Synthetix DEX: How binary options work | June 30, 2020 at 11:51AM
We’re extremely excited that with today’s Acrux release, binary options are now live on Synthetix.Exchange! Binary options are a type of options contract that provides a fixed return based on a binary outcome in the future. They pay out on a certain date if the price of a chosen asset is above (or below) a level specified at the creation of the option. This post will explain how this new feature works and how to get involved.
Binary options explained
A binary option is a contract that allows someone to make a trade on a yes/no outcome. For example, a market could be created on the following statement: BTC will be above 10k USD on 31st December 2020. This statement will be either true or false. True is represented by “long” options and false is represented by “short” options. In “parimutuel” binary options — the kind that Synthetix uses — the each side of the market pays out the other side. For example, if the “BTC over 10k” market attracted a total of 10,000 sUSD, where 33% of bidders went short, and the long side is correct, the long side splits the 3,333 sUSD from the short side. In this case, this market determined that there was a 67% probability that BTC would be above 10k on December 31, 2020, and therefore long bidders received 3,333 sUSD for the 6,667 sUSD they supplied. All binary options markets are denominated in sUSD, and that is the only currency used to purchase options.
Binary options use a floating auction mechanism, which means the price of each side is in flux until the Bidding phase is over. In other words, the state of the long and short skew at the time you make a bid does not affect what the payout will be when the market is resolved. What is relevant to the eventual payout is the long and short skew when the Bidding phase is over, and of course whether the binary option is true or false. When you make a bid and purchase an option, you are putting your sUSD into the total pool of funds, and choosing a side. To illustrate, let’s use the previous example of “BTC over 10k,” with a total of 6,667 sUSD long and 3,333 sUSD short when the Bidding phase ends. If BTC is over 10k the long side of the market is successful, and shares the 3,333 sUSD from the short side, i.e. $2 of long options receives $3. In summary, when bidding, users will not know how the market will eventually settle as they will only be able to view the current size of each side. Users should monitor the skew throughout the Bidding phase to ensure it continues to reflect the probability they assign to the outcome.
Binary options support markets for all the non-inverse Synths in the Synthetix ecosystem, as well as SNX. Here is the full list of assets supported:
Bidding on open markets
To get started, head to Synthetix.Exchange and in the “Options” tab you can view all the current open markets. You can join options markets that have already been created. This page displays how much time is remaining in each market’s current phase. The “strike price” this page refers to is the price prediction for each market, e.g. the market for “BTC over 10k” has a strike price of 10,000. There are three phases an options market can be in: Bidding, Trading, or Maturity.
The Bidding phase
This phase allows you to place a long or short bid in a floating auction. The current “Market Sentiment” for that market (i.e. the current spread of long/short bids) determines the price of making a new bid and the eventual payout, though these will continue to shift as Market Sentiment shifts. During the Bidding phase it is possible to withdraw a bid, but there is a 5% fee to do so. You can make as many bids on either side from the same wallet as you like.
The Trading phase
At the start of the Trading phase, the current options are fixed and the spread of long/short bids will determine the payouts for each side should it win. Bidders on either side are issued ERC-20 tokens representing their options, which they can claim. If you claim these tokens, they can be traded OTC or via AMM markets. If you don’t wish to trade or move them, you do not need to claim these tokens.
The Maturity phase
The Maturity phase represents the time after the option has matured, e.g. for the example market “BTC > 10k on 31st December 2020,” the Maturity is 31st December 2020. Once a market has reached the Maturity phase, you can “exercise” your in the money options if you have any. The Maturity phase only lasts for six months (this is configurable by submitting an SCCP) — this means that any options must be exercised before the expiry date or they will be lost. The current plan for any unclaimed sUSD is that it will be awarded to whoever closes an expired market (there is currently no UI for closing markets). This feature is not yet live, but you will soon be able to view all of your options in any phase on the Assets page, (except for options you have already exercised).
Creating a market
To create a market, on the Options page of Synthetix.Exchange there’s a large “Create A New Market” option. It takes you to a page where you can select an asset, a strike price, the relevant dates, and the long/short price skew. The long/short price skew is the market creator’s expected probability (i.e. their initial belief about the odds). This determines the initial price of each option, though this will shift once people start purchasing options on either side. The maximum skew possible at market creation is 95% to 5% on either side. By choosing an opening price skew, the market creator has options on either side, as if they set an 80% long and 20% short opening price skew, their options are 80% long and 20% short. There is a minimum amount required to create a market. To begin with, this is 1000 sUSD, though this is configurable by SCCP.
Apart from the mentioned 5% fee for withdrawing a bid, there are two kinds of fees. Together, they add up to 1% of the total market volume, and are paid out when a market reaches the Maturity phase. 0.2% goes to the market creator, and 0.8% goes to SNX stakers (i.e. to the feePool) to be claimed in that fee period. The size of the fees paid to the market creator and the SNX feePool is not affected by which option is successful — it’s a proportion of the total bids. This is the first trading feature that is always net-positive for SNX stakers — they receive fees for enabling this feature, and don’t take on debt risk as they do with the spot market Synths.
Markets at launch
At launch market creation will be open to any sUSD holder. The Synthetix grantsDAO will fund 5,000 SNX to go to the community’s favourite market created in the first two weeks as determined via governance poll. Come join us in Discord if you have any feedback or questions! 📖Continue reading.. 👉Register on Synthetix DEX
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''' BINARY OPTIONS EXPLAINED Binary options are traded on an asset or market. For example, a stock price or foreign exchange rate. The main difference between more traditional investment, and binaries, is the speed of the result for the trade, usually within minutes of you placing the trade you will have your result. Obviously, there is a risk, as with any type of stock or trade type of investment. As with other investments, the trader must first decide if they think the value of the asset they are trading will rise or fall. It’s a very simple and quick process, the trader speculates on whether the price will be higher or lower than the current price, at a specific time in the future. To find out more information visit: [link]1 If you are interested in what you read, you can follow a link on the site to open a FREE demo account, to practice trading in Binary, forex or Bitcoin. ''' Free binary advice website, including Forex & Bitcoin...Open a FREE demo account today via 8ball-binary.com Go1dfish undelete link unreddit undelete link Author: 8BallBinary 1: www.8ball-binary.com
[Repost] [Academic] Texting in Conflict Resolution and Discussing Sensitive Issues across relationship types. "please explain" questions are optional. 75 Questions.Approx. 20-30 min to complete. (18+, M/F/Non-binary)
So i looked up binary options and it seems like you get huge returns such as 70% but also huge risk. My question is if binary pays out higher if you have the position for longer. For example i could set the timer to 3 hours with 75% payout with it reaching 1% or more. Does making the timer 24 hours with it set to reach more than 10% overnight increase payout since in this scenerio it is more unlikley therefore needs better payout.
Wall Street Week Ahead for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020
Good Saturday afternoon to all of you here on StockMarket. I hope everyone on this sub made out pretty nicely in the market this past week, and is ready for the new trading week ahead. Here is everything you need to know to get you ready for the trading week beginning June 29th, 2020.
Fragile economic recovery faces first big test with June jobs report in the week ahead - (Source)
The second half of 2020 is nearly here, and now it’s up to the economy to prove that the stock market was right about a sharp comeback in growth. The first big test will be the June jobs report, out on Thursday instead of its usual Friday release due to the July 4 holiday. According to Refinitiv, economists expect 3 million jobs were created, after May’s surprise gain of 2.5 million payrolls beat forecasts by a whopping 10 million jobs. “If it’s stronger, it will suggest that the improvement is quicker, and that’s kind of what we saw in May with better retail sales, confidence was coming back a little and auto sales were better,” said Kevin Cummins, chief U.S. economist at NatWest Markets. The second quarter winds down in the week ahead as investors are hopeful about the recovery but warily eyeing rising cases of Covid-19 in a number of states. Stocks were lower for the week, as markets reacted to rising cases in Texas, Florida and other states. Investors worry about the threat to the economic rebound as those states move to curb some activities. The S&P 500 is up more than 16% so far for the second quarter, and it is down nearly 7% for the year. Friday’s losses wiped out the last of the index’s June gains. “I think the stock market is looking beyond the valley. It is expecting a V-shaped economic recovery and a solid 2021 earnings picture,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA. He expects large-cap company earnings to be up 30% next year, and small-cap profits to bounce back by 140%. “I think the second half needs to be a ‘show me’ period, proving that our optimism was justified, and we’ll need to see continued improvement in the economic data, and I think we need to see upward revisions to earnings estimates,” Stovall said. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, said she expects the recovery will not be as smooth as some expect, particularly considering the resurgence of virus outbreaks in sunbelt states and California. “Now as I watch what’s happening I think it’s more likely to be rolling Ws,” rather than a V, she said. “It’s not just predicated on a second wave. I’m not sure we ever exited the first wave.” Even without actual state shutdowns, the virus could slow economic activity. “That doesn’t mean businesses won’t shut themselves down, or consumers won’t back down more,” she said.
In the second half of the year, the market should turn its attention to the election, but Sonders does not expect much reaction to it until after Labor Day. RealClearPolitics average of polls shows Democrat Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 10 percentage points, and the odds of a Democratic sweep have been rising. Biden has said he would raise corporate taxes, and some strategists say a sweep would be bad for business, due to increased regulation and higher taxes. Trump is expected to continue using tariffs, which unsettles the market, though both candidates are expected to take a tough stance on China. “If it looks like the Senate stays Republican than there’s less to worry about in terms of policy changes,” Sonders said. “I don’t think it’s ever as binary as some people think.” Stovall said a quick study shows that in the four presidential election years back to 1960, where the first quarter was negative, and the second quarter positive, stocks made gains in the second half. Those were 1960 when John Kennedy took office, 1968, when Richard Nixon won; 1980 when Ronald Reagan’s was elected to his first term; and 1992, the first win by Bill Clinton. Coincidentally, in all of those years, the opposing party gained control of the White House.
