Bovada - Cheating honest people out of money Review 607496
Bovada - Cheating honest people out of money Review 607496
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Poker | Bovada - Bovada.com: Online Sports Betting, Casino
I want to change...I need to change (31 M, down $123k)
I'm a 31 year old male and posting in this subreddit because I really want to change my life... I have been playing poker since watching a World Series of Poker event on ESPN 15 years ago. In the last 12-13 years, I logged tons of hours on online poker. I started to make $50 deposits, but had trouble controlling my tilt when I would get a bad beat, dump off the rest of the deposit. I would self-exclude for a few months to a year because I wanted to stop making deposits and tilting money away. After the self-exclusion, I would start playing again and fall into the same pattern. In the last 3 years, the deposit value went up, I started to make $200-$1k deposits to try to chase my losses. I also started to make sportsbook bets, because Bovada has that convenient option to place bets on sports, while I was playing poker. That didn't go well either, I was placing ridiculous bets, thinking if I could just win it all back and break even, that I can break this bad habit and move on with life. Looks like that won't happen, because everytime I deposit and tell myself I can manage my bankroll, to just build it up without tilting, I end up tilting it away eventually. Overall, I'm down around $123k, ($80k of those losses coming in the last 12 months). I work in IT and have a 6-figure salary and have no debt, so I'll be okay with upcoming bills, but thoughts of what I could've done with that $123k over the years is bothering me so much. I went through my savings. when I was debating on starting to withdraw from my retirement accounts is when I knew this wasn't a good path that I'm heading towards. I'm also pissed at myself for all the time I wasted so I can play online poker...time that could've been spent improving myself and building relationships with family/friends. I haven't played online poker for 3 days, and also self-excluded myself from Bovada from play/deposit for 30 days. (I'm going to send an email to them to day to self-exclude permanently, I just don't want to play anymore, I'll keep losing I know it...). It was tough waking up this morning as these thoughts were spinning in my head, which is why I'm sharing my story here. Any advice/thoughts/quotes/meaningful words would be greatly appreciated as I start this path to recovery.
Feel like I should call out Bovada's online live dealer (Possible Scam)
What's up to this subreddit, I've never posted on reddit before but just wanna post to maybe help some people out. I was playing live blackjack on the site Bovada, after coming up over two grand on the site craziness ensued. The next day I log on to play I start having weird things happening during the live game, for example dealer is showing a 10, I have a 19, guy next to me with like base bet $15 surrenders a 12 throwing his money away, dealer ends up having a 4 on the under card then gets a 7 to beat the whole table. This happened twice, and not only that I started experiencing people splitting 20's against a 19, staying on like 13's against dealer showing a 10, which all cases dealer didn't have a winning card under but ended up getting one because of the players stupidity. Not saying they're guaranteed bots but this all happened in the span of two hours on multiple tables. Not mad about losing as I was playing more to kill time, but like at least give me bad beats instead of other players purposefully f'ing up the whole table. Anyways be careful out there, just my experience :).
Here’s the situation TL;DR: got fucked by a full house to trips, look @ last paragraph I’m in my mid 20s and have been in n out of poker phases since I was 18. Used to be a noob, but i feel like I’ve been getting better. I got back in the seen full time in ~September and I recently went to Nevada this past weekend to play Poker with some friends with the intention of winning some big money. I’ve played in a casino when I was 18 a couple times and got some beginners luck but nothing big to no avail. (Backstory) I’ve been playing weekly low stakes tourneys and cash games with some neighborhood friends who I feel like aren’t the best since I started this new job and I usually make around $50-60 every week with a few exceptions since September. I’ve tried microplaying on Bovada but I always seem to end up on the downside there losing ~20 every so often. A lot of the hands seem pretty iffy but I usually just end up losing patience and not playing as well as I do live. I wanted to Verify my online bovada is rigged conspiracy and put my skills to test at an in person casino. Think of it as an existencial poker crisis. So I went with some friends to Laughlin and Wah La the poker room of Riverside Resort is buzzin with action on an electric Saturday night. Okay here’s where the story heats up: I initially sign up for a 1/2 no limit 100 min buy in but get placed in a 2/6 limit 9 player game since I wouldn’t have to wait. I end up getting a shit ton of free drinks, buy in for 100 and cash out 200 profit after ~3 hours, never moving tables. Won’t go into detail about my hands but I was rollin. Next day after, before my friends and I leave we go back to Riverside and I put 200 (my profit) in on a 1/2 no limit which I get to play this time. Had full intentions of using same strategy as I had the day before knowing I had to be cognizant of playing heftty hands. 3rd hand in, I get A10 suited and I noticed these old goons have $500 stacks are betting big. I get raised $10 pre flop after I’m $2 in BB and I call. Flop comes out Ad 2s Jc, Villian bets $30, I call. Turn comes out Ace of hearts (Ah) Villian bets $60, I raise him $100, he calls me all in. Guess what he flips over. God damn pocket Js. Right when I turn over my A10, I hear oooh bad beat. River is a 5 doesn’t even fucking matter. I shamefully get up, mumble nice hand while he undermines my whole existence and I tell my friends at the roulette table, let’s dip. Oh well at least got free drinks but like still what the fuck man. Did I play that hand terribly, or was I just on the wrong side of Fuckeryville? All the guys there seemed like randoms so I don’t think they were just trying to get me out. Lmk what you guys think and I hope you enjoyed the read.
Been catching a rash of bad beats on Bovada. Could be a terrible player, but considering 20+ years experience, I am compelled to ask if anyone else experiences this. Tons of river cards making straights, flushes and boats, almost always beating whatever I was betting. Anyone else?
Quick call is indicative of a draw I think. Third spade just came out so he could have one of his own, and there's the chance he has an 8 that picked up an open ender. He could also have some 9s that turned top pair.
Definitely a mistake in hindsight. This is a bad board for my range but I figured I could get some value from overpairs like TT JJ QQ (since many people actually won't 3bet QQ on Bovada/Ignition), and floats that hit their pairs on the turn or river.
V snap shoves for $24.50 effective
Can't really put him on a hand that beats me besides slow-played flushes and sets (which I would expect him to raise on the turn since I am showing a lot of strength) or 98 since that is open-ended on the flop and hits top pair on the turn. I don't think T8 calls flop especially not with another player behind. I also do not have the As which he could definitely call the turn with - he may call flop with overcards and then pick up the flush draw on the turn.
I’ve been a live poker player my whole life I’ve always been kinda against online poker but recently got into it because of some bitcoin that I bought 2 years ago that I haven’t used. So I deposited my bitcoin on bovada mainly for sport bets but seeing as how football season is over I’ve decided to try my luck with Hold em. Now either it’s rigged or I maybe the most unlucky person imaginable. Bad beat central! AK suited loses to 49 not suited every time! And what makes me think it’s rigged is they call a high bet on the turn and get the 1 card they need on the river (usually they catch a straight or a flush) EVERY FUCKING TIME! I know that online hold em is quicker so more hands come out which makes the impossible happen but it’s getting the the point of ridiculousness. It makes me think that people can see my hand. I know it’s impossible to bluff an idiot so I’ve been trying to be patient but anytime I catch a high pair or even a 2 pair I lose on the river to someone who called a $50 bet chasing a gut shot 8 for the straight! Anyone else have problems with bovada or am I just unlucky?!
Halfway through the season anyone could use a break, and for those guys in the top of the rankings who’ve earned it, that break is the grasscourt season. Short volleys, a boost for everyone’s serving, appreciative crowds, and exhibition events that feature about the same effort level as the real tour events. With the awe-inspiring grind of the clay tour behind them, the tour’s finest will head to Wimbledon this week for a chance at making history. At this vaunted venue, even 1 match can be talked about for years and with the speed of the grass, upsets are never out of the question. Below are my thoughts about the 1st round of the men’s division. Djokovic Kohlschreiber : Kohl managed to nab a win against Novak earlier this season in Indian Wells on a slow hardcourt. A couple weeks later he managed to steal a set in Monte Carlo on clay. The progression from favorable conditions to difficult ones continues, and while Kohl is the definition of a professional on the tour, this is one way traffic. I had a chance to watch some of Novak’s exhibition matches this past week, and while the best takeaway was how capable Shapovalov and Garin are on the swift stuff, Novak looked not only engaged but happy to be in contested rallies. If you watch a lot of great champions they are actually at their most engaged and highest level when they are being pressed, and this is revealing of how difficult it is to play at peak level against inferior opponents. Kohl’s W against Novak will keep his attention on the match, and where he struggled a bit in his comeback Novak’s serving game is nearing top level again (he has really been hitting his spots nicely). Novak is my pre-tournament pick for the title here, and I don’t think he drops a set here. Novak in 3. Kudla Jaziri : Kudla has had a Mischa Zverev like start to 2019. He had to go through qualifying in some events and head to the challenger in Surbiton, but managed to string together some 7 wins through this grass season. Arguably his best surface, he has a great first round draw here in Jaziri, who has been struggling with injury and playing not only sparsely, but on clay at that. Two clay challengers and early exits have been on the menu, and rumblings of dealing with injuries lend to the idea that he probably is not at his peak for Wimbledon but of course cannot afford to pass up 1st rd points and pay in a major. With a big serve and a big forehand, Jaziri is a threat in any set of tennis, but these players are trending in opposite directions. Kudla in 4 at most. Gulbis Mayer : Although this matchup sits in the Novak section, this is a tidy little spot for someone to steal some very important ranking points with the winner likely facing Hurkacz where they won’t be favored but will certainly have a chance. Gulbis has had 3 subpar losses to start his grass season, and Mayer hasn’t fared much better. The time Mayer tends to need to produce his groundstrokes will hurt him on the grass, and injury rumblings before the French Open coupled with his lack of activity make me think this is a great chance for Gulbis to steal a match and remain relevant on tour. Gulbis in 5. Hurkacz Lajovic : Grass suits Hurkacz game nicely as he has a big serve and good reaction time on his groundstrokes. A fairly flat backhand moves nicely through the court and although he’s had middling results through the grass season, he’s shown more promise than Lajovic. One of the smaller players on tour with a less than dominant serve, Lajovic prospers primarily through precision and intelligence. That counts for something on grass but what will decide this match will be Hurkacz ability to hold serve with a great deal more ease. Hurkacz in 4. Auger-Alliassime Pospisil : “Anything is Pospisil,” my friend says for the 400th time. “haha” I type for the 400th time. I am nothing if not loyal. If you watch Vasek Pospisil you think, This is a professional tennis player. Big serve, excellent skill, appears to be in top shape, but the results end there. Grass and the US Open will be his best chance to pick up some points, but this is a terrible first round draw for him. Perhaps injuries have hampered his rise on the tour in the past, but he has shown an impatience on court that speaks to a slight confidence issue in hanging with the top players. While they’re from the same country and this comfort can produce a higher level of tennis from the underdog, FAA’s current form on grass is not to be underestimated. Those saying he has a chance at the title are more hopeful than valid, but he is a favorite against anyone outside the top 30 in any round at this event. An easily repeatable serve, a great reach, and pure athleticism combine to form one of the best coached players I have seen enter the tour in a long time. Injuries cost him his big major debut at the French Open, but I expect him to be prepared for the big stage here and clean up a struggling Pospisil. The best thing I’ve seen from FAA has been the winners he hits to the open court. There are a lot of guys employing the “guide it to the spot and kinda cringe inward and hope” strategy, but this kid hits the ball with length and angle right through the court. This may cause an error here or there but in time (and he has it) it will produce a player whose standard shots are simply more aggressive and repeatable than his opponents. This is a future #1 barring injury. Given Vasek’s main strength is a big serve, he could hold his way to some tiebreakers, but the writing is on the wall. FAA in 4 at most. Dimitrov Moutet : Dimitrov has yet to have a match this year that did not seem like it was primetime disaster popcorn status. Moutet is likely most known for his gutsy loss in the French to Londero, but he has turned heads this season on the challenger tour and while he’s not the most athletically blessed guy, he’s left handed and has a great deal of determination and confidence about going after his shots. Dimitrov has been know to play too passive and to lose his length, and this is a player who will steal a set if you let him. That loss of focus is an intangible, and so while Moutet will be waiting and hoping for it, Dimitrov SHOULD (big should) win this in 4 sets. With the winner facing FAA, I really am hoping that he does. Dimitrov in 4. Sonego Gralloers : I glanced at the oddsmakers lines for this and noted that it’s a pickem. Granollers has all but vanished from the main tour this season, and Sonego’s game and stock has been on a constant rise. The expectation of fatigue following his win in Turkey this weekend could play a factor, and Granollers is a get artist who will extend any match. Sonego has the better serve, better forehand, and his backhand slice has proven quite annoying on grasscourts, and I expect fatigue to not be as much of a factor for a young player. Sonego in 5. Umbert Monfils : Monfils has taken a nice vacation through the start of the grass season, and as stated in his contract, he must play at like one Frenchman in the first two rounds of a major. I haven’t heard injury rumors about him, and while his loss to Kudla is a little troubling I caught that match and he was mostly practicing and enjoying himself. There is a great deal to like about Ugo’s game. He’s a lefty, he has excellent control and poise, and a good enough service game to allow him to remain in the top 100 for a few years at least. Monfils is going to be able to counteract these positives here though, and while he hasn’t shown much determination through the first section of the grass season, for many guys at the peak or end of their career these are warmup events, and I expect Monfils A or B game is enough to get him through this match. Since they’re French and since it’s Monfils, you’re going to have to consider that a 4 or 5 set clash could ensue, so I would avoid betting on it, but Monfils should come through here with relative ease. Monfils in 4. Medvedev Lorenzi : Lorenzi is the most annoying player on tour who no one should lose to. People do though, and his fight and skill at 37 steal him enough victories each year to keep him just around the 100-150 level. Medvedev is a player capable of the kind of anger and frustration that net Lorenzi most of his wins, but Medvedev in rage mode features no alterations in play and possibly even better serving than usual. This is oneway traffic. Medvedev in 3 incredibly drawn out sets. Carreno Busta Popyrin : Oddsmakers have Popyrin as a favorite in this one and the reason is the consistency that PCB has shown to lose close matches since his return. He has been losing the first set in almost 75% of his matches since his return from injury and this is a crusher on a surface like grass where it is hard to manufacture breaks which are really where PCB has always made his money. I cannot count the number of times PCB was broken at the end of a set and broke right back. He showed some promise before losing to Sonego in Antalya but he just isn’t back to his peak yet. Popyrin is unproven on tour, and while he’s notched some wins here and there the best thing about his game is his game. Results aside, Popyrin is one of the best talents in terms of ceiling on an Australian roster that features nothing but young talent right now with Kyrgios/De MinauThompson/Bolt etc. This is a real test on a real stage for him as PCB does not give anything away and has a representative service game, and I’d be hard pressed to call a clear winner here. I do think that coming through qualifying will give Popyrin a decent amount of confidence, and that notion that “this guy may be vulnerable” is enough that if he’s able to nose ahead he could win this match. While PCB’s level hasn’t quite returned to 2017 2018 level, he is still the way more experienced player. I expect this to go 5 sets, with the winner being a coinflip. Popyrin in 5. Chardy Klizan : Chardy has played some grass since the French and Klizan has not, seemingly, played at all. In a bo5 match Klizan may find his game and begin to pressure Chardy, but Chardy’s offense is such that he will likely already have a 1 or 2 set lead before this happens. I don’t see either guy getting blanked, and Chardy simply will be the more prepared player. Chardy in 4-5. Klahn Goffin : Goffin is back, my friend announced recently. A former high level tennis player and a current pro announcer, his words were just what I’ve been waiting to hear. After an eye injury which seemingly reduced all aspects of his game for months, Goffin finally began to show good form in Hertogenbosh and Halle. Wins over Berretini, Zverev, and Hughes Herbert are the most notable for me, as these players all present defensive challenges that the old Goffin was apt to solve, and the recent Goffin has been apt to get rolled by. A fairly simple first round opponent in Klahn will not present much opposition, and while Goffin can make anything into a match, I believe he would have to throw this one to avoid finding himself in the second round. Goffin in 3. Edmund Munar : Edmund began to show some excellent quality this week in his match against Evans. After not much of a season, and a first set where Evans showcased his entire variety in exchange for multiple breaks and multiple rounds of applause, Edmund again found a way to apply his forehand in a manner that breaks down his opponents mental game and turns them into defensive grinders. While he wasn’t able to find the cracks in Taylor Fritz game, playing on home soil against a clay court specialist should find him in the driver’s seat. Munar has actually shown more early in the grass season than I expected, holding serve enough to get to a tiebreaker against Fucsovics and Coric. That doesn’t offer much hope in terms of beating an in-form Edmund with the crowd at his back, however, and he will likely bow out and head to the hardcourt swing. Edmund in 3. Majchrzak Verdasco : Verdasco had the good fortune to be part of Sam Querrey’s return from an ab injury, but still nabbed a set. This is notable for me because had he not shown a spark of competition, it would be easy to write him off here. Some may remember Majchrzak from his marathon match with Kei Nishikori at the AO 2019, where had he not succumbed to cramps he would have likely pulled the upset and already been on the main tour. Life is a struggle however, and while Majchrzak has spent the last few months on the challenger tour, he has been racking up wins and will be ready for this stage. A big serve and crisp groundstrokes make him best suited I believe for a fast hardcourt, but the grass could easily be his coming out party. He came through qualifying and while I’m sure Verdasco won’t be taking this lightly, he will have a hard time shutting the kid out. In a match that will largely be decided by whose offense makes more errors, we may see the first upset of the 1st round here. Verdasco is a guy who requires favorable conditions to compete, and on an outside court against a “random” I don’t think he will do much besides complain if Majchrzak begins to roll. Majchrzak in 4. Arnaboldi Karlovic : I’ll be honest, I don’t know Arnold Arnaboldi. I don’t know if his first name is Arnold either, but it would be cute if it was, so it is. Having come through qualifying, I can guarantee he is a quality player with a fairly good ability to hold serve, and that’s enough to mean this match will feature tiebreakers. Who will win those tiebreakers? I have no flipping idea. Karlovic matches are the hardest to predict as until he throws in a bad service game he looks unbeatable, and once he’s in a volley it almost appears that he cannot play tennis at all. The grass suits his slices and volleys, and he would appear to be fresh after skipping the clay season and the grass. Karlovic in 4 or 5. Fabbiano Tsitsipas : After a good week and a nice warmup match with Querrey, Fabbiano has drawn a terrible first round opponent. While he is coming off a loss to FAA, Tsitsipas is one of the best and most well-rounded players on tour right now and has the edge in their past matchups. Fabbiano is a threat for an upset and has pushed some guys in the past, but he’s been a bit unlucky here with the draw and this should be a bit more than he can handle. Tsitsipas in 4. Anderson Herbert : Is Anderson back? Oddsmakers do not believe so, but also believe so. Anderson sits at -220 on Bovada and in what has been one of his best events in the past, this is a bit low. Herbert is one of the most skilled players on tour and is excellent at net, but his lack of power has at times kept him in matches he should have been able to win in quick fashion. Anderson looked unimpressive in his first match back from injury, and the jury is out on whether he is fully recovered, with a loss to Simon not really lending itself to believing that a deep run at Wimbledon is on the way. For gambling porpoises I would avoid this one, but as a spectator it is another intriguing story at an excellent event. Herbert has been on the edge of some big wins it has seemed at times, and a rusty Anderson may just be his chance to get one. Somebody in 5. Tipsarevic Nishioka : What a wonderful draw where Thiem plays Querrey and these two get to ball out in the first round. Tipsarevic has made some traction in his return from injury, and Nishioka has made more. While Tipsarevic is a great player with good control and a ceiling higher than Nishioka, that ceiling is well behind him and Nishioka is a