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on the fakeness of the internet
funny to see that subject pop up again. it was what drove me insane enough to find this sub in the first place. at any rate, the problem is not the bots. I thought it was, but those are just part of the parasitic ecosystem. but to get that, first we need to take a few steps back on web history, ad serving, UX, tracking technology and media advertising. too lazy to gather links, but you know, do your googlin'. I assume that most of you are fairly web literate here, but I'll try to go down into the bare bones as much as possible for those who aren't. so let's start with a basic question - what is a web visitor anyway? from the standpoint of a normal person, that would be a person browsing a given website or piece of content. from the standpoint of technology however all you know is that some device has downloaded content from your server using the http protocol. thanks to the wonderful technology of web browsers, you can plant browser cookies on a visitor - stuff that's used to remember if they logged in, what their preferences are, stuff that your service can read from the device. it also serves usually very basic telemetry like last visit time, session time, and so on. this, over time has evolved in what we call browser fingerprinting, a convoluted bunch of technology that allows websites and web services to uniquely identify you. it still doesn't know if you're a human or not, but from the standpoint of the web technology, you're a visitor. now back in ye old days of the web, when the first banner ads were springing up, these were important questions. most consumers were still to be reached on traditional media channels, and ad spend would have to be justified somehow on the risky ventures of online business. so beyond traditional polls that would infer the value of visitors, websites would start tracking number of visitors, time on page and so on. these were used to milk the advertising cow so to speak, and it gave in to some funny developments like the creation of the popup ad - if I recon correctly on geocities, where they would just but the ads everywhere until some big auto company noticed that they're appearing on porn sites. so - put the ad in the popup, and you can claim it's not in the context of porn! around this point in time the online ad business is still pretty low tech. you actually have to call a physical human being, they send you ppts and pdfs, you send back image files and excel sheets, you wire money, the ads run, and so on. this is called direct sales, and it's tracked again by counting a bunch of visitors, and telling you how much impressions and clicks your marvelous creatives and ad budget generated. now enter google - or more precisely, a technology firm called doubleclick that was to be acquired by google. they developed a tool for automatic ad serving, later to be called programmatic advertising, that keeps the pesky sales dude out of the loop and achieves reasonable amounts of scale for a more hefty price - after all, if the sales are automated, you get a bidding war for attention between different advertisers, and you're paying for clicks. so you can see how this was a strategic move for google - they already had the most valuable data available in this situation. they were seeing in real time what people were searching for, and using the programmatic ad serving system, you could effectively bid not just for general attention - but for attention with an intent to buy. ...and the way that google got this data is because they indexed the web, using bots. at least GoogleBot would identify itself as a site visitor, but in the meantime they developed a service for websites to comprehensively track their own visitors and where they were coming from and what they were doing on your website. incidentally, you could also put on google's ads on your webpage to earn quite a bit of money, as content relevant ads would be shown through the doubleclick system. this kicked off two things: one, the ability to classify your website visitors into different clusters and segments allowed businesses to start tailoring the appearance of the website or service to fit that specific audience segment, starting off the great fracture - segmentation of the web (in the sense that two people viewing the same website at the same time were not seeing the same thing) two, it created a very strong financial incentive for people to trick google into thinking they were having actual human visitors that would click on ads, when in fact they were bots. in an even funnier twist, some of them were from browser hijackers, commonly known as malware at the time, which google cross-financed. look up download valley and crossrider. at the cross section of the above two, you had one interesting twist: websites that would appear differently to the security bots or the compliance officers of Google as they would to fake visitors or malware jacked human beings. the former would get a benign looking website, while the latter would get bombarded with auto clicking ads. this kicked off the billion dollar arms race called online advertising fraud. I'm not here to shed a tear for big money corps bleeding money. the real fallout lay somewhere else, but for that you have to understand that you never really saw the real internet, you only saw your corner and the one that was personalized for you. but if you ever had the pleasure of watching daytime TVs or off channels and witnessing the ads, you could kind of infer what kind of audience must be watching these shows generally. from quite clear rip offs to magic number lotteries and television fortune telling, these sorts of programming was aimed at the most gullible, bought for pennies, where the smallest audience portion had to be converted into a money making operation. ...and with audience segmentation and data gathering, that was now possible at unprecedented scale, automatically. so big was the scale in fact, that it gave birth to an entire new beast of an industry called affiliate marketing, where instead of a regular payroll, you'd get a cut of the sale should you figure out an angle on where to push whatever fucking bullshit the vendors were offering to whoever the fuck would be dumb enough to click on an ad and buy. (the funniest story I recall was someone pulling five figures a month because he figured out that if you buy ads on anime-hentai pages and sell PUA shit courses and e-books you'd make a killing) at any rate, affiliate marketing brought with it the killer landing page, the thing that's supposed to hammer the nail in the coffin once you get through the banner ad. the earliest form of deceptiveness in memory comes from various pirate sites, that had fake download buttons as banner ads and virus alerts as the landing pages. but then at some point, some schmuck realized that for certain type of products, like diet pills or forex trading or whatever, the best lander is in fact a fake news page that comes packed with comments and all. that would convert like crazy, because it had the appearance of social proof. until at least the lawsuits came raining down, and these sorts of landing pages and campaigns for being banned left right and centre on all platforms. which just launched a new arms race as the campaigns would be disguised for the bots doing the checkups, and aged facebook profiles would start selling for like 5K USD - these people were making 30-40k a day, they could afford to spend that much to continue running the shop. speaking of facebook - it came just about the right time for the shit to brew max total. first they were unprecedented in the amount of data they were getting off of their users, and they came just in time to catch the full swing of what we call the 'responsive web' - that no user at the same time would see the same thing on their page, it was all allocated through an intricate web of recommendations, running real time, based on previously gathered and forecast behavioral data. it also ran on one simple premise: take over the starting page position from google for most people, then they do not have to justify, ever, any ad spend that takes place on their platform, as long as it performs. furthermore, it was completely lacking any revenue share sort of scheme (save for the short period of facebook gaming, see Zynga), thus there was no incentive for the amount of bot traffic that the previous internet era had bred. instead, it came with an entirely different one - bots that would offer social proof in the way of shares and likes, but would not directly risk the business model, thus giving no incentive for facebook to fight them. (note that google didn't do much jack shit either besides indiscriminately penalizing websites it deemed suspicious when they reached critical payout thresholds) the rest of the story you kind of sort of know. how the obama campaign was brilliant in using the new social media to inspire hope and blah blah blah, kicking the door open for big money politics who could hire the best snake oil salesmen in the market, who had the data and as you can see from the above, had the ethical standards of a shoe. at around 2014-2015 the press (the mainstream media) started to raise question about the duopoly, the buzzword of filter bubbles started appearing, not entirely unrelated to the fact that facebook by this time cannibalized their traffic with a fucking embedded share / like button and started charging money for them to reach their own audience. after 2016 the cries of fake news were everywhere, because there was no online space left which everyone was viewing the same way, and you had no way to verify what the person next to you was looking at. since then, we've all become grandpa yelling at the television set, with nobody around us seeing what we're seeing on the screen, so we're being accused as bots and looking for bots under the carpet. but it's been a long way coming, and the bots are honestly the least of our worries. trust me, I went bankrupt over that one. truth or fake doesn't even begin to describe the magnitude of the problem: more like we entered the phase where every word, event or picture is defined by who ever the fuck wins the auction over it, as the marketers of human attention grind the gears of the money mill without even understanding how fast they're digging towards hell. don't believe me? look around the marketing and advertising related subs these days. the priests are eating the indulgences, and we're only now entering the period of deep fakes, good algo generated audio and good enough NLP. and in the meantime, the shadowrunners running up between two corp headquarter-highrises are skinning your belief systems. so the best you can do is really, not litter the remnants of cyberspace which are not being mined, astroturfed or being pulled apart by the algos. no human connections on a nuclear trash heap mate.
I’ve been reading these posts on an off for quite some time now and it saddened me to see someone had recently posted their “I quit the game” statement. We all walk through fire to stand in the green valley...and the journey has to be made on foot. And alone. And it’s tough. In response, I wanted to add a list of pointers for people starting out in this insane game and to address what I’ve learned from over a decade of trading Forex. It’s long-ish but it’s based on reality and not a bunch of meaningless retail junk systems and “insider knowledge” by nitwits on YouTube or some 19-year old “whiz kid” who apparently makes ten billion dollars a week with a mystical set-up that’ll only cost you $1,999 to buy! I became a profitable trader by keeping everything simple. I lost thousands when I started out, but I look back now and realise how easily I could’ve avoided those losses. Keep Everything Simple. For the sake of disclosure, I worked for Morgan Stanley for over a decade in fixed income but learned almost everything I know from the forex guys whom I got to know as good friends. They make markets but there’s still a lot to learn from them as a small fry trader. I got into all this as a hobby after annoying the traders with questions, and all these years later it still pays me. There are still occasional nightmare accidents but they’re far rarer to the point where they don’t affect my ROI. Possibly the most clear statement I could make about Forex trading in the large institutional setting is actually a pretty profound one: Forex traders are not what you think they are: every single forex trader I ever worked with (and who lasted the test of time) had the exact same set of personality traits: 1. NOT ONE of them was a gung-ho high-five loudmouth, 2. Every single one of them analysed their mistakes to the point of obsession, 3. They were bookish and not jocks, 4. They had the humility to admit that many early errors were the result of piss-poor planning. The loudmouths last a year and are gone. Guys who last 5, 10, 20 years in a major finance house on the trading floor are nothing like the absurd 1980s Hollywood images you see on your tv; they’re the perfect opposite of that stereotype. The absolute best I ever met was a studious Irish-Catholic guy from Boston who was conscientious, helpful, calm, and utterly committed to one thing: learning from every single error of judgement. To quote him: “Losing teaches you far more than winning”. Enough of that. These points are deliberately broad. Here goes:
Know The Pairs. It amazes me to see countless small account traders speak as though “systems” work across all pairs. They don’t. Trading GBP/CHF is an entirely different beast to trading CHF/JPY. If you don’t know the innate properties of the CHF market or the JPY or the interplay between the AUD and NZD etc then leave them alone until you do. —There’s no rush— Don’t trade pairs until you are clear on what drives ‘commodity currencies’, or what goes on behind currencies which are easily manipulated, or currencies which simply tend to range for months on end instead of having clear trends. Every pair has its own benefits and drawbacks. Google “Tips on trading the JPY” etc etc etc and get to know the personality of these currencies. They’re just products like any other....Would you buy a Honda without knowing a single thing about the brand or its engine or its durability? So why trade a currency you know nothing about?