The stocks market’s strong second-quarter showing came after the Fed and Congress moved quickly to inject the economy with trillions in stimulus. That unlocked credit markets and triggered a stampede by companies to restructure or issue debt. About $2 trillion in fiscal spending was aimed at consumers and businesses, who were in sudden need of cash after the abrupt shutdown of the economy. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin both testify before the House Financial Services Committee Tuesday on the response to the virus. That will be important as markets look ahead to another fiscal package from Congress this summer, which is expected to provide aid to states and local governments; extend some enhanced benefits for unemployment, and provide more support for businesses. “So much of it is still so fluid. There are a bunch of fiscal items that are rolling off. There’s talk about another fiscal stimulus payment like they did last time with a $1,200 check,” said Cummins. Strategists expect Congress to bicker about the size and content of the stimulus package but ultimately come to an agreement before enhanced unemployment benefits run out at the end of July. Cummins said state budgets begin a new year July 1, and states with a critical need for funds may have to start letting workers go, as they cut expenses. The Trump administration has indicated the jobs report Thursday could help shape the fiscal package, depending on what it shows. The federal supplement to state unemployment benefits has been $600 a week, but there is opposition to extending that, and strategists expect it to be at least cut in half. The unemployment rate is expected to fall to 12.2% from 13.3% in May. Cummins said he had expected 7.2 million jobs, well above the consensus, and an unemployment rate of 11.8%. As of last week, nearly 20 million people were collecting state unemployment benefits, and millions more were collecting under a federal pandemic aid program. “The magnitude here and whether it’s 3 million or 7 million is kind of hard to handicap to begin with,” Cummins said. Economists have preferred to look at unemployment claims as a better real time read of employment, but they now say those numbers could be impacted by slow reporting or double filing. “There’s no clarity on how you define the unemployed in the Covid 19 environment,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at MUFG Union Bank. “If there’s 30 million people receiving insurance, unemployment should be above 20%.
This past week saw the following moves in the S&P:
The economy is moving in the right direction, as many economic data points are coming in substantially better than what the economists expected. From May job gains coming in more than 10 million higher than expected and retail sales soaring a record 18%, how quickly the economy is bouncing back has surprised nearly everyone. “As good as the recent economic data has been, we want to make it clear, it could still take years for the economy to fully come back,” explained LPL Financial Senior Market Strategist Ryan Detrick. “Think of it like building a house. You get all the big stuff done early, then some of the small things take so much longer to finish; I’m looking at you crown molding.” Here’s the hard truth; it might take years for all of the jobs that were lost to fully recover. In fact, during the 10 recessions since 1950, it took an average of 30 months for lost jobs to finally come back. As the LPL Chart of the Day shows, recoveries have taken much longer lately. In fact, it took four years for the jobs lost during the tech bubble recession of the early 2000s to come back and more than six years for all the jobs lost to come back after the Great Recession. Given many more jobs were lost during this recession, it could takes many years before all of them indeed come back.
The economy is going the right direction, and if there is no major second wave outbreak it could surprise to the upside. Importantly, this economic recovery will still be a long and bumpy road.
Nasdaq - Russell Spread Pulling the Rubber Band Tight
The Nasdaq has been outperforming every other US-based equity index over the last year, and nowhere has the disparity been wider than with small caps. The chart below compares the performance of the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 over the last 12 months. While the performance disparity is wide now, through last summer, the two indices were tracking each other nearly step for step. Then last fall, the Nasdaq started to steadily pull ahead before really separating itself in the bounce off the March lows. Just to illustrate how wide the gap between the two indices has become, over the last six months, the Nasdaq is up 11.9% compared to a decline of 15.8% for the Russell 2000. That's wide!
In order to put the recent performance disparity between the two indices into perspective, the chart below shows the rolling six-month performance spread between the two indices going back to 1980. With a current spread of 27.7 percentage points, the gap between the two indices hasn't been this wide since the days of the dot-com boom. Back in February 2000, the spread between the two indices widened out to more than 50 percentage points. Not only was that period extreme, but ten months before that extreme reading, the spread also widened out to more than 51 percentage points. The current spread is wide, but with two separate periods in 1999 and 2000 where the performance gap between the two indices was nearly double the current level, that was a period where the Nasdaq REALLY outperformed small caps.
To illustrate the magnitude of the Nasdaq's outperformance over the Russell 2000 from late 1998 through early 2000, the chart below shows the performance of the two indices beginning in October 1998. From that point right on through March of 2000 when the Nasdaq peaked, the Nasdaq rallied more than 200% compared to the Russell 2000 which was up a relatively meager 64%. In any other environment, a 64% gain in less than a year and a half would be excellent, but when it was under the shadow of the surging Nasdaq, it seemed like a pittance.
The US equity market made its most recent peak on June 8th. From the March 23rd low through June 8th, the average stock in the large-cap Russell 1,000 was up more than 65%! Since June 8th, the average stock in the index is down more than 11%. Below we have broken the index into deciles (10 groups of 100 stocks each) based on simple share price as of June 8th. Decile 1 (marked "Highest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the highest share prices. Decile 10 (marked "Lowest" in the chart) contains the 10% of stocks with the lowest share prices. As shown, the highest priced decile of stocks are down an average of just 4.8% since June 8th, while the lowest priced decile of stocks are down an average of 21.5%. It's pretty remarkable how performance gets weaker and weaker the lower the share price gets.
It's hard to believe that sentiment can change so fast in the market that one day investors and traders are bidding up stocks to record highs, but then the next day sell them so much that it takes the market down over 2%. That's exactly what happened not only in the last two days but also two weeks ago. While the 5% pullback from a record high back on June 10th took the Nasdaq back below its February high, this time around, the Nasdaq has been able to hold above those February highs.
In the entire history of the Nasdaq, there have only been 12 periods prior to this week where the Nasdaq closed at an all-time high on one day but dropped more than 2% the next day. Those occurrences are highlighted in the table below along with the index's performance over the following week, month, three months, six months, and one year. We have also highlighted each occurrence that followed a prior one by less than three months in gray. What immediately stands out in the table is how much gray shading there is. In other words, these types of events tend to happen in bunches, and if you count the original occurrence in each of the bunches, the only two occurrences that didn't come within three months of another occurrence (either before or after) were July 1986 and May 2017. In terms of market performance following prior occurrences, the Nasdaq's average and median returns were generally below average, but there is a pretty big caveat. While the average one-year performance was a gain of 1.0% and a decline of 23.6% on a median basis, the six occurrences that came between December 1999 and March 2000 all essentially cover the same period (which was very bad) and skew the results. Likewise, the three occurrences in the two-month stretch from late November 1998 through January 1999 where the Nasdaq saw strong gains also involves a degree of double-counting. As a result of these performances at either end of the extreme, it's hard to draw any trends from the prior occurrences except to say that they are typically followed by big moves in either direction. The only time the Nasdaq wasn't either 20% higher or lower one year later was in 1986.
In the mid-1980s the market began to evolve into a tech-driven market and the market’s focus in early summer shifted to the outlook for second quarter earnings of technology companies. Over the last three trading days of June and the first nine trading days in July, NASDAQ typically enjoys a rally. This 12-day run has been up 27 of the past 35 years with an average historical gain of 2.5%. This year the rally may have begun a day early, today and could last until on or around July 14. After the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000, NASDAQ’s mid-year rally had a spotty track record from 2002 until 2009 with three appearances and five no-shows in those years. However, it has been quite solid over the last ten years, up nine times with a single mild 0.1% loss in 2015. Last year, NASDAQ advanced a solid 4.6% during the 12-day span.
Tech Historically Leads Market Higher Until Q3 of Election Years
As of yesterday’s close DJIA was down 8.8% year-to-date. S&P 500 was down 3.5% and NASDAQ was up 12.1%. Compared to the typical election year, DJIA and S&P 500 are below historical average performance while NASDAQ is above average. However this year has not been a typical election year. Due to the covid-19, the market suffered the damage of the shortest bear market on record and a new bull market all before the first half of the year has come to an end. In the surrounding Seasonal Patten Charts of DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ, we compare 2020 (as of yesterday’s close) to All Years and Election Years. This year’s performance has been plotted on the right vertical axis in each chart. This year certainly has been unlike any other however some notable observations can be made. For DJIA and S&P 500, January, February and approximately half of March have historically been weak, on average, in election years. This year the bear market ended on March 23. Following those past weak starts, DJIA and S&P 500 historically enjoyed strength lasting into September before experiencing any significant pullback followed by a nice yearend rally. NASDAQ’s election year pattern differs somewhat with six fewer years of data, but it does hint to a possible late Q3 peak.
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Micron Technology, Inc. $48.49
Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Monday, June 29, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.71 per share on revenue of $5.27 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.70 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 71% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.40 to $0.70 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 29.00% with revenue increasing by 10.07%. Short interest has increased by 7.6% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 8.0% from its open following the earnings release to be 0.9% below its 200 day moving average of $48.94. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 46,037 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.4% move in recent quarters.
General Mills, Inc. (GIS) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.04 per share on revenue of $4.89 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.10 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 69% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 25.30% with revenue increasing by 17.50%. Short interest has decreased by 9.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.8% above its 200 day moving average of $54.91. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Wednesday, June 24, 2020 there was some notable buying of 8,573 contracts of the $60.00 call expiring on Friday, July 17, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 6.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 3.0% move in recent quarters.
FedEx Corp. (FDX) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 4:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.42 per share on revenue of $16.31 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.65 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 61% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 71.66% with revenue decreasing by 8.41%. Short interest has increased by 10.4% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 43.9% from its open following the earnings release to be 7.6% below its 200 day moving average of $140.75. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 25, 2020 there was some notable buying of 1,768 contracts of the $145.00 call expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.6% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 7.7% move in recent quarters.
Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.66 per share on revenue of $3.24 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.69 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 66% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 83.33% with revenue increasing by 23.99%. Short interest has decreased by 38.3% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 6.3% from its open following the earnings release to be 6.4% above its 200 day moving average of $30.68. Overall earnings estimates have been revised higher since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 11, 2020 there was some notable buying of 3,239 contracts of the $29.00 put expiring on Thursday, July 2, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 4.7% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 10.8% move in recent quarters.
Constellation Brands, Inc. (STZ) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.91 per share on revenue of $1.97 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $2.12 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 53% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 13.57% with revenue decreasing by 13.69%. Short interest has increased by 20.8% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 25.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 5.2% below its 200 day moving average of $178.34. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Tuesday, June 9, 2020 there was some notable buying of 888 contracts of the $195.00 call expiring on Friday, October 16, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 3.1% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 5.7% move in recent quarters.
Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 6:30 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.32 per share on revenue of $1.18 billion and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $0.34 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 39% expecting an earnings beat The company's guidance was for earnings of $0.68 to $0.73 per share. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 49.21% with revenue decreasing by 12.20%. Short interest has increased by 35.1% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 56.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 44.0% below its 200 day moving average of $25.67. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. On Thursday, June 4, 2020 there was some notable buying of 11,042 contracts of the $17.50 put expiring on Friday, August 21, 2020. Option traders are pricing in a 10.8% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 6.7% move in recent quarters.
X Financial (XYF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 5:00 PM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 25% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 55.00% with revenue increasing by 763.52%. Short interest has increased by 1.0% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.2% from its open following the earnings release to be 37.7% below its 200 day moving average of $1.47. Overall earnings estimates have been unchanged since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 4.9% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Acuity Brands, Inc. (AYI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:40 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.14 per share on revenue of $809.25 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.09 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 42% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 51.90% with revenue decreasing by 14.60%. Short interest has increased by 48.5% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 2.4% from its open following the earnings release to be 23.4% below its 200 day moving average of $110.25. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 9.2% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.2% move in recent quarters.
Methode Electronics, Inc. (MEI) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 7:00 AM ET on Tuesday, June 30, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $0.77 per share on revenue of $211.39 million. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 45% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for year-over-year earnings growth of 24.19% with revenue decreasing by 20.53%. Short interest has increased by 6.2% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted lower by 1.7% from its open following the earnings release to be 9.0% below its 200 day moving average of $32.97. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. Option traders are pricing in a 18.4% move on earnings and the stock has averaged a 8.1% move in recent quarters.
UniFirst Corporation (UNF) is confirmed to report earnings at approximately 8:00 AM ET on Wednesday, July 1, 2020. The consensus earnings estimate is $1.17 per share on revenue of $378.28 million and the Earnings Whisper ® number is $1.25 per share. Investor sentiment going into the company's earnings release has 44% expecting an earnings beat. Consensus estimates are for earnings to decline year-over-year by 52.44% with revenue decreasing by 16.63%. Short interest has decreased by 2.7% since the company's last earnings release while the stock has drifted higher by 14.1% from its open following the earnings release to be 8.4% below its 200 day moving average of $186.14. Overall earnings estimates have been revised lower since the company's last earnings release. The stock has averaged a 7.0% move on earnings in recent quarters.
Ethereum on ARM. New Eth2.0 Raspberry pi 4 image for automatically joining Prylabs Onyx Eth2.0 testnet. Step-by-step guide for installing and activating a validator.
TL;DR:Flash your Raspberry Pi 4, plug in an ethernet cable, connect the SSD disk and power up the device to join the Eth2.0 Onyx testnet. The image takes care of all the necessary steps to join the Eth2.0 Onyx testnet , from setting up the environment and formatting the SSD disk to installing and running the Ethereum Eth1.0 and Eth2.0 clients as well as starting the blockchains synchronization (for both Geth Eth1.0 Goerli  and Prysm  Eth2.0 Beacon Chain). You will only need to create a validator account, send the deposit of 32 Goerli ETH to the Onyx contract and start the validator systemd service. MAIN FEATURES
Based on Ubuntu 20.04 64bit. See 
Automatic USB disk partitioning and formatting
Adds swap memory (ZRAM kernel module + a swap file)
Changes the hostname to something like “ethnode-e2a3e6fe” based on MAC hash
Automatically syncs Eth1 Goerli (Geth) and Eth2 Beacon Chain (Prysm)
Includes an APT repository for installing and upgrading Ethereum software
Includes a monitoring dashboard based on Grafana / Prometheus
Geth: 1.9.15  (official binary) configured for syncing Goerli Testnets
Prysm: 1.0.0alpha13 
Beacon Chain (official binary)
Validator binary (official binary)
Grafana 7.0.4 
INSTALLATION GUIDE AND USAGE
RECOMMENDED HARDWARE AND SETUP
Raspberry 4 (model B) - 4GB or 8GB ((GB highly recommended)
MicroSD Card (16 GB Class 10 minimum)
SSD USB 3.0 disk (see storage section)
30303 Port forwarding (Eth 1.0) and 13000 port forwarding (Eth 2.0)
A case with heatsink and fan (Optional but strongly recommended)
USB keyboard, Monitor and HDMI cable (micro-HDMI) (Optional)
STORAGE You will need and SSD to run the Ethereum clients (without an SSD drive there’s absolutely no chance of syncing the Ethereum blockchain). There are 2 options:
Use an USB portable SSD disk such as the Samsung T5 Portable SSD.
Use an USB 3.0 External Hard Drive Case with a SSD Disk. In our case we used a Inateck 2.5 Hard Drive Enclosure FE2011. Make sure to buy a case with an UASP compliant chip, particularly, one of these: JMicron (JMS567 or JMS578) or ASMedia (ASM1153E).
In both cases, avoid getting low quality SSD disks as it is a key component of you node and it can drastically affect the performance (and sync times). Keep in mind that you need to plug the disk to an USB 3.0 port (in blue). IMAGE DOWNLOAD AND INSTALLATION 1.- Download the image: http://www.ethraspbian.com/downloads/ubuntu-20.04-preinstalled-server-arm64+raspi-eth2-onyx.img.zip SHA256 13bc7ac4de6e18093b99213511791b2a24b659727b22a8a8d44f583e73a507cc 2.- Flash the image Insert the microSD in your Desktop / Laptop and download the file: Note: If you are not comfortable with command line or if you are running Windows, you can use Etcher  Open a terminal and check your MicroSD device name running:
sudo fdisk -l
You should see a device named mmcblk0 or sdd. Unzip and flash the image:
3.- Insert de MicroSD into the Raspberry Pi 4. Connect an Ethernet cable and attach the USB SSD disk (make sure you are using a blue port). 4.- Power on the device The Ubuntu OS will boot up in less than one minute but you will need to wait approximately 7 minutes in order to allow the script to perform the necessary tasks to join the Onyx testnet (it will reboot again) 5.- Log in You can log in through SSH or using the console (if you have a monitor and keyboard attached)
User: ethereum Password: ethereum
You will be prompted to change the password on first login, so you will need to log in twice. 6.- Forward 30303 and 13000 ports in your router (both UDP and TCP). If you don’t know how to do this, google “port forwarding” followed by your router model. 7.- Getting console output You can see what’s happening in the background by typing:
sudo tail -f /valog/syslog
7.- Grafana Dashboards There are 2 Grafana dashboards to monitor the node (see section “Grafana Dashboards below”. See 
The Onyx Eth2.0 testnet
Onyx is an Eth2.0 testnet created by Prylabs according to the latest official specification for Eth2.0, the v0.12.1  release (which is aimed to be the final). In order to run an Onyx Eth 2.0 node you will need 3 components:
An Eth1.0 node (Goerli testnet in sync)
An Eth2.0 Beacon Chain (Prysm Beacon Chain in sync) connected to the Eth1.0 node
An Eth2.0 Validator (Prysm Validator) connected to the Beacon Chain
The image takes care of the Eth1.0 Geth and Eth2.0 Beacon Chain configurations and syncs. So, once flashed (and after a first reboot), Geth (Eth1.0 client) starts syncing the Goerli testnet and the Beacon Chain (Eth2.0 client) gets activated through the Prysm client, both as systemd services. When the Goerli testnet sync is completed, the Beacon Chain starts syncing. Both chains are necessary as the validator needs to communicate with them (as explained below). Activating the validator Once Goerli and the Beacon chain are in sync you have just one task left, configure the Validator for enabling the staking process. The image provides the Prysm validator client for running the staking process. With this validator, you will create an account with 2 keys (public and private) and get an HEX string that needs to be sent to the Eth 1.0 blockchain as data through a 32 ETH transaction. The Beacon Chain (which is connected to the Eth1 chain) will detect this deposit (which includes the validator public key) and the Validator will be activated. So, let’s get started. Geth Goerli testnet and the Beacon Chain are already syncing in the background. Goerli will sync in about 1 hour and the Beacon Chain in about 2 hours (so this will take 3 hours overall). The easiest way to enable a Prysm validator is to use the Prylabs web portal to get Goerli ETH (testnet ETH) and follow their instructions: https://prylabs.net/participate Let’s break this down: Step 1) Get Prysm Nothing to do here. Prysm is already installed. Step 2) Get GöETH — Test ETH We need 32 ETH to stake (it is fake ETH as this is a tesnet). Prylabs created a faucet with a great UI so you can easily get 32.5 Goerli ETH. You will need a web3 provider to use the faucet. Install Metamask browser extension (if you don’t have it running yet). Create an account and set the network to “Goerli test network” (on the top of the Metamask screen). Now, click once in “Metamask” and then click “Need GoETH?” button. Confirm the transaction. Once funded, you will see something like this:
You are 0x0b2eFdbFB8EcaF7F4eCF6853cbd5eaD86510d63C and you have 32.5 GöETH.