difficult player to put away. I expect shockingly long rallies for grasscourt tennis in this one, and I suspect Nishioka will come out ahead in way more of them than Tipsarevic. Nishioka in 4. Seppi Jarry : A matchup of opposites. Seppi’s best surface. Jarry’s worst. Seppi’s controlled swing is short and allows him to adjust well in the grass. Jarry’s huge swing leads to all kinds of errors on his groundstrokes. Seppi’s strength is poise and consistency. Jarry wins 1 tournament a year and looks like a top 20 player then double faults his way to first round losses for 3 months. Seppi is towards the end of a bright career and his game is beginning to falter. Jarry is at the beginning of his and at probably his best. After a hard to watch loss to Simon a week ago it would be easy to write Jarry off here, but Seppi lacks the big weapons to put this one away in short order. This is another coinflip and given Jarry’s recent struggles I would not be surprised if Seppi wins. Seppi in 5. Copil Pella : Marius Copil is a player much like Chardy who is simply a joy to watch. He has a huge serve, a great deal of variety, and a beautiful onehanded backhand. Pella is a player without much flair but with way better results. Primarily a claycourt threat, Pella has defied the odds and grinded through a great deal of hardcourt upsets in the past few seasons. This is a match where Copil should be seen as having the edge with court conditions, but the consistency of Pella will likely make the difference if he is able to make it a physical battle. Hard to say on a grass court if he’ll be able to, and Copil has been able to pull upsets in the past when he is serving well. Pella in 5. Wawrinka Bemelmans : Scary. Bemelmans has just been a non-factor on the tour after being a consistent 1st 2nd round appearer for 2-3 solid years. Now he’s found his way nicely through qualifying, and plays a resurgent Stan. A bad matchup for Ruben, but a nice welcome back to the tour. Stan did lose to Mahut last week, but Mahut’s game was built for grass and going deep the week before a major has never been something the top guys have done. This should be one way traffic for Stan although given Bemelmans qualifying form, he may be able to steal an early set. Wawrinka in 4. Stebe Opelka : Stebe’s comeback trail hasn’t really offered him many winnable matches. This could be one. Opelka is so inconsistent a veteran like Stebe might be able to hang around long enough to benefit from the errors, but on grass that becomes even less likely. Opelka has probably the best serve on tour when it lands in, and probably the worst service percentages for anyone above 6’5” on tour. When his serve lands in however, it is not coming back. Stebe is not a particularly gifted returner, and his only real chance here lies in Opelka’s poor returning. While it sounds like I’m painting a picture for Stebe to win, I’m mostly cringing at the thought of the match being on Opelka’s raquet. This is a match that will either be oneway traffic for Opelka, or will be lost by him rather than won by Stebe. Opelka in 4 but I wouldn’t put a single penny on it. Kovalik Haase : Kovalik’s protected ranking has appeared with a very lucky draw. Haase has struggled of late and seems at the twilight of his career. There are not many first round matchups that Kovalik has a chance in, and the same can be said for Haase. Haase is going to have the bigger weapons here, and the rust has shown for Kovalik in the past few events. Haase in 4 or 5. Gunneswaran Raonic : It’s hard not to like Prajnesh’ freeswinging left hand. He has a very smooth service motion and a good attitude on court. Raonic is on his best surface however, and while injuries have really made his 2019 a complete bust, this is a warmup match. Watching Raonic serve in the early rounds at Wimbledon makes you wonder how he hasn’t won the event before and watching Federer inevitably return almost every one of his serves at 36 makes you wonder what the other guys are doing. We’ll miss out on that matchup this year, but it’ll be someone other than Gunneswaran who makes returns. Raonic in 3. Khachanov Kwon : I don’t know a ton about Kwon but Khachanov has been hit or miss all season. What I have noticed, however, is that he tends to step up for the big events. Given his ranking, and his relatively stable place on tour, this may be a conscious choice. Wins over Struff, Kecmanovic, and losses to Berretini do represent a significantly harder schedule however, than Kwon’s impressive (most sets won by 2 or more breaks) path through the qualfying. That kind of talent and his alltime high ranking of 123 mean he does have a chance to nab a set (Karen has a habit of losing a set in every match in majors) but he won’t be able to win this one outright. Khachanov in 4. Giron Lopez : Lopez is easy to hate while you watch him lose and easy to love while you watch him win. The guy is skillful and creative. Grass is his best surface at this stage of his career by far and he has picked up a titles in both of the past two years. He opens his Wimbledon with a match against Giron who first turned heads in the Australian Open by upsetting Chardy and De Minaur at Indian Wells before eventually falling in the third set to Raonic. An athletic player with a good forehand and a quick serve, he’s a bit one dimensional and this may give a significant edge to Lopez. Breaks are hard to come by on grass and Lopez is one of the most proficient servers on the ol Earth hair. Giron’s game (I haven’t watched the qualifiers I’ll admit) is mostly about power and when he was rushed at IW he did make some careless errors. I think given his form in the qualifiers he will definitely win a set, but Lopez should have the edge if the match gets close with his variety and experience. Lopez in 4-5. Darcis Zverev : Man if they aren’t trying to keep Mischa on tour. How the actual fluff did he manage to draw Darcis here. The problem is actually that Darcis has the kind of wicked slices and variety that are a nightmare to compete against on grass, but the fortunate thing is that he is getting towards the end of his career. This will come down to whether Mischa is able to get profitably to net, and honestly I am not optimistic. Whoever wins is going to get tuned up by RBA. I was a big fan of Darcis in his Fed Cup heroics, and I think he is probably in better form than Zverev here. Darcis in 5. Gojowczyk Bautista Agut : This guy RBA is the NBA 6th man winner on the ATP. While not regarded as one of the top 10 guys, he is the same amount of difficult to beat every time he steps on court, and when those top 10 guys play him he pushes them as much as anyone else. On the opposite side of the net we have Gojowczyk, who swings like his name and hits clean flat winners from anywhere. Unfortunately, he doesn’t hit as many of them as he misses so far this season, and RBA specializes in punishing this. This match will play about the same as it would on clay, with RBA targetings Gojo’s backhand and hitting as many kick serve to take him out wide and off balance as he can. RBA in 3. Paire Londero : Londero is adding nicely to his maiden win by notching wins and battling all the way into the grass season. Paire has been the best he ever has, and appears motivated coming into a tournament with a big emphasis on serving and volleying he is one of the shortlist of most talented players at the tactic. This is the classic Paire matchup, a guy who will fight for every point and expose Paire’s impatience, but who doesn’t have the big serving to keep Paire from dictating most of the rallies. If they both show up with frosted tips expect at least one awkward article from Tennis Channel about it, and this is similar to the Verdasco Majchrzak match in that I do think Londero has a chance if he’s able to get an early lead. I don’t expect Paire’s intensity will be able to win this in straight sets, and I’ll be taking the over here. Paire in 5. Carballes Baena Kecmanovic : RCB has actually notched some good grasscourt wins to start the season which is an unexpected bonus for a guy who makes most of his dollars on clay. Kecmanovic had a GREAT showing this week in Antalya and for one of the first times on tour will be facing a guy with less offense than him. I’m not sure of the fatigue factor, but given Kecmanovic’s dedication on the challenger tour I imagine his conditioning will get him through at least one or two more matches. Kecmanovic in 4. Cuevas Dzumhur : Dzumhur finally got a nice win last week over Ebden, and has another chance here against a guy who isn’t famously the most motivated on grass. Cuevas didn’t look great against Jarry, and while I’d like to write him off here, Dzumhur lacks the big serve that Jarry possesses. Dzumhur in 4 tight sets, but I would not be surprised if Cuevas pushes this one to 5, and given Dzumhur’s erratic past, this one isn’t worth predicting. Vesely Zverev : I love it. If Zverev shows up playing passive, he loses this one in straights. Vesely’s best upsets have come on grass, and he has come through qualifying easily. A big lefty with huge groundstrokes and a powerful serve is the perfect match to get a look at whether Zverev is going to be a threat in this section of the draw or not. I’ll be honest, I don’t suspect he will. Vesely in 4. Thiem Querrey : Woof. Querrey announced this week that his abdominal issues are behind him, and played some of his best tennis. While a loss to Fritz is not the best, he has struggled with him in the past so it isn’t completely unexpected. Thiem is coming off a brilliant run in the French Open and while he was unfortunate with the weather and scheduling, there’s no shame in losing to Nadal. Grass hasn’t been his favorite surface, but he hasn’t really struggled on it either. A big serve, huge power, and a good base of skill and variety make Thiem a threat to any player at any time on any surface. Querrey is just the opponent, however, to pressure Thiem for time and to take the raquet out of his hand on the serve. With both guys playing at a good level, this one should feature quick sets, several tiebreakers, and a section of the draw that actually looks like it will get easier each round until at least the 4th with Garin/Rublev waiting and the other section featuring dellien/milman/andreozzi/djere. Whoever loses will be disappointed here as this is just the worst 1st round for both. Querrey in 5. Garin Rublev : Garin looked real efficient and his movement was excellent in his exhibition match against Novak. He’s had a way better 2019 than Rublev who has struggled with injury. Where Rublev has bigger groundstrokes and can get in a great rhythm, he has suffered behind his second serve (double faults at the worst times), and his temper is simply a liability that I think he’s the only one who can’t see. Garin is composed, the better athlete, and in better form. Garin in 4. Dellien Milman : Oddsmakers have Milman sitting at about -1200. Dellien has been playing clay challengers so this is understandable, but Milman is not the worldbeater that warrants that kind of line. Dellien is a grinder, and Milman is the same. I don’t know if Dellien’s timing will be solid here, and I actually would have liked him to get in some grass practice before the event rather than kind of sticking to his bread and butter. Milman in 3, but if Dellien gets going he could make this a very long 3. Andreozzi Djere : Neither player has shown much in the way of victories thus far in the grass season. In their previous matchup Djere was able to best him on the slow hardcourts at Indian Wells. Djere is trending upward but grass isn’t exactly his best surface, so this won’t be oneway traffic. Andreozzi hasn’t exactly shown anything that shows he’ll pull the upset so. Tentatively, Djere in 4. Simon Caruso : Ooooh. Caruso showcased a big forehand and a solid serve at the French, and used the same to good effect to come quickly through qualifying at Wimbledon. Simon managed to wake up after a mundane early season, and looked to be finding his form on the grass. This is one of my popcorn matches for the first round, with Simon being a real slick opponent on the grass but not really having a way to just hit Caruso off the court. On the opposite end, Caruso will need to hit big shots to get through Simon’s defense and will have the chance to. Somebody in 5. Uchiyama Sandgren : Sandgren has really been hit or miss thus far on the tour. He briefly was very fit and looked to be stepping it up but the results didn’t follow. He notched two mid-level wins in Eastbourne, and while Ichiyama might be looked at as having a better level currently after coming through qualifying, 5 sets with Kubler isn’t really tour level stuff. Sandgren owns the h2h matchup 3-0 in this one, and I do think it’s a bit of a coinflip, but this has to be a mental battle for Uchiyama. I really don’t know who I expect to win this one. Fucsovics Novak : Tough draws are Marton Fucsovics reward on tour for about two years now. This one is no different. Countryman Dennis Novak seems to only show up for majors, and with his power and crisp serving he is a danger to anyone in the first round. This one can’t go anything but the distance with Novak’s form a great threat but Fucsovics defense and fitness being just a job and a half to hit through. Whoever wins here I expect to beat the winner of Tiafoe and Fognini so i’m excited to find out and hopeful it’s Fuscovics as he’s primed for some major results with his game. Fucsovics in 4-5. Tiafoe Fognini : Two guys who are sure they’re better than they are. Fognini hasn’t played since Rolan Garros and there’s a part of me that thinks he won’t be making much noise at this event. Tiafoe has been having a disappointing month but has at least been active despite his losses. Whoever wins will earn a war with Fuscovics or Novak and this pleases me. Tiafoe likely has the better chance and the higher level of motivation here. Tiafoe in 4. Cilic Mannarino : Mannarino is so very capable on grass. His forehand dips so nicely and his serving game is light years better with the aid of the swift stuff. Cilic’s reach should give him the edge here, neutralizing this. Mannarino is working with smaller weapons and it will show here. Despite some disappointing results, Cilic is still a threat and a fairly consistent performer at most majors. Cilic in 4-5 unless his backhand is unable to find the court on returns. Sousa Jubb : A great draw for Jubb who is making his debut at a major. A great draw for Sousa who isn’t at his best on grass but has been fighting and earning some good wins the past few weeks. Who wins? Probably not Jubb. Inexperience and Sousa’s ability to make matches a physical test are going to rob him of this opportunity, but qualifying as a teenager is simply an amazing accomplishment and given Sousa’s relatively weak backhand, there is a chance Jubb could steal a set. Sousa in 4. Delbonis Evans : Evans is having the best grasscourt season of anyone. He has gotten in a ton of matches, has had some wars and his skill level is the best it ever has been. A lot of people have been tagging him as a dangerous floater for anyone in the draw, and this is where my opinion deviates. While he’s an excellent skilled player, Evans works with smaller weapons, and has to maintain top level in every match he plays. I don’t believe he’d be favored against most of the top 50, but I was hoping he’d get some winnable matches as his variety is very relaxing to watch. Enter Delbonis. One of the biggest swings on tour and one of the most consistently well performing guys on clay, grass is something he plays but without much success. This is the perfect matchup for Evans, and with Ward/Basilashvili waiting there is a chance Evans can make a third round and get himself some valuable points he will need heading into a very difficult hardcourt season. Evans in 3. Ward Basilashvili : Basilashvili hits one of the hardest balls on tour, and has to be favored in this match. Ward, however has some nice wins over Kudla/Karlovic/Stakhovsky this season which show he at least will be competitive in this match. Although Basilashvili lost to Fucsovics and Berretini, he represents a step up in level for Ward and it may be the end of the road here for the hometown favorite. Basilashvili in 4. Shapovalov Berankis : Shap looked good in his exhibition against Novak and this is an ideal first round opponent for him. Berankis will be hard pressed to earn break points against Shap’s offense and Berankis profits mostly from his power and Shap’s defense will be able to negate that. Shapovalov in 4. Tomic Tsonga : A lot of people were upset with his loss to PCB but Tomic has been trying at tennis and that, my friends, is a miracle. I expect him to try here too and to make this loss respectable. On the other side of the net Tsonga has a bigger serve, better fitness, and the lowest percentage running one handed forehand pass in the game. Tsonga Shap 2nd round should be entertaining. Tsonga in 3 or 4. Kyrgios Thompson : The mental battle of the year for Kyrgios. Thompson will work hard and make Kyrgios do the same if he wants to win. Will Kyrgios engage and fight and “stoop” to Thompson’s level to get the work done? I haven’t seen anything to indicate that he is capable of that level of fight. I think if Thompson can stay tight in his service games, Kyrgios will get impatient and make an early exit. Kyrgios’ body with someone else’s brain could win Wimbledon, but all his antics and all his injury faking and all his talking to the crowd are just the actions of someone who is scared to try. Scared to find out how good he really is. Scared to care. Less tools, but all Thompson does is care and try. Thompson in 4 depressing sets. Sugita Nadal : Shame Sugita did not draw someone else as he is a pretty solid grasscourt player. Nadal has bitched and moaned about the seeding and kinda ruined any chance of me cheering for him here, but this should be over in straight sets. Nadal in 3. Nishikori Monteiro : Good warmup match for Kei and while Monteiro is a dangerous lefty, Nishikori’s backhand neutralizes the crosscourt forehand. This won’t be as simple as Kei in straights for the simple reason that his serve is semi-useless so far this season, but he should be able to get the win because Monteiro just isn’t the offensive terror that can hit Kei off the court. Kei in 3-4. Istomin Norrie : For a big serve, Istomin’s grass season has been fairly disappointing. Expect that to continue here with the hometown favorite Norrie playing his scrappy game to good effect. A loss to Rosol and Jubb don’t inspire hope in Istomin having the serving together to beat a player on the rise like Norrie. Norrie in 3-4. Johnson Ramos-Vinols : Johnson has a good chance to get some ranking points here. ARV isn’t much on the grass and hasn’t been that strong at all in 2019. A good serving performance has bolstered Johnson’s confidence in his last few outings and he should roll here. If the writeups seem like they’re getting shorter it’s because omg there are a lot of matches in this tournament. Johnson in 3. Cecchinato De Minaur : De Minaur season is fast approaching as we get this silly dirt and grass behind us, and while this one on paper should be a lock for De Minaur, he had a disappointing loss to Bedene who is a great grasscourt player but a guy you should be putting away if you want to be considered a “lock.” Still, Cecchinato’s best result on the grass swing has been only coughing up one break per set against Hurkacz, and this will be one way traffic as ADM is unlikely to give up the momentum once he gets it. De Minaur in 4 but probably 3. Struff Albot : Everybody’s adorable favorite Albot cannot seem to avoid Struff these days. On hardcourt, this is a closer test. On grass, the edge in power and serve favors Struff too much for Albot to do much more than take a set. Struff in 4. Fritz Berdych : Another great popcorn match. With Berdych having taken much of the past few months off, it’s hard to guess what to expect here. Oddsmakers notched Fritz at -170, and this is a nod to his only real result of the year, which is his title in Eastbourne. Honestly, I would expect his run to continue, but if Berdych is healthy, this will be an epic contest. Fritz in 4 or Berdych in 5. Andujar Kukushkin : Kukushkin will have too much variety and experience here for Andujar to have a shot at winning this. A claycourt specialist, dont expect much in the way of results from Andujar for the rest of the year. Kukushkin in 3. Ruud Isner : Isner published one of the most awkward comments of the year this week stating that if he lost in the first round he would go home a net loser. Travelling with his family, a team of coaches, a doctor, and being able to shell out for a house within walking distance of Wimbledon is a beautiful thing and something to be thankful for, not a burden to be pointed out in the media. Playing professional tennis is a blessing, not something to be negotiated at the ol dollar table. Besides, Isner is not going to lose first round. Ruud should make it to a few tiebreakers, but Isner’s serve at Wimbledon is something that will carry him through most matches and the first round is something (barring a secret injury) that he should not experience any fatigue for. Isner in 4. Berretini Bedene : One of the bright points of this season has been Matteo (win every single close match) Berretini. Simply put, the kid does not blink. With Baghdatis likely waiting in the second round I do expect Berretini to make a nice run here, and it will start with a good grasscourter in Bedene but a guy who traditionally does not beat the top 20-30 guys. Berretini in 3. Schnur Baghdatis : In what may be his last Wimbledon, Baghdatis has been lucky enough to draw lucky loser Brayden Schnur. I predicted Marcos would be finding his way off the tour a season ago, but he surprised me with his ability to win matches and his exceptionally solid backhand. A quick warmup with FAA last week, and Marcos looks to make at least the second round here against Schnur who has shown promise on the hardcourt but no real results to suggest he will win this one. Baghdatis in 4. Koepfer Krajinovic : Oddsmakers have this as a pickem and these are two very different men entering this contest. Koepfer plays mostly on the challenger level, but is coming off a grasscourt title in his last outing. Krajinovic hangs with some of the top guys on tour, but hasn’t played since the French Open. I admit I’m not very familiar with Koepfer’s game but it looks like he is the favorite here. Perhaps Kraj is injured or perhaps Koepfer is that good. I am excited for the latter and will be watching this one for sure. No pick. Ebden Schwartzman : Diego isn’t much on grass. Ebden is just having a terrible season. Grass is traditionally Ebden’s best surface but he hasn’t done much this year, and there’s no reason to think that it will start now. Diego in 3-4. Pouille Gasquet : As per contract all French players must play each other in every event, or maybe there are just so many of them that this happens? I don’t like this matchup. Gasquet is excellent on grass and while he’s at the middle/tailend of his career, I would love to see him playing towards the end of the first week. Pouille is a great talent and I love his aggression on the court. This is a tough match to call and when I peek and see J Clarke playing Noah Rubin and Bublik playing Barrerre below them, I kinda cringe. Pouille likely has the edge in form and Gasquet the edge on this surface, but it will be hard for either of these guys to put the other away quickly. Somebody french in 5 (probably Pouille). Bublik Barrere : I’m still waiting for Bubliks talent to match his mental game but it’s starting to materialize. Barrere is a solid talent and has qualified at a few majors already. Bublik leads the h2h with the one win coming by narrow margin (7-6, 7-5) in 2019 but also has been playing better comp so far on the grass. A 5 set win over Liam Broady will give Barrere confidence but may indicate that his level is not quite what it is on clay. Bublik in 5ish. Clarke Rubin : idc Harris Federer : Federer in 3.