Indicators are only telling you what you should be able to see in front of you: PRICE AND MARKET STRUCTURE. Take everything off your charts and simply ask one question: What do I see happening right here and right now? What time frame do I see it on? If you can’t spot a simple consolidation, an uptrend, or a downtrend on a quick high-versus-low time frame scan then no indicator on the planet will help you.
Do you know why momentum indicators work on clear trends but are often a complete disaster on ranges? If not, why not? Do you know why such indicators are losing you tons of trades on low TFs? Do you actually understand the simple mathematics of any indicator? If the answer to these questions is “no” then why are you using these things and piling on indicator after indicator after indicator until you have some psychedelic disco on your screen that looks like an intergalactic dogfight in Star Wars? Keep it simple. Know thy indicator.
Risk:Reward Addiction. The greatest profit killer. So you set up your stops and limits at 1:1.5 or whatever and say “That’s me done” only to come back and see that your limit was missed by a soul-crushing 5 pips before reversing trend to cost you $100, $200, $1000. So you say “Ah but the system is fine”. Guys...this isn’t poker; it doesn’t have to be a zero sum game. Get over your 1:1.5 addiction —The Market Does Not Owe You 50 Pips— Which leads to the next point which, frankly, is what has allowed me to make money consistently for my entire trading life...
YOU WILL NEVER GO BROKE TAKING A PROFIT. So you want to take that 50-pip profit in two hours because some analyst says it’ll happen or because your trend lines say it has to happen. You set your 1:1.5 order. “I’ll check where I’m at in an hour” you say. An hour later you see you’re up 18 pips and you feel you’re owed more by now. “If I close this trade now I could be missing out on a stack”. So what?! Here’s an example: I trade in sterling. I was watching GBP climb against it’s post-GDP flop report and once I was up £157 I thought “This is going to start bouncing off resistance all morning and I don’t need the hassle of riding the rollercoaster all day long”. So I closed it, took the £157, went to make breakfast. Came back shortly afterwards and looked at the chart and saw that I could’ve made about £550 if I’d trusted myself. Do I care? Absolutely not...in fact it usually makes me laugh. So I enter another trade, make another quick £40, then another £95. Almost £300 in less than 45 mins and I’m supposed to cry over the £250 I “missed out on”?
£300 in less than an hour for doing nothing more than waiting for some volatility then tapping a keyboard. It’s almost a sin to make money that easily and I don’t “deserve” any of it. Shut off the laptop. Go out for the day. Does the following sound familiar? “Okay I’m almost at my take-profit...almost!.....almost!....okay it’s bouncing away from me but it’ll come back. Come back, damnit!! Jesus come back to my limit! Ah for F**k’s sakes!! This is complete crap; that trade was almost done! This is rigged! This is worse than poker! This is total BS!!” So when you were 50% or 75% toward your goal and could see the trade slipping away why wasn’t $100 or $200 enough? You need more than that?...really?! So point 6:
Tomorrow Is Another Day. Lordy Lordy, you only made $186 all day. What a disaster! Did you lose anything? Nope. Will the market be open again tomorrow? Yep. Does London open in just four hours? Yep. Is the NOK/SGD/EUR whatever still looking shitty? Yep. So let it go- there are endless THOUSANDS of trades you can make in your lifetime and you need to let a small gain be seen for what it is: ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL PROFIT.
Four or five solid but small profits in a day = One Large Profit. I don’t care how I make it, I don’t care if it’s ten lots of £20, I don’t care if I make the lot in a single trade in 30 seconds either. And once I have a nice sum I switch the computer off and leave it the Fk alone. I don’t care if Brexit is due to detonate the pound or if some Fed guy is going to crap all over the USD in his speech; I’ve made my money and I’m out for the day. There will be other speeches, other detonations. I could get into the entire process by which I trade but it’s aggravatingly basic trend-following mostly based on fundamentals. Losing in this business really does boil down to the same appalling combination of traits that kill most traders: Greed, Impatience, Addiction. Do I trade every day? Absolutely not; if there’s nothing with higher probability trades then I just leave it alone. When I hit my target I’m out for the day- the market doesn’t give a crap about me and I don’t give a crap about the market, if you see my meaning. I played poker semi-professionally for two years and it’s absolutely soul-destroying to be “cold decked” for a whole week. But every player has to experience it in order to lose the arrogance and the bravado; losing is fine as long as you learn from it. One day you’ll be in a position to fold pocket Kings because you’ll know you’re dead in the water. The currency markets are exactly the same in that one regard: if you learn from the past you’ll know when it’s time to get out of that stupid trade or that stupid “system” that sounded so great when you had a demo account. Bank a profit. Keep your charts simple. Know the pairs. Be patient. Touch nothing till you understand it inside out. And if you’re not enjoying the game....STOP PLAYING. [if people find this helpful I might post a thread on the best books I’ve studied from and why most forex books are utterly repetitious bullshit]. Peace.
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Hi, Sorry in advance for the wall of text! Recently I've tried to add more long term investing to my skills repetoire. I have developed a strategy that provides buy/sell signals based on a weekly time frame for Commodities, Indices, Bonds, and even Forex. Along with this I've created my own system for portfolio optimisation using all assets my broker provides. In tandem this has proven to be a pretty killer combo, from backtesting anyway. I've tried to implement all of this into some forward testing on my demo account but am having issues understanding how to execute everything correctly. To help make it clearer I'll outline the basics of how my system works: Once a week just before weekly candle close, my software will calculate how to best allocate my capital amongst a number of assets - for example, 60% in a US index, 20% in a Euro bond, 20% in Gold - this is assuming my trading system agrees all of these assets are suitable to go long. If for example it deems Gold to not be a good trade, the software will allocate 20% of my capital to the next best thing, Silver for example, then checks against the strategy etc, until everything agrees. Let's assume I have a trading account with $10,000 in and ready to trade/invest. Due to different margin requirements of each asset being traded, and the fact the price of certain indices may exceed $20,000 or so, it's harder than just allocating 60% of $10,000 towards a US index for example. For my more traditional trading, it's easy to calculate position sizes when the risk percentage and distance to stop loss are known. But with the new strategy, no stop loss is calculated and it is only made clear next week once the software and strategy are run whether a current open position needs closing, or if it needs to be increased/decreased in size at all. Therefore my question is how do I determine position size for each asset? My leverage is fixed for the entire account so that can't be variable per trade. I can't allocate a huge amount of my available margin, as worst case I could have a week which results in a relatively large percentage loss and I'd prefer to not get a midweek margin call. With a much larger investing account the maths all makes sense to me, but trying to accomplish all of this with a smaller amount makes the sizing and management of traders much more difficult to figure out in my head. Thanks in advance for any tips/advice. I apologise if a topic similar to this has been brought up previously or if I'm missing something obvious! I hope everything made sense and please let me know if you have any more questions or need any more info on my system etc.