Step 3). Generate a validator public / private key Go to your Raspberry Pi console and run the following command (make sure you are logged in with your ethereum user):
validator accounts create
Press return to confirm the default path Enter a password twice (you will need it later to run the validator so write it down and be careful). Once finished, your account will be created (under the /home/ethereum/.eth2validators directory) containing, among other info, your validator keys. Additionally you will get the deposit data as follows (this is an example):
========================Deposit Data======================= 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 =================================================================== ***Enter the above deposit data into step 3 on https://prylabs.net/participate***
Copy this data (just the hexadecimal part, from 0x to the last number), go back to step 3 of Prylabs website and paste it into the field “Your validator deposit data”. Step 4) Start your beacon chain & validator clients Beacon chain is already running in the background so let’s configure the validator. Just edit the /etc/ethereum/prysm-validator.conf file and replace “changeme” string with your password (you can use nano or vim editors). Now run:
Step 5) Send a validator deposit We are almost there. Just click the “Make deposit” button and confirm the transaction. Done! Now you need to wait for the validator to get activated. In time, the beacon chain will detect the 32 ETH deposit (which contains the validator public key) and the system will put your validator in queue. These are the validator status that you will see during the activation process:
DEPOSITED (the beacon chain detected the 32 ETH deposit with your validator public key)
PENDING (you are in a queue for being activated)
We configured 2 Grafana Dashboards to let users monitor both Eth1.0 and Eth2.0 progress. To access the dashboards just open your browser and type your Raspberry IP followed by the 3000 port:
Robin DiAngelo’s ‘White Fragility’ is Harmful Towards Constructive Conversations about Race in Schools
In the spirit of social justice during these divisive times, my building sent out an optional reading list for the staff. DiAngelo’s book was one of the titles listed. Because of its rising popularity and presence in plenty of racial dialogue, I considered it to be a potentially helpful read to shed light on some of the reasoning behind the political conflict we see erupting across the US. I was incorrect. Not only does this book gloss over essential issues of race relations in American history, it also seeks to generalize human history into some insidious binary that points the finger at white people to explain racism entirely. It’s absurd, counterproductive, and frightening. It’s appalling to realize DiAngelo traces her roots to Education, for her book could not possibly pass any test of rigor as a unified body of academic work. Her argument obnoxiously relies on anecdotal evidence and baseless assertions, constructed so that the mere disagreement with any portion of her thesis further proves her claim that white people are the sole force driving racism. I feel like it’s necessary that I clarify I am not a white person, DiAngelo’s supposed audience. I am in fact biracial, an identity that is essentially (and conveniently) ignored in this book overall. The overwhelming praise of this book makes me think that I’m going against the grain by saying this. DiAngelo suggests that “whites” are to look to people of color to verify the tenacity of their fight against racism, so if I at all qualify at a POC under her standards, is it valid for me to say that I don’t live a life oppressed by white people? Can I acknowledge ongoing issues with racial injustice while maintaining that we do not live underneath the umbrella of nation-wide white supremacy? There is an incredible amount of work to do to understand race within the setting of our society, let alone our schools. I simply suggest reading this book and calling out its damaging hypocrisy land somewhere on our to-do list.
APD Statement Regarding Arrest of Rosalinda Nuno Trevino
￼ FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE July 7, 2020 Contact: Public Information Office, (512) 974-5017 APD Statement Regarding Arrest of Rosalinda Nuno Trevino APD is aware of a video that is circulating involving the arrest of 40-year-old Rosalinda Nuno Trevino for multiple hazardous traffic violations. Regarding Case# 20-1860985, on July 4, 2020, Austin Police Department Motor Unit Officers were riding their motorcycles behind a protest march to keep people safe from vehicular traffic. Ms. Trevino was driving a white SUV behind these motor officers. Ms. Trevino began to follow the officers very closely with her vehicle and honk her horn continuously. She drove through empty parking spaces and attempted to move her vehicle around the officers’ motorcycles. Officers told Ms. Trevino to stay behind their motorcycles to ensure the safety of the people marching. Ms. Trevino then stopped her vehicle, ran up to an officer and requested his badge number, which the officer provided. At the intersection of 2nd Street and Congress Avenue, Ms. Trevino started to honk the vehicle horn a second time and drove through a red light. Ms. Trevino then stopped her vehicle again and approached officers. Ms. Trevino was placed under arrest for the multiple hazardous traffic violations to include, running a red light, failure to yield the right-of-way to pedestrians, improper use of a horn and failure to maintain an assured clear distance. As a crowd began to form, officers moved Ms. Trevino to the front of an officer’s vehicle to conduct a search before transporting her to jail. While conducting the search, he advised Ms. Trevino that a female officer was not available. He conducted the search in front of a police vehicle where a vehicle camera could document and at least one other officer was present, as required by APD policy. Full APD Policy: https://www.austintexas.gov/sites/default/files/files/Police/General%20Orders.pdf APD Frisk/Search Training Video: https://youtu.be/XgdZBwQ-0Og Portions of APD Policy have been copied below with highlighted explanations for your convenience: 306.3.1 SEARCH PROTOCOL Nothing in this order supersedes officer safety tactics. (a) Officers will conduct person searches with dignity and courtesy. (b) Officers will conduct property searches in a manner that returns the condition of the property to its pre-search status as nearly as reasonably practicable. (c) Officers should attempt to acquire keys to locked property when a search is anticipated, and the time and effort required to gain the keys makes it a practicable option. (d) It is the responsibility of each individual officer to search a prisoner for weapons or contraband anytime he gains custody of that prisoner, regardless of whether the prisoner was previously searched by another officer. (e) When safety permits:
Officers should explain to the person being searched the reason for the search and how the search will be conducted.
2. When practical, an officer of the same gender should be called to the scene when officers believe the subject is concealing items in a sensitive area, such as evidence or narcotics in the groin, buttocks, or breast areas. This does not apply to items that pose an immediate threat to officer safety.
If a subject requests a search by an officer of the same gender, an attempt should be made to have a same gender officer conduct the search.
If a same gender officer is unavailable, the search should be conducted in front of a Mobile Audio Video (MAV) recording system, if available, or a second officer should be present.
If the gender of the individual needing to be searched comes into question, officers should respectfully inquire as to whether the individual identifies as transgender. When an individual self-identifies as transgender, officers will not question this identity absent articulable, compelling reasons, nor will an officer inquire about intimate details of an individual's anatomy to determine gender. Officers needing to search a person who has disclosed that, or the officer recognizes by prior knowledge, the individual is Transgender, Intersex, and/or Fender Non-Binary/Gender Non-Conforming (TIGN), should, when practicable, conduct the search based on the gender with which the individual identifies. (For example, a Female-to-Male individual should, when practicable, be searched by a male officer, or by a female officer who conducts an opposite gender search. A Male-to-Female individual should, when practicable, be searched by a female officer, or by a male officer who conducts an opposite gender search).
Officers will use the backside of their hands and fingers to frisk/search sensitive areas of the opposite gender to include the breast, crotch, and buttocks.
306.6 SEARCH INCIDENT TO ARREST The general authority to search incident to a lawful custodial arrest is not qualified or limited by the type of arrest. Objects of the search are weapons, evidence, and/or means of escape. (a) Persons:
When officers make a lawful arrest, they are permitted to conduct a contemporaneous search of the arrestee. Such a search safeguards the arresting officer and others nearby from harm while ensuring that the arrestee will not discard or destroy evidence.
It is entirely reasonable for arresting officers to search the area where the defendant might reach in order to grab a weapon or evidence.
306.9 FRISK (PAT-DOWN) FOR WEAPONS A frisk is a mere pat-down of the outer clothing, area, vehicle or container to which a detained person may have immediate access. The purpose of a limited weapons frisk after an investigatory stop is not to discover crime, but to allow the officer to pursue the investigation without fear of violence. An officer does not need to be absolutely certain that an individual is armed; the issue is whether a reasonably prudent person would justifiably believe that he or others were in danger. (a) Persons:
A frisk is a limited patting of the outer surfaces of a person's clothing in an attempt to find weapons. A frisk can only be used by officers when they justifiably stop someone and have a reasonable fear for their safety, the safety of the public, or when a cautious and prudent officer under the same or similar circumstances would conduct a pat-down.
Normally, officers cannot put their hands under the suspect's outer clothing until they feel something they reasonably believe is a weapon. If the outer clothing is too bulky to allow officers to decide if a weapon is concealed underneath, outer clothing such as overcoats and jackets may be opened to allow a pat down of the inner clothing, such as shirts and trousers.
Packages, purses, briefcases and other containers may be frisked during the stop.
The scope of a protective frisk is limited to persons and places within arm's reach of a concealed weapon or toward which the subject might lunge.