Djokovic Caruso : I’m glad Caruso goes after his forehands, as it will be his only chance to win volleys here. Djokovic has been casually dismissing everyone thus far, and although he took some events off (refusing to do the work against Kohl, RBA, and Medvedev) his level in Madrid made it seem like only a fresh Dominic Thiem could really trouble him. There though was Nadal to make him look like fatigue could be an issue and while his early run has been immaculate the jury is still out. This is a Djokovic who looks like he cannot lose until he randomly does and leaves us all scratching our heads. This isn’t the round for it though and while I’d like to say Caruso’s stellar play will make him competitive having hit through Munar and Simon, it’s just impossible to guess how many game that will net him against Djokovic and the price on Djokovic will generally be a silly one not worth taking. Struff Coric : A who’s who of who cares. I apologize but this is one of the more boring matchups on tour. Struff did well to fight off a scrappy Radu Albot and now he’s playing Radu Albot with top 20 talent. This will be an excellent match but watching it will be watching the same exact volleys play out 300 times over the course of 2-3 hours. Struff has the bigger serve, has the bigger wins on clay this season, but the format and the matches thus far favor Coric as he hasn’t worked terribly hard but desperately wants to. Coric sits as a -250 favorite which really lends itself to taking Struff but honestly he should have been dominant against Albot and really found himself unable to take control of the match. Add in that Coric gave him the absolute beats last year in Madrid and you start to think that this could be where Struff makes his exit. For a guy with a big serve, big forehand, and big wins he just doesn’t get deep in events and a lot of his losses have been to guys willing to grind it out. Coric unfortunately only wins that way. He doesn’t hit a lot of aces, he doesn’t hit you off the court, his forehand can disappear though it does so less this season than last, and simply put that fight for every point mindset leaves a player tense and this can lead to errors when the point is finally “earned.” The line is set perfectly, and there’s no clear winner here except Djokovic against whoever wins. Fognini Bautista Agut : Fognini has been balling, and RBA seems to have stepped it up a level for the French reversing a poor result against Fritz in convincing fashion. The hole in Fognini’s game has always been his self-consciousness but he hasn’t thrown in the towel in a match this clay season losing only to Tsitsipas and Thiem which is really expected. The H2H is in Fognini’s favor but I would skip reviewing all of that for this match as they are both playing at a high level. Fogs errors against RBA’s susceptibility on serve is basically the question here and the books have called it a pickem which leads me to lean more towards RBA. Fogs has dropped a set in both matches so far so you expect RBA to win at least one. Given his consistency and defense you start to expect that he’ll be able to pick up a second set (one earned and one given). Get a guy like Fognini on neutral terms having dropped two sets and you really don’t expect him to go into a 5th ready to beat a guy who competes like RBA. At the end of it Fognini could lose in 4 but RBA is guaranteed to get to a 4th. This is the kind of match where 2018 me bet on RBA and the over but in 2019 I just lay in bed and watch two amazing players fight it out and bet on better things. Lajovic Zverev : I announced on insider (sports agent world) info that something was up with Zverev. I was wary of his physical condition after a long week but he was really crushing the ball today against Ymer, Now a tougher match as Lajovic doesn’t cough up the errors and moves the ball nicely around a clay court. The problem really is Dusan doesn’t have the serving game to keep Zverev from returning most serves, and the cheap errors that Zverev was coughing up on the forehand side have kind of disappeared. He is still working entirely too hard for his points, but his opponents now are also. Zverev has a tendency to serve with power but right to his opponents, but the one handed backhand is not the best tool for punishing that given the takeback necessary, and I believe Zverev will start most of his points on serve in control. This contest is simple; Zverev will have to cough up errors and become frustrated to lose, and while Dusan is a very intelligent player, he doesn’t have the weapons to win on his own. Zverev is one of my least favorite players to bet on but simply put this is his match to lose so I will be backing him here (most likely parlayed with Monfils or Delpo) Thiem Cuevas : Hell yeah. Cuevas can ball, and Thiem is my pick to win the tournament despite being awarded the toughest draw. The problem here is I backed Cuevas in the past in a match against Thiem since he has such variety, skill, and can play all day. What I saw in that match is what I expect tomorrow and that is that they play a very similar game. Cuevas’ backhand hits not quite as hard. Cuevas’ forehand hits not quite as hard. Cuevas’ serve is not quite as big. Where he does have an edge is in fluid skill as Thiem is somewhat rigid and tends not to adjust his swings when he’s pressured which results in backhands long and serve returns sailed long. Cuevas has a great deal of variety but doesn’t really hit through anyone so this shouldn’t come into play too much. I expect Cuevas to take a set as Paul and Bublik have and he is just a threat in a 2/3 match against anyone but Thiem should win this and set up another disgustingly complicated match against his next opponent Monfils. Hoang Monfils : Dzumhur’s not lookin so bad now. Hoang is notching some of his first high profile wins on tour on a very unexpected surface and on a big stage. A promising indoor player, Hoang has knocked off Dzumhur and Verdasco, the second of the two being the big surprise. I would have guessed that he would have lost both but here we stand. Monfils went ahead and showed that his “go 5 sets with all french players” days are over after drubbing Mannarino in the last round. He’s injury free at the moment, seems to be playing hard, and the Svitolina days seem to have brought out his best tennis. Hoang I haven’t watched much of but he should be able to hold serve for as long as his 1st serve lands, so it’s tough to say if Monfils wins in 3 or 4 but this would be the type of loss that would vault Hoang to stardom and crush really any positives about Monfils’ season so I’ll be on the expected side of history and back Monfils here. Khachanov vs Mystery Opponent : Khach hasn’t really blinked this event but he hasn’t played anyone dangerous yet. If Pouille comes through they should play 4 or 5 really good sets of 1 break tennis. If Klizan emerges I would expect a tougher match to predict in terms of outcome because he seems in quality form and Khachanov can cough up some breaks given the power and depth he tries to routinely hit with but I would expect Klizan’s backhand to break down way before he hits enough winners to beat a top 10 level player like Khach and I expect his quiet run to continue to set up a clash with Delpo. Delpo Thompson : Jordan MFin Thompson. Grinds out Fokina, cleans up Ivo. Now only a +250 dog against Delpo? I watched the Nishioka match, where Delpo looked just as exhausted as he does in every other match that he eventually wins. I also saw him absolutely crushing his backhand and hitting with incredible length. The line scares me. Thompson is not the mover of the ball that Nishioka is. The lefty’s ability to hit into the backhand is an extremely neutralizing weapon in most matches and Thompson Nishioka is a 5 setter every time but Thompson is a righty and a lot of what he does different from Nishioka is slice defensive returns which gives Delpo time to breathe, time to set, and just absurd control of the rally given that he can hit the inside out forehand into Thompson’s backhand. The line is creepy but if Delpo is injured (I saw his knee wrapped) or if tomorrow you tell me I lost my money because Jordan Thompson beat Delpo well fuck here is my money today, tomorrow, the next day, and forever because those type of results are simply not on his resume yet. Tsitsipas Krajinovic : Tsitsipas has proven himself to be legit. He is a top 10 player and a threat against anyone. He has brilliant variety, plays comfortably on the court, and his serve is there when he needs it. Praise is not enough to win matches though, and Krajinovic will test him here. Clay is his best surface, he’s having a solid tournament, and they’ve never played before. That being said, this is the type of win that Kraj has not really put together, and 5 sets with Carballes Baena who doesn’t boast the weapons and certainly not the serve that Tsitsipas has means that this should be over in 4. I expect the Federer Tsitsipas matchup, and this just isn’t the matchup to spoil it. Warinka Dimitrov : Woof. Wawrinka beat Garin like he did something. Dimitrov played the best tennis he has in two years in the final set against Cilic. This is simply who plays the big points better. Wawrinka opened as a -300 favorite which seems high given his track record so far this season, but the Garin match really included 0 bullshit, 0 slices, and just nonstop crushing of the tennis ball from him. Dimitrov is a superb defender and seems to rise to the level of his opponents, but with both guys really having exhibited 1 high level match so far this event/season, it’s hard to really predict anything here. I’d say Wawrinka has the edge, and there good “value” in Dimitrov, but what I’d really say is they capped this one perfect and it’s best to skip it. Mahut Mayer : Fuck. Fucking fuck. Well played Mahut you nutter butter. His run may not be out of nowhere but my bumass certainly did not expect it. I fully expect him to announce his retirement in a speech when he finally loses, and I may wise up and stop betting against him, but Mayer played excellent against Diego, and I don’t expect the same type of fatigue/shrugging that Kohl exhibited. Tbh my thoughts on a Mahut match are simply garbage at this point, and there’s no way for me to say my head is clear so I’ll just kick back and watch this one. Ruud Federer : I’ve had a bad history of trying to predict Federer’s eventual ruin. He always seems like he’s losing his mobility. His forehand’s going away. His back hurts. Simply put this guy plays tennis on another level. Novak can win 100 more majors and no one will repeat the simple yet beautiful style that Federer exhibits on the court. Ruud is crushing the ball this tournament, and is coming off an excellent and surprising straight sets win against Berretini. I would love to see him push Roger here but I wouldn’t bet on it. Given the inflated odds I really wouldn’t back Federer either. This is a popcorn match that I think will produce a Fed win in 4. Nishikori Djere : I’ve missed every Kei match this event and it’s unfortunate as now he’s playing a guy whose form and attitude could allow him to produce an upset. The odds are adorable -400 for Kei and that’s probably fair. He dismissed Tsonga in front of a home crowd, he’s a consistent top 10 player, and clay doesn’t exactly hurt his game. When Nishi is on you wonder how he doesn’t win every tournament, and when Nishi is off it’s mostly due to extremely hot weather or an injury. I would like Djere to acquit himself here but I’ll be skipping it and expecting Kei to win a very very very long match as Djere hits big and doesn’t miss. If I had to call an upset, this is where I would. Carreno Busta Paire : 5 of the most spectacularly skillful and creative sets of tennis you’ll see this event produced Benoit Paire into the 3rd round. PCB and Paire play each other pretty much every event, and there are enough random results in their past to convince you that either player has the edge. This matchup is particularly interesting, as PCB basically faced break points in every service game when they played in Barcelona earlier this year, but really did threaten to steal the match after winning a 2nd set tiebreaker. Going into the third it looked like PCB was back and Paire would return to the plucky but angry 2nd round loser, but he rolled for a 6-1 win. Paire has not stopped since picking up at least 1 challenger title and scalping a ton of solid players on the dirt. Here’s where it gets interesting. PCB basically lost every match after his comeback, and now looks like an entirely different player. As a guy who has excellent runs in pretty much every major he’s played in the past two years, this has oddsmakers opening the match as a pickem, and PCB racing up to -180 when last I checked Bovada. The holes in Paire’s game are fewer than normal these days, but his forehand is one of them, and errors in bunches are the other. His backhand and serve will be the biggest weapons on court, but PCB is the right guy to reflect that power and his length can keep Paire away from the net where he excels. It’s hard to speak to a player’s conditioning but that was an extremely emotional win against Herbert and there’s a good chance that Paire will not be able to escape this one. Bought my mom a house, spent the rest on PCB. Londero Moutet : But I thought these guys lost first round? Moutet scored a brilliant win against Pella, and Londero printed money for basically half the internet in his last match against Gasquet. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen a single match of either of them, so I’ll admit I’m not much help here. Londero has a really impressive top gear as seen in his title run, but Moutet has the much more impressive victories thus far. I don’t really think Londero should be more than a 2:1 favorite but he is, and I don’t have a good enough reason to wager either way. I expect the over here with both players having a lot on the line and being in basically their best form ever on tour. Goffin Nadal : Rough one for Goffin who people have indicated is back in top form. Clay just doesn’t let him hit through the court, and while Nadal has been vulnerable this season I don’t expect Goffin will be able to produce the winners that the guys who’ve beat him can. Like a Schwartzman Nadal clash this one will produce a lot of ooh’s and aah’s but there will only be one winner, and he'll be fixing his hair and tugging his butt all the way to the finish line. Edit : I don't like to recommend betting on women's matches, but Ash Barty over Petkovic should be going in most of your parlays.
