Over the next few months, eplate2
and myself will be conducting 30+ mock drafts, with an equal amount of different professionals around the dynasty industry. The data from these mocks will then be aggregated and weighted based on recency (post-draft vs pre-draft for example). The result will be an "expert ADP." These mocks will all be available over on our site
, and here's the gist:
Conventional ADP is a nice enough reference point to see where the general public stands on player, but the problem is you aren't the general public
. In fact, if you frequent this sub I'd bet you are much better than the general public at dynasty football, this place is an incredible resource. I've used this sub for data and hot takes for years, I'm never leaving. And let's be real, do we really
want the general public influencing our decisions? Probably not. The Expert ADP
project is meant to give you an answer to where experts
think players should
go, cutting out that pesky "advice" from your friend Bob who lives in his mom's basement. Each mock will be 6 rounds of 12 slots, which is deep enough to get a feel for even the late round fliers, and should result in a thorough ADP through around 80 total rookies.
We will definitely host a few mocks via this sub, and we're open to bringing on any users you guys feel fit the "expert" bill. Ping me. For now though, here's the first of the series with Addison Hayes
. (For the sake formatting ease, and of my sanity, I've included the first two rounds on here—the full 6-round mock is linked at the bottom
). We're conducting one tomorrow with the head writer from Gridiron Experts, as well as one with the head rookie expert for Reality Sports Online, with more schedule later in the week.
As this progresses there will be more names involved in each mock, for this one—it's just the three of us.
- (Mr_Football) - Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State - https://media.giphy.com/media/mrn71bpe35j6U/giphy.gif
- (eplate2) - Derrius Guice, RB, LSU - In my opinion, easily the next best back in the draft after Barkley. With his speed, strength and pass catching ability, there’s little question that Guice will make an immediate impact at the next level and should have even more value in PPR leagues.
- (Addison) - Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia - Chubb has solidified himself as the 1.03 in all rookie formats after his performance at the Combine. If it wasn’t for a world-record day from Saquon Barkley, Chubb would have been the best running back this past weekend. Any questions about his knee or pass-catching abilities were quickly answered and he will be a force in the NFL on any team.
- (Mr_Football) - Ronald Jones, RB, USC - Unfortunately came up limp during his 40 run and the 4.66 time will scare away the lazy dynasty owner. Don’t fret. He’s arguably the most explosive back in this class outside of Barkley, is a legit home-run threat on every touch and should be a solid asset wherever he lands come NFL draft day.
- (eplate2) - Rashad Penny, RB San Diego State - One of my personal favorite players in the entire class, Penny shows the ability to do it all as a running back. He struggles in pass blocking but if he can hone this skill at the next level, I am confident he will be an every down player who can kill teams on the ground or through the air.
- (Addison) - DJ Moore, WR, Maryland - Another Combine extraordinaire, Moore has risen my rankings to WR1 in this 2018 class. He has the potential to be the first WR off the board in April and will be utilized as such. Whether he goes to Chicago or San Francisco or any other team in the top-10, I want Moore on my dynasty team.
- (Mr_Football) - Sony Michel, RB, Georgia - Draft Twitter post-CFB Playoffs: “Sony Michel is the next Alvin Kamara! He’s better than Nick Chubb!” Draft Twitter post-Combine: “Sony Michel isn’t the next alvin Kamara! Nick Chubb is better!” Just watch his tape, snag him anywhere from 3-7 in your rookie drafts depending on how you feel, and be content. Michel has a good chance to be a legitimate three-down back, let’s not overreact.
- (eplate2) - Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU - In a class of average receivers, Sutton continues to remain my favorite of the group. He’s long and proved he brings speed to the table this past weekend at the combine. The big question is “does he have the ability to get open?” but I think his route running will improve with solid coaching. He’s a clear cut WR2 depending on who drafts him in April.
- (Addison) - Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama - After Sutton was sniped one pick before me, I decided to simply go BPA here in the late first. Ridley can still be a top-10 pick in the NFL draft and I think his value will largely depend on his landing spot. He is a talented wide receiver that may need a WR2 role to begin his career that develops into a larger WR1 role.
- (Mr_Football) - Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon - A fantastic zone rusher and who can shrug off contact at any point, Freeman could jump 3-4 spots on my board if he goes to the right scheme. He could fall equally as far if he ends up in the wrong one (Power). He’s not going to beat you catching balls twenty yards down the field or improvising in the open field, but as long as the blocks are there or the screen pass is well placed—he’ll burn you. Landing spot and draft caliber will be crucial.
- (eplate2) - Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State - Second year in a row where the TE class is off the charts good and right now, Goedert remains my favorite over Gesicki. His fantastic hands that goes along with his tremendous strength should get him on the field more often than most. It’s time to stop sleeping on rookie tight ends.
- (Addison) - Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn - I am a fan of Johnson and his game and I saw a big tier break in running backs after him. Mr_Football and eplate2 want to question his health, but I don’t think that should stop anyone from grabbing Johnson here at the back of the first. He may be a second-day steal for any team that grabs him and could be this year’s Kareem Hunt.