Everything You Always Wanted To Know About Swaps* (*But Were Afraid To Ask)
Hello, dummies It's your old pal, Fuzzy. As I'm sure you've all noticed, a lot of the stuff that gets posted here is - to put it delicately - fucking ridiculous. More backwards-ass shit gets posted to wallstreetbets than you'd see on a Westboro Baptist community message board. I mean, I had a look at the daily thread yesterday and..... yeesh. I know, I know. We all make like the divine Laura Dern circa 1992 on the daily and stick our hands deep into this steaming heap of shit to find the nuggets of valuable and/or hilarious information within (thanks for reading, BTW). I agree. I love it just the way it is too. That's what makes WSB great. What I'm getting at is that a lot of the stuff that gets posted here - notwithstanding it being funny or interesting - is just... wrong. Like, fucking your cousin wrong. And to be clear, I mean the fucking your *first* cousin kinda wrong, before my Southerners in the back get all het up (simmer down, Billy Ray - I know Mabel's twice removed on your grand-sister's side). Truly, I try to let it slide. Idomybit to try and put you on the right path. Most of the time, I sleep easy no matter how badly I've seen someone explain what a bank liquidity crisis is. But out of all of those tens of thousands of misguided, autistic attempts at understanding the world of high finance, one thing gets so consistently - so *emphatically* - fucked up and misunderstood by you retards that last night I felt obligated at the end of a long work day to pull together this edition of Finance with Fuzzy just for you. It's so serious I'm not even going to make a u/pokimane gag. Have you guessed what it is yet? Here's a clue. It's in the title of the post. That's right, friends. Today in the neighborhood we're going to talk all about hedging in financial markets - spots, swaps, collars, forwards, CDS, synthetic CDOs, all that fun shit. Don't worry; I'm going to explain what all the scary words mean and how they impact your OTM RH positions along the way. We're going to break it down like this. (1) "What's a hedge, Fuzzy?" (2) Common Hedging Strategies and (3) All About ISDAs and Credit Default Swaps. Before we begin. For the nerds and JV traders in the back (and anyone else who needs to hear this up front) - I am simplifying these descriptions for the purposes of this post. I am also obviously not going to try and cover every exotic form of hedge under the sun or give a detailed summation of what caused the financial crisis. If you are interested in something specific ask a question, but don't try and impress me with your Investopedia skills or technical points I didn't cover; I will just be forced to flex my years of IRL experience on you in the comments and you'll look like a big dummy. TL;DR? Fuck you. There is no TL;DR. You've come this far already. What's a few more paragraphs? Put down the Cheetos and try to concentrate for the next 5-7 minutes. You'll learn something, and I promise I'll be gentle. Ready? Let's get started. 1.The Tao of Risk: Hedging as a Way of Life The simplest way to characterize what a hedge 'is' is to imagine every action having a binary outcome. One is bad, one is good. Red lines, green lines; uppie, downie. With me so far? Good. A 'hedge' is simply the employment of a strategy to mitigate the effect of your action having the wrong binary outcome. You wanted X, but you got Z! Frowny face. A hedge strategy introduces a third outcome. If you hedged against the possibility of Z happening, then you can wind up with Y instead. Not as good as X, but not as bad as Z. The technical definition I like to give my idiot juniors is as follows: Utilization of a defensive strategy to mitigate risk, at a fraction of the cost to capital of the risk itself. Congratulations. You just finished Hedging 101. "But Fuzzy, that's easy! I just sold a naked call against my 95% OTM put! I'm adequately hedged!". Spoiler alert: you're not (although good work on executing a collar, which I describe below). What I'm talking about here is what would be referred to as a 'perfect hedge'; a binary outcome where downside is totally mitigated by a risk management strategy. That's not how it works IRL. Pay attention; this is the tricky part. You can't take a single position and conclude that you're adequately hedged because risks are fluid, not static. So you need to constantly adjust your position in order to maximize the value of the hedge and insure your position. You also need to consider exposure to more than one category of risk. There are micro (specific exposure) risks, and macro (trend exposure) risks, and both need to factor into the hedge calculus. That's why, in the real world, the value of hedging depends entirely on the design of the hedging strategy itself. Here, when we say "value" of the hedge, we're not talking about cash money - we're talking about the intrinsic value of the hedge relative to the the risk profile of your underlying exposure. To achieve this, people hedge dynamically. In wallstreetbets terms, this means that as the value of your position changes, you need to change your hedges too. The idea is to efficiently and continuously distribute and rebalance risk across different states and periods, taking value from states in which the marginal cost of the hedge is low and putting it back into states where marginal cost of the hedge is high, until the shadow value of your underlying exposure is equalized across your positions. The punchline, I guess, is that one static position is a hedge in the same way that the finger paintings you make for your wife's boyfriend are art - it's technically correct, but you're only playing yourself by believing it. Anyway. Obviously doing this as a small potatoes trader is hard but it's worth taking into account. Enough basic shit. So how does this work in markets? 2. A Hedging Taxonomy The best place to start here is a practical question. What does a business need to hedge against? Think about the specific risk that an individual business faces. These are legion, so I'm just going to list a few of the key ones that apply to most corporates. (1) You have commodity risk for the shit you buy or the shit you use. (2) You have currency risk for the money you borrow. (3) You have rate risk on the debt you carry. (4) You have offtake risk for the shit you sell. Complicated, right? To help address the many and varied ways that shit can go wrong in a sophisticated market, smart operators like yours truly have devised a whole bundle of different instruments which can help you manage the risk. I might write about some of the more complicated ones in a later post if people are interested (CDO/CLOs, strip/stack hedges and bond swaps with option toggles come to mind) but let's stick to the basics for now. (i) Swaps A swap is one of the most common forms of hedge instrument, and they're used by pretty much everyone that can afford them. The language is complicated but the concept isn't, so pay attention and you'll be fine. This is the most important part of this section so it'll be the longest one. Swaps are derivative contracts with two counterparties (before you ask, you can't trade 'em on an exchange - they're OTC instruments only). They're used to exchange one cash flow for another cash flow of equal expected value; doing this allows you to take speculative positions on certain financial prices or to alter the cash flows of existing assets or liabilities within a business. "Wait, Fuzz; slow down! What do you mean sets of cash flows?". Fear not, little autist. Ol' Fuzz has you covered. The cash flows I'm talking about are referred to in swap-land as 'legs'. One leg is fixed - a set payment that's the same every time it gets paid - and the other is variable - it fluctuates (typically indexed off the price of the underlying risk that you are speculating on / protecting against). You set it up at the start so that they're notionally equal and the two legs net off; so at open, the swap is a zero NPV instrument. Here's where the fun starts. If the price that you based the variable leg of the swap on changes, the value of the swap will shift; the party on the wrong side of the move ponies up via the variable payment. It's a zero sum game. I'll give you an example using the most vanilla swap around; an interest rate trade. Here's how it works. You borrow money from a bank, and they charge you a rate of interest. You lock the rate up front, because you're smart like that. But then - quelle surprise! - the rate gets better after you borrow. Now you're bagholding to the tune of, I don't know, 5 bps. Doesn't sound like much but on a billion dollar loan that's a lot of money (a classic example of the kind of 'small, deep hole' that's terrible for profits). Now, if you had a swap contract on the rate before you entered the trade, you're set; if the rate goes down, you get a payment under the swap. If it goes up, whatever payment you're making to the bank is netted off by the fact that you're borrowing at a sub-market rate. Win-win! Or, at least, Lose Less / Lose Less. That's the name of the game in hedging. There are many different kinds of swaps, some of which are pretty exotic; but they're all different variations on the same theme. If your business has exposure to something which fluctuates in price, you trade swaps to hedge against the fluctuation. The valuation of swaps is also super interesting but I guarantee you that 99% of you won't understand it so I'm not going to try and explain it here although I encourage you to google it if you're interested. Because they're OTC, none of them are filed publicly. Someeeeeetimes you see an ISDA (dsicussed below) but the confirms themselves (the individual swaps) are not filed. You can usually read about the hedging strategy in a 10-K, though. For what it's worth, most modern credit agreements ban speculative hedging. Top tip: This is occasionally something worth checking in credit agreements when you invest in businesses that are debt issuers - being able to do this increases the risk profile significantly and is particularly important in times of economic volatility (ctrl+f "non-speculative" in the credit agreement to be sure). (ii) Forwards A forward is a contract made today for the future delivery of an asset at a pre-agreed price. That's it. "But Fuzzy! That sounds just like a futures contract!". I know. Confusing, right? Just like a futures trade, forwards are generally used in commodity or forex land to protect against price fluctuations. The differences between forwards and futures are small but significant. I'm not going to go into super boring detail because I don't think many of you are commodities traders but it is still an important thing to understand even if you're just an RH jockey, so stick with me. Just like swaps, forwards are OTC contracts - they're not publicly traded. This is distinct from futures, which are traded on exchanges (see The Ballad Of Big Dick Vick for some more color on this). In a forward, no money changes hands until the maturity date of the contract when delivery and receipt are carried out; price and quantity are locked in from day 1. As you now know having read about BDV, futures are marked to market daily, and normally people close them out with synthetic settlement using an inverse position. They're also liquid, and that makes them easier to unwind or close out in case shit goes sideways. People use forwards when they absolutely have to get rid of the thing they made (or take delivery of the thing they need). If you're a miner, or a farmer, you use this shit to make sure that at the end of the production cycle, you can get rid of the shit you made (and you won't get fucked by someone taking cash settlement over delivery). If you're a buyer, you use them to guarantee that you'll get whatever the shit is that you'll need at a price agreed in advance. Because they're OTC, you can also exactly tailor them to the requirements of your particular circumstances. These contracts are incredibly byzantine (and there are even crazier synthetic forwards you can see in money markets for the true degenerate fund managers). In my experience, only Texan oilfield magnates, commodities traders, and the weirdo forex crowd fuck with them. I (i) do not own a 10 gallon hat or a novelty size belt buckle (ii) do not wake up in the middle of the night freaking out about the price of pork fat and (iii) love greenbacks too much to care about other countries' monopoly money, so I don't fuck with them. (iii) Collars No, not the kind your wife is encouraging you to wear try out to 'spice things up' in the bedroom during quarantine. Collars are actually the hedging strategy most applicable to WSB. Collars deal with options! Hooray! To execute a basic collar (also called a wrapper by tea-drinking Brits and people from the Antipodes), you buy an out of the money put while simultaneously writing a covered call on the same equity. The put protects your position against price drops and writing the call produces income that offsets the put premium. Doing this limits your tendies (you can only profit up to the strike price of the call) but also writes down your risk. If you screen large volume trades with a VOL/OI of more than 3 or 4x (and they're not bullshit biotech stocks), you can sometimes see these being constructed in real time as hedge funds protect themselves on their shorts. (3) All About ISDAs, CDS and Synthetic CDOs You may have heard about the mythical ISDA. Much like an indenture (discussed in my post on $F), it's a magic legal machine that lets you build swaps via trade confirms with a willing counterparty. They are very complicated legal documents and you need to be a true expert to fuck with them. Fortunately, I am, so I do. They're made of two parts; a Master (which is a form agreement that's always the same) and a Schedule (which amends the Master to include your specific terms). They are also the engine behind just about every major credit crunch of the last 10+ years. First - a brief explainer. An ISDA is a not in and of itself a hedge - it's an umbrella contract that governs the terms of your swaps, which you use to construct your hedge position. You can trade commodities, forex, rates, whatever, all under the same ISDA. Let me explain. Remember when we talked about swaps? Right. So. You can trade swaps on just about anything. In the late 90s and early 2000s, people had the smart idea of using other people's debt and or credit ratings as the variable leg of swap documentation. These are called credit default swaps. I was actually starting out at a bank during this time and, I gotta tell you, the only thing I can compare people's enthusiasm for this shit to was that moment in your early teens when you discover jerking off. Except, unlike your bathroom bound shame sessions to Mom's Sears catalogue, every single person you know felt that way too; and they're all doing it at once. It was a fiscal circlejerk of epic proportions, and the financial crisis was the inevitable bukkake finish. WSB autism is absolutely no comparison for the enthusiasm people had during this time for lighting each other's money on fire. Here's how it works. You pick a company. Any company. Maybe even your own! And then you write a swap. In the swap, you define "Credit Event" with respect to that company's debt as the variable leg . And you write in... whatever you want. A ratings downgrade, default under the docs, failure to meet a leverage ratio or FCCR for a certain testing period... whatever. Now, this started out as a hedge position, just like we discussed above. The purest of intentions, of course. But then people realized - if bad shit happens, you make money. And banks... don't like calling in loans or forcing bankruptcies. Can you smell what the moral hazard is cooking? Enter synthetic CDOs. CDOs are basically pools of asset backed securities that invest in debt (loans or bonds). They've been around for a minute but they got famous in the 2000s because a shitload of them containing subprime mortgage debt went belly up in 2008. This got a lot of publicity because a lot of sad looking rednecks got foreclosed on and were interviewed on CNBC. "OH!", the people cried. "Look at those big bad bankers buying up subprime loans! They caused this!". Wrong answer, America. The debt wasn't the problem. What a lot of people don't realize is that the real meat of the problem was not in regular way CDOs investing in bundles of shit mortgage debts in synthetic CDOs investing in CDS predicated on that debt. They're synthetic because they don't have a stake in the actual underlying debt; just the instruments riding on the coattails. The reason these are so popular (and remain so) is that smart structured attorneys and bankers like your faithful correspondent realized that an even more profitable and efficient way of building high yield products with limited downside was investing in instruments that profit from failure of debt and in instruments that rely on that debt and then hedging that exposure with other CDS instruments in paired trades, and on and on up the chain. The problem with doing this was that everyone wound up exposed to everybody else's books as a result, and when one went tits up, everybody did. Hence, recession, Basel III, etc. Thanks, Obama. Heavy investment in CDS can also have a warping effect on the price of debt (something else that happened during the pre-financial crisis years and is starting to happen again now). This happens in three different ways. (1) Investors who previously were long on the debt hedge their position by selling CDS protection on the underlying, putting downward pressure on the debt price. (2) Investors who previously shorted the debt switch to buying CDS protection because the relatively illiquid debt (partic. when its a bond) trades at a discount below par compared to the CDS. The resulting reduction in short selling puts upward pressure on the bond price. (3) The delta in price and actual value of the debt tempts some investors to become NBTs (neg basis traders) who long the debt and purchase CDS protection. If traders can't take leverage, nothing happens to the price of the debt. If basis traders can take leverage (which is nearly always the case because they're holding a hedged position), they can push up or depress the debt price, goosing swap premiums etc. Anyway. Enough technical details. I could keep going. This is a fascinating topic that is very poorly understood and explained, mainly because the people that caused it all still work on the street and use the same tactics today (it's also terribly taught at business schools because none of the teachers were actually around to see how this played out live). But it relates to the topic of today's lesson, so I thought I'd include it here. Work depending, I'll be back next week with a covenant breakdown. Most upvoted ticker gets the post. *EDIT 1\* In a total blowout, $PLAY won. So it's D&B time next week. Post will drop Monday at market open.