Meant to work on this earlier but my friends love poison and poison’s a team game so I got a little intoxicated. Djokovic Kudla : Kudla has resurrected his season and remained on tour by getting some points in the grass season. By far his best surface in the past, he had some upset potential were he anywhere else in the draw. Novak is unlikely to be tested until he plays FAA and he has 1 more tough match to get there against a quickly rising Moutet. Kudla plays hard but he is entirely too straightforward and doesn’t have a big enough serve to trouble Djokovic. Novak in 3. Mayer Hurkacz : Mayer looked healthy enough in round 1 and skipping the entire grass season seems not to have held him back. This is an interesting matchup because Hurkacz is supposed to win. He’s got a slightly bigger serve, Mayer’s prime surface is supposed to be clay, and while Mayer has had some solid performances in the past two seasons Hurkacz is a player whose stock is rising. Mayer leads the H2H 2-0, however, and while Hurkacz was steady in his defeat of Lajovic Mayer possesses a similar game to Lajovic with the inclusion of more power off both wings, a larger reach, and a much much bigger serve. I would not be surprised if this contest included tiebreakers and in a match like that there’s not a very clear way to predict a winner despite that being the point of me writing this. Unfortunately I’m not here to write a pretty article I’m here to offer up the input I have on tennis. Somebody in 4. Auger-Aliassime Moutet : Dimitrov played two perfect sets of tennis and had his chances in the third. The odd thing is despite Moutet stealing a third set in which he was twice down a break and really just hanging on by a thread, there was not reason for Dimitrov’s level to drop. Where his confidence issues ended up felling him against a rising star, FAA may have the answer. Although he’s young in his career he has put in a lot of hard yards on the challenger tour (it’s odd he hasn’t played Moutet yet as he mingles in the same district) and has experienced playing difficult opponents who make you earn every point. On the opposite side of the net Moutet is that player. FAA is listed at what I think is an inflated -575 on Bovada. I somewhat agree. He has served to better effect this grass season, his groundstrokes are of excellent quality, and while Dimitrov thinks he has to get to net and play spectacular tennis FAA is more about precision and good decisions. I think the odds ruin the value but I do expect FAA to arrive at the inevitable clash with Novak. Simply put Moutet has smaller weapons and a lower ceiling of his game than Felix. FAA in 4-5. Humbert Granollers : Monfils is the Raonic of getting injured. Fixing to clean up Humbert in the appropriate amount of sets he encountered what only he can and ended up retiring. I’d love to say Humbert earned that one and he did play at a high level but it was more about Monfils delaying the inevitable. Speaking of the inevitable, where did Granollers come from. Sonego was having a good grass season and has emerged on tour as a threat at the 250 level. Granollers played lockdown tennis as he did in qualifying and Sonego was forced into errors and passes that he was unable to produce after a long week in Antalya. The math at work in this is Humbert’s ability to hit through Granollers' defenses vs Granollers ability to pressure the younger player into errors. Oddsmakers have declared this a pickem and while I agree, I lean towards Granollers taking the match as he is in slightly better form and Humbert has had a fairly complacent grass season. Humbert is a lefty and a great serve and that can’t be discounted, so I don’t think it will be easy for either player to run away with this. Granollers in 5. Medvedev Popyrin : Popyrin hit right through a real fake test in PCB. He served at a decent clip, hit aggressively from the baseline, and played the big points a little better. While I’m a big fan of PCB, he’s not back to his prior form yet and his service games have been a huge liability. That’s where he differs with Medvedev. Medvedev is a pusher with a top 20 serve. It’s hard to make sense of that until you see the patience that he exhibits on a tennis court. His tight two sets with Lorenzi are really a byproduct of Lorenzi’s experience more than any struggle on Danil’s side. The issue with this match will be if Medvedev cannot break Popyrin’s serve he may be able to snag a set or two. That’s a big if, however, and I expect Medvedev to have the easier time holding serve. Medvedev in 4. Chardy Goffin : Chardy has been a thorn in Goffin’s side in the past. He has a pure game and while Goffin is adept at shaping the ball around the court Chardy’s only real struggle is with pace. A pure striker with a great serve and a tennis IQ that makes me wonder what the actual fuck most of the coaches are doing with their players, Chardy isn’t a guy who will lose in straight sets. Goffin has been resurgent for the first time in over a year in this grass season, and while this is encouraging, he will have to work hard to win this match. I wouldn’t put a cent on Goffin at -300 and I don’t expect Chardy to magically be able to hit through his defenses when he lost to Norrie a week ago. Expect this one to go to Goffin in 5 if he plays well or Chardy in 4 if he doesn’t. Verdasco Edmund : Both opened their grass season with a quick loss at the hands of a top 20 player. Both played their second grass event and notched two good wins before falling to an American in top form. Both advanced through the first round in 3 straight one break sets. If you’re sensing a trend in predictions it’s because the 2nd round presents a lot of matches that are very very tight. Edmund is playing on home soil and is in what is supposed to be the prime of his career. Verdasco has won their last two clashes (in 3 sets) and the big key I think for him is Edmund’s poor movement. While he takes tennis as serious as anyone Edmund has had a big problem with remaining in volleys once he’s moved out wide on the court. Verdasco is a primadonna quitter who swings for the fences. This one will come down to whose forehand implodes first. Verdasco in 5. Karlovic Fabbiano : Nobody watched Karlovic’s match, but we all know what it included. The guy has the best serve the ATP will ever see. If he were not so immobile he would win half the tournaments. Everyone watched Fabbiano’s match, and stared at Zverev likely without noticing the excellent and legitimate talent that Thomas possesses. This is a match that I consider Fabbiano’s reward, and while it will be extremely difficult for him to break Karlovic he is playing at a level that will make Ivo’s stealing a break equally difficult. Fabbiano in 4 tiebreakers. Anderson Tipsarevic : Finally something I can lean on. Anderson looked excellent against Herbert, who has more weapons and better agility than Tipsarevic. Anderson’s game during rallies bothers me not because anything is wrong with his ballstriking but because he has a very simple shot selection. I do feel that forcing your opponent to anticipate is a huge advantage in sport and Anderson has done a ton of work to become one of the best baseliners of all the bigmen but he forfeits variety with this. Tipsarevic should be able to pull some errors out of him but the issue will be getting into rallies. Anderson sports a top 5 serve and while he struggled with injury and confidence in the past, he has enough major results that he won’t panic or doubt himself. Anderson in 3. Seppi Pella : Get some, Seppi. A good win for a good vet against an error prone Jarry sets up this clash against a guy who gives you 3 hours of error free tennis. Pella plays with margin and wants to outwork you. This will be a physical contest and given Seppi’s abbreviated service motion I think Pella will be able to work his way into his service games. On the opposite side Pella is probably on par with Schwartzman for fewest aces in the top 50 and this probably won’t be a straight set win for just that reason. Pella in 4. Wawrinka Opelka : Grass isn’t Stan’s best surface. He’s been know to struggle and go deep with opponents in the past. Tennis isn’t Opelka’s best game. He seems like a great kid and he can serve aces and smoke some groundstrokes that’ll make you think he’s like a better version of Isner, but he’s not there yet. Wawrinka may serve smaller but given Opelka’s struggles returning Stan won’t have to do as much and won’t have to press as much to hold serve. Opelka can take the raquet out of anyone’s hand and get to a tiebreaker but I don’t see him winning more than one. Wawrinka in 4. Haase Raonic : Haase wins a match! What scares me about this matchup is Raonic is made of feathery glass, and Haase has a big serve and excellent reach. What bothers me about backing him is he really appears to be falling victim to his age this season. Subpar results, complacency, and a win over a struggling Kovalik don’t lend themselves to thinking an upset is coming here nor the outstanding display of returning that it would require. Raonic in 3. Khachanov Lopez : Is this match over already? Books opened this with Khachanov around a -160 favorite and it has just slowly sunk every day. Lopez has a) not beaten him ever at tennis b) only one way of beating him which is serve and volleying through 3 winning sets against a guy with excellent movement and reach. I know Lopez won a grass event. I know he has a vicious serve. I just don’t think people are considering the opportunity. At +110-+130 you’re basically trying to call an upset and getting not much value. The problem is in his title run he beat a few quality players in Simon, FAA, Fucsovics, Raonic but he played 3 sets with all of them. Raonic was at the event to warm up for Wimbledon he wins 0 250/500 level events. Khachanov would tune up Simon. Fucsovics lost a set to Novak so you know it’s not really his dominant surface. FAA is 18 years old. I’m not saying Lopez doesn’t have a chance here I’m just saying there’s no value predicting it. It will be hard for either player to break the other’s serve and it will likely come with a burst of errors. Another match where I’m expecting multiple tiebreakers. Khachanov in 5. Darcis Bautista Agust : Darcis made quick work of Zverev. RBA makes quick work of everyone until someone from the top ten bets him in straight one break sets. Darcis is a slick player with good variety but RBA is an unblinking robot ball machine and he is unlikely to lose this match barring injury. RBA in 3. Paire Kecmanovic : Paire’s first round win over Londero looked inevitable yet didn’t inspire confidence. Kecmanovic was doubted by oddsmakers in the first round likely based on fatigue after his title run in Turkey,a nd came through nicely. The surface here is Paires only saving grace. Kecmanovic is exactly the type of player that works hard enough to profit from the errors and lapses in concentration that Paire offers up. Another match that really I expect to go 5 sets. I’m aware that kind of prediction doesn’t help people make money but not every match is worth predicting. Kecmanovic in 5. Cuevas Vesely : Cuevas! A win on grass is rare for the Uruguayan and his reward is a familiar opponent. Vesely was solid in his defeat of Zverev and while Cuevas is a brilliant athlete he is working with smaller weapons here. Vesely’s strength are his serve and groundstrokes and he should be able to remain on offense against Cuevas who really only redlines his offensive game once he’s lost the lead in a match. On a grass court it will likely be too late once he does. Vesely in 4. Querrey Rublev : Rublev is scary. He is the kind of kid who uses capslock every time he angrily texts his parents from his room. When he gets to swinging his racquet he has proven time and time again his opponent doesn’t matter. I wish he actually were playing a different opponent as when he is in good form on tour he makes for some exciting matches despite behaving like an angry carrot that’s come to life. Querrey played just wonderful tennis against Thiem and that backs up his warmup event last week where he lost an inconsequential final. This section of the draw is wiiiiiiiiiide the fuck open and he is the most experienced player with the best serve. I don’t suspect fatigue will play a part yet, and that’s bad news for Rublev who can hit with the same power but doesn’t possess the same serve. Querrey in 4. Millman Djere : Do you like extended baseline rallies on a grass court? Djere had a much harder test in the first round, and while Millman has had a good couple seasons and might be considered the more seasoned player Djere’s results have shown that he is a threat to anyone outside the top 20. Millman’s problem in this match will be that he wants to do exactly the same thing as Djere but Djere is the bigger hitter. Djere in 4-5. Simon Sandgren : A nice win over a somewhat fatigued Uchiyama lands Sandgren in the second round. With a style and results that make it seem like he’s just a dude who kinda hangs around tennis events and enters when they let him, he now matches up against a guy whose results indicate that form is a major requirement for his success. Luckily, Simon has looked excellent and relaxed this grass season. I don’t expect Sandgren’s style will be able to hit through Simon’s defense and this will mean if Simon can hold serve, he rolls in this match. That is generally harder said than done given the lack of pace on his delivery, so Sandgren will be on the court for a long time with no real chance at winning. Simon in 5. Fucsovics Fognini : Fognini managed to turn it up against Tiafoe and was rewarded with just an absolute fuckton of errors. Fucsovics and Novak played one of the matches of the day and it’s a shame more people did not catch it. This is a spot where I do consider the upset the most likely event. Fognini was not serving aces today, and Fucsovics is a solid striker and a brilliant defender. Fognini will have a difficult time remaining focused and has been known to force shots when he feels trapped in a rally. Fucsovics in 4. Cilic Sousa : Sousa played great tennis against Jubb. Cilic is just not Jubb, however, and he had a good warmup against Mannarino who is the kind of grass opponent that will hit you one of every single kind of shot that exists. Cilic has struggled this season in early rounds but grass is one of his better surfaces and you have to give him credit for solid results in majors. Sousa will work hard but Cilic’s defense and confidence in this match will see him through. Cilic in 3. Evans Basilashvili : Not sure what to expect in this one. On one hand Evans is in great form and it seems like a nice comeback story. On the other hand he has struggled with guys with power (Edmund Wawrinka). I’ll say the big factor here is Nikoloz going 5 lengthy sets with Ward. The hometown favorite acquitted himself well, but I expected Basilashvili to win in 4. After winning 8-6 in the fifth, there is no player who can say “i was the significantly better player” and that is the sort of level I believe is needed to dismiss Evans with his current form. One more W for the Brit. Evans in 4. Berankis Tsonga :Tsonga is really profiting from this draw. Shapov, and I mean this in the meanest way possible, can break down his game and grind out a win against someone like Berankis any time he wants to. He has lost matches like this a number of times since his debut and it’s starting to get tedious. It’s one thing to try to develop a top gear that can compete with the top guys, but you have to win matches to get there and he just doesn’t. Tsonga will be perfectly happy though, as Shap has slumped against low level guys but always brings it against the 10-30 tier. Tsonga likely won’t be broken that often in this clash, but Berankis didn’t just get gifted the match against Shap and did play some solid tennis so he may earn a set. Tsonga in 4. Kyrgios Nadal : This is what we came for. The worst part about it is having the great match in the hands of Kyrgios, who may just phone it in or fake an injury or bicker with the crowd. I’m tired of writing or thinking about this lazy fuck. Nishikori Norrie : An equally frustrating match for the opposite reasons. Norrie has turned in some of the worst performances I’ve seen this year, yet the plucky moron keeps going out there and competing. He really should not have a chance in this match, but given Kei’s difficulty scoring easily on his serve, this will be a long one. Kei has the benefit of having played a lefty in the last round, and while he’ll lose crowd support in this one, a loss here will signify the beginning of his fade from contention at major events. Kei in 4. Johnson De Minaur : Johnson sports the way bigger serve. The advantages end there. De Minaur plays about as hard as Nadal, hits with great length, and forfeits style for efficiency. This is the kind of match i’ve been watching Johnson lose for quite some time. The backhand is a liability against anyone willing to put in the footwork, the pedestrian run around the forehand strategy is not sustainable over the course of a match and the indecision that arises as one moves to that position out of habit causes errors. De Minaur in 5. Struff Fritz : Woof. Both guys in top form. Fritz never blinked against Berdych who was rusty but played decent. Struff gave back a bunch of breaks against Albot but closed out each set nicely. One of these guys will be pumping their fist as if they always knew they were the better player at the end of each set, but it’ll be a choice few point that decide this one. Struff in 4 or Fritz in 5. Kukushkin Isner : Kukushkin was the last leg of almost every parlay I placed on the first round and he never made me sweat at all. Isner stumbled a few times against Ruud but wasn’t really tested. This one is a match similar to the Ivo/Fabbiano match in that one guy has a WAY more dominant serve but both should be able to find their way to a tiebreaker. I do think Kukushkin’s lack of power may become a liability as Isner plays himself into form. Isner in an awkward 5. Berretini Baghdatis : Berretini lost a set but cleaned up a solid Bedene nicely. Up next is Baghdatis who is at the Lorenzi level of stealing matches. The problem here is Berretini doesn’t give up unforced errors and the pressure he applies off the forehand wing is constant. I don’t believe Marcos has the physical prowess at this stage to really play defense here and I think this will be one way traffic and the retirement of just an incredible player. Berretini in 3 and Baghdatis in our hearts forevaaaaaaaa. Koepfer Schwartzman : Koepfer looked exhausted halfway through the first set against Krajinovic but played some gutsy offensive baseline tennis to get through the match. Up next is the only guy in the draw Koepfer is taller than, and fortuitously a similar defensive test to Kraj. Koepfer is a slick lefty with good pace on his backhand and a deft use of the dropshot, and his only difficulty here will be fatigue. Given his recent title run you expect him to have something left for the second round, and given the appearance of fatigue followed by 3 straight sets against a solid defensive player like Kraj it may just be that that’s how he always looks. Koepfer in 4. Pouille Barrere : Pouille Gasquet seemed like a close one but Pouille owned the H2H 4-0 in recent affairs and extended that easily. Up next is the qualifier from his hometown. Tbh I’m sleepy and I don’t see a clear way for Pouille to lose this one, but since they’re French I don’t think it’ll be straight sets. Pouille in 4. Federer Clarke : Good win for Clarke. Federer in 3.
So this is the year I beat this game. Last year small loser - don't have my poker tracker hooked up to gauge stats (so that should be a goal for 2019)- so don't know exact details. Info on me - 55 year old (MAWG) so have some nitty tendencies - been playing online since 2006. Was a small winner in Full Tilt/Stars games (includes rakeback) up until Black Friday. Took a year or 2 off and found Bovada/Ignition maybe in 2014 and thru present, I'm a break even player. I play in another Stars home league that I crush (I know the players and they are very very bad) so I'm able to fund the Ignition habit through that. Random stuff: 1- what videos/books would be best to get advice on beating this particular game (Hudless, anonymous, fast fold poker) 2- Give me 5 hands you would flat a 3 bet OOP with. Currently I am super nitty and tend to fold AJ and AQo in those spots. Sometimes I call with 77-QQ. Sometimes flatting with AK (sometimes 4 betting/getting it in). Occasionally flat with 78s, 97s, 65s for balance. Folding a ton (as I think I should be). 3- Blind defense - I am by and large defending as her Mathew Juanda's Application of NLHE charts. My gut says this is too loose in these games because in theory people should be folding marginal hands even in position therefore I would need an even stronger range here. For example, if button opens to 3x, I usually call with Q8s, K7s type hands. 4- 3 betting light from the blinds - Not withstanding my comment in #3 that people should be opening with stronger hands, there is almost always a raise by the cutoff or button if unopened. I have a default to 3 bet A2-A5s, A10s-Aks. Is this profitable, should I ever flat some of these hands. I tend to mix up between calling and raising 66-JJ as I feel like these hands are too strong to get blown off by a 4 bet. 5- Give me 5 hands you would always defend with in position (lets say cutoff or button vs. one of the blinds). Again I struggle with should I flat with hands like AJ, AQ and KQo. I prefer to flat with 97s, 65s, as I feel that AK and AQ are common holdings that a blind is going to be 3 betting (although I have some card removal in my favor). 6- Help in 3 bet pots. I tend to get lost sometimes in 3 bet pots especially with whiffed hands like AX, sometimes barrelling off stupidly when it became obvious that villain ain't folding. 7 - I tend to cbet entire range with exception of when board texture favors a caller's range. Example, I open with KJs in EP and button flats. I tend to check fold on 6-7-9 type flops. 8- What else? Would love to hear from players beating this game on some strategy and advice that propelled them. Peace and Happy New Year!