You have a chart in front of you, a buy and sell button respectively, this basically gives you 50% of probability that if you open a buy or sell at any time your action will end up making money after sometime. "Sometime" adds new variables to the game and makes it more complicated: is knowing the direction for sometime, the market needs to move to increase profit or increase loss. You then go into the volatility reports for lets say EURUSD, and you see that during London session and New York session, it's the time where price statistically moves more, so there is where you want to be if you want to day trade (open and close trades in the same day), this can be also noticed if you zoom out for example M5 of almost any pairs, volume will be bigger in this two sessions. Ok so you have statistics of at what times it may move big, you also know that it may not move or it may range the whole day, but definitely there is going to be big moves. If you analyse the past, with only for example a 30 MA, you will see the 50/50. What else do you need? To be in most of the times you are humanly able following the trend, if price is averaging over any average you want and see useful to add, why would you bet that is not going to average oveunder it for some more time? Add a 1000 MA, what if you waited for each cross and traded it trend following? Here then comes a "must": money management = risk = stay in the game for long = you can lose multiple times and long term it's hard that you even lose 10% of your account. Start with the minimum risk, demo in 0.01. Why? If you can consistently win with 0.01 it's just a matter of optimizing the statistics your demo trading over time has thrown, money will come, lots of it, the amount your confidence as a trader can bear and ultimately because trading is so big and involves almost all of the aspects of your life and personality, your confidence as a human being can bear. But this is skipping to psychology. So, volatility, an average of some x periods to get the trend (not of the market but of the x periods in relation to the market and time, x is important, x can't be 2000 in M5), money management and time to play. What else? When will you close the trades? There are multiple ways each one with pros and cons, price crossing the average (too slow sometimes), price hitting fibos (gotta have a method for plotting fibos the same time each time, check the "Do it yourself" section, 61.8 a.k.a 0.618 and 61.8, god made numbers), being this last one the one I like. Price plays with these levels, nothing magical about it, is just "nature", a forgotten and violated term these days IMHO. There it is, when to open with probability, when to close methodically, how to play your money so you last as long as you don't fail too much repeatedly. This results after studying Ralph Elliot's, W Gann's, Wykcoff's, Pesavento's, Gartley's, Carney's and some others WAY TO LOOK AT THE MARKET. They all found structure in price actions over time, they all understood natural patterns that occur, they all sat in front of some charts, used or created tools for handling those charts, in the end everything is so simple and easy that our minds, past, maybe present, the t.v, Instagram won't lets us succeed. Why? Your mind is your biggest enemy of what you want to do in life. How? Your past in someway defines you, defines what you are looking for in life. Psychology, establishment and relativity. Mark Douglas introduced me (in his videos) to a new way of thinking towards trading. He speaks about beliefs, how they drives us in each decision we make each day from as simple as making coffee, having a bath, dressing nice or dressing in the first place. Beliefs are what makes your past define you today and tomorrow if you keep believing them. A wrong belief of yourself, a wrong belief of the world outside your eyes, a wrong belief of the market (you keep trusting other people about the market, in the end after loosing you trust no one), this leads to what lot's of gurus outside the financial world, will say: trust in yourself. Forex gurus tell you to trust them, pay them so they'll unveil the secrets. No money can change your wrong mindset, that feeling in your chest each time you think about possibilities with Forex (euphoria, dangerous as f not only in forex), that belief that some magical indicator will come, some hidden code of some pro advanced indi if you are more realist, some guy with the answer. You are very alone in this world my friend, money will tear countries apart, cities apart, families apart. People will sell their face for some money, their name, in the end corrupt politicians that don't get caught will enjoy their feasts everyday, with their innocent childs, who see their daddy as their hero, this is not a fair world, what's fair in the first place? A human creation so we can live together in peace, but that's not reality we all know. We are evoluted chimps, we still feel what the cheetah feel's in front of his prey, we share 90% of DNA with most of mammals, as intelligent as we like to think we are, we can't delete our nature, our hunger, our fear, our needs, our instinct (the one rushes adrenaline when you know you are losing too much), because deep inside we all know whats right or wrong, the difference between people is whether you hear that voice, or you shut it with a nicer version. 90% of people in forex (not real statistics, the real number varies from broker hmmm brokers another shady topic), prefers the nice version long term, which results not profitable basically. It's your version (you + all gurus you've seen) not the version the market shows and the deep-you tries to alert. I headed far from an important topic: gurus telling to trust them, a killer market killing you, lots of misinformation around the WWW and you not believing in yourself. What else do you have to face the markets? You are in a triangle: broker (not so hard to get a nice one), market and yourself. Everything else is a lie until the person who is in any way selling you stuff, shows you his profitable record of more than 6 months in any financial instrument, that you look at yourself in the mirror and you can say I trust him, not I want to trust him (even if it's some of each, but hey everything involves risk). LOOK AT THE CHARTS. Want to have "fast money" (intraday), look M1 to M30, even H1 for a bird's view, optimize your profitable and consistent demo results to that market; want to look charts once a day, trade D1, I'd say you don't even have to look at something bigger as it is big enough and you can go to H4 or H1 for finesse entries (can become a vicious circle, how much finesse is finesse?). It's all about trust, confidence and a good plan. Psychology of yourself is so vast, and so unique to each person that I would dare to say that if you are looking for the answer outside of you, you better befriend a trader who is today making money and pray that he literally gifts you his confidence (not his knowledge even if it can help, hi will be sharing his confidence). Your social mind will spawn the hype, the euphoria, you will succeed for a while, market will kill you sooner or later, you will help the market to kill your account. Why? Because your confidence wasn't real, it may be that that day, that week the market moved nicely, or you felt strong and super. How many gurus go live and say "hey today, as a human being, I don't feel great, I would not trade today?" none. They say market is not right ATM, cherry picking, they totally exploit that you can't go inside their screens and really know them, here comes the version you want to believe, you will tell yourself anything, you will tell anyone anything. Here to finish, I'll say that consistency in anything in life starts from yourself. If you can't be consistent everyday with yourself for a long period of time, you will find temporary jobs, temporary stuff, you will keep jumping from gurus, from strategies, you will create better versions on your head, just imagine what version a guru must have created to go and sell forex related stuff instead of searching for how to kill the markets, he may be doing both, in the end none of that will give you anything, you will end up being the stair to the gurus goals. Try to comprehend how human we are, how arrogant we are from a farmers perspective, how or evolution results in our minds plays us tricks, to think the government is real, to think there's order, justice, to think that we can achieve huge things with the help of YouTube videos or paying another human being, the market is flow, manipulation is real (why call it manipulation when you would be doing the same in their shoes(big boys)) is part of the nature of anything you plot with Y and X axis (look for a graph of population changes, harmonics, double bottoms, double tops, in a population changes graph? how can that be?), it may be a cliche but is aaaaaaall an illusion guys, the truth is not good business for the other side of the trades. See you on the other side. "I'll be a big noise with all the big boys"
Hello guys i hope this story is not going to take your time more than 10 mintues, but believe me every second will be worth of it. So i wanted to share my story of 1year nofap, my life before starting nofap, while i was on nofap the good, the bad … i started this challenge 23 august 2018 and to be honest with you guys it was hard and somehow i failed. Yes i did ejaculate , yes i did edge and hell yes i watched porn but i still saw some benefits and still learned something. But before i continue with my story i want to tell you that the reason why i want to share my story with you is because i don’t see people posting videos that they failed on this journey at least maybe on their 1st attempt, they all seem like they are succeeding on their first attempt, and i am not saying that is not possible, but i want to support guys who started the journey and they failed just like me. so here we go… i started my journey on 23.august.2018 and i still remember my last time that i watched porn hard before starting this journey and that happened 2 days before i started nofap.( I remember masturbating and than feeling really low energy and i started searching on youtube if Masturbating kills your gains, or does masturbating effects your growth of muscles, because i was a person who wanted to have a nice body and i used to workout at the gym but i wasn’t building muscles or gaining weight. I am 187 cm or 6.1 foot long and i was always a skinny guy, i had 75-78 Kg average not to skinny but not even like a regular person compared to how i was trying to lift. So after searching on youtube i found nofap challenge, and believe me i was so interested to know about this nofap challenge so i watched a ton of nofap videos that are on youtube and i saw many people explaining the dark side of masturbating and watching porn and the life changing benefits that you can get from NOFAP/NOPMO … and that is the moment where i realized that porn and masturbating made my life shit, i had anxiety, i was very very very unconfident guy, i was low energy, not motivated, not having balls to approach any girl that i liked etc…. So before talking to the benefits that i have seen or i have felt i will tell you shortly how my life was 3-4 years before i started nofap. I was in a relationship with a girl in my high school since march 2012 until we broke up on november 2016, just trying to explain shortly… so 4 years in a relationship, but on our 3rd year things were getting wrong, we were not happy with our relationship and many other relationship problems, but i remember on that year i used to watch porn a lot, and i remember after going out with her, whenever i came back at home i used to watch porn and masturbate, somehow i wasn’t feeling the joyful moment with her compared to how i was feeling with porn. And almost 1 year later we broke upppp, so my point of this story is that porn destroyed my relationship, within a year, porn it’s a slow killer and you just won’t notice it, you see things in life not going well but you will never notice its because of porn, as much as depressed you are as much as porn you are going to look. Because that;s the only thing that can make your dopamine get higher, or maybe it is the only thing that takes your problems away for a short period of time. I remember i was trying to study hard for my exams, i was in faculty of mechanical enginnering but everytime i was trying to learn more than 1 hour i was feeling very sleepy and very low energy, so every time i was feeling low energy i used to watch porn and masturbate, i didn’t know that porn was the problem, I was just bored and low energy so i decided let’s watch some porn. I continued like this for more than 1/2 year Until i ended on youtube looking for masturbating side effects and ended up finding NOFAP. By the way since i broke up with my girlfriend i never had any other girlfriend, i liked a girl on my