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🎓 BUT IS IT GREY MARKET?: AN ANALYSIS OF ARITZIA TB ITEMS USING THREE CASE STUDIES (welcome to my dissertation) 🎓

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT: PLEASE GET YOUR SNACKS, SANGRIA AND READING GLASSES PREPARED BEFORE ATTEMPTING TO READ THIS LONG ASS REVIEW. IT IS FOR YOUR OWN HEALTH AND SAFETY.
 
So homegirl has an Aritzia addiction. Like it's bad. But recently, Aritzia's prices have been sliiiiightly out of my price range. Like can I spend $168 on a dress or $148 on a turtleneck? Technically no but I did it occasionally for those "investment pieces" (lol k).
Then Aritzia had that 20% off. Sale psychology man... Wallet goes in for gastric bypass and comes out several hundred dollars lighter. Recovery tbd. I spent all my hard earned $ that I slaved away at work for (scene cuts to me watching TikToks and writing Christmas cards at my desk and I look at the camera a la Stanley from the Office). Aritzia lust is ignited and I decide I need to buy a new wardrobe that's all Aritzia and my wallet cries and I cry and my credit card bill cries. Then I went into a grey market Taobao black hole. What is grey market? What is a dupe? Which stores are potentially selling grey market? I was/am on the case. Thesis to follow.
My plan of attack was this: buy pieces that I already own to compare. My assumption was that if a shop was selling one grey market item then probably most of their stuff would be grey market.. And if a shop was selling dupes then probably most of their stuff would be dupes. THEREFORE if I could confirm if a shop was selling grey market then other pieces from that shop were likely safe bets.
Some indications of grey market that I was looking for from the TB store:
 
This stuff was all hauled together using a private agent who asked that her information not be shared publicly. The package was shipped out via EMS on April 23 and received it May 29. It cost a whopping 622 yuan ($120 CAD/$87 USD), paid via a TB link, because it also had this rattan stool thingy which I found people selling on Etsy for $180 CAD/$130 USD + $60 shipping. Rattan is just ridic expensive everywhere here so I figured shipping it with other junk would still be cheaper. Also too many hoodies recommended by the nephews over at fashionreps. I'd give this agent a 10/10 for communication because she's kind, sticker game on point and I think her shipping prices are fair. She also messages me when she sees on 17Track that my parcel is out for delivery! Taobao communication with all shops was easy- the various shops sent the products quickly and without issue.
 
COMMERICAL BREAK/INTERMISSION/ALCOHOL REPLENISHMENT TIME.
Insert ad for honey, nordvpn, expressvpn, audible, care of, function of beauty, better help. You get my drift.
YOU GOOD BRO? OKAY LET'S KEEP GOING.
 

THE STORES I INVESTIGATED

  • Sweet Small Square: many of the product photos have the actual product shown with a branded tag. But, many of the products have all sizes and colours available which is a red flag to me. I was considering buying the New Plunge Front cardigan from this shop and I can't remember why I went with the other one. I think some of the real life product photos were the same and the other one was cheaper.
  • North American Fashion: I think this is very solidly grey market (everything is screaming it at the top of their lungs). This is where the cape is from.
  • Z freed: this was a weird one. Had some really weird things but also random Aritzia pieces like this shirt which clearly shows Babaton tags or this TNA tank. Also had random Lululemon which I'm so confused on because I've never seen true Lululemon grey market but also ?????????????. This is where the cheetah tank is from.
  • Mimiko: this hits all the grey market check boxes. Odd sizes, tag photos. However, the reviews on the Wilfred cocoon coat threw me off because the one photo in the product reviews looked OFF. LIKE OOOOOOOOOOFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFF. And, the photo has now disappeared from the comments? But could be an anomaly. Just read the reviews ppl.
  • MixMei: this is a juicy one. Almost bought this turtleneck buuuuut a girl can only have so many turtlenecks. I'd put money on this being grey market.
  • Authentic European and American foreign trade clothing: no photos of the actual product that I saw... also lots of sizes and colours. I'd guess dupes, but they have good reviews.
  • PiStudio: a strange one- I bought this bodysuit in a previous haul and if it's not grey market then IDK what is. BUT I also bought a tank top from there which is no longer up (the Arjun one if u know) and the material was slightly different than the auth and it had no tags. A fluke?
  • Small eggshell: some products show tags, some don't. Some products have lots of colours/sizes, some don't. Like this is supposed to be the Montpellier sweater but I KNOW it wasn't made it all those colours. My best guess is dupes. This is where I bought the New Plunge Front cardigan from- I was pretty sure it was a dupe but wanted to see how it compared material, size and shape-wise because I have the auth and I love the style.
 
INTERMISSION
elevator music while u refresh ur beverage
BACK TO BUSINESS
 

COMMUNITY IONIC CAPE

Edna Mode: NO CAPES!!!!!!!!
  • Size xs/s in both the rep and auth
  • 128 yuan ($24.70 CAD/$17.93 USD), retails for $75 CAD/$75 USD (muahaha benefits of a canadian company- the prices in CAD are actually better than in USD)
 
Auth | W2C | No PSPs | My pics with auth comparisons | Mod shots patron on the rocks and we're ready for some shots
  • Accuracy - 9.5/10 - Material is SPOT on, shape and fit are SPOT on. I will deduct a half point because the tag is strange and one I've never seen on Aritzia clothing in my entire purchasing career (long and illustrious). My auth doesn't actually have a tag anymore lol. But if you look at the inner care tag, the fonts for "Community" are different. I do think it went through a logo rebrand at one point but I did purchase this cape probably like in 2012. That being said, I think this is grey market and IDK what happened with the tag. OR, it's a good enough dupe for me to think it's grey market. If you have seen this tag before, lEt Me kNoW iN tHe CoMMeNts bELoW as the youtubers say to try to boost their engagement.
  • Quality - 10/10 - Like I said above, the quality of this is exactly the same as my auth version. Material is nice n knubby and no pulls!
  • Satisfaction - 10/10 - This is a great add to my closet because piece is fabulous for an office in the summer. It's cardigan-esque so you can cover up a little bit but also not be a sweltering sweaty mess. And sometimes I find regular cardigans grandma-ish so yeah. I wanted another last year when I realized it was discontinued so this was an excellent purchase. Good thing I am now never ever going into my office again!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Shop communication/service - 10/10 - Shipped quickly and without issue. Flawless execution dear!
  • But is it grey market? METHINKS SO. Honestly, this has to be grey market or else its that thicc 1:1. I will note that this item is now discontinued… (WOW THIS IS ME EDITING THIS POST- IT'S NOT ACTUALLY DISCONTINUED! THEY BROUGHT IT BACK!) So how there would be grey market available, I'm unsure.
 

WILFRED NEW PLUNGE FRONT CARDIGAN

Formerly the Thais cardigan. Why did Aritzia change so many of their names? New tie front pant (formerly Jallade pant), new tie front shirt (formerly just tie front shirt lol)
  • Size m in both the rep and the auth
  • 218 yuan ($42 CAD/$31 USD), retails for $138 CAD/$138 USD
 
Auth | W2C | No PSPs | My pics with auth comparisons | Mod shotty had them apple bottom jeans JEANS boots with the fur WITH THE FUR
  • Accuracy - 8/10 - So the shape is just sliiightly off from the auth. The sleeves are way more bell shaped (which may be appealing to some). Tags are identical though I could be seeing slight font and spacing differences but also my eyes could be tricking me. I also swear you can see the differences in the material in the pictures. The auth is more of a silky smooth situation and the rep is more of a scratchy cotton-esque situation. Do you ever just shock yourself with your own eloquence?
  • Quality - 6/10 - Am I allowed to swear here? FUCK this shit is scratchy. I am a very sensitive person to fabrics (okay and just sensitive overall shut up) and this is so scratchy I'm unsure if I'll be able to wear it. Now if you were a normal person not sensitive to fabrics you'll probably be fine.
  • Satisfaction - 5/10 - Bleh highkey disappointed. I love the auth of this because the material feels soft and I like the shape… Both categories on which this item kinda failed! I will attempt to wear this but also maybe be itchy and uncomfortable the entire time. The sacrifices we make for fashion amirite ladies?
  • Shop communication/service - 10/10 - Shipped quickly and replied quickly when I asked about the quality/whether it was grey market. The shop's answer didn't reveal much beyond "it's good quality!" but like I wasn't expecting the details of how they heisted the Aritzia merch under their trench coats in the middle of the night.
  • But is it grey market? IT'S GOING TO BE A NO FROM ME TODAY. BUT (I like big butts), it is a good enough dupe that I'd probably repurchase from this shop.
 

BABATON EVERLY TANK TOP

In cheetah cause we are spicccyyyyyyyyyyy. I really dislike the regular Everly tank, it's just so boring to me. But this material/colour got me going....................................... Wild…………………………. I'll see myself out.
  • Size m
  • 88 yuan ($17 CAD/$12 USD), retails for $68 CAD/$68 USD
 
Auth | W2C | No PSPs | My pics | Mod shots by imagine dragons boiler remix is a bop
  • Accuracy - 10/10 - Alright, I don't have the auth of this because if you actually read about 3 lines up you'd ALREADY KNOW WHY. I have tried it on in store though and the shape is exactly the same. The Everly camisole comes in a bunch of different fabrics and this seemed the same as other similar ones I've felt. Never actually saw this one on the Aritzia site or in store. This also has tags so infer for yourself what this means.
  • Quality - 10/10 - V nice. Silky. Drapes good. Idk what else to say about it. It's a camisole. I like the colour. It's a camisole. The end.
  • Satisfaction - 9/10 - So I deduct one point because the shape of the Everly is maybe just not for me. I think camisoles like this stretch weird and tight over my boobs and large man shoulders. I think the neckline sits a bit high for what I personally find flattering.
  • Shop communication/service - 10/10 - Very very quick shipping! No complaints from this whiner!
  • But is it grey market? SURVEY SAYS? YES. Tags are correct, shape is correct, material is correct as far as I can tell. This was the weird store though so take that with a grain of salt.
 
 
Most theses/dissertations probably end with a long ass conclusion with the word "therefore" used at least once. Well jokes on you this is not a professional academic work THIS IS A REDDIT POST. So my eloquent conclusion is: bye bitches, until next time.
Jk, I hope some of you found this helpful and please share any future Aritiza TB purchases!!
 