My Gambling Addiction Story: How I've lost $40,000 in my life as a 22-year-old
This is my first reddit post, so please excuse the length, as well as the quality. I’m currently struggling with a gambling addiction that I’ve had for around four years and find that nothing I do has succeeded in helping me overcome this addiction. I figured that other people have experienced a gambling addiction and have successfully overcome one, so I would love to hear anyone’s thoughts, advice, or comments on my situation, as well as gambling addictions in general. As a kid, I’ve always had an addictive personality. I remember when I was younger, I would play video games for hours on end non-stop. One of my biggest regrets to date is not reading more as a kid. The cognitive ability of reading is one of the most underrated skills in life and my peers and friends who read for fun growing up are not only fast readers, but generally do well in school and life. At the time, I didn’t think much of my video game addiction as it was not harming myself or others. Little did I know, this small addiction would serve as a gateway to a larger addiction that would bring a lot of stress and problems in my life. Fast forward to the summer after graduating senior year of high school. Growing up, I’ve always been really into soccer, playing competitively on a traveling club team since I was eleven years old. By my senior year of high school, I was committed to a prestigious university to play collegiate soccer. During my high school soccer season my senior year in the spring, I broke my foot in the league championship game against our rivals (which we won). This was the first time in my life that I’ve ever suffered a serious injury and let me tell you, I was not ready for the setbacks that I would face from it, both physically and mentally. For those of you who have never broken a bone, it is one of the most debilitating physical things that can occur to someone, especially if it impairs daily, routine activity. I had to use crutches or a knee scooter to get around everywhere and could not exercise, which caused a great deal of anxiety and jitteriness for me given that I’ve grown up living an active lifestyle. Around the same time, I had some friends who were talking about a casino that was only 15 minutes away from where we lived and it was also an 18+ casino. Given that I couldn’t really do much with a broken foot, I decided to make a trip to this casino to find out what people were talking about. Little did I know that this innocent, first trip to the small casino near my house four years ago would take me down a dark path of gambling. I remember on my first trip to the casino, I was so excited that I grabbed a handful of cash (I think around $100) and drove as quickly as possible to the casino. When I tried to enter the building, a security guard stopped me and asked for my ID. Amidst my excitement, I realized I forgot my wallet with my driver’s license at home, which led me to speed home to grab it. On my way home, I was stopped by a police officer for going 15 miles per hour over the residential speed limit. The officer was nice enough not to penalize me for not having my ID, but I still received a $140 ticket. After that happened, I was in a pretty bad mood, but still determined to find out what it was like to wager money on a bunch of cards. I remember the first trip to the casino, I actually lost my $100 in about 15 minutes playing blackjack, which should’ve discouraged me from setting foot in a casino ever again. However, me being someone who thinks that they’re smarting than the average gambler, I went home that night and practiced memorizing basic strategy (a strategy that minimizes the house edge in blackjack), as well as studied card counting, specifically the Hi-Lo method (wagering more money when the remaining cards are favorable for the player). Armed with this new knowledge, I was determined to beat the game and make money from my local casino, after all, it did cost me $240 the first time I went. The few trips after my first, I was making money pretty consistently. I remember there was one time I turned $60 into around $600 and other times where I would walk away making a couple hundred dollars. I didn’t think that gambling was a problem during this time as I was going with my friends, making money, and getting a crazy amount of adrenaline from the casino runs. Being at the blackjack table allowed me to forget about my anxiety and depression that gradually compiled due to my broken foot and the inability to exercise. It provided an escape from the limitations that my broken foot had instilled on me. At the same time, I was working at Domino’s as a delivery driver, and remember taking the cash from the tips I earned each day that I worked (ranging from $60 to $200) and drive over to the casino to test my luck for that day. For those of you who don’t know, gambling is dangerous because winning money is really not that difficult; however, walking away with the money is a completely different story. A majority of times I went to the casino, I was up from my original buy-in at some point; however, that meant nothing considering I didn't walk away winning most of the time. I started spending more and more time at the casino, and eventually started losing money, including all the money I had previously won from the casino. The problem started getting particularly bad when I started lying to my friends about going to the casino. I even remembered multiple times where I would go with friends (who had more self-control than I did), and would stay longer than them (losing my ride) and resort to calling other friends to pick me up or taking a cab home. To make matters worse, one of the things I’m most ashamed of to this day was gambling on the birthday of my girlfriend at the time which caused me to be late to her birthday dinner with her family. To make matters worse, I remember taking my girlfriend to dinner near the casino, stopping by the casino to redeem one of the bonus coupons they give you to entice you to visit more frequently, and having her wait in the car for an hour while I played blackjack. Despite having nights where I won over two grand in a matter of a few hours, I still ended up losing at least $3,000 that summer. Luckily, I was going off to college in St. Louis, far away from my hometown casino in Kirkland, Washington, which should have prevented me from gambling during my four years at college. My Freshman year of college was rough, my foot hadn’t fully recovered so I was not able to play soccer to my full potential. On top of this, I had a difficult time making friends, and was in an unfamiliar, uncomfortable environment. I was surrounded by extremely wealthy, privileged kids from the Northeast, who grew up going to private school. Most of these kids have never worked a job in their lives. This made it a much more difficult time getting accustomed to my new school having grown up on the West Coast, going to public high school, and working throughout high school. Additionally, the way the social scene at my school works is through Greek life, as the population of social, normal people is pretty small. To make matters worse, as a guy, one of the only ways to have a good social life is joining a fraternity; however, since the fraternity houses are pretty small relative to state schools, many kids who rush don’t receive bids. I was unfortunate to be a part of that group when I rushed Freshman year. On top of this blow to my self-esteem, I underwent foot surgery since my foot was not making any progress healing. This caused me to have to rely on crutches and a knee scooter again for the next couple months. I was legitimately depressed and at the lowest low point of my life. I was not doing well in school, didn’t have a girlfriend, and felt like I didn’t have any close friends in general. This was around the time that I discovered the realm of online gambling, a path that would unfortunately be worse than live casinos. Online casinos make it extremely easy to deposit real money into them, and coincidentally, pretty damn difficult to withdraw money. I remember visiting a casino called Bovada and making my first $100 deposit with my debit card. This deposit quickly lead to more $100 deposits, until I had lost around $1,000 playing online blackjack and poker in a matter of hours. At this point, I didn’t have a job so I was essentially gambling away money my parents had given me to spend on food and necessities. I was too ashamed to tell my parents about this problem, as they were extremely disappointed after I told them at the end of the summer after senior year of high school. Luckily, at this point in my life, I didn’t have too much disposable income to gamble away so the damages were minimal. The next few years in college got better, I quit soccer and got into lifting, got into a fraternity, and made a lot of new friends, who I’m still close with to this day. Aside from getting into sports gambling for around a month and losing $1,000, I would lose between $1,000 - $2,000 whenever I would go home for winter break at the original casino I went to. Although this was a decent amount of money, I was still able to allocate some of the money that I earned from my college job towards personal spending and was just happy that I had the self-control to ration out a percentage of it that I was comfortable losing when I did gamble. The good thing was that I did not gamble too consistently my sophomore and junior year of college and more importantly, I was not obsessively thinking about it every day. Now senior year of college was where everything took a turn for the worse and led me to all-time lows in my life. I remember playing poker for $25 buy-ins with my friends at my apartment every night for the first half of the school year. This wasn’t a problem financially since losing $25, was not a big deal to my financial health. Additionally, it was more of a social activity where most people weren’t too concerned about the money and were playing for a good time. This did negatively impact me; however, as I was constantly thinking about poker and gambling in general, all the time. Around the same time, I got my signing bonus from the company where I will be working at in a couple months and started heading to the nearby casinos with my roommate to play blackjack. I remember the first night we went, I won $2,000 and he won $500 and that immediately hooked me back into the whirlpool of blackjack. I started going at every opportunity I got, which also led to the revival of my online gambling addiction. I remember specifically, one time when I was playing online blackjack, I turned $200 into $4,000, submitted the withdrawal request, but since online casinos take a long time to process the requests (intentionally as they want you to gamble the money away), I ended up losing the $4,000, along with another $1,000 or $2,000 on top of that as I was chasing my losses. I was actually making money at live casinos, but losing double the amount that I made online. This gambling ended up coming to a brief stop when I had lost my signing bonus and all the money in my bank account and I took a break for around a month or so. The addiction started back up when I received my next paycheck from my college job. The instance, the check was deposited into my bank account and cash was available, I would race over to an ATM and withdraw money to gamble with. I quickly lost $1,000 of it back home when I took my friend who visited to a nearby casino. It was around this time he told me about an app where you can invest in stocks called Robinhood, so I put around $5,000 of that paycheck into stocks on the app. When I put the money in my stock account, I remember making a pact to myself that I would never touch a table game again. I mean “New Year, New Me” right? As you can guess, my pact didn’t last very long as I started playing live poker in the casino. I was so drawn to the appeal of winning money by making the right decision. I was actually profiting from playing live stakes poker, as I studied the game and had sound strategy. The dangerous part about playing live poker for me (I personally don’t consider poker as a complete gamble as there is skill involved), was that whenever I went to the casino to play poker, there were temptations awaiting me (table games). After a month or so of playing strictly poker, I started getting back into blackjack again, along with baccarat, and went to the casino 4-5 times a week. After draining all the money from the stock account, I started borrowing money from my friends as I knew I would get a big paycheck from my job at the time at the end of the school year. Additionally, I started dating my current girlfriend in January of that same year (whom I am currently dating) and love very much. I can regretfully say that gambling has not positively impacted my relationship with her in any way. When my girlfriend and I went to California during spring break, I remember staying up all night on an online casino playing poker, blackjack, and baccarat after she fell asleep. I exhausted all my money in my bank account including maxing out my credit card, during that trip, and had to borrow money from my girlfriend, one of the most shameful things I’ve done to this date. Additionally, I remember one night where I promised her that I would meet her at a party my fraternity was hosting after I went to the casino to play poker with some friends. I drove two of my friends over, and one of my friends left for the party with my car, while me and my other friend stayed. We ended up playing poker the whole night, and despite being up a couple thousand dollars from blackjack, I missed the party and really disappointed my girlfriend. Some of the biggest fights that I have gotten into with my girlfriend were fueled by gambling. The monetary gains that result from the casino are always temporary because at any point in time, you can lose all the money in your bank account if you spend enough time playing games that are specifically designed to make you lose. Additionally, my addiction has caused me to disappoint my parents and family. No matter how successful I become, I know they will always be worried about me since they know that this dangerous addiction can ruin my life at any moment, without giving any warning signs. I’ve read so many different stories about how this addiction leads to one of the highest suicide rates when people gamble their life away and feel like there is no way of recovering. I would really like to put an end to this problem, at an early age, before I allow it to affect my relationships with my friends and family. I started skipping out on social events, and hanging out with my friends in general due to my addiction to gambling. All I thought about 24/7 was all the money that I would make playing poker and blackjack. At one point, I was betting 3 black chips like they were worth a few cents as opposed to one hundred dollars each on table games. I had to lie to my friends about going to the casino because I was embarrassed about that side of my life. The summer after my graduation, I just continued to dig myself into a deeper hole. I would win money in real life, while losing money playing online poker and blackjack. After the big paycheck from my college job came in, I stored away a decent amount of money in my Robinhood stock account to invest, but in a matter of a few short months, I had gambled away most of that money. I’ve borrowed money from multiple friends, even my girlfriend, and have also exhausted my credit card on several occasions. The loss of money started affecting my play in live poker. I ended up losing $5,000 playing live poker, along with $15,000 online, and at least $20,000 in casinos. Even though I graduated from a prestigious university, and I have a solid job lined up in the fall, I battle constantly with this addiction and the urge to gamble with the hopes of earning all of my money back and being done with gambling once and for all. What started as a spark of curiosity turned into an escape from emotional pain and eventually into a lifelong attempt to break-even. I've tried many things to overcome this addiction, but nothing has worked successfully. I'm posting on here today because I want to end this addiction once and for all. I figure if I post on reddit, I will at least have written down this commitment in a publicly available space. TL;DR: What started as a curiosity about what gambling was turned into a four year struggle with this addiction that has led to financial distress, relationship problems, and unproductive behavior. Wrote this reddit post to seek advice on overcoming a gambling addiction, and would love to hear any thoughts, comments, or concerns.
Baseball upsets never get the attention that upsets in other sports get. Partly because there are approximately 2,400+ regular season baseball games every year, so the impact of one upset isn’t extremely notable. Also, in my opinion, the gap between the best and worst baseball teams may not be as huge as the gap between the best and worst teams in other sports. The Tigers beating the Dodgers on a random Tuesday in 2017 may not blow you away. But the Browns beating the Patriots? That would be a huge freaking deal. The Hawks beating the Warriors? Shocking. Anyway, I think baseball upsets do deserve some attention, so I’ve made this post compiling the 20 biggest upsets of the 2017 season. While there are likely statistical formulae to figure out the odds of the 2,400+ games, that would’ve taken forever to compile, so I simply used some Vegas numbers. Vegas knows what it’s doing. And when people talk about sports “upsets,” they’re usually talking about Vegas odds anyway. For this exercise, I used historical odds from Bovada (and in case of a tie from BookMaker), as compiled by Sports Book Review. I used the plus/minus money line for each game from before the game began. A minus (-) indicates the team is the favorite, while a plus (+) indicates the team is an underdog. For example, the Bovada betting line for Game 7 of the World Series was +138 (HOU) and -158 (LAD). The Astros were the underdog, and the Dodgers were the favorite. If you had put $100 on Houston, you would’ve won $138, plus your initial bet, for a total of $238. If you had put $100 on Los Angeles (and they had won the game), you would’ve won $63.29, plus your initial bet, for a total of $163.29. (Note: I’m not advocating gambling. Please be responsible.) Without further ado, here are the 20 biggest MLB upsets of 2017.
20. September 20 - Phillies (+220) beat the Dodgers 7-5 Box score. The Dodgers’ Alex Wood entered the game with a 2.69 ERA, while his counterpart Jake Thompson was sporting a 4.46 ERA in limited time (he spent most of the season in AAA). Things went as expected initially as the Dodgers had a 4-2 lead in the 7th inning. But their usually reliable bullpen coughed it up, with Ross Stripling allowing home runs to Aaron Altherr and Tommy Joseph in the bottom of the 7th and Luis Avilan and Brandon Morrow teaming up to allow two sloppy runs in the 8th. The game capped off a brutal 5-19 slump for the Dodgers that was among the weirdest things to happen in 2017. 19. June 22 – Angels (+225) beat the Yankees 10-5 Box score. The Angels were playing their third game in a tough eight-game road trip (Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers) in late June, when they sent Jesse Chavez (4.85 ERA) to the mound against a good Yankees lineup at Yankee Stadium. New York was struggling, but played well at home in 2017 and had Luis Severino (2.99 ERA) on the mound. The Yankees jumped out to a 5-1 lead in the second inning, but the Angels rallied late, scoring seven runs in the innings 6-8. Starlin Castro’s error opened the floodgates. 18. September 30 – Pirates (+225) beat the Nationals 4-1 Box score. James Taillon (4.62 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (2.55 ERA) was a lopsided matchup, but Scherzer had to leave the game with a hamstring cramp and the Nationals didn’t have much to play for at that point in the season. Still, Washington carried a 1-0 lead into the 9th when trade-deadline acquisition Brandon Kintzler decided to poop on the mound. 17. August 18 – White Sox (+230) beat the Rangers 4-3 Box score. In his previous nine games, James Shields was sporting a 7.58 ERA. And he was coming into Globe Life Park in Arlington. In August. Shockingly, he pitched well and Nick Delmonico went deep twice (including an inside-the-parker) and the ChiSox pulled it out. It was the only game they would win that week. 16. June 11 – Rangers (+230) beat the Nationals 5-1 Box score. A 53-year-old rookie by the name of Austin Bibens-Dirkx, whose previous career high in innings-pitched was 4.2, faced off against eventual Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer at Nats Park. Somehow this turned into a pitcher’s duel with Bilbo-Dirts (7 IP, 1 ER, 2 K) and Scherzer (7.1 IP, 2 ER, 10 K) dominating until the Nats bullpen came in and did its thing. 15. August 2 - Tigers (+230) beat the Yankees 2-0 Box score. The Tigers were limping along (nine games under .500) when they came to Yankee Stadium in early August for a three-game set. The Wednesday afternoon game featured an underperforming Jordan Zimmermann (5.69 ERA) vs. an underperforming Masahiro Tanaka (5.09 ERA). For the first and only time all year long, Zimmermann allowed zero runs. Justin Upton’s RBI-double was all the Tigers needed. 14. June 15 – Phillies (+230) beat the Red Sox 1-0 Box score. Nick Pivetta (5.52 ERA) faced off against some scrub named Chris Sale (2.97 ERA). The Phillies had lost eight in a row. The Red Sox had won five of their last six. But because baseball is dumb, Chris Sale dominated (8 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 10 K), had a double at the plate (Boston’s only XBH), and still got the loss. 13. August 19 – Yankees (+235) beat the Red Sox 4-3 Box score. Even though both teams were good in 2017, Vegas went all in with Boston on August 19, as they were playing at home and had a favorable pitching matchup (Sale vs. Sabathia). But Tyler Austin’s 3-run home run off Chris Sale proved to be the deciding blow of the game. 12. July 24 - White Sox (+235) beat the Cubs 3-1 Box score. Vegas had trouble with the Cubs this year. With Chicago’s dominate 2016 regular season and World Series championship fresh in their minds, oddmakers almost always picked the Cubs, especially in matchups against bad teams. And on paper, Miguel Gonzalez (4.89 ERA) vs. Kyle Hendricks (4.09 ERA) at Wrigley Field was a good matchup for the Cubs. But Adam Engel’s solo HR off Justin Grimm in the 6th broke a 1-1 tie and led the ChiSox to victory. 11. July 21 - Braves (+245) beat the Dodgers 12-3 Box score. The Dodgers came into this game on an incredible 31-5 (.861) run. They were 38-12 (.760) at home so far on the season. Through 16 starts, Alex Wood had a 1.56 ERA. He had allowed eight total runs at home in nine starts. Things could not have been more stacked for LA. But Jaime Garcia, in his final start for the Braves, pitched very well (7 IP, 3 R, 4 K) and hit a grand slam! 10. June 20 - Angels (+245) beat the Yankees 8-3 Box score. The second game in this LAA/NYY series to make the list. Parker Bridwell made the start for LA, only his second career start, vs. the enigmatic Michael Pineda. The starters matched up evenly and the game was tied into the 7th inning, when future World Series champion Tyler Clippard took the mound. This is how things went for him: home run, booming double, deep flyout, triple. 9. June 24 - Twins (+245) beat the Indians 4-2 Box score. Only three games on this list featured matchups between playoff teams. This was one of them. Kyle Gibson (6.56 ERA) faced off against Corey Kluber (3.58 ERA) on a Saturday afternoon at Progressive Field. Kluber was amazing (7 IP, 3 H, 0 ER, 13 K) and the game was tied through seven innings, but Brian Dozier (off Cody Allen) and Chris Gimenez (off Zach McAllister) went deep late to win the game. 8. August 11 - Padres (+255) beat the Dodgers 4-3 Box score. The Dodgers entered this matchup stupidly hot, having won 15 of 17 games. The game was at Dodger Stadium and featured a Clayton Richard (5.17 ERA) vs. Rich Hill (3.47 ERA) matchup. The Dodgers led 3-2 heading into the 7th inning, but Ross Stripling coughed up solo HRs to Manuel Margot (his second of the day) and Jose Pirela to blow the game. The Dodgers would go on to win 10 of their next 12 games. 7. September 7 - Rockies (+265) beat the Dodgers 9-1 Box score. The final game on this list between two playoff teams featured the reeling Dodgers (losers of 11 of 12 games) vs. the cold Rockies (losers of 11 of 17 games). The Thursday night game was at Dodger Stadium, and Clayton Kershaw (1.95 ERA) was on the mound against Jon Gray (4.26 ERA). Kershaw had lost just one game at home all season long, yet the Rockies knocked him out in the 4th inning and pounded away at the underbelly of the LA bullpen. CarGo had three hits and Arenado hit a 3-run HR off Kershaw. 6. September 21 - White Sox (+265) beat the Astros 3-1 Box score. The White Sox (8-11 to this point in September) faced off against the Astros (13-5 in September) at Minute Maid Park. Carson Fulmer was making his third career start opposite Dallas Keuchel (2.96 ERA). Fulmer threw just 20 pitches before leaving the game with a blister. Things looked bleak for Chicago, but Chris Volstad came in to settle things down, and six more Chicago relievers after him combined to shutout the Astros over 4.1 innings. The Houston broadcast of this game featured a weird segment on Brian McCann and Alex Bregman cuddling. 5. September 13 - Braves (+265) beat the Nationals 8-2 Box score. Luiz Gohara, making his second career start (his first - 4 IP, 6 ER), vs. the future Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer at Nats Park. But Scherzer got rocked in his worst start of the year (6 IP, 7 H, 7 ER, 6 BB, 7 K) and Matt Kemp hit a grand slam off Brandon Kintzler. Annoyingly for the Nationals, they only went 10-9 vs. the very bad Braves in 2017 and were outscored by 15 runs in those games. 4. July 4- Padres (+275) beat the Indians 1-0 Box score. The “Fourth of July Miracle,” as no one calls it. The Indians entered the game as the AL Central leaders, while the Padres were 20 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. Trevor Cahill (3.27 ERA) faced off against Corey Kluber (3.02 ERA) at Progressive Field. Kluber was coming off an insane June -- 43 IP, 6 ER, 7 BB, 64 K, 1.26 ERA. But the Padres scratched out one run against the future Cy Young Award winner (on a thrilling RBI groundout), while Cahill and an army of San Diego relievers mowed down the Cleveland lineup. The Indians’ best chance to score, after a one-out triple by Jose Ramirez in the second, was erased on a 1-3-2 double play. 3. September 18 - Phillies (+280) beat the Dodgers 4-3 Box score. Clayton Kershaw is so good that his team is an overwhelming favorite even on the road. The Monday night matchup of Clayton Kershaw (2.12 ERA) vs. Nick Pivetta (6.75 ERA) was as lopsided as it gets. But with the Dodgers clinging to a 2-0 lead and two outs in the bottom of the 6th, Aaron Altherr hit the first evergrand slam off Clayton Kershaw. 2. September 2 - Padres (+280) beat the Dodgers 7-2 Box score. The Dodgers had just entered their bizarre late-season swoon, but Vegas, like the rest of us, didn’t understand just how bad things would get for LA. The Dodgers had lost six of their last seven games, but were the heavy favorite in game two of this Saturday day-night doubleheader. Jordan Lyles (6.94 ERA), recently acquired from Colorado, was on the mound for the Padres, while Yu Darvish (3.88 ERA) faced off against him at Petco Park. Darvish lasted only three innings and the Dodgers went 1-7 with RISP. Matt Szczur had the big hit for the dads. LA would lose its next nine games. 1. September 30 - White Sox (+295) beat the Indians 2-1 Box score. As evidenced by all these September upsets, oddmakers had a little trouble gauging teams in the final month of the regular season. Rosters are expanded up to 40 players. Some teams have nothing to play for. Some teams rest their best players for the postseason. So wonky things can happen. And a very wonky thing happened on the last Saturday of the regular season. The White Sox (66-94) went into Progressive Field and beat the Indians (101-59), despite a matchup of Carson Fulmer (4.42 ERA) vs. Corey Kluber (2.27 ERA). The Indians still had something to play for (AL homefield advantage), so they trotted out their mostly A lineup and let Kluber throw 81 pitches. But Fulmer pitched well (5 IP, 1 R) and the Chicago bullpen pitched four no-hit innings after him. Kevan Smith’s RBI double in the 6th inning off Mike Clevinger proved to be the game-winner.