university but because of anxiety i was never able to approach her, even though she semmed to like me but still i had no balls to talk to her even when we were walking in front of each other in the opposite direction, and guess what ? She is in a relationship now and i really felt bad when i saw her with her boyfriend walking and holding their hands together. I said to myself, look what porn did to me, look what you lost because of anxiety and being so unconfident, i really felt like a failure a really sad moment…. but at least i was able to graduate from my university. Soo now let’s start telling you about my nofap journey. But before i start ,if you start nofap you have to have goals or ask yourself what is your goal to achive with nofap/nopmo, why are you doing this ? If your answer is because i am bored with my life, i want a better life … It’s okey but have goals first, because if you start with no goals you may be on a 2 months strike and if you are not having any benefit, you will quit. My goal on nofap is to increase confidence. THATS IT… Why confidence? Because being confident is all you need. Girls loveee confident guys, in fact everybody loves confident people. And as i am a forex trader, confidence is much much needed when trading. So i started my nofap challenge on 23.august.2018, it was great on my first 5-6 days, because i could go without ejaculating for 4-5 days even when i was not doing nofap. But after day 7 i started feeling the need of masturbating, and instead of masturbating i started edging, i was touchin my dick and using my imagination and i was able to feel good … So after day 7, almost every day i was edging but i was not feeling the need of looking at porn and i said myself why do people struggle so much getting rid of porn? It was easy for me not to look at porn on that first month. No changes, not even feeling anything better, the only change i saw was Women attraction. Yes even though i was not feeling anything better inside me, not even looking better anything, girls/womans were looking at me, they were turning they head to look at me and i said to myself wooow, how i am attracing girls/boys/people/mean/woman without feeling anything better. But it was because of holding my sement on my body and not ejaculating. So if you don’t throw/waste that sement, if you don’t throw it away, girls-womans even guys will look at you more, they will feel your power. Guys will say wow he is cool, and womans will say wow he is a real man. That’s just the point of why sement makes you more attractive to people, it makes you more masculine, but the benefit of sement preservation doesn’t stop here, belive me since i started nopmo i started gaining wheight, i was skinny and people that are fat when they start nopmo they are more likely to lose weight, so benefits in both people skinny or fat it doesn’t matter, i am more powerful at gym, my knees don’t crackle like they used to… and do you know why ?? Because of that powerfull minerals, vitamins, nutritions that we used to through it cheaply with masturbation.. now is hold and used in my body. So the first benefit was women attraction… So my second benefit is actually not masturbating, and if you are saying wtf is this guy saying, just think for a second, I am not wasting my time every day for 1 hour to watch porn, opening multiple tabs of porn to watch, i am using that time on other stuff to do , so that is a worth mentioning benefit. My third benefit was that i had more energy to do things, and more power to train harde lift heavier. Before i finish, i found my key to not watch porn anymore and not edge or masturbate. I don’t know how much you guys are religious buy i made a promise to god, that i won’t ever watch porn and masturbate anymore. (I know it sound dumb to some people but since that day i never even thought of doing POM because i would feel so shame on myself that i broke my promise to god for a short imagination of happiness). Before i started nofap my confidence on a scale from 0 to 10 was -8, yeap -8 so unconfident… And now that i am on nofap my confidence is like -3… still not confident but i won;t give up. I know good days will come ! On my photos RED cross means (Realpse, sometimes with Porn), a weat dream is with a blue circle or a sleepy emoji. Little suggestion: Stop getting to day 0 after a relapse, just continue the journey just like i did, and you will get to a point that you will look and will say “I only relapsed 3 times last month compared to when i was on PMO and that’s a good sign of a good life that will come to you”. If you are horny and you want to relapse, just think how shit your life is. Try it and feel like a piece of shit and remember that moment, so when you get horny again after a long streak just remember how you felt last time after a relapse, and that will make you to go stronger. Lastly even when you see and feel the benefits, this NoPMO lifestyle it’s so hard when you have urges so you don’t even care about benefits, but if you resist you will level up my friend. It’s up to you guys ! STAY STRONG https://preview.redd.it/f2utcp0z1si31.png?width=3000&format=png&auto=webp&s=616e7e5f2a5ce7a05c9372cd74b40fa0cc244d13 https://preview.redd.it/gb0akm0z1si31.jpg?width=1920&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b51c1daddfa0367e14bf17e609d2b6e0f0cf2700
Greetings! I just have a few questions regarding finance and wanted to see if anyone had some input/wisdom/advice that helped them when they had similar issues. I don't expect anyone to go into detail or anything, but Im sorta lost at this point and had a feeling coming here might be helpful... So, if you decide to read & post I want to say in advance THANK YOU! I know you have better things to do with your time so I SINCERELY appreciate your time and input, I cant stress this enough. Ill try to keep this brief but it is a few questions and they cover a broad spectrum of topics, situations and variables, Im trying to keep it as simple as possible...just "big picture" or "general idea" answers would suffice, I can fill in the details and do the leg work, I just need help being set in the right direction or frame of mind from people who have done it. So some quick, basic info that might help you guage what kinda input to give... Im 25 years old, I am unmarried with no kids and no plans to get married or have kids. I have a longtime girlfriend but we share the same sentiment about marriage and kids ( Thank God ;p ) I live in my fathers home rent free while he spends the next few years in his RV across the states, until then I have a great opportunity to save money that would otherwise go to rent. As of this moment, I am unemployed but that will change pretty soon.... I don't have any degrees...I don't have a savings account but I opened a Stash app account where I keep money in stocks and bonds, it has around $2000 in it. I live in Boise Id, im open to moving but would prefer not to. Boise isn't a large city, theres not much opportunity here. I have no other obligations currently that would interfere with any suggestions. With that being said, here is where I am at.... Ive always wanted to work for myself since I was young. After almost a decade in the work force its become painfully clear that its what I need to be doing. Ive also undergone a drastic mindset regarding the spending of my money, as little as 6 months ago I was spending money on WORTHLESS crap I didn't need compulsively. Maybe Ive matured, but I have been trying so hard to break this mindset, however, old habits die hard... As my thoughts have been geared more towards working for myself and saving money, Ive also thought about passive income/ investing as well. ENTREPENEURS=> I am curious what you guys did when you first started? I have the drive, the work ethic, the intelligence and will to succeed but I fall short in the first step which is an idea...somewhere to start. Buying something and selling it? Cleaning pools? Obviously Im not going to go buy a Pizza Hut as I lack the capital so I need ideas for small scale, low overhead and expense projects that I can grow off of and branch out of...What I have done is turn my aquarium hobby into a little side income, I breed Cherry Shrimp and sell them, I am going to post on eBay and see how it goes and possibly expand on that. That's the one and only idea Ive had. Its not that I am stupid, Ive always had a high IQ and all, but I think I tend to doubt myself too much, overthink 5 steps ahead...I digress, anyway, I am great with people, Ive worked and done well in a wide range of jobs as well....I don't have to enjoy the work itself, I still care about doing the job well and helping the company so I am open to a wide range of suggestions. Desk work, sales work, whatever. Im just curious what got beginning entrepreneurs started off and how did you get and find ideas? Its this block in my head...its so stupid, I cannot come up with the initial idea. Once I do get an initial idea, its off to the races. I build off of it, make it efficient, reinvest profits, strategize how to expand, the trick is finding the idea. All the stuff I do manage to think of seems inefficient and like it wouldn't work. I hate asking for charity so I sincerely offer compensation if someone wanted to really sit down and exchange some emails and help me get on the path to success...Im realistic as well, Im not expecting someone to hand me the blueprints to a company, just advice on how to find ideas on my own. SAVING=> I was bad with money until about 10 months ago, Id spend it as quick as I got it. On stupid shit too, wow I get mad at myself thinking about it. The problem is, despite wanting and trying to change I find myself still doing this, let me give an example to show you what I mean: I go to PetSmart to get Cat Food. As im driving there I mentally know I don't need anything else and don't want too waste money. In and out. After years of blowing money on crap I never use its getting old, ya know? I get into the store, get the cat food and without even realizing it my brain pulls a sneaky on me, it says, "I know you wont buy anything, but lets at least look at fish while were here.". Its like it has its own agenda, it knows if it can trick me into going over, Ill end up buying fish and I do. Its ridiculous. Had a big problem with clothes for a while too, and when I was younger im ashamed to admit, pain killers :/ . Obviously, I struggle with instant gratification and compulsive buying. Has anyone else had to break this habbit? I have the desire to, a little guidance would be a blessing...a mind trick, meditation, hiding your money ( LOL ) , any weird little tips or tricks that may have helped you would be helpful! INVESTING & PASSIVE INCOME=> I suppose this goes back to working for myself and saving combined... but I wanted to touch on it specifically... Am I trying to juggle too much? I mean, if Im trying to start off being an entrepreneur is it wise to put money into long term investment options? Should I keep my capital liquid incase I need it for investment opportunities? What are some ways you've invested? Did you hire a broker or DIY? I installed Stash, Robin Hood and the Forex Game... Right now Im using Stash as my savings account ( It is giving me more interest than ANY checking acct haha ). seems its better off to invest my money myself on apps, or keep it liquid for opportunities...I hope Im making sense. As you can see, I am over thinking this and wanna see what other people did/ would do in their mid 20s. Worth mentioning that I don't do half bad investing myself...I just do Blue Chips and high dividend bonds. I really don't do anything more than a "Moderate" risk, I put my money into companies I know wont fail: Berkshire Hathaway, Boeing, Johnson&Johnson, GE, Pfizer. For me, its doing well. Im not taking big risks, Im viewing it as a savings account and I always reinvest dividends. Basically, im just trying to get my life straight. Im also trying to develop better lifestyle habits too, not staying up late, eating healthy, drinking enough water and stuff like that. Maybe I am trying to think about too much and should just do 1 thing, problem is, IDK what that 1 thing should be!! I feel like I waited 25 years to be responsible so Im getting all the stress from trying to break years and years of slacking and bad habbits . I don't have any friends that I can talk to about this stuff which is another area of my life I need to improve on. I am so tired of associating with unintelligent losers with no drive. Im afraid that I wasted 25 years of my life. I know this was a mess, I apologize. Just wanna stress Im not expecting anyone to read & respond to all of this. I was just hoping someone who could relate to an area of this could share some experience they had, just a sentence or two even. The more detail the better but I realize im asking perfect strangers to spend their time to be my life coach lol. Thank you, thank you thank you thank you.