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2020...so far

So how bad has it been? When I started this, it was because I was bored. I wanted to see just how much shit has happened. Midway through, I was shocked. Then finally sad and angry.
-Enjoy!
2020
Jan 1 -Australia is on fucking fire. Like all of it. And Hong Kong is too?
Jan 2 I think Turkey just murdered an Iranian general in broad daylight. Great start so far, 2020. HK police are reported to have used excessive force. See, America is still an influence on the world!
Jan 7. I heard there is a virus named because you drink Corona beer?? Shit sign me up, I can use a few days off.
Jan. 8. Remember when Iran launched two missiles at a US Base? Also, Russia may have shot down a Ukrainian airline killing 173 but I'm not sure.
Jan 11. That virus just killed someone. Shit don’t sign me up.
Jan 16. Seriously, does anyone remember that the impeachment of President Trump was this year? I sure as shit didn't.
Jan 20. The first 'Rona case in the US. Yes, this thing has a meme.
Jan 23. Lockdown in Wuhan. Not the rap song, an actual lockdown of 11 million
Jan. 26 fuck.
Jan 31 I am sorry, did you say Brexit actually HAPPENED?
Well January, you sucked. Taking Kobe was a real dick punch, but February has to be better.
Feb 4. Iowa Caucus-shmacus, what is the hold up here?
Feb. 5 How do you fuck this up? Trump really gets to stay. Wow.
Feb 11 Due to the impact on Latin-created beer the virus is now known as Covid-19
Feb 24 Is this really the highlight of the year? Harvey goes to jail for being a rapist.
Feb 27 Dow drops over 1100 in one day. Speculators rejoice! Meanwhile in Syria, Russia shows how much fucks it gives again and strikes 33 Turkish soldiers dead.
God damn it, what the hell 2020?
Mar 5 ICC allows for the Afghan War Crimes inquiry allowing US citizens to be investigated. Bet you didn’t know that one, huh?
March 9 Dow drops 2013 in one day making Feb 27 look like baby cakes.
March 10 Hey, remember when they locked down an entire city? Italy said, "I think that we can top it."
March 11 The WHO declares the coronavirus a pandemic. What. The. Fuck.
Mar 12 Dow drops 2352 in one day making 1929 look like baby cakes. Also, MLB postpones their season and I can decide which is more important here.
Mar 13 RIP Breonna Taylor. President Chump, err... Trump declares national emergency finally.
Mar 14 Spain lock-down
Mar 15 Ides of March, aye?
Mar 16 Dow drops 2352 in one day making... wait, is this the new norm?
Mar 17 Iran announces millions may be infected. 90% of cases so far in the Middle East are here. Sorry Iran, shitty year for everyone, we will get through it.
Mar 20 20k dead from Covid-19 so far. Oh man this is going to be bad. CA becomes first US state to lock-down. Ahh, no place like home.
Mar 24 India goes into full lock-down. India. Yeah, the billion-plus India. Plus, no Olympics this year. Bummer.
Mar 27 North Macedonia becomes the 30th country to join NATO. God damn it I am reaching for something good but I got nothing. NOTHING!
Mar 30 A passenger train derails near Chenzhou, China, killing one person and leaving 127 people injured. Oil drops below $23, lowest since 2002 - ladies and gentlemen, start your engines.
Eyes closed:
April will be better. April will be better. April will be better. April will be better. April will be better.
Open eyes:
FUCK!!
Apr. 1 What the hell is Tiger King?
Apr 2 Covid-19 coming in hot, number of cases passes 1M worldwide
Apr. 4 Turkey hides Ministry of Interior after riots erupt in a large prison due to fears of Covid-19.
Apr 5 QE II addresses the UK for the 5th time in 68 years. Also, do people really think 5G will give you Covid-19?
Apr 6 Russian Imperial Movement is labeled a terrorist group. They are, but it also happened today.
Apr 7 Japan passes $990B in relief of Covid-19. or 20% of their GDP.
Apr 8 Say it ain’t so, Joe? Biden becomes presumptive dem nominee as Bernie drops out.
Apr 9 NY state declares more Covid-19 cases than any country in the world. Yep, you read that right.
Apr 10 Russia shows how much fucks it gives yet again by saying they do not have plans to discuss oil market turmoil. Death toll for Covid-19 hits 100k worldwide. And the first case of Ebola since Feb...wait, what the fuck? One virus at a goddamn time, 2020!
Apr 12 Pope Francis live streams the Urbi et Orbi blessing for the second time in just a month. This is only supposed to happen at Christmas or Easter. Jesus. Christ. Literally.
Apr 14 US President Trump announces the US is suspending funding of the World Health Organization (WHO). Yeah you read that right. Suspend during a fucking pandemic. Your President ladies and gentlemen. IMF also says we are going into something akin to the Great Depression.
Apr 15 Tax Day delayed, so there is that. Covid-19 passes 2M cases worldwide. Tour de France also delayed. I guess steroids don’t work on the virus.
Apr 17 UN announces Myanmar has been carrying out daily airstrikes that at least 32 civilians (mostly women and children) have been killed since March 23
Apr 19 Israel hits the streets in protest to Bibi and his corrupt government. 17 dead in a killing spree in Nova Scotia. Unrest starts to break out in Paris, Berlin and other cities opposing the lockdown
Apr. 20 So let me get this straight, oil is so cheap you will pay me to take it? I see you, 2020, I see you. Also, The Industrial Bank of Korea to pay US$86M and will enter a 2yr deferred prosecution agreement to settle with US DoJ and the state of NY for a 2011 scheme to help transfer US$1B to Iran. Bibi finds a way somehow again to stay. Tom Thabane resigns from Lesotho as PM, showing that killing your ex-wife is wrong there too.
Apr 21 Mozambique police say 52 male villagers were killed by Islamist militants for not joinging.
Apr 22 Iran's Islamic RG Corps deploys the country's first military satellite.
Apr 25 separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC) announces the establishment of a self-rule administration in southern Yemen. This is bad, like, really bad. Also, the global death toll from COVID-19 exceeds 200,000.
Apr 27 The Pentagon formally releases three videos of "unidentified aerial phenomena" encountered by the United States Navy. Cases of COVID-19 passes 3 million worldwide
Apr 28 Protests erupt in major cities across Lebanon for the second day over the country's continuing economic problems.
Apr. 29 Who didn’t see this one coming? An asteroid zooms past Earth with an approach of 0.042 AU (6.3 million km; 16 LD). That’s pretty effing close, man.
Apr 30 The government of Sudan criminalizes female genital mutilation. OH MY GOD SOMETHING POSITIVE!!!!!!
I don’t want to do this anymore.
May 3-4 Silvercorp USA and Operation Gideon. Blackwater eat your heart out. Silvercorp, you too. Please. Literally. I think we lost the driver of this bus somewhere in 2019.
May 5 The UK death toll from COVID-19 became the highest in Europe at 32,313 after exceeding the death toll of 29,029 in Italy.
May 6 New evidence indicates that an Algerian-born French fishmonger, who had not traveled to China and did not have contact with any Chinese nationals, was treated for pneumonia from an unknown source, now identified as COVID-19, on December 27, 2019.
May 7 11 people die and over 5,000 fall ill from a styrene gas leak in India
May 9 Chinese and Indian soldiers are injured in a cross-border clash at Nathu La
May 10 The Iranian Navy frigate Jamaran accidentally strikes the Iranian support vessel Konarak with a missile, killing nineteen sailors in friendly fire. The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 passes 4 million worldwide. Wuhan, the original epicenter of the pandemic, reports its first coronavirus cases in more than a month
May 12 Gunmen storm a maternity hospital and kill 24 people in Kabul. In Kuz Kunar a suicide bomber kills 32 at a funeral.
May 14 The global death toll from COVID-19 exceeds 300,000.
May 18 UN announces 700k affected in recent 2020 East Africa floods
May 25 RIP George Floyd
May 26 And the people react.
May 27 RIP Tony McDade. RIP Calvin Horton, Jr. RIP David McAtee. RIP David Patrick Underwood. RIP Myqwon Blanchard.
Also, China closes autonomous Hong Kong with legislation. U.S. death toll passes for Covid-19 100,000 - more Americans than were killed in the Vietnam War and Korean War combined and approaching WW1 levels.
May 28 The Denver Post photographer is struck with pepper bullets. Not an accident.
May 29 Omar Jiménez arrested while giving a live CNN television report in Minneapolis. Linda Tirado, a freelance photojournalist, was hit in the eye with a rubber bullet or a pellet by the police in the same city. In Louisville, Kentucky, an officer fired pepper bullets at a reporter from NBC affiliate WAVE who was reporting live on air for her station.
May 30 RIP Barry Perkins. RIP James Scurlock. RIP Sarah Grossman. RIP Chris Beaty. RIP Marvin Francois. RIP John Tiggs. NYPD vehicles were recorded ramming into protesters. a Reuters crew were fired on with rubber bullets in Minneapolis. Deutsche Welle journalist Stefan Simons and his team were shot at by police in Minneapolis. Lesson of the day: DO NOT EVER GO TO MINNEAPOLIS.
May 31 RIP Dorian Murell. Police pull Taniyah Pilgrim and Messiah Young over, breaking the windows, yanking Taniyah out of the car and tasing Messiah. Justin Howell. Minneapolis PD thinks they are in GTA San Andreas and do drive-by chemical sprays. Adolfo Guzman-Lopez, a reporter for Los Angeles NPPRI affiliate KPCC was hit in the throat with a rubber bullet. Los Angeles Times reporter Molly Hennessy-Fiske reported reporters and camera crews being at the receiving end of tear gas by Minnesota State Patrol, while the same happened to an KABC-TV news crew in Santa Monica. Detroit Free Press journalists were pepper sprayed by the city's police, as was KSTP reporter Ryan Raiche along with other journalists. BBC cameraman, Peter Murtaugh, was purposely attacked by police on May 31 outside the White House. Murtaugh filmed a line of police officers charging without warning, whereby a shield-wielding officer tackled Murtaugh to the ground. Also, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 passes 6 million worldwide
We are killing each other.
I. Don’t. Want. To. Do. This. Anymore.
June 1 David McAtee RIP. Italia Marie Kelly RIP. In Cicero, Illinois, two men were fatally shot in separate incidents following an "afternoon of unrest" - Jose Gutierrez and Victor Cazares Jr RIP. In Las Vegas, police shot and killed Jorge Gomez RIP. Australian journalist Amelia Brace and cameraman Tim Myers assaulted by United States Park Police. President Dickhead clears a path to an old church for a photo op with a bible. That path is cleared by tear gas, rubber bullets, and flash grenades.
June 2 Blackout Tuesday. Unidentified looter in Philly shot and killed and another severely injured while attempting to break into an ATM. RIP David Dorn. RIP Sean Monterrosa. Leslie Furcron shot between the eyes with a bean bag. Grand Rapids PD goes ballistic and pepper sprays everyone. $5B class action lawsuit is filed against Alphabet Inc. and Google, alleging the company violates users' right to privacy .
June 3 RIP Robert Forbes. General Keith Ellison increases the charge against Derek Chauvin. Cyclonic Storm Nisarga hits Mumbai. 20,000 tons of oil leaked into the Ambarnaya River.
June 4 Buffalo PD shows just how tough they are when they almost kill a 75 year old man. Then say Martin Gugino attacked them, only to change the story yet again when the video comes out. I see a running theme here with these folks. Also, Prez Chump puts new fencing to expand the White House perimeter, and continues to hide in a bunker.
June 7 COVID-19 pandemic: The global death toll from COVID-19 exceeds 400,000.
June 8 In Seattle, wannabe anarchists attempt to steal BLM movement with Capitol Hill Autonomous Zone. COVID-19 pandemic: The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 passes 7 million worldwide
June 9 George is finally laid to rest, RIP.
June 11 NASCAR bans Stars and Bars 150 years after those traitorous assholes lost. I guess better late than never. But 150 fucking years! Oh yeah and some jackass named Ray Ciccarelli quits because of it. Ugh, it never ends does it?
June 12 Ok at this point 2020, can you please just give me a week where nothing happens that signals The End is near? How about a rainbow, you got any of those anymore?
-OUT
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[OC] I put the 19 Strongest Premier League Teams in History and Derby County's 2007-08 side in the same League together and simulated 10,000 seasons, these were the results.

Introduction

Have you ever wondered what would happen if you took the great sides from yester-year and put them in the same league together? UEFA have been trying to do that recently with the much reviled UEFA Super LeagueTM and since it’s looking like that won’t happen I thought I’d simulate something similar but within the comfort of my home county: the EPL. What would happen if I put the 19 most dominant teams in EPL history into one league and simulated many seasons? Who would get the most points? Who would win the most seasons? Let's find out!

The Teams

The nineteen best teams in Premier League history by points totals according to the transfermarkt website are:
For fun, I decided to complete the league with the infamous Derby County 2007-08 side that managed to accumulate just 11 points in an entire season, which is the record lowest points tally to this day. Would they be able to beat any of the monster teams listed above over a simulated season?

Methodology

(Skip to the Results section if you want to avoid reading the Mathsy stuff.)
A season in a 20-team league is composed of 380 matches, each of which is made up of a home team and an away team. The fundamental assumption I will be making is that the number of goals scored by a team follows a Poisson distribution with mean dependent on the teams’ attacking strength and the oppositions’ defensive strength. This is a reasonable assumption since the Poisson distribution is typically skewed towards lower numbers when the mean is small (and football is a low-scoring game). However it is not perfect – for example the occurrence of goals in a match is not independent from when the last goal occurred, also a goal being scored is a rare event in a football match and so you will run into sample size issues. A better compromise would be to use a shot-based metric like xG since shots are much more frequent events, though xG statistics were not available for some of the older teams in this list so that had to be abandoned. Since this is just for fun I decided not to look too far for the perfect model and stuck with what I had, which was simple to code.
The Home Field Advantage is a well-established phenomenon in football and so for each of the 20 teams I want to look at how they performed at home and away, treating each separately. Therefore for each team I need to find out four things: their home attack, home defence, away attack and away defence. To do this I need to look at the goal-scoring records for the 20 teams in their respective seasons:
Let’s consider Manchester City 2018-19 as an example.
Repeating this for all the other teams in the league home and away will give us the numbers needed to find the Poisson mean for both teams in a match. Let’s have a look at an example to see how these numbers are used to predict a match outcome:
Manchester City 2018-19 vs. Derby County 2007-08
The mean number of goals I expect Man City to score in this match is given by the formula:
MCI2018-19 home attack * DER2007-08 away defense = 3.000 * 1.583 = 4.749.
Similarly the mean number of goals I expect Derby to score in this match is given by:
DER2007-08 away attack * MCI2018-19 home defense = 0.421 * 0.533 = 0.224
So the expected scoreline in this match will be a 4.749 – 0.224 win in favour of Man City, i.e. roughly 5-0 on average. This is repeated for the remaining 379 fixtures in the season and from there a simulated table can be conjured up. Bear in mind that the goals scored in each match are all random and vulnerable to the variance of the Poisson distribution. Man City are expected to score 4.749 goals in the match against Derby but according to the Poisson distribution have a 0.86% chance of scoring zero goals! This could happen in our simulated season but it wouldn’t be representative of Man City’s strength as a whole. To counter this variance I used a Monte Carlo Method by simulating 10,000 seasons in R (I will spare you my inefficient code, though outputs are given at the bottom) to answer interesting questions such as:

Results

The Average Table (over 10,000 seasons)