Boxing Record: 4-4 YTD, +2.47 units The Odds (Bovada): Ryan Burnett: (-950) Nonito Donaire (+575) Prop Odds (Bovada): Pending Total Rounds (Bovada): Pending Prediction: Nonito Donaire is moving back down to Bantamweight to challenge Ryan Burnett for the WBSS. Donaire has been fighting above this weight for the past 7 years and has come up short against Rigondeaux, Walters, Magdaleno and Frampton. He is fighting Irish Ryan Burnett, (who trained with Frampton in the past) and I believe Donaire will likely retire if he loses. Donaire has the world class experience that Burnett lacks, with Burnett's having mostly domestic wins in Ireland and England. However, Donaire is a decade older than Burnett and at the lower weights, 36 is ancient. And there is an unknown question mark if the weight is going to turn Donaire into zombie, as it has happened in the past to aging fighters who move down in weight. Note: Nonito did make weight no problem. Burnett is light on his feet and has good speed but he also keeps his hands low; He isn't hard to find. Donaire, in his heyday, was also fundamentally flawed but he had world class speed to go along with one punch KO power, which is rare at the lighter weights. However, in his recent fights has turned into somewhat of a plodder and only looks for the KO shot. I don't think his power translated at the higher weights and Donaire didn't have the skillset to compete with bigger men. But he really only lost to much bigger men (Walters and Frampton) or bad style match-ups (Rigo and Magdaleno). Most recently, Donaire was competitive in spots with Frampton although he clearly lost the fight. The weight and age of Donaire is a concern for me but he has beaten this level of opponent in the past. I don't think Burnett is as good as the fighters Doanire has lost to (he also isn't as big, he's a few inches shorter than Donaire). Donaire has shown a solid set of whiskers, only being stopped by Walters who was a huge Featherweight and had the frame of a Lightweight. Burnett has a low KO percentage so I doubt he stops the Filipino Flash. However, the fight is taking place in the UK, so we might get a British stoppage if Burnett manages to buzz Donaire (I say this a bit tongue-in-cheek, I don't expect it to happen even if it has in the past). My Bet: Donaire might be faded here and he is old as dirt for a Bantamweight at 36 years old. However, I think it is insane to put an unproven guy like Burnett as a nearly 10:1 favorite. Yes Burnett has youth on his side, he'll have more stamina, he'll have the crowd and most likely the judges. But there is no reason to believe he wins this fight 1 out of nearly 11 times. Burnett isn't a master boxer like Rigo and he doesn't have Walters size or punching power. And Burnett is a flawed fighter who keeps his hands low which could be his downfall if Donaire is able to land his left hook. It wasn't pretty for poor Fernando Montiel, look up that KO to see how scary Donaire's power is. Now maybe that Donaire is gone and he simply doesn't have the legs or stamina to compete, or even the reflexes to land a big shot on Burnett. Or that this is his retirement fight and he might just pack it in if he is losing. Okay, that's possible and if you feel like hedging, take Burnett by decision. Me, I'm going to take Donaire at +575 because I do believe he can still beat this level of opponent. And I think the betting markets have overpriced the young gun. Nonito Donaire +575
2-1 YTD, +3.95 units Porter won a close decision last fight. Can't win em' all. The Odds (Bovada): David Lemieux: (-190) Gary O'Sullivan: (+155) Prop Odds (Bovada): Lemieux By KO, TKO, or DQ (-115) Lemieux by Decision or Technical Decision: (+400) O'Sullivan by KO, TKO, or DQ: (+270) O'Sullivan by Decision or Technical Decision: (+500) Total Rounds (Bovada): Over 9.5 (+170) Under 9.5 (-250) Prediction: David Lemieux and Gary "Spike" O'Sullivan square off on the GGG-Canelo II rematch on Saturday for perhaps the Canelo-GGG winner. Both men are coming off of decisions over nondescript opponents. The fight has turned into a grudge match after Lemieux made the fight personal, talking about O'Sullivan's recent domestic dispute. O'Sullivan has also been dismissive of Lemieux, saying he is overlooking him and that Lemieux is scared of him (crapping his pants when he walked by O'Sullivan). It should be an explosive fight. Lemieux was a KO artist coming up the ranks, having stopped his first 20 opponents. Lemieux ran into Marco Antonio Rubio in his 26th fight and at age 23 was stopped for the first time. Lemieux unloaded shot after shot on Rubio but eventually gassed out and was stopped late. In his next fight, he lost to Alcine by MD, perhaps the level of opponent still being too great for a confidence win. He did rebound and won the next nine fights before running into GGG, being stopped in the seventh of a non-competitive fight. Lemieux has four losses on his record, being schooled once by Phenom Billy Joe Saunders, the forgivable loss to GGG, and his two early losses to Alcine and Rubio. Lemieux is a born puncher and still in his prime at 29 years old. He is the type of fighter you don't want to trade with (see the Curtis Stevens KO). And I believe that is exactly what is going to happen on Saturday when he fights O'Sullivan. O'Sullivan is riding a six fight win streak after quitting on his stool against Chris Eubank Jr. O'Sullivan also has an early loss to Billy Joe Saunders, a schooling similar to Lemiuex's loss. O'Sullivan doesn't have the same experience as Lemieux and is older at 34 years old. O'Sullivan did quit against CEJ and doesn't have knockout losses like Lemieux. However, he didn't face GGG or an experienced vet like Rubio at a young age. In fact, although O'Sullivan is five years older than Lemieux, he has 13 less fights. While Lemieux has been characterized as "limited" or a "slugger", you could use those same adjectives to describe O'Sullivan. I think this fight we get a slugfest between two limited sluggers. While Lemieux has been stopped in the past, I don't think his chin is that bad. There is no shame losing to GGG (and GGG in fact boxed Lemiuex, weary of his power). His other stoppage was more stamina and being young/inexperienced. You can't go in there and blast out every opponent (Kostya Tsyzu learned that against Vince Phillips). The BJS loss is a wash since O'Sullivan lost in similar fashion. I don't think you beat Lemieux by trying to knock him out. If O'Sullivan gets dragged into a war, he loses it IMO. His KO ratio is pretty high but he couldn't stop a welterweight in his last fight (or even get him off his feet). Lemieux's boxing might be limited but his punching power is for real. Slickness is Lemieux's kryptonite and O'Sullivan doesn't have that. I think he ends up another KO victim on Lemieux's resume. My Bet: I will be betting David Lemieux by KO at -115. O'Sullivan doesn't have the style or punching power to beat Lemieux in my opinion and I think he gets stopped somewhere in the middle rounds. I know Lemieux hasn't stopped a couple of the journeymen in his prior fights but those guys are durable (Reyes has 1 KO loss and Anchour has none). You can question O'Sullivan's heart as he quit against CEJ. You quit once, you can quit again. And against a bonafide puncher, that is exactly the type of guy to quit against. And if he doesn't quit, Lemmy has the power to turn his lights out. Either way, I think he loses the fight. David Lemieux by KO (-115)
A question for any regular Zone Poker (or similar) players...
For one, I usually do not go on forums to complain or rants on about bad beats like (probably) a lot poker players, but... Recently, I took a liking to the Zone offering on Bovada. The nature of high volume plus a TAG-NIT approach seemed to click and have done fairly well in the past few months. Not boasting, but with the high volume I did notice A LOT of strange play. I’m not of the “online poker is rigged and it’s all bullshit” blah, blah, blah nature.., but I was wondering if anyone has noticed the same play. Notably, with bigger stacks (in this case, 2x max. buy-in and above) I think it would be safe to assume more often than not, a player with this kind of stack has some skill and is raking the fish. Yes, some donks donk off other donks and it’s a big donk stack. Whatever. For the sake of argument, I’m going to lean on the above average skill type. Now, these I’m going to share are only 2 of the recent hands I can recall. Granted, they do not happen very often given the high volume of hands played, but the play is mind blowing and concerns me to some degree. I don’t remember exact detail of each hand, but whatever. If you know, you know. First. Other dude has about 3x max. buy-in. Don’t recall the suits at the moment but they are irrelevant to the hands... I’m in big blind - UTG raises 4 or 5x, everyone folds, I call with AJ suited. Flop is J-J-6 rainbow - I bet out 3/4 of the pot, he raises me big (about 3x), I flat call. Turn is J-J-6-4 - I check, he bets big (more than half the pot), I shove, he snaps... River is J-J-6-4-2 - I sit with my AJ he shows pocket 4’s. Uh...huh... Next hand. Other dude has a little over 6x max. buy-in. Again, I don’t remember suits, but whatever. I’m in big blind again - Mid. position raises 3x, only I call with KQ off. Flop is Q-Q-4 rainbow - I check he bets pretty big (about 3/4 pot), I raise 3x, he flats. Turn is Q-Q-4-9 - I bet a little over half pot, he calls, I’m pot committed at this point. River is Q-Q-4-9-8 - I bet half pot, he shoves, I call, he shows pocket 8’s. Again, I’m not complaining. It’s awfully interesting how (at least from my experience) only big stacks at these tables play like this and run well. Just would like to hear thoughts about it. Thanks for reading my rant!
Boxing Record: 5-4 YTD, +8.22 units Recap: Nonito Donaire stopped Burnett last fight for a nice 5.75 unit profit. Don't expect that to happen often, that was a grand-slam HR in betting. Most wins will be of the Single-variety. The Odds (Bovada): Oleksandr Usyk: (-800) Tony Bellew (+500) Prop Odds (Bovada): O. Usyk by KO, TKO, or DQ -110 O Usyk by Decision +160 T. Bellew by KO +600 T. Bellew by Decision +1400 Total Rounds (Bovada): Over 9.5 (-120) Under 9.5 (-120) Prediction: Cruiserweight Champion Oleksandr Usyk faces Tony Bellew this Saturday at Manchester Arena. Usyk won the WBSS Cruiserweight tournament after schooling dangerous Murat Gassiev. Bellew is coming off two victories over former Cruiserweight and Heavyweight Champion David Haye. Bellew challenged Haye at Heavyweight as an underdog and managed to best his fellow British fighter by stoppage both times. Haye did injure himself in both fights and was past his best days, coming off of inactivity. Bellew claims he will retire after his bout with Usyk. Usyk won Gold at the London Games in 2012 in the Heavyweight Division. He has spent his career thus far at Cruiserweight, culminating in his win over Gassiev. Usyk completely dismantled Gassiev in Gassiev's backyard (Russia). On his way to the championship, he beat the experienced Marco Huck and underrated Mairis Bredis. Usyk doesn't have many discernible weaknesses and moves extremely well for a big man; he is also a Southpaw. Usyk has been likened to his fellow countryman and other P4P entrant, Vasyl Lomachenko. Perhaps one weakness for Usyk is he sometimes becomes complacent when he is ahead (IE loses focus). He also isn't extremely heavy-handed, many of his stoppages are of the wear-you-down than clean KO type. To his credit, he has 11 KO's out of his 15 professional fights. Tony "Bomber" Bellew began his career as a Light Heavyweight. His first loss came against Nathan Cleverly by Majority Decision. Bellew beat Isaac Chilemba in a rematch after a draw to face current LHW Champion Adonis Stevenson. Stevenson came out to an early lead before dropping and stopping Bellew in the 6th round. Bellew moved up to Cruiserweight (he complained, probably rightly, that he struggled to make 175 pounds) and faced Valery Brudov at Echo Arena in Liverpool. Brudov had Bellew out on his feet in the seventh from a big right hand before Brudov landed a low blow which gave Bellew the reprieve he needed to clear his head. Ultimately Bellew stopped Brudov in the twelfth round. Bellew was also down and hurt badly in his fight with Ilunga Makabu before Bellew rallied back to stop the tough guy from the Congo. Bellew has shown issues with his chin throughout his career. Tony Bellew is your does-everything-well-but-nothing- extraordinary type of fighter. Bellew has decent speed but is no speed demon, he has respectable power but not turn-your-lights out power, and his skillset is good but he isn't an elite level-talent. In other words, he is a good couple of levels below Usyk as a fighter. My Bet: Well, I think everyone knows where I'm going with this. Oleksandr Usyk is simply the better fighter. I can't give Bellew any more than a puncher's chance and I'm of the opinion those rarely come through. Bellew doesn't have the movement to outbox Usyk, who isn't the athlete Usyk is. While I think Bellew has good pop, I doubt he punches any harder than Gassiev or Bredis who couldn't hurt Usyk. Really, Bellew has no advantages in this fight except for the home crowd. Which, unfortunately for him are coming to see an execution and not one last victory before retirement. The prop for Usyk by KO is -110. It makes no sense to take that bet when the under 9.5 rounds is -120. Maybe I'm wrong and Bellew lands a home run shot on Usyk and knocks him out. It's really his only shot and he'll have to do it early. Once Usyk figures him out, I think it'll be target practice for the Ukrainian. I'm willing to give up the later rounds (half of the 10th, 11th, and 12th). If Usyk doesn't stop him before than or if it goes to a decision, I'll tip my hat to the Bomber and say you somehow survived the fight. But I'll expect him to drop a very wide decision to Usyk in that case. But really, I expect to see an Usyk KO somewhere in the middle rounds. Under 9.5 rounds (-120)
Boxing Record: 6-4 YTD, +8.92 units Recap: The under 9.5 rounds cashed for us in the Bellew-Usyk fight. I was getting worried there for a bit but Usyk finished Bellew with a KO of the year candidate. The Odds (Bovada): Jarrell Miller: (-1800) Bogdan Dinu (+850) Prop Odds (Bovada): Miller by KO, TKO, or DQ (Pending) Miller by Decision (Pending) Dinu by KO (Pending) Dinu by Decision (Pending) Total Rounds (Bovada): (Pending) Prediction: Jerrell "Big Baby" Miller faces Romanian Bogdan Dinu at Kansas Star Arena, Kansas tomorrow night. Miller is coming off a second-round blowout over a very shot Tomasz Adamek. Dinu is coming off a eleven-month layoff after beating a journeymen in his home country of Romania. A win for him will bolster his career which has stagnated after ten years of being a pro. Jerrell Miller earned his nickname "Big Baby" because he often comes into the ring weighing more than 300 pounds (he came in at 315 pounds for this fight). Even at 6'4", you can't call him big-boned or husky; he's carrying some extra weight around the mid-section. He has some solid wins on his resume over Gerald Washington, Mariusz Wach, and Johann Duhaupas. Miller, in a former life, was a kickboxer and had a limited amateur boxing career (10-1). Bogdan Dinu stepped in as a late-replacement for Fres Oquendo. Dinu has less experience at the pro-level than Miller (18 fights). However, Dinu did have an amateur boxing career and won some medals at few European and World events. In 2007, Bogdan was banned for life as an amateur for shoplifting (Dinu is a cop now in Romania, the irony). In the prior year, Bogdan was stopped by Robert Helenius in the first round of the European Championship. Miller moves fairly well and has good speed for his size. He uses a high guard leaving his body exposed but he seems to take a good shot and is hard to move backwards. In his fight with Washington, he moved forward constantly, taking some heavy leather (I think he was briefly staggered in the 1st round but recovered quickly) before wearing down Washington to a referee stoppage at the beginning of the ninth round. Miller doesn't appear to have huge power although he does have respectable KO percentage (83%), wearing his opponents down through accumulation. I think the right description for Miller as a boxer is a pressure fighter. Bogdan Dinu has feasted on journeymen his entire career as a pro. I'm not sure I can even tell you what his best win to date is. He was a sparring partner for Anthony Joshua for his fights against Wlad Klitschko and Carlos Takam. Dinu seems to have good speed, balance and movement for a 6'5" heavyweight. His power is respectable at 14 out 18 wins coming by KO albeit against weak opposition. He has a good jab and like Miller, he seems to keep his hands up and parries shots well. Watching his fights, he passes the eye test but he hasn't been tested at this level before. Dinu also hasn't gone past six rounds as a pro, so there is no way to tell if he will have stamina in the later rounds. Although I think Miller has faded in his best three wins, they have at least gone into the later rounds. Also, Dinu is really a part-time boxer while his real occupation is a police officer; is Miller really going to lose to a guy who isn't a full-time boxer? My Bet: There are many question marks surrounding Dinu; How good can he take a shot (Helenius stopped him as an amateur)? Will his lack of experience hurt him against Miller? Can he go past six rounds? Can he handle the pressure of Miller for at least the early-to-mid rounds? Can he hurt Miller and earn his respect? Why did he shoplift and is he a kleptomaniac? [kidding] Miller is rightly the huge betting favorite and he should win here. Does he win as often as the odds indicate? Well that is the whole question surrounding gambling and assessing risk/reward. Miller is a pressure fighter and if Dinu isn't prepared to go into the later rounds, Miller should stop him. But for as highly as Miller should be regarded, he does have flaws himself. I don't think he has much power going into the later rounds if he empties the clip early. The Washington stoppage was because Washington basically stopped throwing back, it wasn't like when he was stopped by Wilder. Wach has a great chin but let's be honest, that is about all he has. He is slow as shit and easy to hit, Miller should beat that level of opponent. Duhaupas took Miller twelve rounds, having been stopped prior by Wilder and Povetkin (no shame in that). Bottom line is if you are expecting an early Miller blowout, I don't think we are going to see it. Adding everything up, this is really just a high-risk, high-reward bet. Miller has the experience at the pro level that Dinu lacks but it is entirely possible Dinu is better than expected. I'll take my chances getting +850 on Dinu. This is his one shot to get his career going and he might have the style to give Miller problems or even pull off the upset. However, this isn't like the Donaire-Burnett fight a couple weeks ago that we cashed. Donaire was a proven ex-champion albeit an old one. You can't say that about Dinu and it's entirely possible he loses here badly to Miller and fades back into Bolivian as Mike Tyson once said. So if you are going to bet this, know that you are gambling on an unknown quantity, one that is most likely going to lose. However, if Dinu pulls off the upset you will be rewarded hugely. Bogdan Dinu (+850)