It feels like we’re about month six into an indefinite branding war with the mainstream financial community and even some of our own over whether bitcoin per se, or blockchain technology (sans deflationary currency) is the winning fintech innovation from 2009. And admittedly, there are good arguments against bitcoin becoming a legitimate currency — or even a rails of payments used by anyone who prefers to keep their bank account intact and stay on the right side of the law. For instance, there is still institutional fear that the technology is infeasible to use for payments because it’s impossible to reverse charges, and difficult to surveil the bitcoin network for bad actors and black market transactions (both problems seem solvable by bitcoin startups). There is wariness to buy-in to the “bitcoin as a backbone” argument where institutions hide the currency and use the tech and its token behind the scenes, mainly because bitcoin is still (according to its own chief scientist) in a beta release. The security of the network is still relatively weak, and hundred billion dollar multi-nationals aren’t going to invest in a network that might cease to exist in five years without any clear contingency plans. As a Bitcoin permabull, these short term challenges don’t bother me. But I list them because they are rational concerns and ones that will take years to quell at an institutional level. In the meantime, you’ll see dabbling in alternative protocols like Ripple and Stellar and Ethereum and Hyperledger, and (gasp) these same institutions will even fork open-source code and make it their own. (Michael Lewis writes in Flash Boys about the laughable degree to which Goldman makes open-source code their own “IP”.) I think Tim Swanson’s paper nailed it (for the most part) and that this experimentation with blockchain-not-bitcoin is perfectly fine. Bitcoin might not ultimately make it as a currency in the world’s largest economies, and it might prove to be a pretty poor store of value if its corresponding tech is relegated to second-tier status in favor of a more government/bank friendly protocol. With that in mind, competition is healthy and new ideas are welcome when it comes blockchain tech, I think. But there is a huge caveat. The longer that bitcoin survives, the more likely it is to disrupt a large swath of developing economy currencies. I’m increasingly convinced that Wences et al have been right all along with bitcoin as a value store (reserve) emerging as its hidden-in-plain-sight killer app. In a stroke of irony, we might be looking at 50–50 odds that bitcoin’s character arc goes from cryptoanarchist currency, to commodity that powers 1.0 financial technology, and back to functional currency reserve for much of the developing world. And if that’s where it settles for the medium-term, it would still be a phenomenal outcome. Consider: Bitcoin inflation slows to ~4% by 2017 — reasonable by most any economist’s modern standards and not too far off of the target thresholds for most central banks. This is also a predictable 4%. Yes, that figure belies the forex swings that bitcoin will inevitably experience as a young currency, but the rate of seignorage will still be quite low. And less new bitcoin money creation will inevitably reduce sell-side pressure from miners as a percentage of total network transactions. That could and probably will help the market stabilize enough to price more and cheaper derivatives to hedge out volatility for those who don’t want it. Consider: Most developing economy currencies suck, and will be debased into oblivion within two decades, if not much sooner. If you believe your current currency has a 50% chance of being completely destroyed in the next ten years, and think bitcoin has a 50% chance of being alive at all, it makes sense to buy bitcoin with your less sexy currency. It probably only takes one country to start buying bitcoin for their central bank (as if it’s gold), for others to follow suit in rapid succession. (FWIW, Gyft’s Vinny Lingham, who has proven to have an uncanny knack for picking the price trends that matter, agrees with me.) Consider: Dozens of countries around the world already operate on a two currency system with the US dollar as a viable alternative to their local options. Economists’ dismissiveness of bitcoin as a potential reserve currency on the grounds that “governments and their central banks would never cede that kind of monetary control” ignores pretty much all of the evidence that already exists which shows how it is an extremely rare luxury to live in a country with a central bank that has any flexibility whatsoever with respect to monetary policy. i.e. if a country’s central bank stores dollars and gold, it might like BTC. Consider: Not even the US dollar is likely to be the world’s reserve currency in 20 years. I have begged on social media for some smart economist to refute this, but none have so far. It’s easy to look at our surging economy and think “we’re still the best”, but China’s economy will dwarf our own by 2040. India will likely eclipse us as well. And its a slam dunk that frontier markets will continue to command a larger chunk of the global GDP pie. (Europe is still probably screwed.) In a world where the US is the second or third largest economy in the world and commands 15% of its GDP rather than 25%, who honestly thinks the greenback is going to be the only currency reserve? (That’s not rhetorical, by the way. Send me a counter-argument and I’ll reprint it.) If all that is true, then it follows: In a world where even the mack daddy of all fiat reserve currencies is dethroned, and a neutral, stable, predictable alternative exists, some countries are going to start taking a chance on bitcoin. It really only takes one successful experiment to create a domino effect, and those tier II (and III and IV) government currencies will collectively fade to black. The longer bitcoin survives, the longer we have to build the robust infrastructure to support a fully functional bitcoin ecosystem that could swoop in to support an entire small country. All we need to do is stay heads down and wait for one regional storm to brew in a world that is frankly already plagued by currency wars. In a stroke of irony, policymakers and Keynesian economists might finally see the “bancor” global reserve currency that their idol John Maynard Keynes proposed 80 years ago. Only it will sneak up on them from the frontier. And it will be completely beyond their control.
Motivational Post No: 3 - Learning to Become a Successful Trader
Follow up from previous post:https://www.reddit.com/Forex/comments/5s0kamotivational_post_no_2_how_long_did_it_take_to/ Sharing another one I liked, I would pick this one as the best out of the 3 I've posted, this one is educational as well. Anyway, is theformatting alright, anything I can change to make it easier to read this wall of text? Thanks. POST: Learning to Become a Successful Trader The following was posted as a comment by Ziad in reply to a post on Michael Brenke's Blog, but I'm posting it here (with Ziad's permission) because I believe it contains extremely valuable and genuine insights coming from a very disciplined and successful trader. I would also like to include the following quote by Dr.Brett Steenbarger "Too many traders are looking for setups, when in fact they're the ones being set up." Hi Michael, I've been reading your blog for quite a while now but haven't commented yet. However, I feel I need to comment now. If you don't mind I'm going to be very straight forward, and blunt even, but I hope you'll take it from a spirit of sincerity and genuine desire to help. It's going to be a long comment, so I'm going to break it up into 2 or 3 comments. Here's the situation as I see it: For the last few months, and possibly much longer, you've just been spinning your wheels while thinking that you are getting somewhere. The reason for this is that you are going about learning how to trade in the wrong way, in my opinion. I say this because I've been trading much less than you, a little over 2 years now, and yet because of the way I went about learning and what I focused on, last year I netted $150k while nearly quintupling my account, without a single losing month, and while only risking a very small portion of my account on any single trade. Now there could be many reasons for the difference in performance, but I think one of the main reasons has to do with what you are focusing on and how you are going about the learning process. To try to put it as succinctly as possible, in my view traders that are focusing all their attention on "set-ups" and finding out which combinations of indicators work are never going to become profitable. They are trying to follow the advice of trading books that say trading is simple and psychology is everything. So they search for set-ups that 'work', and that can take the guess work out of trading. They want to be "disciplined" and have simple rules that guide all their actions. But there's a few problems with this. Namely, while psychology is HUGE, it's not everything. And while trading is all about simple principles, actually having an edge is NOT simple. It's a myth that you can have a couple simple price or indicator set-ups and make money consistently if only you are disciplined. That's a load of crap. It keeps the dream alive for wannabe traders who never realize what it's truly about. Well let me tell you what it's truly about... Trading is about being okay with ambiguity. It's about tolerating confusion. It's about sitting with discomfort and being at peace with it. It's about not having an exact script of when to trade or not to trade, or what's really a high odds trade, and being okay with that. It's about exceptions to the rules. It's about contradiction. It's about uncertainty. And yet traders left and right want to make it simple. They want to reduce it to a few simple set-ups to trade with discipline. And yet the market is not simple. The market is all about uncertainty, and complexity, and ambiguity. Simple set-ups could never capture that, and they can never give you a true lasting edge. So what's the solution? Is the problem in the simple set-ups themselves? No, it's in how they're being used. The bottom line is, every trader needs to learn to READ the markets. This means that simple rules will not do. There has to be a synthesis of different elements (whether they be price action, indicators, inter-market themes or whatever), and real-time interpretation must take place. It has to be all about CONTEXT. Once you can read the markets, and don't fool yourself it is a very complex process, then you can choose to employ "simple" set-ups to enter and exit. But the real work will be in interpreting the market to see when you should use which kind of set-up. Seeing a hammer or whatever near a support means nothing unless you've identified the broader picture and gotten a sense of the kind of tactics you should be using, and what the odds are for different scenarios unfolding. Now I know you, and most traders do this to a certain extent, but your main focus is on the set-ups. It's not on reading the market from minute to minute, hour to hour, figuring out the odds of it doing this or doing that, adapting dynamically, and thinking of trade ideas from all your observation as the day unfolds. Rather, it's waiting for some simple set-up to pop up and then taking it. Now is it easier emotionally