Avg Pos. Team Pld. W D L GF GA GD Pts.
4.3 Manchester City 2018-19 38 18.7 9.8 9.5 60.7 35.8 +24.9 65.8
4.5 Chelsea 2004-05 38 17.9 11.7 8.4 47.0 25.6 +21.4 65.4
4.9 Manchester City 2017-18 38 18.5 9.0 10.5 67.1 43.0 +24.1 64.5
5.2 Liverpool 2018-19 38 17.9 10.0 10.1 56.7 35.2 +21.5 63.8
7.0 Manchester United 2007-08 38 16.7 10.2 11.1 51.0 36.4 +14.6 60.3
7.2 Tottenham 2016-17 38 16.7 9.8 11.5 55.0 40.5 +14.5 59.9
7.8 Manchester City 2011-12 38 16.5 9.2 12.2 58.8 44.6 +14.2 58.9
8.3 Chelsea 2009-10 38 16.3 8.7 12.9 64.2 49.9 +14.3 57.8
10.4 Chelsea 2005-06 38 14.6 10.5 12.9 45.5 38.7 +6.8 54.3
10.4 Manchester City 2013-14 38 15.4 8.0 14.5 63.4 57.6 +5.8 54.3
11.0 Manchester United 2011-12 38 14.6 9.4 14.0 56.1 50.4 +5.7 53.2
11.3 Manchester United 2006-07 38 14.4 9.6 14.0 52.5 47.9 +4.6 52.7
11.5 Arsenal 2003-04 38 14.0 10.5 13.5 46.5 42.4 +4.1 52.5
12.5 Chelsea 2016-17 38 13.8 9.4 14.9 53.2 50.9 +2.3 50.7
12.9 Manchester United 2008-09 38 13.1 10.7 14.2 42.9 42.1 +0.8 50.0
14.7 Chelsea 2014-15 38 12.4 9.5 16.1 46.5 54.9 -8.4 46.8
14.9 Arsenal 2001-02 38 12.3 9.2 16.5 49.6 57.6 -8.0 46.2
15.0 Manchester United 1999-2000 38 12.8 7.7 17.6 59.6 69.3 -9.7 46.0
16.1 Manchester United 2012-13 38 11.6 8.2 18.1 53.7 66.4 -12.7 43.2
20.0 Derby County 2007-08 38 0.4 1.5 36.1 11.4 152.3 -140.9 2.6
  • With the exception of Derby County it's quite clear that there is a lot of parity in this league with only 23 points separating 1st from 19th!
  • Man City 2017-18 and 2018-19 backed up their record point tallies by finishing highly most seasons in this league of heavyweights. Chelsea 2004-05's incredible defense let them keep up the pace with Guardiola's teams as they finished a very close 2nd in the Average Table.
  • Surprisingly Tottenham 2016-17 performed better on average than the champions of that season Chelsea in this league, due to their better goal scoring and conceding record for that year.
  • It went about as well as you could have expected for poor Derby County who finished bottom of the table in every single season (see the Crosstable below), scoring just 11.4 goals on average and conceding 152.3 over the 38-game season. On average they earned fewer than three points over a whole season!

Crosstable (Probability of finishing in xth position)

  • Despite having two points fewer than the Centurions, Man City 2018-19 won the super league more often than any other team, they were crowned champions 2,195 times.
  • Other regular winners were Chelsea 2004-05 (1,909 sims), Manchester City 2017-18 (1,781 sims) and Liverpool 2018-19 (1,420 sims) who complete the so-called "Big Four", sharing the league title 73.05% of the time between them.
  • Along with Derby County, Robin Van Persie's 2012-13 Manchester United were relegated the most often (4,602 sims), with the 1999-2000 team the third most likely to get the drop (3,111 sims).
  • With the exception of Derby County, every team won the super league in at least one season!

Fun Stats

Out of the 10,000 seasons (3.8 million games) these were some of the fun things I found:
Stat Details Simulation
Highest Scoring Game 17 Goals: Arsenal 2001-02 4-13 Tottenham 2016-17 5667
Biggest Home Win Chelsea 2009-10 17-0 Derby County 2007-08 3948
Biggest Away Win Derby County 2007-08 0-16 Manchester City 2011-12 4345
Most Points 95 - Manchester City 2018-19 9340
Most Goals Scored 101 - Manchester City 2017-18 4497
Most Goals Conceded 203 - Derby County 2007-08 1929
Highest Goal Difference +62 - Manchester City 2017-18 431
Lowest Goal Difference -194 - Derby County 2007-08 1929
Invincible Seasons 0 -
Zero-point seasons 1452 (all Derby County 2007-08) -
Best Derby County Season 16 points 9256
Total wins for Derby County 3571/380000 (0.94% winrate) -

A Season in the Life of Derby County 2007-08

Taken from the 10,000th simulation.
Derby's first fixture of the season was welcoming Jürgen Klopp's 2018-19 Liverpool to Pride Park. In the August sun the Reds ran out 0-3 winners over the Rams to leave them tied for bottom of the table after matchday one. The following week they were thumped 4-0 on their first visit to Stamford Bridge by 2005-06 Chelsea. This result would send Chelsea top of the table and also let Derby reach the dizzying heights of 19th place on Goal Difference after 2012-13 Man United were battered 6-1 by 2013-14 Man City.
Things were looking promising after an impressive 2-2 draw over the Cristiano Ronaldo inspired 2006-07 Man United nearly brought them out the relegation zone and had fans dreaming of survival. Unfortunately this would be a false hope as a 4-0 loss to 2014-15 Chelsea and a 2-5 home loss to 2008-09 Man United would follow. On their first visit to the Etihad they bowed out to 2011-12 Man City 3-1 before losing 0-5 at home against Conte's Chelsea. A 2-0 away defeat to fellow relegation candidates 2012-13 Man United saw the Rams already 9 points away from safety after just eight games, though they had scored more goals than the Arsenal Invincibles!
Current champions 2018-19 Man City were next to be welcomed at Pride Park, and Derby put up a good fight by only losing 0-2. Next week the cousins 2013-14 Man City were not so kind as they ran riot in a 7-0 thrashing. 5-0 and 1-8 losses were next dished out by 2007-08 Man United and 2009-10 Chelsea. Pochettino's 2016-17 Tottenham side also enjoyed a 5-0 win on Matchday 13. The lowest point of the season was a 0-8 home loss to 1999-00 Man United, their worst defeat of the year.The next home game was 2004-05 Chelsea, the team with the best defense in history. Derby County did themselves proud and managed to score twice but ultimately lost 2-7 in a crazy game.
The defense continued to ship goals over the Christmas period; a 5-0 loss to the Centurions, a 0-7 defeat to the Invincibles, a 4-1 loss to 2011-12 Man United and finally a 1-8 hammering to Ferguson's final United team saw Derby County firmly rooted to the bottom of the table at the halfway stage. Relegation was almost a certainty at this point, but all the other positions in the league were anything but certain!
The second half of the season was no better for the Rams, they lost every single game from here on out but did nearly keep a draw in a 1-0 away loss to 2016-17 Chelsea on Matchday 21. Finally on Matchday 28 the Arsenal Invincibles sealed their fate, defeating Derby 4-0 to ensure their relegation to the 10,001st simulation of the super league, it was still only February!
With Derby relegated, eyes turned to the title race. 2018-19 Man City had built up a healthy 9-point lead over 2007-08 Man United during the late winter months. That lead would be cut down to 6 points with 5 matches remaining as Tottenham's 2016-17 side proved to be surprise candidates off the back of five wins in a row.
Disaster would strike Man City as two draws and two losses in the next four matches saw Spurs leapfrog them into first place by a point going into the final day of the season. Not only was the title still up for grabs, there were five teams still fighting for two Champions League spots and any two of 2011-12 Man United, 2001-02 Arsenal and 2012-13 Man United would join Derby County in relegation!
Final Standings
On the final day of the season everything went 2016-17 Chelsea's way as they crushed 2011-12 Man United 4-0 to jump from 7th place into the top 4 on Goal Difference. All three of the relegation candidates losing meant the bottom of the table stayed as it was. 2018-19 Man City managed a 1-2 away victory over Man United's 2012-13 team but it was too little too late as a nervy 0-1 away win for Spurs over Mourinho's 2014-15 Chelsea side saw them clinch the title... for the 612th time!

Ballparking Derby's chances of winning the Super League

Even in Derby's best season they still finished 19 points adrift from 19th place, so it's clearly going to take a lot more than 10,000 simulations before we see them challenging for the league even once, but we can make some sort of an estimate. The mean number of points accumulated by the champions was 73.8, so you'd expect a team to win the league if they get ~25 wins or ~24 wins and a few draws. Let's say that in any season in which Derby get 25 wins they win the league just to be on the safe side.
Throughout the 10,000 simulations Derby won 0.94% of all matches, though we can presume most of these were against the weaker teams in the Super League and so their win rate against any particular team would probably be smaller, let's call it a round 0.9% for simplicity.
The probability that Derby will win 25 or more matches out of 38 with each match having a winning probability of 0.9% is 3.5 * 10-42 or 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000000035%. In other words one would expect Derby County to win the Super League around once every 2.86 * 1041 simulations.
If every person on Earth ran a million simulations per second from now until the Sun swallows the Earth in 5 billion years they would still have only cooked up 1.21 * 1033 simulations, a factor of 236 million fewer than the expected amount needed to see a win. i.e. we would need a quarter of a billion Earth's doing the task if you want to see Derby County sitting as champions before the Sun turns them all into plasma!

Conclusions

This was all a good bit of fun and a nice coding challenge for an amateur like myself. As mentioned before there are several big problems with the assumptions above though the biggest of all is probably the premise itself. It's unreasonable to assume that the average strength of the Premier League has remained constant over time, some teams may have been in a "harder" league and have reduced points tallies than if they were present in other years, meaning that the stats are out of their favour. As it is we can only use what we have, I think the end results are in line with what one might expect: the brilliant defence of Chelsea's 2004-05 side cancels out the terrifying attack of the recent Manchester City teams and both sit atop the rest as the best of the best.

Output folder

You can download the output folder for the 10,000 seasons [here], it contains the following .csv files:
  • Teams: a folder containing the 20 teams in the league, each file has the 10,000 season end results for the respective team.
  • 10000th season final table and 10000th season fixtures and results: full-season data on the subsection above.
  • AvgTable: a raw copy of the Average Table.
  • biggestawaywin, biggesthomewin, highestscoring: the biggest home/away wins and highest scoring matches for each of the 10,000 seasons.
  • champions: A list of the 10,000 champions and the runners-up.
  • crosstable: A raw copy of the crosstable.
submitted by Tsubasa_sama to soccer [link] [comments]

[Game Preview] Playoff Edition Wildcard Round - Seattle Seahawks (11-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles(9-7)