Been on a monster losing streak recently. Something like 15 buyins over the last week in ~10k hands. Just about every session is a tiny winner or a big loser. Not sure if my head is on straight. Would appreciate an outside analysis of my biggest losing hands. I've left out the ones where I made mistakes I can clearly identify (there were like... 5). These are a mix of 25NL Zone and 50NL Zone, all on Ignition (so all players are anonymous). Not included here are the last 24 hours of play. They feature KK into AA about 4 times (all going all in on low-medium unconnected flops, never preflop). They also feature 2 set over sets. One where a guy 3bet small pre with 77 from the BB facing an UTG+1 raise (raise to $1, 3bet to $2). I call with 55. Flop 572, 2 diamonds. 3 way all in with a happy(ish) ending. UTG+1 binked with his nut flush draw and BB didn't get rewarded for his preflop idiocy. On to the hands. Hand 1 Pretty sure this was just a rivered 1-outer in a 430bb pot. File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032335177536766.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560230141: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/28 1:44:28 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: Small Blind ($62.32 in chips) Seat 2: Hero ($129.27 in chips) Seat 3: UTG ($33.37 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus1 ($96.22 in chips) Seat 5: UTGplus2 ($39.53 in chips) Seat 6: Dealer ($26.54 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Hero: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [KcKh] UTG: folds UTGplus1: calls $0.50 UTGplus2: folds Dealer: raises $2.03 to $2.03 Small Blind: calls $1.78 Hero: raises $8.12 to $8.62 UTGplus1: calls $8.12 Dealer: calls $6.59 Small Blind: folds *** FLOP *** [QcQhKd] Hero: bets $12.44 UTGplus1: calls $12.44 Dealer: raises $5.48 to $17.92 and is all-in Hero: calls $5.48 UTGplus1: calls $5.48 *** TURN *** [QcQhKd] [Th] Hero: bets $22.63 UTGplus1: raises $45.26 to $45.26 Hero: raises $57.47 to $102.73 and is all-in UTGplus1: calls $24.42 and is all-in *** RIVER *** [QcQhKdTh] [Qd] *** SHOW DOWN *** Hero: shows [KcKh] (a full house, Kings full of Queens) UTGplus1: shows [QsTd] (four of a kind, Queens) Dealer: shows [AsKs] (a full house, Queens full of Kings) Uncalled bet ($33.05) returned to Hero UTGplus1 collected $136.84 from side pot UTGplus1 collected $80.17 from main pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $221.01 | Rake $4.00 Board [QcQhKdThQd] Seat 1: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [9h7h] Seat 2: Hero (big blind) showed [KcKh] and lost with a full house, Kings full of Queens Seat 3: UTG mucked [2s7s] Seat 4: UTGplus1 showed [QsTd] and won ($217.01) with four of a kind, Queens Seat 5: UTGplus2 mucked [7dTc] Seat 6: Dealer (button) showed [AsKs] and lost with a full house, Queens full of Kings Hand 2 - Genuinely confused re: what to do in this spot. Squeezing is prevalent at this stake and the 3bet was pretty huge. I figured the shove looks more like AK and if I called the 3bet, I couldn't fold non-overcard flops after putting that much in, but shoving them would scare off all of the hands I beat. Calling would risk overcards on the turn/river. No good options if I call the 3bet here. A 4bet of any size commits me to the pot anyway. Might as well rep AK and hope to get called by worse. File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032336425354875.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560891368: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/29 17:12:45 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #5 is the button Seat 1: Big Blind ($62.41 in chips) Seat 2: Hero ($60.13 in chips) Seat 3: UTGplus1 ($80.67 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus2 ($29 in chips) Seat 5: Dealer ($104.97 in chips) Seat 6: Small Blind ($44.50 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [QhQs] Hero: raises $1.50 to $1.50 UTGplus1: calls $1.50 UTGplus2: folds Dealer: raises $7.75 to $7.75 Small Blind: folds Big Blind: folds Hero: raises $52.38 to $60.13 and is all-in UTGplus1: folds Dealer: calls $52.38 *** FLOP *** [JcJhKs] *** TURN *** [JcJhKs] [4d] *** RIVER *** [JcJhKs4d] [2h] *** SHOW DOWN *** Hero: shows [QhQs] (two pair, Queens and Jacks) Dealer: shows [AhAd] (two pair, Aces and Jacks) Dealer collected $118.51 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $122.51 | Rake $4.00 Board [JcJhKs4d2h] Seat 1: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [8h7d] Seat 2: Hero showed [QhQs] and lost with two pair, Queens and Jacks Seat 3: UTGplus1 mucked [6s4s] Seat 4: UTGplus2 mucked [5dTs] Seat 5: Dealer (button) showed [AhAd] and won ($118.51) with two pair, Aces and Jacks Seat 6: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [Kd3c] Hand 3 Clearly just a lost race. Not sure what this dude was thinking. Not sure if I should have gotten away vs the likely range here. 3betting in position is pretty prevalent at this stake and it looked like he could be shoving due to my apparent weakness and the dead money call in the pot. Felt like I needed to call. File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032335066258368_0.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560181878: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/27 23:58:53 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: Small Blind ($35.45 in chips) Seat 2: Big Blind ($44.38 in chips) Seat 3: UTG ($63.31 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus1 ($67.80 in chips) Seat 5: UTGplus2 ($61.02 in chips) Seat 6: Hero ($56.17 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [AcKd] UTG: folds UTGplus1: raises $1.75 to $1.75 UTGplus2: folds Hero: raises $5.50 to $5.50 Small Blind: folds Big Blind: calls $5 UTGplus1: raises $62.30 to $67.80 and is all-in Hero: calls $50.67 and is all-in Big Blind: folds *** FLOP *** [6hTc8h] *** TURN *** [6hTc8h] [Th] *** RIVER *** [6hTc8hTh] [Jc] *** SHOW DOWN *** UTGplus1: shows [JhJs] (a full house, Jacks full of Tens) Hero: shows [AcKd] (a pair of Tens) Uncalled bet ($11.63) returned to UTGplus1 UTGplus1 collected $114.09 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $118.09 | Rake $4.00 Board [6hTc8hThJc] Seat 1: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [Qh3h] Seat 2: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [2h2c] Seat 3: UTG mucked [Kc5d] Seat 4: UTGplus1 showed [JhJs] and won ($114.09) with a full house, Jacks full of Tens Seat 5: UTGplus2 mucked [6s9s] Seat 6: Hero (button) showed [AcKd] and lost with a pair of Tens Hand 4 The only hand that made any sense for him to have here was 99. AK is likely to have 3bet pre, and if it didn't, isn't looking to raise the turn, especially when he didn't raise the flop. Outside of quad 2's and MAYYYYBE A2s, the 2 isn't in his range, and would have probably raised the flop. 99 for the turned boat is the only thing that beats me that makes sense. I also think there are a fair number of bluffs in his range. Unfortunately, it's exactly what he had. File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_20180203233644330259.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560900548: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/29 17:39:06 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #5 is the button Seat 1: Big Blind ($84.84 in chips) Seat 2: UTG ($50.29 in chips) Seat 3: Hero ($52.52 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus2 ($62.45 in chips) Seat 5: Dealer ($128.94 in chips) Seat 6: Small Blind ($76.14 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [JhQh] UTG: folds Hero: raises $1.50 to $1.50 UTGplus2: folds Dealer: folds Small Blind: calls $1.25 Big Blind: folds *** FLOP *** [2hKh2d] Small Blind: checks Hero: bets $2.26 Small Blind: calls $2.26 *** TURN *** [2hKh2d] [9s] Small Blind: checks Hero: bets $5.42 Small Blind: raises $14.82 to $14.82 Hero: calls $9.40 *** RIVER *** [2hKh2d9s] [Js] Small Blind: bets $37.66 Hero: calls $33.94 and is all-in *** SHOW DOWN *** Small Blind: shows [9c9d] (a full house, Nines full of Deuces) Hero: Mucks [JhQh] (Two pair) Uncalled bet ($3.72) returned to Small Blind Small Blind collected $101.54 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $105.54 | Rake $4.00 Board [2hKh2d9sJs] Seat 1: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [4hAs] Seat 2: UTG mucked [Ks4d] Seat 3: Hero mucked [JhQh] Seat 4: UTGplus2 mucked [Qd8s] Seat 5: Dealer (button) mucked [7d2s] Seat 6: Small Blind (small blind) showed [9c9d] and won ($101.54) with a full house, Nines full of Deuces Hand 5 The only hands that make sense here that beat me, given the preflop raise OOP and the bet sizing, are JJ-AA. I've seen people go crazy aggro with whiffs plenty of times, so I can't limit him to just that. Can we fold this TPTK? File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032335066258368_0.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560186439: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/28 0:08:18 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #3 is the button Seat 1: UTGplus1 ($91.74 in chips) Seat 2: UTGplus2 ($26.80 in chips) Seat 3: Dealer ($36.82 in chips) Seat 4: Small Blind ($97.52 in chips) Seat 5: Hero ($50 in chips) Seat 6: UTG ($47.56 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Hero: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [AhJs] UTG: calls $0.50 UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: folds Dealer: folds Small Blind: raises $1.75 to $2 Hero: calls $1.50 UTG: folds *** FLOP *** [6d3cJh] Small Blind: bets $4 Hero: calls $4 *** TURN *** [6d3cJh] [3d] Small Blind: bets $8.25 Hero: calls $8.25 *** RIVER *** [6d3cJh3d] [7c] Small Blind: bets $83.27 and is all-in Hero: calls $35.75 and is all-in *** SHOW DOWN *** Small Blind: shows [KdKh] (two pair, Kings and Threes) Hero: Mucks [AhJs] (Two pair) Uncalled bet ($47.52) returned to Small Blind Small Blind collected $96.5 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $100.5 | Rake $4.00 Board [6d3cJh3d7c] Seat 1: UTGplus1 mucked [7sJc] Seat 2: UTGplus2 mucked [6c9h] Seat 3: Dealer (button) mucked [5d9c] Seat 4: Small Blind (small blind) showed [KdKh] and won ($96.5) with two pair, Kings and Threes Seat 5: Hero (big blind) mucked [AhJs] Seat 6: UTG mucked [3s8s] Hand 6 A clear screw-up not 3betting preflop. No need to comment there. The question becomes: can we get away from this one on the flop in a blind vs blind situation? File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032337040357952.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3561258110: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/30 12:46:17 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: Small Blind ($57.96 in chips) Seat 2: Hero ($49.89 in chips) Seat 3: UTG ($96.47 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus1 ($74.80 in chips) Seat 5: UTGplus2 ($37.17 in chips) Seat 6: Dealer ($49.34 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Hero: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [AhAd] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: folds Dealer: folds Small Blind: raises $1.25 to $1.50 Hero: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [8dTd4d] Small Blind: bets $1.50 Hero: raises $7.50 to $7.50 Small Blind: raises $16 to $17.50 Hero: raises $30.89 to $48.39 and is all-in Small Blind: calls $30.89 *** TURN *** [8dTd4d] [Qh] *** RIVER *** [8dTd4dQh] [3c] *** SHOW DOWN *** Small Blind: shows [Jd5d] (a flush, Jack high) Hero: shows [AhAd] (a pair of Aces) Small Blind collected $95.78 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $99.78 | Rake $4.00 Board [8dTd4dQh3c] Seat 1: Small Blind (small blind) showed [Jd5d] and won ($95.78) with a flush, Jack high Seat 2: Hero (big blind) showed [AhAd] and lost with a pair of Aces Seat 3: UTG mucked [Kh7h] Seat 4: UTGplus1 mucked [5hKd] Seat 5: UTGplus2 mucked [8c9h] Seat 6: Dealer (button) mucked [8sJh] Hand 7 Seriously, I have no idea why people love going berserk with JJ. Any way to dodge this? File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032336578118076.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3561261277: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/30 13:00:16 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: Small Blind ($77.23 in chips) Seat 2: Hero ($59.13 in chips) Seat 3: UTG ($42.20 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus1 ($51 in chips) Seat 5: UTGplus2 ($60.66 in chips) Seat 6: Dealer ($49.80 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Hero: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [KhAd] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: folds Dealer: raises $1.50 to $1.50 Small Blind: folds Hero: raises $5.25 to $5.75 Dealer: raises $16 to $17.50 Hero: raises $41.63 to $59.13 and is all-in Dealer: calls $32.30 and is all-in *** FLOP *** [6s4h4c] *** TURN *** [6s4h4c] [2h] *** RIVER *** [6s4h4c2h] [2c] *** SHOW DOWN *** Hero: shows [KhAd] (two pair, Fours and Deuces) Dealer: shows [JhJs] (two pair, Jacks and Fours) Uncalled bet ($9.33) returned to Hero Dealer collected $95.85 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $99.85 | Rake $4.00 Board [6s4h4c2h2c] Seat 1: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [Kc2s] Seat 2: Hero (big blind) showed [KhAd] and lost with two pair, Fours and Deuces Seat 3: UTG mucked [TsJd] Seat 4: UTGplus1 mucked [8c5d] Seat 5: UTGplus2 mucked [6c5s] Seat 6: Dealer (button) showed [JhJs] and won ($95.85) with two pair, Jacks and Fours Hand 8 Pretty sure I should have been able to get away from this one vs the 4bet. Then again, with the JJ action we've seen so far... (Also, at 50NL Zone, the concept of a 4bet bluff has made its way into the player pool, so he's not always holding). File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032335066258368_0.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560180506: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/27 23:56:08 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #1 is the button Seat 1: Dealer ($56.40 in chips) Seat 2: Small Blind ($37.44 in chips) Seat 3: Hero ($50 in chips) Seat 4: UTG ($68.13 in chips) Seat 5: UTGplus1 ($57.66 in chips) Seat 6: UTGplus2 ($111.31 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Hero: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [KhAh] UTG: folds UTGplus1: raises $1.50 to $1.50 UTGplus2: folds Dealer: folds Small Blind: folds Hero: raises $5.25 to $5.75 UTGplus1: raises $10.50 to $12 Hero: raises $38.00 to $50.00 and is all-in UTGplus1: calls $38 *** FLOP *** [QdKc2d] *** TURN *** [QdKc2d] [9s] *** RIVER *** [QdKc2d9s] [Ts] *** SHOW DOWN *** Hero: shows [KhAh] (a pair of Kings) UTGplus1: shows [AcAd] (a pair of Aces) UTGplus1 collected $96.25 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $100.25 | Rake $4.00 Board [QdKc2d9sTs] Seat 1: Dealer (button) mucked [6d3h] Seat 2: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [Qh2c] Seat 3: Hero (big blind) showed [KhAh] and lost with a pair of Kings Seat 4: UTG mucked [5dJh] Seat 5: UTGplus1 showed [AcAd] and won ($96.25) with a pair of Aces Seat 6: UTGplus2 mucked [5h4s] Hand 9 We have a set with one PSB left on the river. Can we fold? (I know my turn bet sizing was entirely too low, we can ignore that part). File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032335338399833_0.