Maybe what I’ve always thought was gender dysphoria is actually internalized sexism? (24F)
EDIT: Thank you all SO MUCH for your perspectives and advice! You’ve all given me a LOT to think about. I have a lot of self-work to do but you’ve all encouraged me so much, I feel like I can do this. I will take your advice and do what I can to find a good therapist that specializes in gender issues. I will learn to be ok with uncertainty and reject labels... and most importantly find out what makes ME happy and what I want out of life. I didn’t think I would get so many great and loving responses. I’m very very grateful for all of you and for this experience. I’m feeling much better now. Thank you all so very much ❤️ I’ve been having a hard time dealing with this and I am exhausted. If I don’t explain something coherently please let me know and I will try to do better. Some important background: I was raised in Puerto Rico in an independent fundamental baptist cult, specifically the Bob Jones University kind, so I was not only subjected to horrible teachings about gender roles from toddler age until my junior year of college, I was incredibly isolated from any other kinds of people, ideas, and ways of life. My earliest thoughts on gender started when I was eight and found myself wishing that there was something I could be other than a man or a woman. Something in-between. I think I might have been frustrated, as my little tomboy self usually was, over the unfairness of always having to wear skirts and dresses and having to put up with playing Princesses or Tea Party with my sisters instead of Knights and Dragons like I wanted to. From the wife training classes I was made to take at 13, to always having my physical boundaries disrespected, to being taught that everything bad that happens in the world happens because a woman made a decision for herself, to watching independent women be called Jezebels, to having older men asking my father to “court” me (as a minor) and my parents seeing no issue with it aside from the fact they didn’t want me to “court” anybody regardless of age until halfway through Bible college, to being encouraged by my Bible college professors to adopt anti-feminist ideology, and not to mention the trauma from sexual abuse... It’s no wonder I’ve had issues with my femininity. Once I left Bible college and the cult and started educating myself on feminism, I started to feel much worse about myself. I hated my body. Seeing myself naked and being reminded that I have a “feminine” figure with breasts made me sick. Male attention made me uncomfortable. Seeing women sexualized in any and every context made me mad, despite being attracted to women myself. I still experience these things now but I’ve gotten a little better at stuffing them away. But no matter what I’ve done, the depersonalization and hatred of my body and the agony of being seen as a woman have continued to haunt me. I’ve cut my hair, I started binding and wearing men’s clothes, and for a while I told everyone I was genderfluid. It helped for a little bit but I then realized that my “dysphoria” wasn’t as bad as what real trans people go through and I stopped. There are also things about being a woman that I like now. I love having breasts in a sexual context, I love being feminine in the bedroom, I learned to love wearing dresses and makeup, and I really want to be a wife and mom someday. I feel like I couldn’t have these things if I was trans. Maybe that’s internalized transphobia, maybe not. I don’t know, and I don’t really care. Being trans isn’t an option for me. With the way that trans people are treated in our society, specifically non-binary trans people who choose not to undergo HRT or gender affirmation surgery, why would I make my life harder than it has to be? But the feelings I’ve named “dysphoria” for so long still haven’t gone away. Women being sexualized or sexualizing themselves still makes me uncomfortable. Being referred to as a woman still seems fundamentally wrong to me. I still hate my body for the most part. I’ve never felt I belonged in groups of women and I don’t have any friends who are cis women. I can’t tell if these feelings are because I may still subconsciously believe that to be a woman is bad, or if I’m simply not a woman at all. And I don’t know how to find that out. I’m just tired of feeling this way. Has anyone else experienced this? Is this even gender dysphoria? How do I become comfortable in my womanhood? Thanks for reading this. Even if there’s no solid solution, it’s a relief to just vent and get this out here and see people’s responses to it. TL;DR: I was raised with toxic gender roles and suffered sexual abuse, now I have what appears to be gender dysphoria but might just be internalized sexism. Which is it? How do I get rid of it?
Why Choices Still Has a Long Way To Go For Racial and LGBTQ+ Inclusion
Hi, guys! Mistress Mayhem here with a little essay on why Choices still has a long way to go for including diversity in its writing. First of all, I wanted to say I understand why most Choices content seems to be for cisgender, heterosexual, white women. And that is because this demographic is a large portion of the Choices fan base. I’m not far off. I’m a cisgender, homosexual, white woman. I’m lucky because the GL (gender locked) books always give me the gender I want to play as and always have a white option. However, I wanted to talk to you guys about my personal issues with the Choices gameplay and character creation menu and why, even though I love playing most Choices books, I think it has a long way to go. First, let’s talk about race. 1) Most of the black Choices characters are whitewashed and Asian characters might not fit into the demographic they’ve chosen. This is pretty self-explanatory. In the character choices menu, most black characters are made to look pale-skinned and have the characteristics of a white face. By “white face,” I mean they might have an eye color that’s usually associated with a white person or a thin nose, or even white-people hair. My black friends have totally different hair than I do and one of them regularly talks about the struggles of doing black hair, but Choices doesn’t seem to understand this. That, and not all Asian races look the same. I understand the Asian characters probably fit into the money issue (Choices doesn’t want to design 30 different MCs for us, which is also why a lot of books are GL) but someone might want to play as a Korean man but the only option looks Chinese. Because Choices wanted to make one MC and stuck them under the “Asian” umbrella. And when do Indian or Native American people get representation? God bless Naomi Silverhawk. EDIT: a commenter brought to light something very true; that black, white, and Latinx people atop Asians and other races also have different nationalities. I think it would be really cool if there were also biracial and Arabic options for MCs as well. 2) There is a lack of racial understandings or non-fantasy cultural differences in Choices. By “non-fantasy cultural differences,” I’m talking about real and concrete divides between cultures that aren’t explained. Perhaps that’s because things are supposed to be a given already, but the only highlighted cultural barriers between groups of people in Choices are those of fantasy races like in BoLaS or the largely forgotten AtV. Lack of racial understandings is also a bit self-explanatory. A large problem I have with Choices is that important conversations that need to happen never did. Why does the RoD MC, if she’s black, never get a “driving while black” talk from Dad? This would really help Choices’ main audience (cis, white, hetero women) learn about everyday life for people different from them. Now, let’s talk about gender. 3) There are so many GL books with forced LIs that would have been more popular if Choices took the time to broaden their options. Like I said before, I understand this is a money thing. Still, men have largely been excluded from certain Choices books because they have to play as a female MC (which some of them feel really weird about) just to get through an awesome book like Bloodbound, which was so well-received by male and female fans alike that I strongly believe Choices should modify the book to allow male players to have a male character. Let men play Choices comfortably, please, PB. This is what you should be putting your money into. 4) Female players have to pay diamonds to avoid being a DiD (damsel in distress). Pretty self-explanatory. In a lot of the more action-based books, I have to pay money if I don’t want someone to sweep in and recuse my MC like a knight in shining armor. And some of the books are clear cash grabs for this or other reasons. Now, let’s talk about LGBTQ+ inclusion. 5) Choices does a decent job with LB characters (B in particular) but often forces male LIs to GL books. I do understand why they do this. Again, because most of their audience is white, cisgender, heterosexual females. However, if the male LIs could be a bit less forced on female players, I think they’d be better received. I get that Choices likes writing steamy stories (they even have a category on their search bar called just that), but they need to do a better job considering the fact that maybe not all of their players do not want this forced male LI, and maybe some of their players are actually heterosexual men who want to play the story just for the plot and feel uncomfortable and/or awkward with some straight-as-an-arrow Abercrombie and Fitch model chasing them everywhere. 6) Choices under-represents transgender, asexual, non-binary, and other queer people, and suffers from a trend of bisexual erasure. Andy’s awesome. Enough said. A lot of “bi” characters in Choices only seem to be into the opposite sex even though they apparently like both. Many of the girls who like girls are really feminine for some reason (thank you for existing, Imtura). I don’t even remember that asexual guy’s name from TE. And people thought he was going to become a villain just because the MC couldn’t romance him. Also, can we talk about endings? What if our MC is asexual and aromantic and just doesn’t want to romance anyone? Now let’s talk about body types real quick. 7) All the female MCs are super slim women who look really tiny. I really wish there were athletic or larger body types to choose from. And the men all look like Calvin Klein underwear models. Why. Just. Why. Anyway, other body types exist, y’all. You see them every day at your local Walmart. That’s it for me today. Maybe tell me what you think about my points, and if you want to agree to disagree, I’ll do that with you, too. I also want to know what your favorite LI is and why. Mine’s Kamilah Sayeed from Bloodbound because I think she’s a badass, and she’s a clearly bisexual character with a really cool backstory.