Philadelphia Eagles (9-7) vs Seattle Seahawks(11-5)
For the third season in a row the Eagles are limping into the playoffs with a multitude of injuries at key positions. But for the first time in those 3 seasons, starting QB Carson Wentz is at the helm and playing at his best. Wentz has won 4 straight must win games against division rivals and leading the Eagles offense complied mostly of backups and practice squad players to over 400 yards of total offense in each game. He will need to extend that winning streak to 5 games this week week against the Seattle Seahawks, the same Seahawks Wentz had his worst game of the season against where he turned the ball over 4 times. Wentz will need to stay hot and play much better than he did in the week 12 loss to the Seahawks. Like that game Wentz will be without his top targets at WR, and starting RG Brandon Brooks and RT Lane Johnson. Unlike last time, Wentz seems to have found a way to win without those key players. Key players have stepped up including Greg Ward and Boston Scott in those wins and they will need to again in their first playoff action of their careers. On the other side of the ball the Eagles will need to do something they have struggled with for years, stop Russel Wilson who is currently undefeated against the Eagles. Wilson has had an outstanding season and should be in conversation for MVP if not for Lamar Jackson’s amazing season. The Eagles defense will need to hold him in check if they hope to win, especially since the Seahawks will be without their top running backs. If the Eagles defense can hold, and Wentz can keep up his hotsteak, we may just see another week of postseason football in the Doug Pederson era with a hot team which can always be dangerous. Go Eagles!
General Information
Posting Rules and Guidelines
Remember to Join us on Discord during the game!
New to the Eagles? Take a look at our New Fan Page!
Date
Sunday, January 5th, 2020
Game Time Game Location
4:40 PM - Eastern Lincoln Financial Field
3:40 PM - Central 1020 Pattison Ave
2:40 PM - Mountain Philadelphia, PA 19148
1:40 PM - Pacific Wikipedia - Map
Weather Forecast
Stadium Type: Open Air
Surface: Grass
Temperature: 43°F
Feels Like: 37°F
Forecast: Clear. Clear throughout the day.
Chance of Precipitation: 0 %
Cloud Coverage: 11%
Wind: WNW 11 MPH
Betting Odds
Oddsshark Information
Favorite/Opening Line: Seattle -1.5
OveUnder: 45.5
Record VS. Spread: Eagles 7-9, Seahawks7-8-1
Where to Watch on TV
NBC will broadcast Sunday’s game to a national audience. Al Michaels will handle play-by-play duties and Chris Collinsworth will provide analysis. Michele Tafoya will report from the sidelines.
Play off TV Coverage
Internet Streams
NFL Streams - Look here 30 minutes before the game for Streams
Radio Streams
Disclaimer: Subscription Based Official NFL Radio Streams available via TuneIn
List of Eagles Radio network member stations with internet broadcast availability
Radio.com 94.1 Desktop Streaming
Listen to Merrill Reese and Mike Quick
Calling the game on 94WIP and the Eagles Radio Network will be Merrill Reese, the NFL’s longest-tenured play-by-play announcer (42nd season). Joining Reese in the radio booth will be former Eagles All-Pro wide receiver Mike Quick, while Howard Eskin will report from the sidelines.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA WIP-FM 94.1 FM and 610 AM
Allentown, PA WCTO-FM 96.1 FM
Atlantic City/South Jersey WENJ-FM 97.3 FM
Levittown, PA WBCB-AM 1490 AM
Northumberland, PA WEGH-FM 107.3 FM
Pottsville, PA WPPA-AM 1360 AM
Reading, PA WEEU-AM 830 AM
Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, PA WEJL-FM 96.1 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WAFL-FM 97.7 FM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WEJL-AM 630 AM
Salisbury/Ocean City, MD WBAX-AM 1240 AM
Williamsport, PA WBZD-FM 93.3 FM
Wilmington, DE WDEL-FM/AM 101.7 FM
York/LancasteHarrisburg, PA WSOX-FM 96.1 FM
Philadelphia Spanish Radio
Rickie Ricardo, Macu Berral and Gus Salazar will handle the broadcast in Spanish on Mega 105.7 FM in Philadelphia and the Eagles Spanish Radio Network.
Location Station Frequency
Philadelphia, PA LA MEGA 105.7 FM
Allentown, PA WSAN 1470 AM
Atlantic City, NJ WIBG 1020 AM; 101.3 FM
Seahawks Radio
Seahawks Radio Network Steve Raible returns for his 37th season in the radio booth, his 15th as the play-by-play announcer and “Voice of the Seahawks” after 22 seasons as the Seahawks analyst. Hall of Fame quarterback, Warren Moon, returns to the Seahawks radio team for his 15th season as an analyst.
National Radio
Westwood One will broadcast the game to a national audience with Kevin Harlan on play-by-play and Brian Griese providing analysis and Ross Tucker reporting from the sidelines.
Satellite Radio
Station Eagles Channel Seahawks Channel
Sirius Radio SIRI 83 (Internet 825) SIRI 82 (Internet 828)
XM Radio XM 225 (Internet 825) XM 226(Internet 828)
Sirius XM Radio SXM 225 (Internet 825) SXM 226 (Internet 828)
Eagles Social Media Seahawks Social Media
Website Website
Facebook Facebook
Twitter Twitter
Instagram Instagram
Snapchat: Eagles Snapchat: Seahawks
NFC East Standings
NFC EAST Record PCT Home Road Div Conf PF PA Net Pts Streak
Eagles 9-7 .563 5-3 4-4 5-1 7-5 385 354 +31 4W
Cowboys 8-8 .500 5-3 3-5 5-1 7-5 434 321 +113 1W
Giants 4-12 .250 2-6 2-6 2-4 3-9 341 451 -110 1L
Redskins 3-13 .188 1-7 2-6 0-6 2-10 266 435 -169 4L
NFC Playoff Picture
Seed Team Division Record
1 49ers West 13-3
2 Packers West 13-3
3 Saints South 13-3
4 Eagles East 9-7
5 Seahawks West 11-5
6 Vikings North 10-6
This Weekends NFC Games
Game Time Location
Vikings @ Saints 1/5/2020 1:05PM EST Mercedes-Benz Stadium, New Orleans, LA
Seahawks @ Eagles 1/5/2020 4:40PM EST Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA
AFC Playoff Picture
Seed Team Division Record
1 Ravens North 14-2
2 Chiefs West 12-4
3 Patriots East 12-4
4 Texans South 10-6
5 Bills East 10-6
6 Titans South 9-7
This Weekends AFC Games
Game Time Location
Bills @ Texans 1/4/2020 4:35PM EST NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Titans @ Patriots 1/4/2020 8:15PM EST Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Series Information
The Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (10-7)
Series History
Head to Head Box Scores
First Game Played
December 12th, 1976 at Veteran's Stadium Philadelphia, PA. Philadelphia Eagles 27 - Seattle Seahawks 10
Points Leader
Seattle Seahawks lead the Philadelphia Eagles (350-319)
Coaches Record
Doug Pederson: 0- against the Seahawks
Pete Carroll: 5-1 against Eagles
Coaches Head to Head
Doug Pederson vs Pete Carroll: Carroll leads 3-0
Quarterback Record
Carson Wentz: Against Seahawks: 0-3
Russell Wilson: Against Eagles: 4-0
Quarterbacks Head to Head
Carson Wentz vs Russell Wilson: Wilson leads 3-0
Records per Stadium
Record @ Lincoln Financial Field: Seahawks lead the Eagles: 4-0
Record @ CenturyLink Field: Seahawks lead 3-2
Rankings and Last Meeting Information
AP Pro 32 Ranking
Eagles No. 11 - Seahawks No. 7
Record
Eagles: 9-7
Seahawks: 11-5
Last Meeting
Sunday, Nov 24th, 2019
Seahawks 17 – Eagles 9
In a sloppy rainy game with high winds both QBs struggled, but the Wilson made plays when it counted and got help from running back Rashaad Penny who had a career day running for 129 yards including a 58 yard TD run. The Eagles defense was again fooled by a trick play on a flea flicker which saw Wilson hit Malik Turner for a 33 yard TD. The Eagles offense was terrible struggling to get anything going all day and missing key players including Jeffrey, Jackson, Agholor, Howard, Johnson and Brooks didn’t help. It was the worst game of the season for Wentz who turned the ball over 4 times in the Eagles loss. Russel Wilson continued his dominance over the Eagles and remained undefeated against them in his 8 year career.
Click here to view the Video Recap
Click here to view the Stats Recap
Last 10 Meetings
Date Winner Loser Score
11/24/19 Seahawks Eagles 17-9
12/3/17 Seahawks Eagles 24-10
11/20/16 Seahawks Eagles 26-15
12/07/14 Seahawks Eagles 24-14
12/01/11 Seahawks Eagles 31-14
11/02/08 Eagles Seahawks 26-7
12/02/07 Seahawks Eagles 28-24
12/05/05 Seahawks Eagles 42-0
12/08/02 Eagles Seahawks 27-20
09/23/01 Eagles Seahawks 27-3
Injury Reports Depth Charts
Eagles Eagles
Seahawks Seahawks
2019 “Expert” Picks
Week 12 - "Expert" Picks
2019 Team Stats
Eagles Season Stats
Seahawks Season Stats
2019 Stats (Starters/Leaders)
Passing
Name CMP ATT PCT YDS TD INT RAT
Wentz 388 607 63.9% 4037 27 7 93.1
Wilson 341 516 66.1% 4110 31 5 106.3
Rushing
Name ATT YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Sanders 179 818 51.1 4.6 3
Carson(IR) 278 1230 82.0 4.4 7
Lynch 12 34 34.0 2.8 1
Receiving
Name REC YDS YDS/G AVG TD
Ertz 88 916 61.1 10.4 6
Lockett 82 1057 66.1 12.9 8
Sacks
Name Sacks Team Total
Graham 8.5 43
Green 4.0 28
Tackles
Name Total Solo Assist Sacks
Jenkins 80 62 18 2.5
Wagner 159 86 73 3.0
Interceptions
Name Ints Team Total
Gerry/Jones/Darby/McLeod 2 11
Wright/Flowers/Diggs 3 16
Punting
Name ATT YDS LONG AVG NET IN 20 TB BP
Johnston 71 3292 61 46.4 42.3 28 4 0
Dickson 74 3341 63 44.1 40.9 34 5 0
Kicking
Name ATT MADE % LONG PAT
Elliot 26 22 84.6% 53 35/37
Myers 28 23 82.1% 54 40/44
Kick Returns
Name ATT YDS AVG LONG TD
Sanders 14 314 22.4 67 0
Lockett 14 279 33 0
Punt Returns
Name RET YDS AVG LONG TD FC
Scott 6 43 7.2 13 0 4
Lockett 13 66 5.1 20 0 10
League Rankings 2019
Offense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Seahawks Stat Seahawks Rank
Total Offense 360.8 14th 374.4 8th
Rush Offense 121.2 11th 137.5 4th
Pass Offense 239.6 11th 236.9 14th
Points Per Game 24.1 12th 25.3 9th
3rd-Down Offense 45.4% 4th 39.5% 16th
4th-Down Offense 33.3% 28th(t) 50.0% 13th(t)
Red Zone Offense (TD%) 66.7% 3rd 63.3% 9th
Defense Rankings
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Seahawks Stat Seahawks Rank
Total Defense 331.7 10th 381.6 26th
Rush Defense 90.1 3rd 117.7 22nd
Pass Defense 241.6 19th 263.9 27th
Points Per Game 22.1 15th 24.9 22nd
3rd-Down Defense 34.2% 4th 38.3% 16th
4th-Down Defense 61.1% 27th 58.5% 24th
Red Zone Defense (TD%) 55.8% 14th(t) 61.5% 26th
Team
Category Eagles Stat Eagles Rank Seahawks Stat Seahawks Rank
Turnover Diff. -3 22nd +12 3rd(t)
Penalty Per Game 6.8 9th(t) 7.1 16th(t)
Penalty Yards Per Game 52.3 9th 55.1 13th
Connections
Eagles HC Doug Pederson was born in Bellingham, WA, and grew up in Ferndale, WA. Pederson recently admitted that he "Grew up a Seahawks Fan" and used to attend Seahawks games at The Kingdome.
Eagles LBs coach Ken Flajole is from Seattle and previously coached the Seahawks’ DBs (1999, 2001-02) and LBs (2000).
Eagles Safeties coach Tim Hauck played for the Seahawks in 1997.
Eagles Defensive Line coach Phillip Daniels was selected by Seattle in the 4th round of the 1996 NFL Draft.
Seahawks Northeast Area Scout Todd Brunner worked for the Eagles for four seasons (1994-97) as an area scout covering the Northeast. He joined the Eagles as a scouting intern in 1992 and worked as a scouting assistant in 1993.
Eagles CB Sidney Jones attended University of Washington.
Seahawks LB Mychal Kendricks played 6 seasons for the Eagles from 2012-2017 including winning a Super Bowl with him in Super Bowl LII.
2020 Pro Bowlers
Eagles Seahawks
DT Fletcher Cox (Starter) QB Russel Wilson (Starter)
OG Brandon Brooks (Starter) MLB Bobby Wagner (Starter)
TE Zach Ertz
C Jason Kelce (Starter)
LS Rick Lavato (Starter)
Recap from Last Week 17’s Games.
Eagles
Video
With the division on the line, the Eagles controlled their own destiny as they took on the division rival New York Giants on the road. The Eagles were already short and then they lost running back Miles Sanders and three-time Pro Bowl right guard Brandon Brooks in the first half. But Scott, Josh Perkins, Greg Ward, Deontay Burnett and Robert Davis combined for 16 catches on 25 targets, 225 yards receiving, 54 yards rushing and four TDs. The five players were cut a combined eight times by four teams since Aug. 31. But Carson Wentz got the most out of them as he lead the Eagles to their 4th must win game in a row beating the Giants 34-17.
Seahawks
Video
The Seahawks were playing for the division title against the 49ers in week 17 with a playoff spot already locked in for both teams. In the first half, the 49ers dominated, taking a 13–0 halftime lead aided by a Deebo Samuel 30-yard touchdown run on a pitch and catch. The 49ers also held Seattle to just 79 yards of total offense, including stuffing running back Marshawn Lynch on 4th and inches from the 49ers 31-yard line, causing a turnover on downs. In the second half, the Seahawks proved resilient, scoring multiple times. The Seahawks would never lead in this game however, as the 49ers countered every Seahawks score with one of their own, including a Raheem Mostert 13-yard touchdown run to make it 26–14 with 5:51 left. After Seattle cut the lead to five, a questionable personal foul call against Ben Garland forced a punt, giving them the ball back with 2:27 left. They marched all the way down to the 49ers 1-yard line, but a delay of game penalty pushed them back to the 6-yard line. After three incomplete passes, the Seahawks faced 4th and goal. Russell Wilson hit receiver Jacob Hollister with a pass to the 49ers 1-yard line, but Hollister was stopped inches short of the goal line by linebacker Dre Greenlaw, causing a turnover on downs with nine seconds left that sealed the victory.
General
Referee: Shawn Smith
Including playoffs, Philadelphia has the 2nd-best home winning percentage (.735, 25-9) in the NFL since 2016, trailing only New England (.838, 31-6).
In Week 17, the Eagles totaled 400+ yards for the 4th consecutive game, which is Eagles the longest stretch of 400+ yards since 2013 (6 games).
The Eagles captured their 2nd division title in the last three seasons and 3rd consecutive postseason berth (2017-19).
Philadelphia owns the No. 4 seed in the NFC Playoffs heading into Wild Card Weekend (Jan. 4-5, 2020).
Doug Pederson is the first Eagles head coach to lead his team to three straight postseason appearances since Andy Reid from 2008-10.
Philadelphia has made the playoffs in three-or-more consecutive seasons for the 6th time in team history.
The Eagles have earned a postseason berth for the 27th time in franchise history (since 1933).
Since 2000, Philadelphia is tied for the 4th-most playoff appearances (13) in the NFL, behind New England (17), Green Bay (14) and Indianapolis (14).
The Eagles are NFC East Champions for the 11th time in franchise history.
Philadelphia’s nine NFC East championships since 2001 are the most in the division, ahead of Dallas (5), N.Y. Giants (3) and Washington (2)
Draft Picks
Eagles Seahawks
OT Andre Dillard DE L.J. Collier
RB Miles Sanders S Marquise Blair
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside WR DK Metcalf
WR Shareff Miller LB Cody Barton
QB Clayton Thorson WR Gary Jennings Jr.
G Phil Hayes
CB Ugo Amadi
LB Ben Burr-Kirven
RB Travis Homer
DT Demarcus Christmas
WR John Ursua
Notable Off-season Additions
Eagles Seahawks
WR Desean Jackson DE Jadeveon Clowney
DT Malik Jackson DE Ziggy Ansah
DE Vinny Curry DT Al Woods
DT Hassan Ridgeway WR Josh Gordon
QB Josh McCown QB Geno Smith
G Mike Iupati
K Jason Myers
FB Nick Bellore
Notable Off-season Departures
Eagles Seahawks
QB “Big Dick” Nick Foles FS Earl Thomas
DE Michael Bennett SS Kam Chancellor
DE Chris Long WR Doug Baldwin
S Chris Maragos WR Paul Richardson
RB Jay Ajayi DE Frank Clark
RB Josh Adams K Sebastian Janikowski
RB Wendell Smallwood G J.R. Sweezy
DT Haloti Ngata CB Justin Coleman
DT Shamar Stephen
SS Maurice Alexander
QB Brett Hundley
Pro Football Focus Matchup Charts courtesy of PFF Edge (join.profootballfocus.com/edge/)
WDB Matchups (CAPS = expected shadow coverage)
Stats to Know
Russell Wilson’s Deep Ball
The Eagles have not been great at defending the deep ball. Russell Wilson is good at the deep ball. I should just leave it at that, but that’s not what you’re here for. In 2019, Wilson’s averaging the 2nd-highest percentage of total throws targeting 20+ yards downfield (16.5%). Over the previous 3 seasons, Wilson has been 3rd, 2nd, and 8th. His Adjusted Completion % (accounting for drops) is 48.2%, good for 8th. His Passer Rating on Deep Balls is 119.2, good for 4th.
Matchups to Watch
Seahawks Pass Defense vs. the Eagles Pass Offense
Well, now the Eagles are in the playoffs after this tumultuous season. Anything can happen with this team, whether it's one and done or a Super Bowl run. Before we can all think about the future of this postseason, the Eagles need to get by a tough opponent in the Seattle Seahawks. Pete Carroll's Seattle teams, with or without Wilson, has owned the Eagles. That extended into this season with the Seahawks winning an ugly game against the then hapless Eagles. A lot has changed for Philly since then, mainly their success through the air. The Nobodies have stepped up to help Carson eLeVaTe the passing offense as he nearly averaged 300 yard passing per game in the final 4 weeks of the season. Carson has played really well and the coaches stepped up big to help get the passing game going. Their game plan can't, and won't, be a repeat of their early "death by one thousand slant/flats" if they want to win. And the offense can't turn the ball over at the rate they did if they expect to win. This is an athletic pass defense with two great LBs that excel in coverage. The Eagles will need to continue to move the pocket for Wentz to extend the time to throw which will allow deeper shots to open up. Due to personnel, this isn't an offense that can rely on its skill position players to consistently win 1v1. They'll need to continue to be creative in their usage of screens to prevent the defense form keying on them again. If Zach Ertz is able to play, that would be a huge win for the Eagles as he is their best natural separator. Seattle is an easy defense to scheme for as there is very little they change on a week to week basis. It's just being able to hit on the plays they scheme up. One injury for the Seahawks that important to watch is the status of safety Quandre Diggs; he was acquired from the Lions on the cheap (for some reason) and is a key player in their coverage schemes. As of now, the Seahawks should be expecting him to go as he was a full participant in their latest practice report. Either way, this is the 15th ranked passing defense by DVOA. They can be beat through the air. It would be wise for them to build off the game plan the Niners used last week to win in Seattle.
Seahawks Run Defense vs Eagles Running Backs
Philly wasn't able to have a lot of success on the ground the last time they played for a number of reasons. One big reason for that was the injuries on the offensive line - which remains the same for the rematch. Lane Johnson's status for Sunday is still unknown and stud Guard Brandon Brooks landed on IR after the week 17 win against the Giants. The backups have played decently well in reliefof the two key linemen but their absence will always loom large. The variety of concepts the Eagles use in the run game is a big factor in its success as it keeps opposing defenses off-balance. Being down Brooks and Lane could hinder what the Eagles like to do if their replacements can't adequately step up. Moreover, Sanders sustained an injury last week (ankle) and should play, but his effectiveness really won't be known until game time. Since the bye, Sanders has stepped up in a big way when Jordan Howard's shoulder died. Sanders proved he is a capable receiver and pass blocker early on but really improved his ability as a runner very quickly when the team needed him the most. If he is able to be effective on Sunday, that would be a huge boost to the undermanned Philly offense. Additionally, Boston Scott has continued to step up for the Eagles when they need him the most. Scott doesn't profile as an every down back but was able to take that role last week when Sanders left the game. His ability to consistently find the open rush lanes has been paramount to his success. Like Sanders, when Scott is able to get the ball in space he is able to create chunk plays to move the sticks. Jordan Howard returned to the line up last week; while he only played one snap, his ability to now play should help the Eagles rushing attack. This Seattle defensive line is a weak unit that is missing key players. Jadeveon Clowney has been banged up for most of the season and his status for Sunday is questionable. His absence would be a huge boost for the Eagles. This Seattle rushing defense is 26th in DVOA; if the Eagles offensive line was 100% heading into Sunday, this would be the single biggest mismatch in this contest. As it stands now, the Eagles should have enough in their reserves to be effective against this front, but that is a risky bet. They weren't effective in their first meeting - they need to change that to win.
Russell Wilson and the Seahawks Receivers vs the Eagles Secondary
Russell Wilson has owned the Eagles in his career but will be entering Sunday's contest off his worst performance against this team in his career. He was sacked 6 times and was generally inaccurate for most of the game. He struggled to pick up some of the coverage changes the Eagles implemented in their secondary and lead to below average play. He's still Russell Wilson and this is still the Eagles pass defense: you simply cannot bet on the Eagles secondary anymore. Wilson has been a top 2 QB this year in an MVP caliber year carrying the Seahawks to this point in the season. There are very few instances in his time with the Seahawks where the Seahawks are down by double-digits late in a game. This is an Eagles secondary that struggles to stop the big play and cover outside receivers - the Seahawks have two dangerous weapons outside. The Eagles should have everyones favorite terrible CB back for this contest... Jalen Mills. The starter opposite him will be a mystery. Since his early season benching, Sidney Jones has been absolutely clutch for the Eagles on their current run. While his play hasn't been perfect, he's been less of a disaster than he previously was. Avonte Maddox and Cre'von Leblanc are fresh off really good performances against the Giants. If I had to guess, Maddox will start outside and Leblanc will see the slot; Jones would work into the rotation in more CB heavy looks. As previously mentioned, not only was Russ generally inaccurate in the first meeting, his receivers had a lot of key drops as well. Here is a big gain dropped by DK Metcalf. How about this dropped TD by DK Metcalf? Or this bricked layup TD pass from Wilson? My point is this: I generally think the Eagles pass defense, namely the secondary, has been more lucky than good in the second half of the season en route to an NFCE title. They are still here, which is awesome, but until they actually clean up their games it's hard to bet on them succeeding. Russ is one of the best passers in the league; it doesn't matter if he is scrambling or in the pocket, he'll generally eat you alive. This is a WR group, especially with Lockett and Metcalf, that will make defenses pay. They didn't last time, I don't think the Eagles will be so lucky this time. If I'm the Seahawks, I throw early and often. The Eagles defensive ranks against outside WRs: Yards allowed: 32nd, Explosive receptions: 29th, TDs: 29th, Yards per target: 27th. If Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer maintain status quo, like they do for some inexplicable reason, the Eagles have a real chance.
**Seahawks Decimated Offensive Line vs Eagles Pass Rush
The biggest aid to a struggling secondary is a strong pass rush. This is the foundation of the Eagles defense. While it isn't the stupid good group from the Super Bowl, it is still one of the best units in the league in getting pressure. Seattle has had bad offensive lines for years now and the group that'll start on Sunday fits that mold. Stud LT Duane Brown should miss this contest with a knee issue; this is a bad injury for the Seahawks as he is their best offensive lineman. The rest of their group is a well-below average unit that struggles in pass protection. The Eagles were able to get after Russell Wilson with 6 sacks in the first meeting and will need that kind of pressure again. Wilson can still make plays with his arm and legs while under pressure but it's still a difficult task for him. Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham will need to continue to create havoc in the trenches. Derek Barnett must continue to build off his strong outing against the Giants. And if Timmy Jernigan can continue to play well, instead of up and down, then the Eagles should be able to get after Russ like they did Daniel Jones one week ago. The Eagles need to put this Seattle offense in bad situations to help out the secondary and help force some turnovers.
Special thanks to MikeTysonChicken and abenyishay for their help in creating this Game Preview.
submitted by Rsubs33 to eagles [link] [comments]