to have clear set-ups to wait for and trade in this simple manner? Absolutely. But who said 'easy' would make you money. If I've learned anything, it's that the market rewards what is hard to do. It's hard to have ambiguity surrounding your market reads. It's hard being uncertain. It's hard dealing with competing and sometimes conflicting signs. And yet, this is what it's all about. You have to stop trying to avoid this by needing things to be clear cut. And is it hard to be disciplined when there's so much uncertainty about what is the right trade to make? Of course. But instead of trying to avoid the uncertainty by looking for simple set-ups, or some straight-forward method, train your mind to be able to deal with the uncertainty. As for the learning process of how you go about doing this, it's all about being constantly engaged with the markets, trying to figure things out and learn from experience. For me, for instance, what I did was each and every day take notes in a journal all about market action and what I think it means, and how I should trade, and what is working and what's not. I didn't write a journal describing the trades I took, or what my emotions were during the day. It was all about market action. And it was all my perception and interpretation. Day after day, week after week, making mistakes, wrong calls, being clueless as to what was going on, not knowing how I should trade, not knowing if my views made sense or not, and yet I continued taking notes and learning. Then I would view charts and combinations of historical intraday charts, and I'd note certain behavior. For example, I'd study trend day after trend day and try to notice what they had in common and how I could have picked up on it in real time. Then I'd study range days. Then I'd study a price chart of the ES versus the Advance decline line and see what the relationship was across many different days. Then I'd do the same with the ES and TICK chart. And on and on. Over time, this gave me a feel for the markets, and a certain understanding of how certain days differ and many subtle signs and tells for each type of environment and context. As for set-ups, I didn't use any predefined ones. I just formed trading ideas and then tried to get in at good trade locations. Even this, which is the art of execution, is quite complicated and not straight forward. I started realizing that in some environments it's best to wait for pullbacks, in others I need to get in at market or I'll be left in the dust. In some markets I can buy low and sell high, in other markets the opposite is in order. And so on. I became consistently profitable in a timeframe of a few months by doing this. But of course before that I had read 30 or 40 books and so I had all the technical background. I had also worked a lot on my psychology and personal issues. But all of this was in conjunction with a method of learning and trading the markets that was mostly in opposition to what the general wisdom says about simple set-ups and exact rules. Now of course you might say that everyone has their own style, some discretionary and some not. Absolutely. But even the purely mechanical traders are very adept at reading markets, and are aware of all of the complexity and ambiguity inherent in it. Their system might end up being simple, but it will come about through a very deep and complex understanding of markets. And usually this system will take the market environment (i.e. context) into account. It wont just be simple mindless set-ups. In the end, all of what I am saying is meaningless unless you come to a personal realization. Take a look at your trading career thus far. Do you truly believe that if you just learn to focus and take all of your set-ups then your equity curve will reverse and you'll be a consistently profitable trader? Why would the world's top institutions spend millions and billions on R&D when a few simple set-ups could make them all of the money. This doesn't mean that to make money you need extremely complex mathematical models. Far from it. What it does mean is that you need extremely complex mental maps that take time and experience to develop, and that will never develop if you spend the whole trading day simply waiting for set-ups to materialize. That just won't cut it. Right now your learning curve is stagnant because you're not truly studying the markets. Your day is wasted in waiting mode. It's not in observing and absorbing mode. Also, because you fear loss, you aren't willing to experiment. This means that you aren't making mistakes and failing regularly, which is what you need to do to learn quickly. So to conclude, based on all of the above, my advice to you would be to stop trading and make a mental shift. Realize what you need to do to become successful, and it's definitely not staying on this endlessly unfruitful path being supported by the hope of future profits. You're just running in your place unless you change your focus and your learning method. And if you thought the journey was tough so far, you haven't seen anything yet. Get ready for uncertainty and ambiguity like you've never seen it before. But this shouldn't be scary. It should be exciting, because this is what trading is all about. This is why it's called an ART. And it truly becomes one when you change your focus and your learning process. Then everything, including success, becomes possible. And until then, it'll be a distant dream that keeps appearing to be so close and yet stays so far away. So you need to re-align with a new thought system and then get on the simulator and trade. Take losses. Make mistakes. Be clueless. Don't be afraid of it. It's okay, that's the only way you'll progress. And trust me, progress you will. Best of luck to you, and I wish you much success. Ziad
ChuckJune 29, 2009 at 5:44 PM I re-read Ziad's post again today (and no doubt will re-read it many more > times) because it really makes me think about how I analyze the market > each day and how I fit my own setups inside a discretionary plan that has to take into account all the "reads" the market is giving, or at least how I interpret those reads. Ziad must be a brainy guy. I have described the market as being like a maze whereas we show up at the same front entrance every day, and we navigate the maze in the same way (i.e. the same timeframes and indicators every day), and we exit at the same place each day, but every day the walls of the maze are switched around so that the paths are different each day. That's how I see Ziad's premise (a correct premise I believe). We enter the maze each day with the same ability to turn right or left, but unless we see the bigger picture and learn to understand and "get a grip on it" on the bigger view mentally,the turns will lead us to dead ends. Maybe that's confusing but executing our setups without being able to interpret the bigger picture "good enough" will lead to frustration and a lot of "what the hell is going wrong?" frustration.
I'm glad you liked the post Chuck. I felt I had to write it because I know how bad I wanted to succeed at trading when I first started out and how I searched for every inkling of advice I could get. So when I have the chance to offer timely advice I always have to take that opportunity. And since we're on the subject, I'll share a couple more things with you. Every day I psych myself up before the trading day and during it so that I can have that killer mentality needed to have peak performance in trading. One thing I read every day is something that I wrote to remind myself what trading is all about and where my focus should be. I wrote it because whenever I faced adversity and had ups and downs it always demotivated me and knocked the wind out of my sails temporarily. But I realized that to perform at a world class level I couldn't let that happen. So I wrote the following, and I read it every day at least once or twice: "It’s not meant to be easy to do all of this; in fact it’s meant to be very hard. If it were easy anyone could do it. Almost everyone knows what it takes; few can actually do it consistently. That's the challenge. When adversity strikes even when you're doing the right things, it’s not unfortunate because greatness is not just about doing the right things, but about doing them even when they cause pain and discomfort- weathering the tough times is the inherent prerequisite for being great. Adversity is built into the game and therefore it’s not an unfortunate set-back that is keeping you from your potential; rather your potential is cut very short without being able to deal well with adversity. So expect great results long-term, but adversity and ups and downs short-term. It’s got to always be about doing the long-term beneficial, not the short-term pleasurable. And we don’t deviate from that, no matter the pressure. And we relish the opportunity to be mentally tough when adversity strikes when so many would wilt and when it feels so unnatural to be optimistic and confident. That is the real goal and priority. Now keep conditioning- constantly reprocess and replace any thoughts that aren’t in line with all of this. It will take a great commitment to unlearn old thinking patterns and instill a new way of thinking to the point of habit. And you can do it." Reading this reminds me that I'm not a victim of circumstances. That adversity isn't some external factor sabotaging my results. It's part of the game. In fact, it's what the game is all about! You have to learn to relish the opportunity to remain poised when losses hit or when you make mistakes. Take pride in it and make it your main focus. Love trading's inherent difficulties because the ability to handle them is what will truly set you apart. And always remember: this is a game of hits, losses, and misses. Those that can take them best ARE the best. I wish you all the best in your trading. Ziad Credits:http://www.eminiplayer.com/2009/06/learning-to-become-successful-trader.html
Meditation Success: Nibbles Emerges as a Spirit Guide @ 1:11 a.m (1/12/2017)
