still stands.
For example, a very common analysis you will hear after the combination of rate decision and Governor press conference is that the overall direction of movement can be accounted for by what was said in the conference.
This is something you can assess by looking at the charts.
Proposition 1: The USD fell largely due to Yellen's comments implying future rate trajectories
Consider:
M1 EURUSD http://i.imgur.com/MS7ceQf.png
M1 USDJPY http://i.imgur.com/JeHI8qw.png
You can see that the majority of the price movement against the USD happens within the first ten minutes after the rate release, and within that, the majority of the move happened within the first minute.
Logic dictates that NONE of this movement was related to the content of the speech, simply because the speech had not been given yet.
You can also see that although there was movement throughout the speech, it managed to only depress the USD an additional third compared to the rate release.
How you choose to interpret this is up to you, but at least you can now frame the 'it was Yellen's speech that did it' theories in the context of some irrefutable evidence.
My personal interpretation is that whilst the speech content strongly influences price, and did further depress the USD, it was not the original motivator for the drop. Nor was it the main determinant of the magnitude of the drop in the value of the USD, because both of those happened before she ever opened her mouth. ~~
Let's look at some more propositions.
Proposition 2: You should trade what happened last time
USDJPY H1 chart from 14th December 2016, the previous time rates were raised. FOMC raises Fed Fund Rate, USD goes:
http://i.imgur.com/qL7upT7.png
... up. So if you had simply looked at what happened last time, and then bought this time, you would have lost money. I'm going to strongly recommend that nobody short the USD for the next rate hike just because it went down this time!
Proposition 3: You could have just predicted the movement on technicals.
Well...
http://i.imgur.com/zYOlVmw.png
... as it turns out, one of the most basic, elementary technical strategies (trendline + horizontal resistance) would have gotten you in nicely this time, at least on USDJPY. The EURUSD set-up was a bit more advanced, but still straightforward in the context of the essentially guaranteed rate decision.
http://i.imgur.com/L8B7s1K.png
Interestingly, pivot points perfectly predicted the extent of the day's price movement this time round.
USDJPY (D)
http://i.imgur.com/emY42Nn.png
EURUSD (H1)
http://i.imgur.com/fD8UDss.png
(Note the different timeframes. This may just be a case of coincidence, but I will say that ever since I put them on my charts, they've been very useful for exactly this sort of thing: how far the market will go before a pause or a retrace).
Proposition 4: the market is irrational and unpredictable
I don't have any strong evidence to disprove this, but I will say that the NFP price action was a big red flag that something like this was going to happen on FOMC day, and that there are clear, strongly repeatable analytical approaches that predicted an outcome like this. Many people were not the least bit surprised.
.
Finally, I'd like to suggest that this is much more than just "pricing in". I don't have the time nor patience to go through my archives and dig out every "priced in" economic release that I've ever tried to trade, so I'll leave the evidence hunt for those more curious.
But in my experience, when the market has priced an event in, and that event happens, the usual result is ... nothing. This is what 'pricing in' means, that price is already correct in regards to that information.
If anything actually happens, it's usually counter-intuitive, and that means that the big banks are using the event to hustle price about.
As a footnote, that's not the only way they hustle price. One thing they also like to use talking heads to influence market sentiment: http://news.forexlive.com/!/goldman-sachs-see-a-second-fed-hike-in-june-20170310 (This bulletin is saying there will be faster rate hikes, ie investors should buy USD. You might wonder why Goldman would risk their reputation by putting their name behind directions they're not trading, and the easy answer is that nobody remembers these bulletins, but everyone remembers the end of year profits of the bank. Bank mouthpieces aren't there to help the clients, they're there to help the bank)
submitted by alotmorealots to Forex [link] [comments]

R-Breaker trading strategy

R-Breaker trading strategy
FMZ
In the Forex trading system, the Pivot Points trading method is a classic trading strategy. Pivot Points is a very simple resistance support system. Based on yesterday's highest, lowest and closing prices, seven price points are calculated, including one pivot point, three resistance levels and three support levels.
The resistance line and the support line are one of the tools that are often used in technical analysis, and the role of the support line and the pressure line can be mutually transformed. From a trading point of view, Pivot Point is like a combat map, pointing out the support and resistance price that should be paid attention to by investors. As for the specific tactical cooperation, Pivot Point does not specifically stipulate it, depending on the investor itself.
For this trading strategy. Investors can flexibly formulate strategies based on intraday prices and related trends in pivot points, support levels and resistance levels, and can even manage position adjustments based on key points.
Schematic diagram of the R-Breaker strategy
www.fmz.com
R-Breaker calculated six price points based on yesterday's price as the reference price for today's intraday trading, but only one pivot point less than the Pivot Points setting. The difference between R-Breaker and Pivot Points is that the parameter setting makes the distance between the six prices more flexible, and R-Breaker clarifies the specific trading strategy.
According to the intraday price movement, the trend tracking and reversal strategy is adopted at the same time. The area with the color background in the picture can be regarded as the observation area. When the highest price in the day hits the Ssetup and falls back, and falls below the resistance line of the reference Senter, the reverse strategy is adopted,
that is, the short position is opened at the point S1; if there are no position holding, if the intraday price breaks through the resistance line of Bbreak, the trend tracking strategy is adopted, that is, the long position is opened at B2. Similarly, the B1 point is reversed and the S2 point is for open short position.
Since the trigger condition for opening a position involves multiple price positions and is sensitive to intraday price movements, the strategy applies to trading on a one-minute time period. In addition, the number of transactions triggered by this strategy is not many, regardless of the conditions of the cross-cycle.
Source Code:
www.fmz.com
For more information, please see:https://www.fmz.com/bbs-topic/2269
submitted by FmzQuant to u/FmzQuant [link] [comments]