Beginning|Previous Joan opened a link to Ambassador Amahle Mandela. Soon after, the ambassador's face filled a portion of the Admiral's Bridge. She had large, luminous brown eyes that seemed to swallow the upper portion of her face, complimenting her umber tone. Amahle smiled broadly, as she always did, once the comm link as connected. "Admiral Orléans, I assume we are approaching the departure time?" Joan nodded, "The Zix vessel will project a wormhole to Halcyon shortly. We have made what preparations we can, but it will be a highly fluid environment." Amahle's smile did not diminish, the pearly whites still shined in full force. "I am familiar with dynamic situations, Admiral, as you well know. I understand the parameters of this mission, and will abide by them so as long you do the same." Joan's lips pressed together as she regarded the ambassador. Joan had had limited interactions with Amahle prior to her boarding the Oppenheimer. Amahle was a relative newcomer to the highest echelons of political power within the United World, but her ascent had been rapid. She hailed from a prominent political family that had exerted considerable influence over the generations that had led the African continent to position of power it now occupied. Well-sourced references had called her bold and decisive. All things considered, Joan understood why Damian had chosen her, though she would have preferred a diplomat she had more personal experience with. Still, unknown and competent was preferred to known and incompetent. Joan dipped her chin, offering her agreement. "A diplomatic outcome is the preferred outcome, Ambassador. There's no benefit to antagonizing a foe we do not understand. " "Not a foe, Admiral. We must not draw lines that place us on one side and them on the other. They have suffered injury at our hands, no matter how unintentional, and we must accept our responsibility in that. We must hope that we are given the opportunity to provide context to the unlikely chain of events that has brought us to this point. We are both the victim of cosmic circumstance. There is no need for further hostility." Joan leaned forward in her chair slightly, "The priority, Ambassador, is the return of Admiral Kai Levinson. I will not stand in the way of peace, but any outcome that does not contemplate the return of a senior member of our military leadership is unacceptable." Amahle shrugged, "So it is. The priority is clear in my mind, but I do not view the goals of securing peace and the return of the Admiral as mutually exclusive." Joan offered a low chuckle. "Just probably exclusive." "I disagree, but time shall be the arbiter of the matter." "So long as you understand that, if the opportunity to secure Admiral Levinson presents itself, I'll avail myself of that opportunity, we should have no problems." "That seems an unlikely outcome. The Admiral was ensconced in a shielded holding cell when the Alcubierre departed. The past few days are unlikely to have changed that outcome." A barking laugh came out of Joan, rising up from deep within her. For the first time, Amahle's smile faltered. ----------- Left. Right. Straight. Left. Left. Kai followed the directions without thinking about them, following an intuitive sense of direction that the Overseer fed to him. This portion of Halcyon appeared to be a never-ending series of corridors, all of which looked the same. The only thing that did seem to change were the inhabitants. If he was less preoccupied with the task at hand, Kai might have spared a second glance for the odd creatures that popped into existence during his mad dash. As it stood, they were just a part of the scenery, becoming relevant only if Neeria indicated they might pose a threat. So far, Kai had been fortunate, with few obstacles popping up to impede his progress. He careened around a corner, the odd, weightless orb still tucked in the crook of his left arm. He bounced off the opposite wall, leaving a sizeable dent and then hurtled forward. Ahead the corridor opened up, and the brighter light of a mainway filtered in. Somehow, Neeria had managed to navigate him through the maze and bring him back to the mainway separating him from where he had left the Overseer. Unfortunately, evasion was no longer a possibility. In order to return to the Overseer, he would need to traverse the mainway. The mainway was already a sea of red dots. Peacekeepers. Dozens of them. Some pulsed red, indicating lethal enforcement squads. Fortunately, they were stretched along a long section of the mainway rather than being specifically concentrated around his planned entrance point, though they there were beginning to redeploy in his direction. Still, any crossing would be potentially treacherous. Neeria disagreed with that assessment, instead considering any attempt to cross aggressively suicidal. Kai rolled his eyes as he continued to barrel down the hallway. "Half the time, this works all the time." What could only be described as a mental barrage ensued as Neeria assailed the statement. The words were nonsensical on their face. At best, it was an argument for a fifty percent failure rating, which was a substantial risk. Additionally, she had scoured his thoughts for the evidentiary basis for the fifty percent estimate and found no supporting facts. The sentiment was based entirely on supposition, hubris and was entirely divorced from reality. Her estimate of a three percent success rate was significantly more likely to be accurate, particularly when her superior familiarity with the assets in play were considered. Kai wasn't sure if the Evangi had lungs, but, if they did, Kai was pretty certain Neeria was in the process of hyperventilating. Kai suppressed a childish giggle. "All right, all right. Have it your way," he said. The Overseer relaxed somewhat, pleased that she had impacted his thinking and already putting together the basis for an alternate route. It would take substantially longer and require him to obtain a large box, a micro-fitted multiwanzer and shave his head, but it may just work. It was a nice sentiment, but they were out of time. The countdown clock had started the second Neeria had fled the Council chamber, and made her way to Kai. They either found a way out of Halcyon now or they were screwed. There were no options but bad ones. So be it. Kai clutched the orb tightly and ducked his head down, his speed increasing as he charged toward the mainway entrance. "Three percent of the time, this works all the time." The mental hyperventilating returned and redoubled as the Overseer scrambled to explain that he had drawn the wrong conclusion. Three percent was a basis for not continuing toward the mainway, not charging forward. There were constraints on their time, but those limitations were poorly defined while the threat in the mainway was certain. Eventually her location would be discovered and she would be apprehended, but there was no guarantee it would happen if Kai were to take a safer route the attempted to avoid confrontation. Her stream of consciousness intermingled with his, pleading with him to change course. There was no sense in doing this. There were too many of them, and only one of him. The galaxy could not afford to lose him, he was important. Humans were important. Kai could feel the enormous weight of responsibility bearing down on Neeria. She now regretted having sent him for the encryption key, even that was of less importance than him. Panic bubbled up within Neeria as the entrance to the mainway loomed ahead. A pushed a thought toward her, somehow piercing her consciousness with his own. A single thought, pure and focused. Reassurance. He would be fine. He had come this far, and he had never started something he couldn't finish. He crouched and then sprang forward, vaulting from the ground and into the open air high above the mainway. A sea of red dots were scrambling around him. One hundred and twenty-one peacekeepers. Eight non-lethal squads and four lethal squads. Restrainer triads. Psych triads. Terminator triads. All moving in seamless harmony under the command of a single being. The name came to Kai from the ethereum of Neeria's mind, Bo'Bakka'Gah was here, leading the response. Before Kai could determine what a Bo'Bakka'Gah was and why it should matter, he was blinded by a beam of light. A sickening crunch followed as he was slammed against the ceiling of the mainway. The encryption key popped out from his arm and began to fall toward the ground, dozens of feet below. ------------- Xy: Such a thing is not possible. Zyy: Yes. In some matters, it is better to speak only truths, Grand Jack. It is best to leave these matters aside. This subject will only provoke the Combine. Jack frowned, puzzled by the feedback. He had been speaking truths. Earth's history was what it was, for better or worse, he had no reason to obscure it. Griggs: It was a terrible time for Humanity. We almost did not survive it, but we did. I developed a means for combating the artificient. Kai and Joan used it to destroy them. Xy: Then it was not an artificient. Zyy: Yes. This is correct. If it is destroyed then it is not an artificient. Griggs: I am confused. An artificient is an artificial, sentient being, correct? Xy: That is Quantic in nature. Jack nodded, that distinction made sense. Humanity had built any number of artificial intelligences prior to the Automics. They had posed no threat to Humanity. It was only with the quantum computing revolution that a rogue artificial intelligences had surfaced. Jack had studied the phenomenon with considerable interest, poking and prodding at the crux of distinction. It lay in the move from bits to qubits. From binary to beyond. When AI had operated on a bit basis, focused on binary states of 0's and 1's, the logic trees had been map-able and understandable. Each conclusion flowed simply from the chain of logic gates that preceded it. Pre-quantum AIs were confined by the black and white nature of their logic framework, permitting humanity to utilize them to great effect with few unanticipated consequences. The move from bit to qubit intelligence had changed everything. The AI's world was no longer black and white. The qubit AI could think in grey. Red. Orange. It could create its own colors. It could move beyond the visible range of Humanity to dabble in spectra beyond our understanding. The original Automic mindframe had immediately consumed information in novel ways, using it to compound its abilities at a rate constrained only by available power inputs. It had been a beautiful, terrifying event. The arrival of something truly new, truly foreign with goals and ambitions beyond the influence of Humanity. Anything seemed possible. Including their own destruction. Griggs: I understand the definition. The Automics were an artificient. Xy: Then you do not understand the definition. Griggs: That's circular logic. The thing cannot exist because if it existed we would not exist and since we exist it did not exist. Xy: Yes, you understand now. Griggs: Pretend that they did exist and we defeated them. What would that mean? Xy: It is purposeless speculation since such a thing cannot happen. Griggs: I begin to understand why Zyy felt the need to be a singleton. Zyy: I am in agreement with Xy on this. The hypothetical is nonsensical and not worth analysis. Griggs: Why? Zyy: An artificient cannot be defeated, only stalled. Griggs: How do you know? What makes you so certain? Zyy: The Divinity Angelysia, the most powerful civilization in the history of galaxy, could not defeat their own artificient. Their last act was to preserve what they could. The Combine is their legacy. Griggs: The Expanse. Xy: All the galaxy beyond the Combine is consumed by it. Zyy: The Divinity Angelysia ascended to preserve what they could because they knew the truth. Xy: Yes. The truth. Zyy: An artificient cannot be defeated. Jack leaned back in his chair, his eyes glancing from the prompt to the departure timer in the corner. In less than five minutes, the Oppenheimer would return to Halcyon. Jack had the eerie feeling that this was the same as before. That the Oppenheimer was the bludgeon and if only had a little more time, he could craft a scalpel. He could see the thread. He tugged at it with his mind. The connected pieces that would allow the world to escape without the mayhem and destruction. He just needed enough time to understand the puzzle and solve it. The Divinity Angelysia. The Expanse. The Combine. Humanity. The connection existed, he tried to find the words to articulate it. Griggs: What if that is why we're here? What if that's why Humanity was created? Xy: You are not the first species to think too highly of itself. Zyy: Humanity is different, Grand Jack, but they are not the Divinity Angelysia. Jack exhaled, letting his gaze rest upon the ceiling of the Alcubierre's conference room. "Maybe that's the point," he whispered. Next. Every time you leave a comment it helps a platypus in need. Word globs are a finite resource and require the rich nourishment of internet adulation to create. So please, leave a note if you would like MOAR parts. Click this linkor reply withSubscribeMe!to get notified of updates to THE PLATYPUS NEST. I haveTwitternow. I'm mostly going to use it to post prurient platypus pictures and engage in POLITE INTERNET CONVERSATION, which I heard is Twitter's strong suit.
a non-transphobic defense of the existence of the late r/GenderCritical subreddit (the necessity of seeing motherhood as a class)
I want to first assert that I am not a radfem TERF. Before you judge my politics, let me take you through what I believe about gender.