Help Dealing with my Brother

I've read some stuff off and on within this subreddit, and I truly empathize/sympathize with you all.
This is going to be a bit long, so I appreciate you all for reading/commenting if you choose to do so.
It sucks having a dysfunctional family, especially when you have friends or in-laws that just seem to have perfectly loving, functional families.
Anyway, about my brother.
He's my only brother and sibling, and he's almost 7 years older than me. Growing up we never really had a relationship because he spent all of his time in his room studying. Being he was a bit older, he was always one step in life ahead of me. So when I started school, he was in middle school. By the time I got to 6th grade he was a freshman in college and was gone from the house.
Fast forward to 2013 when I move across the state to the city he lives in. I'm thinking it's 2 birds with one stone kinda deal: I attempt to build a relationship with my brother, and I get to be in a city with excellent job prospecting opportunities.
Prior to this, I saw my brother maybe 8-10 times per year, because he was my mom's favorite, she wanted him to visit as often as he could, and he's never lived more than 6 hours away. And being I later found out that he practically despises our dad, he rarely ever visited or spent time with him.
I had suspected that my brother was gay for a number of years, and that doesn't bother me. But for him, he felt he'd be judged for it. Understandingly since my family is fairly religious. I myself have been involved in worship bands and churches for a number of years (honestly, it's what kept me sane over the years).
I've never judged my brother for his lifestyle or any of the choices he's made, but last year he really drove me over the edge to the point I don't even want to speak with him.
My brother is a narcissist. To the max. Every time I've talked with him over the years, he's always talked about himself ad nauseam. I know everything about his co-workers, his bosses, his "roommate(s)", their kids, his so-called fiends. With each new time we'd meet up for something, I was unwillingly brought into the fold of what had happened in his life (especially at work) since the last time I'd seen him. Not once did he ever ask me how I was doing. He will accept some responsibility, but everything that's happened to him is always somehow "unexpected" and happened to him "for no reason" and he's the victim that "did nothing to deserve" what happened to him.
So my brother has mostly been a post-secondary educator ever since he got his master's back in the early 00's. His first gig, he claimed he lost because his mentor, based on my brother's side of the story, essentially spent every waking hour of his life trying to get rid of my brother in various ways. This guy was jealous of him because he wasn't from that state, didn't go to a school in that state, etc. etc.
So he ends up moving from that city back to our home state for another post-secondary position. He was in this one for the better part of a decade until late 2018 when stuff began going sideways.
My brother has never been able to handle adversity well. I found this out first-hand when he got into a minor car accident. I went to pick him up and take him to where his car was so he could get stuff out of it, and he just randomly says "guess I'll have to quit my job now". When I asked him why, he responded saying he didn't have a way to get there, so they'd just fire him. I told him he needed to call and get a rental set up, and he had friends at work who surely wouldn't mind giving him a lift a few days. I should have seen it coming, but I didn't.
So the start of the 2018/19 school year began, and things began happening at work. Earlier that year, his previous partner had screwed up his taxes (my brother doesn't have a lot of common sense) purposely and he owed thousands. And being that my brother can't handle adversity, this drove him insane.
He had, on at least one occasion, been forcefully admitted to the psych wing of the local hospital for a 24-48 hour watch by this time. Here's a brief list of stupid things he's done since 2018:

Now, the landlord of the townhouse was selling it, and gave him plenty of time to look for something else. He even told him that if he moved out earlier in the month, he wouldn't charge him for that month at all. Instead, he stayed there until the last day he possibly could, set the place on fire causing damage, and still needed 2 additional weeks to get his junk out of there. When he and I sat down to discuss the terms of him moving into our house, I told him that when I showed up that Saturday to help him move, he needed to have everything packed up and ready to go. I thought he was actually being responsible when he told me earlier in that week leading up to that weekend that he had gotten a storage unit and was planning on moving the small stuff into it during the week. When I showed up, hardly anything had been done. Nothing was packed. He had essentially moved one car-load's worth of stuff into the storage unit. I was infuriated. He told me he was "too depressed" to pack his stuff, that all he and his boyfriend would do is sit and cry all day. He left his boyfriend at the hotel who wanted to come and help, but since my brother's best friend from his last job was coming to help and he couldn't stand the guy, he wouldn't let him come.
He often did things like that. He would perceive things incorrectly and act on this misconceptions. The few times he did stay at our home, half the time his boyfriend was here with us on the weekends, which we told him was fine.
One Sunday, it was mid-afternoon and we were wondering when he would be taking him back to where ever it was he was staying. I texted him asking him about it. He never responded until 9pm saying "it's 9pm dude". So he forced him to stay with us an extra day or 2. One time I talked my wife into letting him stay for the week to give my brother time to clear some things up. Which he didn't.
Granted, every conversation I have with him it's all about him. When he was moving stuff into our house, he had friends come and help move his upright piano into our home. While his friends were all slaving away bringing his stuff inside, they were in the kitchen. My brother just looks at me and randomly says "well aren't you going to say hey to him?" ("him" replacing his boyfriend's name for privacy"). I said that we had both acknowledged each other earlier by nodding heads, because I was busy doing something else when they showed up. He responds "well that isn't good enough". Who tf are you to say how I greet people in our home?!
He once needed some gas money for an interview, so I told him I'd help him. He's driving me to a bank I'm directing him to, and he's driving erratically through our neighborhood. When I call him down, he gets all sad-faced on me. The first bank we pull up to, the ATM is out of commission. So he starts pouting. I direct him to the bank across the street, and he's driving erratically again, where he's slamming the gas pedal and brakes so hard he slides a little up to the ATM. I've had enough at this point and tell him if he doesn't stop, he won't get a dime. Then he really starts to pout. We get the money, and he's driving carelessly back to our home, almost hitting vehicles. I don't get nervous about much, but I was at this point. I call him out on it, asking him how would he feel if he caused an accident and killed someone. He responds "I'd feel good, because then I would have gotten someone because everyone's always getting me". I felt that in the pit of my stomach, and fortunately we were entering our neighborhood at that time.
His best friend reached out to me because he was concerned for him. My brother twisted that into I as trying to steal his best friend.
I found a rental home near the downtown area and vouched for him to the woman who was working with the owner to lease it. Said she often worked with people who struggle with credit issues and had no problems working with my brother on deposit issues. I tell him about it, tell him to call her, and he calls me back in a few days and says "well, I ruined that opportunity". Apparently, he had trouble finding it, so he called her and said that, called her a liar, said nobody wanted to help him, and hung up on her.
I was on the way to a grocery store with him to buy him food with my money when he looked at me dead in the face and said nobody cared about him or wanted to do anything for him.
He also had 2 other roommates in the townhouse who were junkies.
His boyfriend had 2 friends who often crashed at his place. They went to stay where ever they were staying, which turns out it was the son of a prominent local family who was a drug addict. The story changed so often I had no idea what to believe about this dude. One day it was he would force everyone to stay in their rooms and be quiet and not make a sound, the next story was they had a birthday party for my brother's boyfriend and was able to do it because "some dude showed up" that this guy was apparently afraid of, so he didn't "act his normal self".
Christmas last year, my mom pleaded with him to come, and prior to that, he finally came out to my parents. Surprisingly they're ok with it, and still love him. I don't think that was the response he thought he was going to get. Anyway, he's been trying to find places to unload his jobless, licence-less, car-less boyfriend and couldn't, so he asked if he could come with him to my mom's for Christmas. My mom reluctantly agreed. That meant that he and his boyfriend as well as my wife and I would be cramped up in this small 3 br, 1 bath house.
He was able to unload the boyfriend somewhere, so he came alone. He got there a day ahead of us, and practically spent several hours trashing my wife and I, saying how horrible we had been to him. I know this because my cousin was there to hear it all. It made her so uncomfortable, she left.
Christmas Eve arrives, and we typically have some family over, and my brother takes center stage. He's telling anyone who will listen about what happened to him at his previous job. Gaining as much sympathy as he can. Now mind you, I had changed jobs while he was jobless, and my brother doesn't understand that I'm in an industry that's always in demand. I get phone calls and emails weekly from recruiters. So I felt bad telling him about my new 80k job. He had zero issues telling whoever would listen that once he got his stuff in order and the state approved his experience and such, he'd be making "60 thousand, which is the most he'd ever made". Meanwhile, very few others get speak because he was being so loud. Finally, he just disappeared. It was then I was able to catch up with some family on what they're doing and such.
I found out through my cousin, that my brother had called my dad (which he despises) to ask if he could borrow a store credit card to a local store to shop because he essentially didn't want to spend what little he had. Fine. But my brother abused it, spending $1200-$1400 on random gifts he put no thought into, buying stuff for himself, his boyfriend, and his boyfriend's random friends. Christmas eve he just randomly gave us our gifts, unwrapped. He had never done that before.
(Random story, but it's related: Right before I started the job mentioned above, I went to the local outlets to do some shopping. I asked if he wanted to join us to get him out of the house. He agreed. My wife didn't really want him coming because she said he'd get depressed because he wouldn't have any money to spend. Well, she was right. As soon as I bought my first pair of Oakley's in years, it went south. I asked him why was he sad, and he said he had no money to spend. I told him we just wanted his company, that's all. He then started complaining that last year's Christmas he couldn't buy gifts like he wanted to, and he was depressed over that. When he wouldn't get up and move, I sarcastically told him to take an Uber back to our house. After I went back to my wife and told her she was right, we couldn't find him. He was about to start walking down the on-ramp of the interstate when he finally answered his phone saying since he was too poor to afford a ride, he was going to walk back to our house. We picked him up near the interstate intersection.)
Christmas morning, my mom had to force him out of bed. My dad showed up (parents are divorced) to take part in the gift exchange, and we always start with the youngest. My wife suggested we change it up and go in the reverse order. So my dad started first. The entire time my brother is slouched on the couch, halfway paying attention to what's going on. My dad only had 2 gifts, one from each of us. My brother got him a pair of slippers. With his own credit card. And they were the wrong size.
When it was my brother's turn, the first thing he opened was a pair of jeans from my mom. The first thing that came out of his mouth was "these are the wrong size". And they briefly argued about it. I'm sitting there feeling bad for my wife because I had to beg her to come because she didn't want to deal with him. We had dealt with him enough already up to that point. He sees our gift, opens it, looks at it, sticks it back inside the bag, and nonchalantly thanks us. After he's done, it's now my turn. He puts his hat over his head and starts trying to go to sleep on the couch. My mom tells him to wake up, that my wife and I still had gifts to open. He literally thought we were done after him. He hadn't paid any attention at all. It was extremely awkward. After we finished he got up and went back to bed.
Christmas dinner, my brother was sitting at the table looking like he just lost his life savings on a sure bet. We all sit down, and apparently my brother needs to scratch his back, so he wants to get up and go to the threshold of the door and scratch it like a bear (hey, I do that too). But my parents wanted to say grace over the meal. He went back and forth with my mom about wanting to scratch his back. He finally stayed seated through the short prayer for the meal. Afterwards he gets up and walks to the threshold and sarcastically says "you could have just done it while I was doing this".
This is a 40 year old man. He acts like a 16 year old dude-bro. He did one of the strangest things I've ever seen towards my brother-in-law, who is sadistic in his own right. My BIL was sitting in a chair in our living room and my brother walks in, stops in front of him, stands there for like 5 seconds in silence, throws up double deuces, cocking his head sideways and says "wassup", and then walks away.
He's used his sexuality as a crutch, claims people are jealous of his musical talent (he's an extremely gifted pianist) and his education (he went to one of the top public schools in the states. And even now, where he got a secondary education position, they've forced him to go on personal leave and see a therapist, and it's the same song and dance from him. "The assistant principle doesn't like me, so they're going to get me fired".
The piano was/is another fiasco. He's had it for years. All I asked was if we could hold onto it for a little while so I could enjoy it. I took lessons and play as well. He lost his mind. Saying it was his, it was given to him, he was the reason we had a piano growing up (which is true, because duh, he's older than me and was the first to take lessons). He basically claimed I was the beneficiary of his amazing talents. His reasons for why he should keep the piano (I never said I wanted it for good, just for a time period since he'd had for 15+ years) was that his second undergraduate degree was in music, specifically piano performance, he was the more talented pianist, and it was given to him. All I wanted was to share it. He was like "you have your sax and guitar and drums, why do you need my piano". I just wanted it for 6 months. Then he could have it. We then agreed that I'd hold it until he could afford to move it wherever he went.
A few weeks after that conversation he was kicked out of a hotel and had nowhere to go, so I said for him to come stay with us. I poured a glass of water and put a fresh towel in the guest bathroom upstairs. When he came into the house, he found a corner and went and stood in it. Said he'd just sleep there. After some arguing, he asked if I wanted to know why he wouldn't stay with us, and it was because of our conversation over the piano. I told him about the fresh towel, but he got up and left the next morning without taking a shower wearing the same clothes he had on when he showed up. His students starting noticing and asking him why he was wearing the same clothes, and he was stupid enough to tell them the truth.
He had a prop in his room that the school deemed he couldn't have in there, and when his students asked why it wasn't there anymore, he told them the assistant principle didn't like it, so she made him take it home. Why tf would you say that?
There's a lot more, and I'm certainly not an angel and have said things to him I shouldn't have, and I have apologized to him for it. I just don't know how to handle this moving forward. He's yet again on the verge of losing another job, and he went and got some expensive apartment because it was the only place that didn't require him to put a lot down. And he's said he knows he should have saved some money and gotten something less expensive, but he couldn't pass this up. THAT WAS THE ENTIRE POINT OF HIM STAYING WITH US. He paid us next to nothing, meanwhile he saves up money, would be in a positive environment and away from these weird people he hangs with. But he chose that over us.
If you have any advice, or anything at all to share, please do.
TL;DR: I have a narcissistic brother who only cares about himself and keeps putting himself in bad situations and blaming others for it and is on the verge of cutting ties with his whole family because of his mentality.
submitted by WhitePigeon1986 to DysfunctionalFamily [link] [comments]

A tale of a Frozen Fan who saw Frozen 2 in the theaters WAY too many times...

This is quite a thicky read. Just a warning. (6000+ words)

Introduction

How many times have you watched your favorite movie? I used to think back to the movies I’d watched all the time and say “Yeah, I’ve seen that movie like 50 times!” But then Frozen 2 happened… and I actually lived that number.
I’ve been a huge Frozen fan since the beginning of its release. Though something rather odd happened when Frozen 2 released. Sure it was just another thing I really liked that was happening, cool. I was hyped for the movie, but I never knew what was going to happen after watching it. Suddenly, my life just became… Frozen. Everything in my everyday life was Frozen. Between the time of the movie’s release, until it’s last theatrical showing, every single day was experiencing Frozen 2 in one form or another. I’m basically known as “The Frozen Guy” by many, many people. And I’m here to tell you how it all happened. I’d like to take you on a journey through a Frozen Cinema Experience where one college student becomes the ultimate Frozen Fanatic.

Frozen Background

Frozen released back in 2013, at that point the only Disney movie I’d seen was The Lion King. Disney was never really a part of my life. I never watched Disney movies or the Disney channel, and back then I only knew about Frozen through memes. I saw a few and had no context of the movie itself until a friend told me to watch it because of how good it supposedly was. So I took the liberty to watch it on an illegal cam. Hear me out, I had no money or transport to see it in theaters at the time.
I can’t remember my initial thoughts on the movie, all I knew is that I absolutely loved it. Fell in love instantaneously. As a 14-year-old boy, I was that 9-year-old girl who had Let It Go on repeat, constantly, for 2 years. It cemented itself into a really nostalgic part of my life, as it consumed me for a while during my first year of high school.
From late 2013 til sometime in 2015, I watched Frozen allllllll the time. Even ask my dad, there was one day he sat down and watched the movie with his new girlfriend, I was in the kitchen or bathroom and heard the first song and ran to the living room, yelled “FROZEN!” and plopped myself on the couch and watched with them. I loved this movie. I loved all the songs, I listened to them all the time.
I don’t think I really knew at the time why I liked Frozen so much, but I definitely learned in recent years. I think it clicked with me so well because it just hit all the right nerves in me. Frozen, while marketed as a super happy-go-lucky fun family movie, is a very, very sad movie. I’m sad during most of the movie. I fell in love with the tragedy of the backstory, the hardship and depression Elsa went through. The pain and confusion Anna went through, for 13 years of their life! I love tragedies (although Frozen ends happily). I just love watching movies that make me sad. I think because I’m blessed with a happy enough life that I don’t experience too much sadness, so when I watch something that can hit me with that much emotion, I just have to love it. I absolutely love dark/depressing themes. Another main point is Anna. While everyone was glorifying Elsa, I LOVED Anna in Frozen. She was my favorite character and again I didn’t know why at the time, but I think it’s because I relate to her more than any character I’ve ever seen in any movie. A hyper-optimistic, awkward, lonely, desperate-for-love, extrovert, trusting, determined adventurist. All of her qualities seemed to hit with me, and I just related to her so well – which is why a lot of people like things. Finally, the movie just kept me wanting more. Elsa’s powers were SO interesting to me, but she really didn’t use them all that much in the first movie. When she did, I was on the edge of my seat, like when she built her castle and when she was attacking Weselton’s men, it’s so intensely beautiful. Since this movie was the only source to watch her use her powers, I watched it a lot over and over again just to watch Elsa use her powers, maybe that’s why I watched Let It Go 1,500 times.
Eventually, time passed and that obsession with Frozen diminished, not entirely though, I didn’t watch the movie as frequently or listen to the songs as much; however, when asked my favorite Disney movie, Frozen was still my first answer, and I always went back now and then to listen to the soundtrack, which almost made it better. Giving Let It Go a listen once every few months helps it keep its power. Frozen was even the first movie I thought to get when starting a movie collection in 2018.