I know as a I write this I am in the correct place; when I started this sentence It was precisely 1:11 a.m on Thursday 1/12/2017. Or ‘11’ ‘11’ 2+2 = ‘4’ and ‘17 11 11 4 17 Ok universe I get it; ‘mind the repeating patterns we harass you with ten times per day, stay in school and say no to drugs!’ Very big changes are continuing to unfold in my life; specifically when I take the time to do a deep guided meditation once per week. Pandora’s box has pretty much been opened since the ‘I am energy’ break-through meditation at my 'now spiritual leader’s' Jigar Shah’s house under the scornful eye of a giant portrait of Shiva while Jigar placed an orgone energy pyramid in my hand. Every other ‘hour deep meditation’ I do now results in pretty much ‘miracle experiences’ for me. I just never get to write and organize them! The recent one happened less then an hour ago. Before I decided ‘holy shit the only thing I can actually accomplish is a deep meditation’. Nothing else sounded ‘fun’. It was completely a bad day for me. I was in a state of depression and confusion as my ‘pain body’ had sent out a crippling flair through the entirety of my physical being. I was stunned… I sulked around my house despite being rested as if I had just escaped a Minotaur attack on my way to the grocery store earlier. But I had not been physically attacked by a mythical creature; it was purely mental. Purely spiritual; purely emotional. This has always been my worse enemy. But tonight was different.. I had never had the ability to seek meditation and 'miraculously heal myself'. I guess it makes sense... I had to heal myself before attempting to heal anyone else in a life-changing meaningful way as a friend, lover, teacher, or mentor in anything. I ‘accidentally’ used an hour deep guided meditation to turn the pain body against itself. It actually jolted me into the ‘only thing’ I could do at the time: ‘an unknown hour meditation’ I choose one off youtube from Joe Treacy : ‘Guided Meditation- Clearing Negativity with your Spirit Guide’ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ruRChvQUVMw It was 40 minutes, but it took me 20 minutes of preparation with a sage cleanse and some other nonsense to get myself in the perfect state for exploration. I looked at about 30 other titles before I selected this meditation (I needed completely new, but decided to scroll titles until something 'called to me' or 'felt right'). I’m not sure why I picked it; something about it just ‘sounded fun’ at a time where nothing else in the physical universe FELT or SOUNDED FUN. I found myself unable to even consider going to a local bar 10 minutes away and trying kiss a local girl (well at a minimum). NO NO NO… .a GUIDED MEDITATION WITH A WHITE TIGER ON IT SOUNDED BETTER? Yes; this is what life has become at this point! At the time the selection sounded reasonable; looking back I’m not quite sure… I mean it’s a 10 minute drive man? I wasn’t really expecting anything, but after about 30 minutes IN A DEEP meditative state things exploded into discovery and I felt purely blessed to experience any of it. In the ultimate twist of fate NIBBLES revealed herself as my spirit guide; the first one I’ve met. The ‘good omen cat’ that I have been writing about like a lunatic for the past few months in this sub-channel suddenly appeared in the meditation. I intuitively created a happy place (as Joe instructed); which was myself chilling outside of my new house I was so grateful for in the sunshine. The wild turkey was stupidly pecking at seeds in at the edge of my woods and lawn. I was sitting on the chair on my small, but fantastic patio with my hookah. Nibbles (the wild cat I feed daily) was in some sort of cat-basket on the table. I guess we had become slightly better friends! But not all was well… Scribbles the evil omen cat lurked near by. Rather then ‘becoming scared’ in the meditation (as Scribbles is an evil spirit guide or force who should have far more power in this realm... the cat was now preparing to inflict chaos upon myself the human) I intuitively rose to the challenge and strategically lured ‘Scribbles’ closer as a game to 'fuck with him' and 'play dumb' (as if I didn't know his plans and treated it like a dream). I even said ‘SCRIBBLES!’ ‘Such a good cat; you must be hungry right!’ (he knows damn well he has stolen Nibbles food and he is almost positive I want Nibbles around and not him). This was clearly displayed a week ago when both cats were present and I apparently empathically casted Scribbles as I raised my arm with a fierce point into the wilderness. Scribbles responded a split second later as he turned into a full sprint towards the hills; as Nibbles casually froze before walking up to the closed glass door which I stood behind. The situation in the meditative state remained crystal clear as Scribbles of course tried to come in to fuck with the happy place; as always. As he attempted to cross the invisible border 'between my lawn and the forest' the turkey Immediately CAME DIRECTLY AT SCRIBBLES; and chased him away. Nibbles and I started laughing. It was perhaps then I 100% knew Nibbles was far more then just a cat. I then intuitively pieced together in a flash that perhaps Nibbles was here for a reason; he selected to be incarnated as a cat on this planet by free-will to learn when he was previously a conscious being else-where. He purposely selected to NOT HAVE A CONSCIOUS HUMAN MIND HERE, but he did select purpose of helping other third-density or 'human' light workers; and he wanted to hopefully become one… He also took joy in the opportunity to actually ‘act as a spirit guide’ for certain humans that seeked her guidance. This was tied to her purpose- offering assistance to lost people like me could eventually help her incarnate as a human in this world during a future life; to even have the ability of conscious thinking mind... So uh … here we were. 'Look at the coward flee!!' In an instant Nibbles realized fully I had of course ‘knew way to much’. Apparently in the spiritual realm Nibbles if far more then 'just a cat': in an instant her physical form changed into something on two legs with MASSIVE BRIGHT blue eyes standing well over five feet tall. The best way I could describe the newly formed entity was almost some sort of ‘Protoss being’ (from Star-caft the video game… shut up don’t be hating!) Perhaps a Zealot without swords drawn; only female and dressed more fashionably!... She looked like a higher energy of slight good and order; but war-like in another dimension by nature and not to be fucked with. She was not of bad nature; just unbelievable intimidating and more powerful then I could comprehend. I was not frightened in the least (Nibbles suddenly turning into an unidentified female being that could probably take over half the world in a day would be perhaps the 11th worst thing that happened in my life during the past 3 months); but I was prepared for anything (do your worst right?). I still knew at my core the being and I were 'companions' and had each-others best interests in mind... well for the most part... Eventually paths were laid about before me from our little ‘sanctuary’. It was just us now as we sort of agreed maybe it was best for Nibbles to stay in the form of a cat… so she had turned back into a cat sitting close in front of me, but was STARRING ME DOWN locked with MASSIVE blue eyes 5 times the normal size of a blue-eyed human. "Nibbles… alright… there is no way I’m picking the path with you staring at me like that or I faked: ‘please nibbles be my friend… I need you as a cat brah!’… All I knew was I couldn't trust Nibbles in this state; her ego was somehow involved or my ego was threatened. I preferred thinking about things for a moment without being stared down by a 'cracked out' Nibbles. There is still trust to be developed with Nibbles and it was mutually understood... it worked… Nibbles turned the other way as a cat sleeping ‘or pretending to be sleeping’ as I could no longer see her face; just the ball of the same sleeping (previously abandoned) Persian wild-cat I feed who sneaks up and meows for no reason. Well other then to tell me about her day and perhaps a little snack of deli-cat! The first path 'choice' mentioned by Joe was one of ‘Spirituality’. Well I mean obviously; I mean I did kind of choose that to even be in this ridiculous situation. Stubbornly enough I still did not consider that the ‘proven path’ yet (my ego fully returned!) because the entire point of constructing this ‘present moment’ was to create a relaxing ‘happy place’ where the spirit guide and I could discuss things such as the terror-bird wild turkey that just randomly showed up and chased out scribbles the obviously evil omen cat/influence. It was amusing that ‘Scribbles’ didn’t even realize I already fully knew he is an evil omen of sorts well before the meditation started; and Nibbles is in fact good. I had already took a side... I 100% figured that out many moons ago. Scribbles must think I have the spiritual awareness of a pineapple. And well he is probably right; but still luckily underestimates me to no end. Either way the path choices sprawled out in a fury before me. I intuitively knew I would trust Nibbles far more then sprinting alone into one of the random paths... so I decided to put more trust in the guide as I had trusted her as 'good-hearted' from the first moment I met her in real life (the first night I moved into my new place completely alone looking to rebuild my life; as she stood eerily close to the back window-slider starring. I knew she was just curios in a friendly way; and would be fortunate to ever see her again.) She wouldn't appear again until two months later a day after I randomly decided to 'buy deli cat' as I was at a grocery store 'just in case that cool persian cat ever returned'. The next day I placed the food out in a bowl and the same cat showed up to eat it in less then an hour. Shortly after I was feeding the cat daily. However, she would normally only eat 'a quarter of the bowl' and 'take a nibble'. So the legend of Nibbles was born. Shortly after, I knew if the bowl was full gone; it was the work of Scribbles 'the other cat' who devoured all in sight. I had not named scribbles, I have to give my friend 'Donald The Deal Man' credit for that one. During the deep meditative state I had confidence that Nibbles had my best interest in mind so I tried to pet Nibbles and she immediately ran off into one of the paths as I strategically expected and was the best case scenario result (in real life I have never been able to pet her, but she will sneak up a foot from me and meow meow meow). The Persian breeds are social; but this one is abandoned and still correctly frightened of any humans. She doesn’t want to be fully domesticated ever again… she wants to be part wild; and who would blame her? Still in the deep meditative state I sprinted off into the path that Nibbles had selected … The path was to represent the one thing I would do new to add ‘life’ and ‘drive’ into my present moment (as Joe Treacy suggested) in life; which I was desperately lacking in a state of loss and confusion with an activated pain body a mere 2 hours before. AS previously brought up in the same meditation I should ease into Forex trading under the recommendation of my friend I always considered 'unoffical spiritual leader' ‘Jigar Shah' aka 'Killer Instinct'. I considered this before the meditation, but it seemed over-whelming and my plan made no sense. An hour a day actually made sense. I learned I should go WITH THE FLOW and commit one hour per day of FOREX study as a daily effective habit; not binge it like poker until you burn out and kill every piece of fun out of it. I should not be afraid to take the chance; but ease into it as a daily effective habit and rationally re-evaluate after a month. I am already an IML member and Jigar is also my up-line. The main reason I joined the company was to ‘be more social’ as I was losing touch with good friends fast… I had become isolated to the point of almost completely losing touch with my main private poker group; a second family to me. My local friends were for the most part gone as a result of my demand for isolation and privacy after a near-death experience. In addition to improving social areas; I trust the resources available in the company to make side income in addition to poker as well. And who the fuck can out-work the Boo-Train? NOBODY! Anyways sorry.... meditation right: The past me would have gone out and attempted to get into all sorts of trouble at a local club night to give into all sorts of distractions to avoid the emotional pain. The new me was not trying to get laid since the last parasitic nightmare of a relationship (rather hiding from that fate); I needed to rebuild in isolation. It was a choice to be isolated; to take the pain and emerge stronger... It hurt like hell, but it was necessary for growth.