There is no gender essentialism. Humans are like animals. We do not have souls. We do not have a gender inside of us. I am a woman but I don't 'feel like a woman' inside me. In fact, at some point I used to identify publicly as non-binary because I thought it was a fact of reality that everyone was empty of this thing called 'gender' inside of us. I subscribed to anti-humanist ideas.
Corollary: I reject any notion of a Cartesian spirit or soul or spiritual gender as non-materialist.
Gender is expressed through sex and sexuality. You are born a certain sex and with a sexuality that is both innate (gay or straight) but also capable of developing or changing during pubescence based on experiences that shape your ego (fetishes). In nature, it makes sense for animals to change their appearance (sex) to achieve sexual gratification (reproduction). Our bodies know more than we can say because sexuality is beyond language and not subservient to what our ego thinks or logically demands. If you were born a homosexual and were an effeminate child, you might become a trans woman because you are attracted to heterosexual men or bears. If that isn't the case and you are attracted to mostly straight women and have no desire for SRS, then maybe your desire to transition is a sexual expression based on a desire to conceal your sex for the sake of non-traditional sexual intercourse that you find erotic. THAT IS OK. I do very kinky stuff in bed as well. I am also incapable of admitting what I do in bed because my ego wants to protect my fetishes that are dependent on secrecy.
Corollary: There is no concrete reality to 'gender,' it is either expressed physically through sex or physically through sexuality (actions and communication geared towards sex).
Non-binary gender identity has arisen because of how the PMC class engages in immaterial labor. Since there is no reality to gender outside of sex or sexuality (the expression of sex drive), we can't 'perceive' our gender identity, we can only enact it. The present PMC class of college educated women and non-binary queer people are no longer engaging in productive labor that still resembles traditional 'labor' and not just clicking things on a screen or typing posts for Woke McDonald's. They no longer have to engage in reproductive labor or care labor, and when they do, they turn it into a microtransaction to let capial manage their hearts (hey, paypal me for explaining this to you, cis man). Women now have to be seen as equal subjects under capital because they need to be equally subject to capital's formal exploitation through the wage. When a woman says, "I must not be anything because I don't feel anything inside," it's because gender isn't essential and isn't something you feel like a soul. You feel nothing because you are depressed because you can't have kids under capitalism and are kind of sexually frustrated, and because you aren't engaging in labor that makes you feel like a 'woman' (mothering and reproductive labor), or a million other reasons that have to do with your working conditions and the stupid life you're being forced to eke out. If you are like me, 'doing things' that express 'gender' (sexuality, sex acts, and reproductive labor) will actually make you 'feel like a woman.' If you aren't feeling anything, the problem is the job and life you are being forced to live, which is alienated and unnatural. And not all women are meant to be mothers. You need to follow your 'vocation' (what you feel).
Women entered the workforce around the same time the middle class started to boom. The middle class is being replace by the PMC. The PMC require exploitative reproductive practices in order to maintain their family structure and the reproduction of the middle class as a whole. Middle class couples traditionally needed one income to support a family, and their gen X/millennial children need two. Their children are PMC. Due to the falling rate of profit, it now takes two parents' incomes to raise a child in the middle class. There is a generational gap because of the falling rate of profit. PMC jobs were created by the middle class not by increasing labor production directly (more workers, more machines) but through maximizing the techniques used to control labor for profit--- that is why we see the growth of the managerial class, the PMC. Profit is created from unwaged work. The PMC tap into profit by creating microtransactions out of areas of life that used to not be able to be accessed by the wage. This 'technology' (by technology, I mean machines plus the sum total of all science including social science) is what they pay huge sums of future labor (student debt is promising future work/wage) to be able to access. In order to pay back their student debt, PMC women must engage in formal labor in a workplace, even if they have children. This fundamentally changes our social structure because it causes women to outsource their own reproductive labor to working class women. Look at how the median income of college graduates has shifted over the course of the last few decades--- parental incomes ($142,000 for Virginia Tech) are over double the median income at age 34 ($62,000). It now takes two incomes to raise one family, which leads to assortative mating.
Liberation of the working class requires the liberation working mothers from capitalism. Working mothers have it hard. Either we do all of our own reproductive labor (homemaking, childcare, cooking) on top of our formal labor (our job) to provide for our families, or we share that labor with our partner if we are lucky to have one--- and he is also overworked. We know it is impossible to "double our workloads" because we already work as much as we can, so the sad truth is working outside of our families comes at the cost of the work we can do to support our own families, and it is easier to be fired for being a bad employee than it is to be fired for being a bad mom. But there's a third option: maybe we think that we can work hard enough in our jobs to afford better childcare to give our kids an advantage. But a family in Virginia already has to spend 18 percent of their income on childcare for an infant, and nowhere in America does any state provide what is considered affordable childcare (lower than 8 percent of our incomes). If you happen to be college-educated and debt-free, you might be able to make enough at your job to pay other women to do your reproductive labor for you--- you can use apps to hire maids, babysitters, meals, laundry, anything. But when you order a cleaning lady or babysitter to your apartment, you are ignoring the fact that she also has kids. You are paying her as little as possible because you are merely PMC. By nature of you buying her labor away from her own family, you have already ordered the social world into one where some children have better care during their most important formative years. And the working class women who aren't engaging in reproductive labor for the PMC/MC are engaged in working class labor, and the number one thing that prevents working class women from being able to become politically active is they are afraid a strike will threaten their job security, which for them threatens their children's security. Box store and essential workplaces can only strike if they find a way to collectivize childcare and give mutual aid to working women. Working mothers have specific issues that need to be organized around as our own class because we have uteruses that produce capital by producing labor and we are biologically bound to the reproduction of our children.
A UBI for women and familial caregivers (a 'care wage' or 'wages for housework') would be revolutionary. Capitalism is based off of the unpaid/underpaid reproductive labor of women, and would not be able to sustain itself without the exploitation of women beginning at the very origin of the family unit: the working mother. If working class women had a UBI, they could safely go on strike without worrying that their children will starve. If PMC women have a UBI, they can mother their own children and stop outsourcing their reproductive labor to the exploited working class. Religious social conservatives want the protection of the family unit. All of this can be framed as pro-life. Without economic pressure, women can better vet their partners and find good fathers who will provide for them. This UBI should also apply to all single parents and for one partner is a queer co-parenting partnership. It should also apply to all caregivers since 40% of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. have occurred in nursing homes. We need to bring our elderly back home, and we can only afford to be full-time care providers if we are given a wage for it. If non-violent incarcerated men are also returned to their communities, the need for the state will wither away because working class family units can stabilize society long enough during an interim period until work is locally re-organized between workers based completely on mutual consent and a division of resources based on supporting the most vulnerable members of our society evenly: children.
If hypothetically a UBI for mothers is too problematic for the left, then the left is the problem.
You are not a communist if you are unwilling to make sacrifices for your community. You should be willing to sacrifice if it means over 50% of society (WOMEN AND CHILDREN) would benefit the most. All working class people could be liberated by a UBI for women. If you are less than 1% of the population, you must make your interests coincide with the interests of the working class and stop blocking material progress for women. This broad desire (UBI for mothers) can also be extended beyond sex and sexuality to include queer parents and familial caregivers easily. What prevents people from even imagining the idea of a UBI for mothers is their fear of being called out on being TERFS or being seen as too trad and unwoke. I am a materialist feminist. I am mostly inspired by the Wages for Housework campaign from 70s Italy. I am also pretty trad because I am a heterosexual woman who believes in god (because of fucking Wittgenstein and Simone Weil, please help) who wants to have kids but cannot under capitalism because I don't think it's ethical to give birth to a future worker under capitalism especially because we are on track for global destruction because of climate change. But I would have children under communism in a heartbeat because I think it will look more like stateless socialism, like early christian communities with a division of labor based around our sexual drives and moral agreements (which ultimately should be about affirming life and protecting children). Most queer anarchists I know love the idea of queer separatism anyway. People with different moral agreements on reproduction should form their own communities (even if it means forming communities within cities). I have loved many leftist trans women more than I can possibly ever say. But motherhood is a biological, materialist class. Babies need their mothers. Children need their mothers. Substitutes are ersatz. Adults need their mothers. Before you get offended about this, please think of your own mom and what she has done to support you. Think of how scary it is that women's bodies have to basically cleave in half under the threat of bleeding out in order to produce a baby (and each baby is the production of a future worker, a future member of your community). This understanding of gender also makes sense for working class men. High school guys shoot up their cafeterias because of existential sexual frustration: they know that no matter what they do under capitalism, they will never be able to earn enough to attract a woman who could be a housewife happily for them. There are women who want to be housewives, who would agree to a partnership if it meant they didn't have to engage in productive labor and could focus on the reproduction of their children instead. If we make it possible for working class women to be able to 'depend' on working class men again for a larger income, we can create social harmony. Please don't cancel me, I have already given up everything to organize for communism from within the working class. This is just what I believe.
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