Frozen 2 Beginnings

It wasn’t until February 13th, 2019 that my love for Frozen would shine again. I remember watching that first reveal trailer and freaking out. I had just finished watching a Nintendo Direct and was already excited for all the new games coming out this year, but completely forgot about that when I saw “New Frozen 2 Trailer released.” Dear. Lord. I wish I could tell you my first impressions of that trailer. I fell in love with it because it seemed to be EVERYTHING I needed it to be. We get an amazing, confident-looking Elsa, running at an intense ocean using all her might and power to cross it. It was so intense, and the music increased that tension by 1000%. When the chant starts and Elsa is shooting that pink fire, that’s a shot that really stuck in my brain forever. Also, the trailer just had so many Zelda: Breath of The Wild vibes, which I thought of at first then saw memes about it, so there’s also another reason why I fell in love with it (as Breath of the Wild is one of my favorite games of all time).
I watched this trailer constantly throughout the year. The other trailers dropped, and I gave them a watch, but I kept going back to this teaser. It was short and sweet and beautiful. It’s just because I wanted this so bad, I wanted this movie more than anything. I remember in Zootopia when they made a stupid reference to Frozen 2 and I thought that was the greatest thing ever (keep in mind, I didn’t know Frozen 2 was under production until the trailer released).
Once tickets went on sale for Frozen 2, I bought 2 right away, I didn’t know who I was going with, all I knew was I was seeing it opening weekend. I unfortunately couldn’t see it opening night, but that was okay because at my school I performed Panic! At the Disco’s Into the Unknown and blew everyone away. When that song dropped, I honestly didn’t like it at first, but it grew on me FAST. And I then gave the Elsa version a listen, but I stopped for 2 reasons: It didn’t seem as good as the rocking Panic! Version, and I wanted to wait until I saw the movie to hear all the songs.
Finally, November 23rd, 2019 comes along. I go see the movie with 4 friends, and all I can say is. Masterpiece. Here are a few things that really stuck with me after my first viewing:
Hearing Vuelie, a slight reprisal of it, hit my heart SO HARD in the first moments of the movie I already knew I was in the position I’ve always needed to be. It felt like a nostalgic touch of the heart that hit me unlike any other nostalgia. I don’t know what it was about this Vulie reprisal, but my face instantly hurt from smiling so hard. Then seeing the girls as kids again just warmed my heart. The opening song and title card felt so intense, then Some Things Never Change was such a warm welcome back to the characters I knew and loved (I audibly gasped when Kristoff pulled out the ring). I was sitting in the happiest place I’ve ever known without knowing it. This intro was just so, so good.
Watching into The Unknown for the first time. This is a song I’ve been listening to for the last 2 weeks, practiced it on guitar and vocals for the last week, performed it, now here it is. My song! Wow. Oh. WOW. Was that an amazing scene. The visuals were just beyond what I could comprehend. When Elsa goes into the mist and screams “INTO THE UNKNOWN” I damn-near wanted to faint. It was insane! Such an amazing theatrical moment. This song does not hit the same when you watch it elsewhere.
One thing that really got me with this movie was the animation. That first shot of adult Elsa literally had me say “Wow.” And the lightning of Anna’s hair in the Autumn light, it was insane. During the scene where they first enter the forest, after that first viewing, I couldn’t tell you what happened because I was so stuck staring at the environment that I stopped paying attention to anything else. I did that a lot in this movie. It’s just so beautiful!
The next major parts that stuck was the fight with the Wind Spirit and the Fire Spirit. First of all, the music during Wind, wow. Just wow, and when Elsa lands on the ground and that shot of her shooting the tornado, probably still one of my favorite shots to this day. And the fast-paced action with fighting the Fire Spirit is the EXACT THING I wanted since the trailer. Watching Elsa whip around and shooting ice at this beautiful looking fire like crazy had me almost off my seat I was so excited. The pink fire and blue ice was an amazing color choice.
And then, the Earth Giants. These monsters took the show for me after the first viewing. They were set up PERFECTLY. The ominous shaking, big HUGE silhouette, then we get another sense of their size during the river scene, then one of my favorite scenes when Anna wakes them up and she chases them (I’m a sucker for chase scenes, and I was a sucker for these Earth Giants, so yeah I loved this scene).
Finally, Show Yourself. Let us take a step back real quick. When I first watched the Dark Sea scene, my brain instantly shut the world around me off. That first lightning strike took me straight back to February 13th, the first teaser trailer. I watched that thing 100x over. So when that scene played. It had 1000% of my attention. I instantly just sat to the edge of my seat. Covered my mouth. And watched. It was just as the trailer showed. Watching this strong, badass woman dominate with ice was almost too much to handle. Then Nokk shows up and literally makes me shiver in my seat. His entrance was beyond anything we'd seen in the movie. The sounds he makes, the pure look of him. It was so much to take in. Then the fight with him is so intense I was nearly biting the skin off my fingers. And all of that is only 10% of the emotion that Show Yourself gave me.
It’s hard to remember just exactly the feelings I had when this song was playing. It just took me by storm. I couldn’t comprehend how much I was enjoying this sequence. The best I can remember is at the end when my friends asked, “What was your favorite song??” and I said “Well due to bias I have to say Into the Unknown, but that... what was it- Show Yourself song, wow. That was one of the greatest things I’ve ever seen.” I remember it stuck with me SOOO much. It was the first song I downloaded on Spotify and had it on repeat all week. During that week, I was already planning on seeing the movie again, but I could NOT wait to see Show Yourself again, so I went on an illegal cam site just to watch it once. I had to; I couldn’t live another second not watching Show Yourself. The visuals I could talk about all day. Ahtohallan is GORGEOUS. And the song is just so fun. The nice slow build-up, letting her hair down <3, then when it kicks into the second verse and she’s running down that hall then starts sliding; ah! It’s so good! It’s visually enjoyable. My favorite part of the whole movie (still true today): When she says “Here I am, I’ve come so far!” when the music stops for a second and the piano is going fast, and she lifts all those ice pillars. WOW. It’s just so good! The music, the visuals, the message, the everything! I LOVE it.
And that, ladies and gentlemen, was how I felt after my first viewing.
But what about the other 57 theatrical viewings?

Frozen 2 Obsession Begins

I watched Frozen 2 again the following weekend because my mom came into town and I really wanted to watch it with her. It was even better a second time, and later that night I wrote a 7,000-word review on the movie. Earlier that day I bought a Water Nokk Pop Funko at a nearby store. I’m not a huge fan of Funkos, the only ones I had were 3 Kylo Rens because I loved Star Wars Force Awakens so much, but Funkos just weren’t my thing. But this 6” Nokk figure, oh I needed this haha.
Then something dangerous happened. Regal Unlimited. A pass that gets you unlimited free movies. They were having a black Friday sale, so the yearly pass was $60 off, and my mom thought, “Why don’t I buy it as an early Christmas present?” So I got it.
And that’s where it all went wrong…
The next weekend, I had just gotten off work, I was at school doing some work, and I thought, “Eh. It’s 7 o'clock, I can see the movie for free, why not go see it? Just ‘cause I can. Test out the pass.” So I went to see Frozen 2 for the third time, all by myself. Fortunately-unfortunate, I had this exact thought the next day. Then, I found all these different ways to see the movie. So I bought 3 Frozen 2 tickets for that Tuesday. IMAX, 4DX, and standard. And I watched the movie 3 times that day, putting me at 7 viewings. Keep in mind, the ONLY movies I’ve seen more than once in a theater was Star Wars Force Awakens (2 times), and Into the Spider-Verse (5 times). People thought I was crazy seeing Spider-Man that many times. Now look at me. 2 weeks in and I’ve already seen it 7 times! But it didn’t stop there, of course.
I then saw it again the next day with a friend in 3D. 8 theatrical viewings and I’ve already seen it in 4 different formats. Surely it can’t get worse than this.
Oops, I watched it again by myself (I can’t remember what triggered that viewing), then for the 10th time at an AMC with a friend. Well. This is happening. And I knew I was going to see it again when I went back home for Winter Break, at least twice! And I’d HAVE to see it at least once more after the break so…
I watched it 3 times over Winter Break. With 1 friend, then a group of friends, then another friend, putting me at 13 viewings by the end of 2019. I worked on making a game over the break and was just listening to the entire soundtrack (outtakes, instrumentals, scores and all) on repeat. So for 50 total hours, I just had that music on repeat.
The movies weren’t the only parts of this adventure mind you. I watched the shorts for the first time and adored them, then… A little collection started…
So first off, I bought the Frozen book “Forest of Shadows” and read it in literally less than 20 hours. I read it on my flight back home and during the drive. It was a fun little adventure. I don’t think I could ever read a 400-page book that fast again…
Remember when I got that Nokk? Yeah, my mom mistook something I said for me wanting another one, so for Christmas, she got me the Elsa Funko, along with the Frozen 2 artbook I asked for. So by the time I was done with Christmas break, I already had a Frozen collection going. I had the book, the 2 Pops, the Artbook, a Blu Ray of Frozen I bought while I was home, and the soundtrack to Frozen 2 because I like to collect CDs. And, where the obsession starts truly starts: I bought every Elsa Funko (Frozen 2 only), and they were all waiting for me when I got back to my apartment after Winter Break. So we had a pretty nice collection going.