… this is the time I would grow up. This time I would suffer fully with the mistake of my most recent ‘sexual partner choice’. It was time to grow up and actually 'get the lesson'. There was no going back for the reason of ‘horny as hell’ enough is enough. This was why you ran into her public on a one in a million impossible 'chance' not even a week ago (first time out in months for a friends bday); a clearly ‘meant to happen’ experience; but not meant to hook up again. Enough is enough; there is a time to be sexually reckless and a time to not be; but there is never a time to go back to the past. All we ever have is the now; the present now. Be here; be now… How can one not enjoy the now? So some-how that one little ‘push’ changed everything. I stopped my overwhelmed anxiety infested human thinking mind just long enough for Nibbles to scratch a shred of direction into me; it stopped the pain body in it's tracks. Clearly you can EASE INTO SOMETHING responsibly as a daily effective habit. Life is not meant to be ‘added stress’. New situations and challenges are meant to be ‘added experiences to enjoy’ not 'forced hours to produce X amount of dollars for unspecified reasons' Go with the flow... And clearly poker is not to be neglected; just win the Borgata main event at the end of the month for +$700,000 and make sure you're logging the volume to at least log $1500 profit no matter what playing 100NL. Set the goal LOW NOT HIGH; live low-key life for a moment; just like the first two years you started out full time. This creates discipline and an enjoyable experience to learn; rather then stressing the fuck out for no reason like your ego insists that you do by default: which you have been doing in a misery almost as bad as 'your corporate job out of college' for countless years. You have become your own corporate; that's the truth you could never see. That was never the life you set out for as you fought hard for increased freedom. You have been going against the 'grain of life' for far too long now; it is uncalled for. It is far from healthy physically or emotionally. Sure you had to play 'catch up a little' to escape the doomed path but enough is enough. Let life work for you for once. Life is not meant to be 'corporate' and 'rigid' it is meant to be 'natural cycles of effort; some insane; some low volume' and 'flow' Something I've been struggling with that didn't come up in the meditation was a 'writers block' in relation to the actual writing project I'm supposed to do for my publisher; who is also my friend and pretty much one of the only people who has actually believed in me about anything. So after the meditation I SPRINTED UPSTAIRS to write this... at least I can write something. I'm confident when I'm ready to actually focus and go after the final small creative entry to complete the project it will be that much better; and it will not be against the flow. May Nibbles triumph as Scribbles eternally 'stalks' in the shadows.
Evaluate yourself, honestly. What kind of attributes will you need reflected in your trading plan? Indecisiveness is not working in your favour when your money is on the line.
While you're trading, your plan should be set solidly - making changes on the fly is a losing proposition. The plan should be re-evaluated when you're out of the market, but not while you're in it! Stick to the plan.
No emotions. Stick to the plan.
Paper trade and backtest your plan before putting your money on the line!
Diversify your portfolio. If you're putting a lot of money on the line, have it spread out over multiple securities in multiple sectors to pad yourself against damaging market movements.
6. A Trading Plan
So you've been following TAWR for the last month - what does your trading plan look like? If you haven't started one yet, that's okay - that's what we start to cover in this week's post. First, you need to do a little soul searching.
Is this the right market for you to trade in?
Unlike other markets, the Bitcoin market does not close, not even on weekends. (International exchanges are for the most part open 6 days out of 7. BTC is around the clock.) This means there is constantly something happening, something to be watching for. Obviously you needn't be watching charts all the time and losing sleep and cuddle time because of a possible overseas news bit making waves - but this does open the market up for a lot of activity and this can be a serious stressor. If this will be too much for you, don't worry! This isn't the only market you can trade in. If this is a serious concern for you, consider other markets on the Forex. There are plenty of currency pairs to trade in that aren't nearly as crazy as those involving XBTs. ...If you're still here and not looking up USD/CHF market behaviour, that must mean you like rollercoasters.
Type of Trader: Being Honest With Yourself
Are you a swing trader? Long-term buy-and-holder looking to make a little extra in the short-term? Just curious what it's like to do what a daytrader does? Answering the question of "what type of trader are you" is important when setting up a trading plan, because certain indicators are better suited to different styles of trading. Your trading style will not necessarily reflect mine. Yours will likely differ a lot from mine and everyone else' - but as long as you can make decisions based off of that plan, and they make you money when followed, it is a good trading plan. Ultimately, the goal of answering that question isn't to give yourself a label, it's to find a set of technical rules that you can follow that 1) make you money, and 2) that you can actually act on. Trader indecisiveness is a serious problem when on the (digital) trading floor. If you have a killer plan that seems like it'll work well for you based on the backtesting, but you find that you can't actually decide when to enter and exit a position because it's reacting very sensitive to market movements, that's trader indecisiveness. Suppose it's not reactive enough and you miss entry points every time they pass? That's also trader indecision. If you can take action based on the indicators, and make money as a result, that's a good plan. If not, go ahead and make revisions to the plan. Identify what's causing your money to disappear into fees and other traders' pockets, and make changes to keep that from happening! I mentioned backtesting. That's important because whenever you come up with (or change) a trading plan, you need to...
PAPER TRADE FIRST.
If you aren't making money on paper, why would you make money in the market? To paper trade, take down your actions based on your prospective trading plan, using actual market data. Follow the market and see if your trades would have made money if you had actually executed them on the market. If you're making satisfying gains consistently on those trades based on the rules of your plan, you can have confidence in your trading plan. If you're losing money or just barely breaking even, consider revisions to your trading plan. You can use historical data to check your plan's profitability, since it's readily available. Bitcoincharts.com and Tradingview.com both let you see historical data from the Bitcoin market, for example. Obviously this will not be terribly useful to you until you've built your plan, but if you've already started to play with some indicators just to get a feel of how they look and react with the data, you'll find those two links somewhat helpful in getting a jump on next week's post.
Stick to the Facts.
Maybe your gut has never done you wrong, but always follow the chart. Befriend the trend. Trust the chart. Facts don't lie. Evidence doesn't lie. Make money by going with the market, not against it, no matter what your emotions or feelings are telling you. This is something I've been guilty of, because the fact is I love Bitcoin. I really do. I love its functionality, its widespread growth, and the fact that it's techy at its decentralized heart. (That's a paradox, by the way.) But when a trader gets too involved with their chosen security, they believe in it for the wrong reasons. As much as I love Bitcoin, I have to sell it if the price goes into a mad nosedive. If you believe in the long-term success of Bitcoin, cool - know why you believe in it. Otherwise, just trade it and don't get too attached to it. One of the key differences between Bitcoin and traditional stocks are that stocks are not food or clothes - you can't eat or wear stocks, so selling them is how you make money (locking in profits vs making gains "on paper"). However, Bitcoin actually does have use. It can be spent like any other currency (except faster!) and therefore having a lot of this security actually does give you a function you might not otherwise have. All the same, decide just how close you want to be to Bitcoin. If you believe it'll always and forever have a value, and will increase in value over time no matter what, then go ahead and collect as many as you can afford. If you have your cautious doubts, be aware of the previous point about getting too close to the security, and trade it like any other stock. It's all about making money, whether you measure your monetary gains in USD or XBTs. This next segment is right out of Barbara Rockefeller's "Technical Analysis for Dummies, 2nd ed." book, and is always true whether you're into cryptocurrencies or traditional stocks.
"Diversification reduces risk. The proof of the concept in financial math won its proponents the Nobel prize, but the old adage has been around for centuries: “Don’t put all your eggs in one basket.” In technical trading, diversification applies in two places:
Your choice of indicators: You improve the probability of a buy/sell signal being correct when you use a second, noncorrelated indicator to confirm it. You don’t get confirmation of a buy/sell signal when you consult a second indicator that works on the same principle as the first indicator. Momentum...doesn’t confirm relative strength because it adds no new information. Widen your horizon beyond a few indicators, and seek different concept indicators instead of torturing old indicators to come up with better parameters.
Your choice of securities: You reduce risk when you trade two securities whose prices move independently from one another. If you trade a technology stock, you achieve no diversification at all by adding another technology stock. Instead, you may get a better balance of risk by adding a stock from a different sector. If you trade metals futures, add something from agriculture or finance to get diversification. You can estimate degree of correlation scientifically with a spreadsheet or informally by eye (charting both securities in the same space)."
Deciding on Indicators
Wait til next week and we'll go over those! We'll see which ones fit with faster or slower trading plans (both are useful in Bitcoin) and you get to branch off from there and build your plan accordingly.
I'll welcome redditors to either comment or PM me their trading plans I'll do my best to look them over and offer suggestions or warnings as I see them. Again, I'm no guru or all-knowing being, and I'm not a certified trader or money manager or anything of that nature - but I'll offer the benefit of my research over the last few months regarding the indicators we've covered. Stay curious, make money, have fun and see you next week.
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