A trading method for any commodity (or any market for that matter)

Many traders specialize in some asset class (stocks, futures, forex) and have some certain type of trade that they look for. They either trade fundamentals, fibs, pivot points, volume profile, or some combination of indicators. While this is all well and good, it typically only explains some of the moves, and if more than that, it is almost always after the fact analysis (not something you would see in real time). I once asked a great stock trader if their strategy was “robust” and they looked at me with a puzzled look. So I followed it up with: can you apply your strategy to futures? forex? and they quickly answered “No”. At this point, I pointed out to them that their strategy was not robust and subject to edge erosion. Edge erosion is what happens when you find something that works “now” or perhaps in the past for certain periods of time, but as the market evolves the strategy has periods of no longer working. Good traders answer to this is having a plethora of different strategies designed for different market conditions, but all of them are subject to edge erosion and require constant maintenance over time. I told this trader what I wrote above, and they quickly told me I was wrong, and that no strategy is suitable for all markets. At this point, and argument was bound to unfold as traders are very protective of their eroding edges, no matter how great they are and no matter how much they want to believe it will last forever….it simply will not. Developing an edge that can withstand any market, on any time frame, that explains each and every move is a daunting task. However, it’s as simple as supply and demand, and knowing how it works on the bigger picture all the way down to the smallest of time frames. Charts and the rest located here: https://simplefuturestrading.wordpress.com/2017/08/17/is-your-method-robust/
submitted by SimpleFutures to Commodities [link] [comments]

Pivot indicator questions

What's up Forex,
I've always had classic pivot points on my charts using D1 data, but I read something about using Fibonacci pivots instead and so I had a look and lo and behold there's a whole bunch of options!
So my question is this: for those of you that utilise the pivot indicator as part of your strategy, how have you got it set up?
Cheers!
submitted by Phluxxed to Forex [link] [comments]

Advice on developing a strategy

Hi, i'm new to forex (and general) trading and i thought i would post to ask advice on which strategy to use. After much research, the impression i got that trading is mainly psychological in that one has to stick to their strategy, not deviate from it and maintain objective.
I have been looking at a basic strategy that uses support and resistance created by pivot points to trade with the trend (ie if market is on a downward trend shown by a 20day moving average only short).
What is the best way to see if the trend is going to reverse? is it simply to learn chart patterns and remaining vigilant? I have been doing the stops by the previous day's high/low to minimise risk; is this correct?
Thanks
submitted by hheesshh to Forex [link] [comments]

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submitted by tranlinhphuong1 to InfinityScalperReview [link] [comments]

**Pivot Trader Pro Review - Pivot Trader Pro Software**

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submitted by ahadil to ChristmasProfits [link] [comments]

Forex Pivot Point Strategy that Works Urban Forex Scalp Pivot Points MACD Divergence Strategy Simple Pivot Point Forex Strategy (Using Fibonacci Pivots) Daily Fibonacci Pivot Forex Trading Strategy Pivots Strategy Success Story with Ciara Blackmon - Her Steps to Daily Consistent Pips!!! - IML

9# Pivot Strategy. 10# Pivot Intraday. 11# Daily 20 pip. 12# Murrey Math and Elliott waves system 13# Fibopivot Channel Strategy 14# Pivots Levels, Ema Channel and MACD. 15# Pivot Point Method. 16# T rade Forex using Pivot Points 17# Pips Swing fx strategy 18# Scalping with pivot levels The final strategy with Pivot lines is taking up counter-trend trades along support and resistance, particularly at R2/S2. At this line, the Bulls and the Bears are going to dig in (the Bears at R2 and the Bulls at S2), defend hard, and with great probability launch a counterattack. Forex Pivot strategy is one of the simplest and effective trade techniques for the high intraday volatility markets. Forex the Pivot Points trading Strategy at levels are applied to the technical analysis from thirtieth years of the 20th century and represent the turning points of the market allowing to build strong lines of support/resistance. Learn what Pivot Points are & discover how to successfully use them as part of your Forex trading strategy in 2020. A forex pivot point strategy could very well be a trader’s best friend as far as identifying levels to develop a bias, place stops and identify potential profit targets for a trade. Pivot points

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Forex Pivot Point Strategy that Works

Learning Forex Pivot Strategy - i Markets Live - Duration: 13:05. Jay Take Profits 34,511 views. 13:05. Mix Play all Mix - UKspreadbetting YouTube; Best FX ... How to Use Pivot Point Forex Strategy For Trading Set Up? - Duration: 4:00. ArrowPips Forex Signals 1,395 views. 4:00. Swing Trade Using Finviz Beginners - Duration: 13:44. Forex Pivot Points with Logic ... Pivot Points Strategies and Setups Part 2 - Duration: 11:45. UKspreadbetting 26,594 views. 11:45. How To Trade Divergences in Forex - Duration: 1:11:16. Learning Forex Pivot Strategy - i Markets Live - Duration: 13:05. Jay Take Profits 33,770 views. 13:05. 95% Winning Forex Trading Formula - Beat The Market Maker📈 - Duration: 37:53. Power Pivots is my favourite strategy/tool to make money in the forex markets! Especially with volatility! In fact, if you Google me, you will find a video of me 15 years back using this exact ...