Frozen 2 Obsession Continues

2020 starts off strong when I come back to my apartment to 5 Elsa Funkos. Now, instead of just watching Frozen constantly, we were now building a collection. How fun… I only planned to watch the movie one more time, it’s been out for almost 2 months so why would it still be playing in theaters? Well…
People got word of how much I’ve seen the movie and they wanted to see it with me. So I went a lot of times with different groups of friends. And before I knew it, I was at 20 viewings. What??? Insane! Well I’m done here – oh... There’s a sing-along version? Well. Okay we have to see it. 21 we’re done. But then, my buddy kept wanting to watch it, so we went over and over and over and over again. I eventually started going by myself. I even had whole theaters to myself sometimes haha. You bet I was singing my heart out to those songs. I started playing fun games during these showings. I counted how many times Elsa blinks. Then how many times Anna blinks. That sounds insane, but what else is someone going to do on their 25th and 27th viewings of the same movie? It’s not that crazy… Right...? (Elsa 797, Anna, 933).
There were other things I did during some viewings. There were 3 times where I recorded the time of the movie and made time stamps of all the music and some events. I counted the number of sounds Sven makes (103). The number of times Anna and Elsas names are said (32 and 44). The number of times Elsa uses her magic (130). And some other little games I did that I either didn’t record or quite remember. My favorite thing with my buddy is during the scene where Anna and Elsa are in their bedroom, there’s a moment where the score “Sisters” play, and every time it starts we look at each other and say “Sisters” haha. But now I saw “15:21” because that’s the time-stamp of that moment. This movie is just numbers to me now…
During this time, the Funko collection was growing RAPIDLY. Because what started as “I need all the Elsa Pops!” turned into “I need all the Elsa and Annas!” which turned into “I need all the Frozen 2 pops!” which inevitably turned into “I need all the Frozen 2 AND Frozen pop!” This was the side-quest I went on while watching the movie. I also gathered other little collectibles so my little “Frozen Shrine” wasn’t just Funko. I also read the Twisted Tale “Conceal Don’t Feel” and the book “Frozen Heart” at the same time. It was a nice little side journey of reading extra Frozen material while on this movie adventure. Along with the collecting, it really added to the experience.
One special viewing: after my 18th viewing, this guy at the theater gave me these HUGE and amazing Frozen posters from that theater. He said, “I can’t think of anyone more deserving of it than you.” That melted my heart! Thank you so much! (I eventually got a total of 5 posters from this guy!!!).
It was kind of crazy how long the movie was in theaters. I'd keep checking showtimes and it would only go until that Thursday or so, and I'd say "Surely this is the last week." But they just kept coming. Week after week there'd be more showings at all the nearby theaters. It was insane! Eventually, my local theater dropping Frozen 2, so I went to a LOT of different theaters (14 to be exact). I drove to theaters 20 miles away, one that was 30, and some that were 40+ miles away. Drove upwards to 2 hours just to go to a theater that was playing it (twice). Insane? Yes. Do I care? Nope.
This obsessive adventure was actually a lot of fun! Going out every other day to go watch Frozen, to many different theaters, all while collecting these Funkos and other knickknacks. Reading the books was a lot of fun as well! The way I read them mostly was late at night. I’d turn on this bright Nokk light I have and read to the Frozen Score. It helped create a magical atmosphere! I even found little Frozen comics and did the same thing. All these little things that just added to the adventure!
I was also really focused on the sales of the movie. I checked every single day “Best Selling Animated Movie of all time” just to see if it could top Frozen. When it did, I was thrilled! And eventually, I started checking “Best Selling Movie of All Time” and was even more thrilled when it beat an AVENGERS movie and put itself into the #10 spot!
Even after the movie released on Digital on February 10th (I was already at 38 viewings at this point), that didn’t slow me down at all. I mean I pre-ordered the Digital version of course, but still went to the theaters haha! I also pre-ordered a Limited Collector’s Edition Blu Ray. Can’t wait to get that! (Only 1000 copies made)
Then my buddy did something dangerous…. “I’m trying to catch up to you!” Oh-ho-ho-ho. No. No you are not! So I went in secrecy by myself so I could crank up my numbers. This fool went 5 times in ONE day to try to reach me. Did he? No. Hahahaha. (He ended with 31 viewings. Still wild). Especially near the end when I did the same thing and watched the movie 5 times in 1 day... On February 17th, when I went up to the ticket stand and said, “I’d like a ticket for every Frozen 2 showing today” and the lady laughs and say “Alright!” and hands me one ticket. Where I follow up with “One ticket?” and she said, “Oh did you want 2?” and I said “I want. Every. Showing.” and she said, “OH YOU’RE SERIOUS????” Yes. Yes, I am. I watched the movie 4 times at that theater, then drove 20 miles to catch it at the next theater, making it my 50th viewing.
I seriously have no idea how I had the time to do all this. I’m a very very busy college student. I work over the weekends. And I’m super involved with school. No clue how I fit all the crazy Frozen stuff in there. But it happened.
And sure, I can say “Yeah I just saw it that many times for the number, for the reactions.” And while that isn’t a total lie, it’s not like I dread going to the theater. I enjoyed watching that movie every single time, I wouldn’t have done it if I didn’t. I really enjoyed the movie every time. Sure there were some down times where I thought oh maybe I should be doing something else, something productive, or the time I saw it so many times in one day and thought “is this worth it?” but you know what, it was worth it, because every time I saw that movie I knew I was just growing this passion that would turn into something great. I don’t know what yet, but I know it will. I love this movie, and if I could see it another 50 times in theaters, I would. Absolutely.
I guess by now the age-old question is: Why? Why would I keep watching the same movie over and over and over again? The answer is quite simple:
Because I can. Moving on.

The Frozen Journey Never Ends

Well. February 19th. I was at 50. I told myself I couldn’t do it. Once I hit 31 viewings, I said, “Let’s go to 50!” But school was getting in the way. But I still somehow did it (and got straight A’s I might add). I finished off this journey with my 51st viewing, watching it with the same group I watched it with the first time, (minus 1 because he couldn’t make it, unfortunately), exactly 3 months after our first viewing.
I posted about my 50 viewings on Twitter and Kristen Andersen-Lopez replied “You win!” on it. Pretty neat!
Around that time is also when I got my last Funko, completing the Every Frozen/Frozen 2 Funko collection. I created an Excel spreadsheet to record stats on every viewing, along with marking the prices of every Frozen item I have so I can get the total value of my collection.
50 Frozen viewings. Every SINGLE Frozen/Frozen2 Funko. What more was there to do? A Broadway Musical??? Okay! I found out about this musical sometime late 2019, and my buddy and I booked front row VIP tickets. What a better way to end this adventure? We saw it on Tuesday, February 25th. It. Was. Amazing. Honestly, this was a perfect end to the adventure. The Broadway felt like the perfect culmination of all things Frozen and touched me in the warmest spot in my heart. The way the show opens with Vuelie, the INSANE live performance of Let It Go, and that beautiful conclusion of Let It Go revised. It was everything this 20-year-old Male needed from Frozen. It damn near hit me harder than the first time I watched Frozen 2, if not harder… After a while of listening to the soundtrack, I confidently can say I prefer it over the actual movie soundtracks. It’s just so… amazing…
(also I spent $765 on merch before the show even started… Oops).
The only thing left was to host Frozen Friday at my school on February 28th. For Spirit Week I was running an event for my club “Disney Movie Night” and we were watching Frozen, the shorts, and Frozen 2 back to back. I dressed up in my Musical merch and had a fantastic movie night with my peers!
(and then my buddy and I went to see the Musical again the next night. Oops).
But then another thing happened… Why stop at 51? I told myself I was done. I’d gone to the Broadway, hosted a movie night, I’ve done all the things. But does this Frozen 2 Theatrical Adventure really ever end? Near the beginning of the whole COVID-19 outbreak, I had a lot of free time and told myself, why not go for 60? Let’s just do it. It’s “been a while” since I’ve done my theaters runs, so let’s do it! I went to the only theater showing F2 about once a day (35 min drive there and back each time). My last showing I actually cut it really close, I was working and got off 20 minutes before the show started, but the theater was 35 mins away. I walked in just as Iduna started her song, whew. This theater was actually really funny because I saw it, then came back the next day and the same guy was working and said: "So you liked it that much, eh?" And I said "Yeah... Ha, uh. Yeah. This is.. Actually my.. Uh... 57th time watching this movie..." And he just looks at me and says "... Well, that's a number." Hahaha!
An unfortunate scenario happened. With the COVID-19 situation getting worse, the theater I was going to shut down, and I was stuck at 58. I was on the road to 60, it was perfectly timed between work and school, but I lost the chance. I guess it’s okay. Safety over me seeing the movie 2 more times… Right?
And that’s where our adventure truly ends, March 14th, 2020. The Theatrical adventure I should say because Frozen is never going to end for me at this point. It’s incredible how quickly this franchise became a part of my life because of 2 coincidences (getting the Regal Unlimited and that first Funko… Thanks mom…). But nonetheless… What an adventure this has been. (and it’s only been 3 ½ months!)

The After Effects of Frozen 2

I believe this entire journey of watching Frozen 2 has led up to this one big moment: Reciting the entire movie by heart. One day at work, we were all bored, someone mentioned Frozen and that lead to me mentioning I can recite the whole movie. My manager asked me to do it, so we sat down and I recited the entire movie from memory. I flubbed like 2 or 3 times (flub as in I had to stop and think about what the next line was) but needless to say, my coworkers were kind of in awe (kind of shocked myself as well). Some mocked me a bit but ya know that’s okay.
My 60th viewing of Frozen 2 (2nd outside of theaters) was the first time I watched Frozen 2 in the comfort of my own bed. April 1st, 2019, I watched it on my 55” 4K TV and holy wow it was so beautiful. Everything seemed to pop more and was clearer than a theater screen, though the darks seemed extremely dark on my TV. But I gotta say, it’s really weird not watching this movie in a theater. I didn’t feel too different during Frozen Friday because it still felt like a big showing with a lot of people like a theater. It was odd being all alone in my bed, all cozy with my own rules. It honestly made me kind of sad because I miss that cinema experience already. But nonetheless, I still enjoyed watching it at home. It’d been 18 days since I’d see the movie last (the longest I’ve gone without seeing it, can ya believe it?), and even that short amount of time was enough for me to refresh and fully enjoy this movie to its full capacity!
I also joined this Frozen Discord from Reddit, and from what I’ve gathered it’s basically a cult, so… No turning back now. But in all honesty, this group of people is actually pretty great. It’s nice to be able to just expel all of my Frozen energy and have others relate and talk about it. I’m glad I found this group because they really are just a wholesome bunch, and it’s a great outlet from life. (if the people from that group are reading this; Hi guys!)

The Future of Frozen

Every fairy tale comes to an end. Fortunately, I am not living in a fairy tale, and my journey is far from over. This era of watching Frozen 2 consecutively and collecting all this stuff in rapid succession may be at its end, but there is far more to be done.
Inspirations:
Frozen, as told, has been a major part of my life for most of my life, even hidden in the shadows, and these last 4 months have been wild. Frozen has already inspired so much in me. I started practicing Piano because of Frozen. I started my 2nd club at school because of Frozen. I’m creating a game in school that’s inspired by Frozen and it’s going really, really well. I’ve started reading again and planned to read 25 books this year because of Frozen. I have future plans and projects that I’m excited to do, all because Frozen has inspired them.
Trips:
I saw my first Broadway musical because of Frozen. I have a trip booked for Disneyland with some friends because Frozen motivated me to do so. My buddy and I have a planned tour of Walt Disney Animation Studios, because of Frozen. And finally, I’m booking a 3-day trip to NYC all by myself, because of – you get the point. This NYC trip was planned because I wanted to see the Broadway show again! (of course, these trips are all postponed because of COVID-19…).
Frozen held a special place of nostalgia in my heart. Now it holds a powerful meaning in my life. My entire life has shifted because of Frozen. Would all of that stuff stated above have happened without Frozen? Maybe? But the fact Frozen touched me so much it caused all these things to happen, is beyond words I can put on this page. Frozen 2 wasn't life-changing in the sense I became a different person, but it was life-changing in that it put my life on a different path and creating new opportunities.
It also helps that all of this Frozen Adventure happened during a very successful part of my life. I’m succeeding very well in my life and building a great path for my future, all while working hard to create great opportunities and adventures. Frozen has kind of been a backdrop for a very, very successful time of my life, so when I think back to this Frozen era, it’ll be the same time I was setting the seeds of my future.
People give me strange looks, seeing a 20-year-old male so obsessed with Frozen. I just turn the other cheek, because Frozen makes me happy and it begins to evolve me into a better person. Who cares if I have an unhealthy obsession, I’m still successful financially and academically, so what’s the problem with having a Disney movie addiction? Y’all just haters.
Frozen has cemented itself into the most special place in my heart. I love Frozen and will continue to for the rest of my life.
Here’s to going into the unknown!

Closing Thanks

Because of how much Frozen has become to me, I need to give a few thanks:
Thank you, Jennifer Lee and Chris Buck, for creating this franchise. For creating a movie so powerful and inspiring to so many in the world, and so successful it warranted to have first-ever true Disney theatrical sequel. Thank you for everything you’ve put into this movie. You truly created Disney’s prodigy.
Thank you, Kristen-Andersen Lopez and Robert Lopez, for creating soundtracks unlike any other. Let It Go (as annoying as it has become to many), will forever stand in my opinion as the most powerful Disney song of all time. For what it is and what it did to society. And the simple fact you were able to create a sequel soundtrack that puts the original Frozen soundtrack to shame. You two created some amazing pieces. (and thank you so so so so so much for Show Yourself. Seriously. Oh my lord).
Thank you Idina Menzel, Kristen Bell, Josh Gad, and Johnathon Groff (and all of the other voice actors) for putting in your all to make these characters what they are. The casting for them is perfect and I wouldn’t want it any other way.
Thank you to all the artists, animators, techs, and every single person who worked on these movies to bring them to life. Frozen 2 at this moment is the most beautifully crafted animation I’ve ever seen in my LIFE. I cannot begin to understand how much time, effort and passion went into creating this masterpiece.
Thank you to those I saw in the Broadway show. Being able to do what you do so many times a week, sometimes twice a day is truly incredible. Biggest applause goes to Caroline Bowman for displaying an AMAZING Elsa, and Berklea Going for playing the most perfect epitome of Anna I could’ve imagined (unfortunate I couldn’t see Caroline Innerbichler because there were understudies for Anna the two times I saw, but those who played Anna were still fantastic!). But still a huge shout out to the entire cast for such a performance. I can’t wait to see the NYC cast.
Finally, thank you to all of those who went on this adventure with me, and all the fans of Frozen for helping make it what it is today.

Let the sun shine on.


[link to collection as of 2/29/2020]
[link to Funkos]
[link to proof of tickets]
[link to Frozen Friday]
(If you took the time to read all this, just know I greatly appreciate you)
submitted by b_dog6752 to Frozen [link] [comments]

The stars of ITV2’s surprise 2013 hit – including B*Witched and Atomic Kitten – have joined forces for this one, which sees them performing that Wizzard song you’re guaranteed to hear at 16 December 2013 at 2:13pm there have been some strong contenders in the race for Christmas Number One. Betting has now closed on who will get to the top spot. The race for the 2017 Christmas Number One is heating up and this year there is more chance of a Christmas song landing the top spot than any other year, since 2012.. As we approach the festive season this time around, there are five Christmas songs in the top 25, from the latest chart announcement on 8th December. Christmas Number One 2015 Betting. X Factor winner Louisa Johnson is the value bet to be top the charts according to Neil Monnery on Betfair Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and All Number 1s are special, but the festive chart-topper is the ultimate prize. Let's look back at every Official Christmas Number 1 single in the UK.

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