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560362083: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/28 11:57:10 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: UTGplus2 ($24.83 in chips) Seat 2: Dealer ($73.02 in chips) Seat 3: Hero ($52.03 in chips) Seat 4: Big Blind ($7.69 in chips) Seat 5: UTG ($49.75 in chips) Seat 6: UTGplus1 ($37.59 in chips) Hero: posts small blind $0.25 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [6h6d] UTG: raises $1.50 to $1.50 UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: folds Dealer: folds Hero: calls $1.25 Big Blind: folds *** FLOP *** [6sQh4h] Hero: checks UTG: bets $2 Hero: raises $6.50 to $6.50 UTG: calls $4.50 *** TURN *** [6sQh4h] [5s] Hero: bets $9.67 UTG: calls $9.67 *** RIVER *** [6sQh4h5s] [Ah] Hero: bets $34.36 and is all-in UTG: calls $32.08 and is all-in *** SHOW DOWN *** Hero: shows [6h6d] (three of a kind, Sixs) UTG: shows [KhJh] (a flush, Ace high) Uncalled bet ($2.28) returned to Hero UTG collected $96 from pot Table deposit $50 *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $100 | Rake $4.00 Board [6sQh4h5sAh] Seat 1: UTGplus2 mucked [3dQs] Seat 2: Dealer (button) mucked [8s5c] Seat 3: Hero (small blind) showed [6h6d] and lost with three of a kind, Sixes Seat 4: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [Jd6c] Seat 5: UTG showed [KhJh] and won ($96) with a flush, Ace high Seat 6: UTGplus1 mucked [3cQd] Hand 10 We're sitting on JJ with a low flop that gives the ace a wheel draw. Villain (who was preflop raiser) checkraises and shoves turn. Can we get away? File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032336262209318.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560796789: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/29 11:18:16 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: Hero ($55.09 in chips) Seat 2: Dealer ($67.08 in chips) Seat 3: Small Blind ($16.78 in chips) Seat 4: Big Blind ($60.52 in chips) Seat 5: UTG ($27.46 in chips) Seat 6: UTGplus1 ($38.18 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [JdJh] UTG: folds UTGplus1: raises $1.75 to $1.75 Hero: calls $1.75 Dealer: folds Small Blind: folds Big Blind: folds *** FLOP *** [4s2h3s] UTGplus1: checks Hero: bets $2.48 UTGplus1: raises $11.69 to $11.69 Hero: calls $9.21 *** TURN *** [4s2h3s] [7d] UTGplus1: bets $24.74 and is all-in Hero: calls $24.74 *** RIVER *** [4s2h3s7d] [Qh] *** SHOW DOWN *** Hero: shows [JdJh] (a pair of Jacks) UTGplus1: shows [AcAd] (a pair of Aces) UTGplus1 collected $73.26 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $77.11 | Rake $3.85 Board [4s2h3s7dQh] Seat 1: Hero showed [JdJh] and lost with a pair of Jacks Seat 2: Dealer (button) mucked [9c4h] Seat 3: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [5d8d] Seat 4: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [7cQs] Seat 5: UTG mucked [Tc7h] Seat 6: UTGplus1 showed [AcAd] and won ($73.26) with a pair of Aces Hand 11 Villain (who called a preflop 2.5x raise) mindonks on the flop, then 3bets. Proceeds to fire vs us with 2nd pair. All draws brick, no overs, and the top pair goes trips on the river. No hands whatsoever make sense except for (kinda) lower sets. Can we get away? File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032336532266297.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560995239: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/29 21:20:23 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #4 is the button Seat 1: UTG ($91.91 in chips) Seat 2: UTGplus1 ($40.50 in chips) Seat 3: UTGplus2 ($59.34 in chips) Seat 4: Hero ($51.37 in chips) Seat 5: Small Blind ($23.30 in chips) Seat 6: Big Blind ($85.10 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [9h8s] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: folds Hero: raises $1.23 to $1.23 Small Blind: folds Big Blind: calls $0.73 *** FLOP *** [8dTc4c] Big Blind: bets $0.50 Hero: raises $1.81 to $1.81 Big Blind: raises $2.62 to $3.12 Hero: calls $1.31 *** TURN *** [8dTc4c] [5s] Big Blind: checks Hero: bets $6.38 Big Blind: calls $6.38 *** RIVER *** [8dTc4c5s] [Th] Big Blind: bets $20 Hero: calls $20 *** SHOW DOWN *** Big Blind: shows [TdKc] (three of a kind, Tens) Hero: Mucks [9h8s] (Two pair) Big Blind collected $58.63 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $61.71 | Rake $3.08 Board [8dTc4c5sTh] Seat 1: UTG mucked [3h6c] Seat 2: UTGplus1 mucked [QcJs] Seat 3: UTGplus2 mucked [4h2c] Seat 4: Hero (button) mucked [9h8s] Seat 5: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [Ad6s] Seat 6: Big Blind (big blind) showed [TdKc] and won ($58.63) with three of a kind, Tens Hand 12 Flop and turn plays were exploiting a standard fishy line I often see. On the river, I don't suppose there's any chance we find a fold, eh? File: BovadaHandHistory_Holdem_NL_201802032336073742117.txt PokerStars Zoom Hand #3560474959: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/28 17:35:59 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #5 is the button Seat 1: Big Blind ($25 in chips) Seat 2: UTG ($71.87 in chips) Seat 3: UTGplus1 ($38.64 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus2 ($42.09 in chips) Seat 5: Hero ($118.75 in chips) Seat 6: Small Blind ($24.75 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [QdJd] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: folds Hero: raises $1 to $1 Small Blind: calls $0.75 Big Blind: calls $0.50 *** FLOP *** [2d6cAs] Small Blind: bets $1.50 Big Blind: folds Hero: raises $4.25 to $4.25 Small Blind: calls $2.75 *** TURN *** [2d6cAs] [Kd] Small Blind: checks Hero: bets $7.43 Small Blind: calls $7.43 *** RIVER *** [2d6cAsKd] [Td] Small Blind: bets $12.07 and is all-in Hero: calls $12.07 *** SHOW DOWN *** Small Blind: shows [Ad7d] (a flush, Ace high) Hero: Mucks [QdJd] (Flush) Small Blind collected $47.98 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $50.5 | Rake $2.52 Board [2d6cAsKdTd] Seat 1: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [Qs4s] Seat 2: UTG mucked [8dJs] Seat 3: UTGplus1 mucked [3dJc] Seat 4: UTGplus2 mucked [Qh4d] Seat 5: Hero (button) mucked [QdJd] Seat 6: Small Blind (small blind) showed [Ad7d] and won ($47.98) with a flush, Ace high Hand 13 TPTK in minraised 4 way pot. SB leads, I call. Turn comes an overcard and river a (mostly) brick. Vast majority of draws miss. Can we fold the river? ($0.25/$0.50) - 2018/01/28 13:36:36 Table '#1210' 6-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: Small Blind ($23.48 in chips) Seat 2: Hero ($172.85 in chips) Seat 3: UTG ($51.72 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus1 ($21.14 in chips) Seat 5: UTGplus2 ($109.84 in chips) Seat 6: Dealer ($67.43 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Hero: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [9dAd] UTG: raises $1 to $1 UTGplus1: calls $1 UTGplus2: folds Dealer: folds Small Blind: calls $0.75 Hero: calls $0.50 *** FLOP *** [6h9h3s] Small Blind: bets $2 Hero: calls $2 UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds *** TURN *** [6h9h3s] [Jd] Small Blind: bets $5.50 Hero: calls $5.50 *** RIVER *** [6h9h3sJd] [2s] Small Blind: bets $14.98 and is all-in Hero: calls $14.98 *** SHOW DOWN *** Small Blind: shows [Js9s] (two pair, Jacks and Nines) Hero: Mucks [9dAd] (One pair) Small Blind collected $46.52 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $48.96 | Rake $2.44 Board [6h9h3sJd2s] Seat 1: Small Blind (small blind) showed [Js9s] and won ($46.52) with two pair, Jacks and Nines Seat 2: Hero (big blind) mucked [9dAd] Seat 3: UTG mucked [8cQc] Seat 4: UTGplus1 mucked [KcQs] Seat 5: UTGplus2 mucked [Ks3h] Seat 6: Dealer (button) mucked [Kh5s] Hand 14 We float the flop vs a halfstack raiser. Turn a nice draw and overs with a good SPR vs a half pot bet. River brings home the draw, pairing the board. We face a shove. Can we fold? Seat 1: UTGplus1 ($49.25 in chips) Seat 2: UTGplus2 ($22.86 in chips) Seat 3: Hero ($49.50 in chips) Seat 4: Small Blind ($105.99 in chips) Seat 5: Big Blind ($33.69 in chips) Seat 6: UTG ($52.13 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [JhQh] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: raises $2 to $2 Hero: calls $2 Small Blind: folds Big Blind: folds *** FLOP *** [4d2d6h] UTGplus2: bets $2 Hero: calls $2 *** TURN *** [4d2d6h] [9h] UTGplus2: bets $4.50 Hero: calls $4.50 *** RIVER *** [4d2d6h9h] [2h] UTGplus2: bets $14.36 and is all-in Hero: calls $14.36 *** SHOW DOWN *** UTGplus2: shows [2s2c] (four of a kind, Deuces) Hero: Mucks [JhQh] (Flush) UTGplus2 collected $44.15 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $46.47 | Rake $2.32 Board [4d2d6h9h2h] Seat 1: UTGplus1 mucked [Ah6d] Seat 2: UTGplus2 showed [2s2c] and won ($44.15) with four of a kind, Deuces Seat 3: Hero (button) mucked [JhQh] Seat 4: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [9s6c] Seat 5: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [4sJs] Seat 6: UTG mucked [5d4h] Hand 15 We've decided our hand is probably bad on the turn when villain checks (putting him directly on an overpair lower than AA), but we get the perfect runout to bluff the crap out of him. Unfortunately, villain is a COMPLETE station. Seat 1: UTG ($14.81 in chips) Seat 2: UTGplus1 ($49.50 in chips) Seat 3: UTGplus2 ($26.47 in chips) Seat 4: Hero ($90.29 in chips) Seat 5: Small Blind ($53.22 in chips) Seat 6: Big Blind ($26.54 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.25 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.50 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [7d7s] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: raises $1.50 to $1.50 Hero: calls $1.50 Small Blind: folds Big Blind: folds *** FLOP *** [4c3s2c] UTGplus2: bets $3 Hero: calls $3 *** TURN *** [4c3s2c] [Ad] UTGplus2: checks Hero: bets $5.39 UTGplus2: calls $5.39 *** RIVER *** [4c3s2cAd] [8c] UTGplus2: checks Hero: bets $12.82 UTGplus2: calls $12.82 *** SHOW DOWN *** Hero: shows [7d7s] (a pair of Sevens) UTGplus2: shows [9d9c] (a pair of Nines) UTGplus2 collected $43.87 from pot Table deposit $50 *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $46.17 | Rake $2.30 Board [4c3s2cAd8c] Seat 1: UTG mucked [4d3h] Seat 2: UTGplus1 mucked [Js2h] Seat 3: UTGplus2 showed [9d9c] and won ($43.87) with a pair of Nines Seat 4: Hero (button) showed [7d7s] and lost with a pair of Sevens Seat 5: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [Tc4h] Seat 6: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [6h8d] Hand 16 We're at 25NL now. Blind vs blind. Clearly I get it in good and get sucked out on, so that's not the question. Question is, do we play this any differently vs this guy's likely range, or is stuffing it in pre the best move? Seat 1: Small Blind ($63.18 in chips) Seat 2: Hero ($35.42 in chips) Seat 3: UTG ($25.27 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus1 ($39.75 in chips) Seat 5: UTGplus2 ($50.06 in chips) Seat 6: Dealer ($34.34 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.10 Hero: posts big blind $0.25 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [KdAh] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: folds Dealer: folds Small Blind: raises $0.75 to $0.85 Hero: raises $2.30 to $2.55 Small Blind: raises $6.90 to $7.75 Hero: raises $27.67 to $35.42 and is all-in Small Blind: calls $27.67 *** FLOP *** [3s7h9d] *** TURN *** [3s7h9d] [7c] *** RIVER *** [3s7h9d7c] [Qh] *** SHOW DOWN *** Small Blind: shows [AdQs] (two pair, Queens and Sevens) Hero: shows [KdAh] (a pair of Sevens) Small Blind collected $68.84 from pot Seat re-join *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $70.84 | Rake $2.00 Board [3s7h9d7cQh] Seat 1: Small Blind (small blind) showed [AdQs] and won ($68.84) with two pair, Queens and Sevens Seat 2: Hero (big blind) showed [KdAh] and lost with a pair of Sevens Seat 3: UTG mucked [2dQd] Seat 4: UTGplus1 mucked [Ks2c] Seat 5: UTGplus2 mucked [6dAs] Seat 6: Dealer (button) mucked [6c2h] Hand 17 Only hands that can beat us here are 55 or an 8. People love to go wild on these low paired boards. Can we get away from our AA? The few draws that did exist all bricked. Seat 1: UTGplus1 ($34.50 in chips) Seat 2: Hero ($52.55 in chips) Seat 3: Dealer ($25.92 in chips) Seat 4: Small Blind ($24.58 in chips) Seat 5: Big Blind ($25 in chips) Seat 6: UTG ($23.64 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.10 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.25 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [AhAs] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds Hero: raises $0.75 to $0.75 Dealer: folds Small Blind: folds Big Blind: calls $0.50 *** FLOP *** [5c8h8s] Big Blind: checks Hero: bets $1.04 Big Blind: raises $2.83 to $2.83 Hero: calls $1.79 *** TURN *** [5c8h8s] [3d] Big Blind: bets $4.63 Hero: calls $4.63 *** RIVER *** [5c8h8s3d] [3h] Big Blind: bets $16.79 and is all-in Hero: calls $16.79 *** SHOW DOWN *** Big Blind: shows [8cKc] (a full house, Eights full of Threes) Hero: Mucks [AhAs] (Two pair) Big Blind collected $48.1 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $50.1 | Rake $2.00 Board [5c8h8s3d3h] Seat 1: UTGplus1 mucked [5s4h] Seat 2: Hero mucked [AhAs] Seat 3: Dealer (button) mucked [9h3c] Seat 4: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [9cQh] Seat 5: Big Blind (big blind) showed [8cKc] and won ($48.1) with a full house, Eights full of Threes Seat 6: UTG mucked [8d6c] Hand 18 Cutoff limps, button raises huge, we 3bet large with AK, cutoff shoves, button folds. Action on us. The limp-shove is always AA? Or can we get away after putting in 1/4 of our stack on the 3bet? ($0.10/$0.25) - 2018/01/31 17:23:38 Table '#1209' 6-max Seat #2 is the button Seat 1: UTGplus2 ($25 in chips) Seat 2: Dealer ($34.05 in chips) Seat 3: Hero ($28.44 in chips) Seat 4: Big Blind ($35.19 in chips) Seat 5: UTG ($11.46 in chips) Seat 6: UTGplus1 ($66.26 in chips) Hero: posts small blind $0.10 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.25 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [AdKh] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: calls $0.25 Dealer: raises $1.85 to $1.85 Hero: raises $5.95 to $6.05 Big Blind: folds UTGplus2: raises $18.95 to $25.00 and is all-in Dealer: folds Hero: calls $18.95 *** FLOP *** [Ks4hQh] *** TURN *** [Ks4hQh] [Qc] *** RIVER *** [Ks4hQhQc] [3d] *** SHOW DOWN *** UTGplus2: shows [AsAh] (two pair, Aces and Queens) Hero: shows [AdKh] (two pair, Kings and Queens) UTGplus2 collected $50.1 from pot Table deposit $12.50 *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $52.1 | Rake $2.00 Board [Ks4hQhQc3d] Seat 1: UTGplus2 showed [AsAh] and won ($50.1) with two pair, Aces and Queens Seat 2: Dealer (button) mucked [5d5c] Seat 3: Hero (small blind) showed [AdKh] and lost with two pair, Kings and Queens Seat 4: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [9d3s] Seat 5: UTG mucked [3c2s] Seat 6: UTGplus1 mucked [2h9c] Hand 19 4bet pot, OOP caller, and our hand is pretty well disguised on the river. Any way to fold? Was the turn float too lose? Seat 1: Small Blind ($24.30 in chips) Seat 2: Big Blind ($25.65 in chips) Seat 3: UTG ($29.43 in chips) Seat 4: UTGplus1 ($11.25 in chips) Seat 5: UTGplus2 ($8.13 in chips) Seat 6: Hero ($31.60 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.10 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.25 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [AhKc] UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds UTGplus2: folds Hero: raises $0.50 to $0.50 Small Blind: raises $2.40 to $2.50 Big Blind: folds Hero: raises $6 to $6.50 Small Blind: calls $4 *** FLOP *** [QsJhJd] Small Blind: checks Hero: checks *** TURN *** [QsJhJd] [8d] Small Blind: bets $4.62 Hero: calls $4.62 *** RIVER *** [QsJhJd8d] [Ad] Small Blind: bets $13.18 and is all-in Hero: calls $13.18 *** SHOW DOWN *** Small Blind: shows [JsKs] (three of a kind, Jacks) Hero: Mucks [AhKc] (Two pair) Small Blind collected $46.85 from pot Seat re-join *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $48.85 | Rake $2.00 Board [QsJhJd8dAd] Seat 1: Small Blind (small blind) showed [JsKs] and won ($46.85) with three of a kind, Jacks Seat 2: Big Blind (big blind) mucked [Ts3c] Seat 3: UTG mucked [6h9h] Seat 4: UTGplus1 mucked [8sQc] Seat 5: UTGplus2 mucked [Ac8h] Seat 6: Hero (button) mucked [AhKc] Hand 20 Wettish flop vs a 70% stack. Top card paired, I beat the board's 2nd pair and block some draws. Can we do anything but shove turn? Seat 1: UTG ($10.75 in chips) Seat 2: UTGplus1 ($29.10 in chips) Seat 3: UTGplus2 ($16.26 in chips) Seat 4: Hero ($25 in chips) Seat 5: Small Blind ($27.09 in chips) Seat 6: Big Blind ($18.78 in chips) Small Blind: posts small blind $0.10 Big Blind: posts big blind $0.25 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to Hero [9s9c] UTG: raises $0.50 to $0.50 UTGplus1: raises $1.50 to $1.50 UTGplus2: folds Hero: calls $1.50 Small Blind: folds Big Blind: calls $1.25 UTG: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [8dTdTs] Big Blind: checks UTG: checks UTGplus1: checks Hero: bets $3.55 Big Blind: calls $3.55 UTG: folds UTGplus1: folds *** TURN *** [8dTdTs] [4h] Big Blind: checks Hero: bets $19.95 and is all-in Big Blind: calls $13.73 and is all-in *** RIVER *** [8dTdTs4h] [As] *** SHOW DOWN *** Hero: shows [9s9c] (two pair, Tens and Nines) Big Blind: shows [KhTh] (three of a kind, Tens) Uncalled bet ($6.22) returned to Hero Big Blind collected $38.66 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $40.66 | Rake $2.00 Board [8dTdTs4hAs] Seat 1: UTG mucked [6s7s] Seat 2: UTGplus1 mucked [AdJs] Seat 3: UTGplus2 mucked [4c5d] Seat 4: Hero (button) showed [9s9c] and lost with two pair, Tens and Nines Seat 5: Small Blind (small blind) mucked [TcQs] Seat 6: Big Blind (big blind) showed [KhTh] and won ($38.66) with three of a kind, Tens I'll call it there. Thanks if you made it this far! Looking forward to feedback.
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