- (Addison) - Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M - Everybody hates me for saying one bad tweet about James Washington, but that’s ok because Eric took ESB after me anyway. Between Kirk and Washington, I would rather have Kirk who is more athletic and better vertical threat than Washington, in my opinion. He flew under the radar before he ran a 4.47 at the Combine. I like Kirk’s game and he potential on any NFL team.
- (Eric) - Easy St. Brown, WR Notre Dame - I had Brown as my #1 WR the first week after the season and his stock continues to remain high, but I have lowered him to the 2nd round because of some questions about disappearing in the offensive scheme. I think his ceiling though, could be the highest of any other receiver in the class as he has tremendous size and speed and he’s also incredibly smart.
- (Ronnie) - Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State - While he didn’t do anything at the combine that shocked those of us who already knew him, he certainly made a name for himself in the general public. He’s indecisive on tape, and runs too upright for me to stamp him a sure fire three down back, but he can do a little bit of everything. Gets a bump in kick-return leagues.
- (Addison) - James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State - Ok ok, BPA here tells me Washington has now become a value at 2.04. If Washington becomes the player a lot of industry people believe he can be, I just got the steal of the draft. I have a lot of questions still surrounding his game but in the mid-2nd I will take those risks.
- (Eric) - John Kelly, RB, Tennessee - Kelly comes from the same system that manufactured Kamara and his skill set reminds me a lot of Kamara as well. He may not be quite as slippery but he was super productive despite playing for the worst passing offense in the NCAA. If he lands on a team with a solid offensive line and a need for a 3rd down back, Kelly could have sleeper written all over him.
- (Ronnie) - Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State - Electric, physical, agile, aggressive, good hands, good size. Gallup is a YAC monster than can beat you in traffic just as well as he can on a back-shoulder fade. If he can fix his flexibility on the line he could be the WR steal of this class. I think there’s real potential he slips into the early second/late first if a GM likes him enough. He’s a player I’ll be investing a lot of shares in.
- (Addison) - Mike Gesicki, TE, THE Pennsylvania State University - Am I a Penn State homer? Sure, but this is Mike Gesicki we are talking about. THE TIGHT END ONE IN THIS CLASS. Did you see his Combine?!?!?!? A 99th percentile tight end and I got him at 2.07! Fanboy out mic drop
- (Eric) - Nyheim Hines, RB, NC State - A pure track star with tremendous physical gifts, Hines has the ability to be great. He needs to be more patient and watch as holes develop and also follow blockers better but these are skills that can be learned in the NFL. His athleticism is intriguing and he can be a great value here at the end of the 2nd round.
- (Ronnie) - Auden Tate, WR, Florida State - Matt Waldman let it slip on the FantasyPros podcast a couple weeks ago that Tate was his WR1 in this class. I’m sure a garbage 40 time will change that, and I never agreed anyway—but let’s put it this way. He’s big, strong, physical, a good route runner and has great hands, and a great first step. He’s just slow.
- (Addison) - Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma - I can see Baker going higher than this is a lot of rookie drafts, but I do believe this is about the spot for the first QB off the board in 1QB leagues. Baker has been my QB1 for a few months now and even if he goes to Cleveland I will take a day-one starting quarterback at the backend of the second all day.
- (Eric) - Simmie Cobbs Jr., WR, Indiana - Another WR with great upside, though his combine didn’t help his case, he displays some tremendous skills in game. He knows how to go up and make the play over defensive backs and although his route running leaves a lot to be desired, he’s a big bodied receiver who can win the 50/50 ball. Will need to land on a team that can hone his skills but this is a great spot for Cobbs.
- (Ronnie) - Dante Pettis, WR, Washington - Pettis has soft hands, fantastic ball skills and one of the best releases in this class. He runs a full route tree, has incredible hip control and as a bonus he broke records as a kick and punt returner. Couple that with 22 receiving TDs over the past two seasons and I’m fine ignoring the fact that he’s a little on the light end. Side note: You’ll be able to get him later than this in your drafts.
Take the Saints +4 over the Seahawks and more picks for Week 3. The post NFL Betting Advice: How to Pick Week 3 Games appeared first on Stadium. NFL Draft betting is a strange market to handicap when compared to the NFL action on the field. That just means you need a sharp betting strategy when it comes to navigating all the mock drafts and getting the best of the NFL Draft props. Here are some simple tips for betting the NFL Draft odds. Tip No. 1: Inside info All Draft Tools Draft Software Draft Software – Mac Custom Rankings Rankings + Outlooks Cheat Sheets Auction Values Projections Mock Draft Sleepers ADP Report Advice & Draft Strategy Ask An Expert Team Previews NFL Magazine That just means you need a sharp betting strategy when it comes to navigating all the mock drafts and getting the best of the NFL Draft props. Here are some simple tips for betting the NFL Draft odds. But this article isn’t betting advice, but rather utilizing that information to formulate an NFL 2020 Mock Draft based on betting market odds. The rules of this Mock Draft are simple: No Trading