Sports Betting Odds Explined - American, Fractional

What you should know about gay sex - from a future porn education star

Below is a dump of things I think gay guys should know. It’s long, heads up, because it’s thorough. Also, I am annoyingly wholesome, haha. It can be cheesy but embrace the cheese. There’s useful stuff on the other side.
My credentials are: - A lot of sex from ages 18 to 31. - Successful open relationship of 11+ years, despite rocky events in our lives. (Recently ended, no one’s fault.) - Currently creating an educational sex series, so this advice comes from a lot of research, thought and experience. The series will be called Pornducation and will feature me giving sex tips and making jokes while literally having sex. Made a pilot already. It turned out as fun as I thought it would be.
To be clear, this info is a work-in-progress. For instance, I haven’t yet run it all past sexual health organizations. I stand behind my advice but it’s good to assume that NO ONE’s advice is 100% accurate or 100% everything you need to know.
Here is what I have so far, much condensed. Feel free to share it yourself. I'd appreciate credit and a mention of Pornducation but that's not as important as the sharing. Enjoy!
THINGS I BELIEVE GUYS SHOULD KNOW
Important: - Everyone is surprisingly different. Every guideline has an exception. These tips are commonly applicable, though, and a good place to start. - Safety tips apply to everyone. - Advice is great but there's always a chance that it's wrong. Listen to yourself and your body first. - Where not sure if something is good or comfortable? Ask. If you ask matter-of-factly, it looks like confidence. Confidence isn’t knowing everything will go well. It’s knowing that you’ll be fine even if it goes bad. The bird doesn’t rely on the branch that might break, but on its wings. - Use moans and body motion to indicate when things feel good. Arch your back, thrust your hips, or groan, for instance. Communicating what you like increases the chances of getting more of it. - You can always say no to sex, at any point. Any point. Even the very second before sex you can say no. Even during sex, you can change your mind. This is such a strong rule that, at least in New Zealand, even if you were paid for that sex, you can stop at any point. Your body autonomy takes priority over any contract. You can also say no to certain sex acts but yes to others. You can say yes to sex acts in certain ways but say no to others. You can change your mind. It’s your body, your rules. That’s true of other people’s bodies and their rules, too, of course. Anyone who isn’t okay with that is an arsehole. - You won't be good at sex straight away, it's a skill. You'll do it imperfectly and learn, that's natural. - Wash around the head of your dick and your butthole, especially just before sex. Just use water and/or light soap. Your skin is sensitive there. - If your fingers might go inside anyone, trim them. This makes sure you won't nick anything. Freshly cut nails are sharp, though. I keep a nail-file specifically so that I can trim and blunt my nails before a guy comes around. - Go for guys you think are out of your league. You may surprise yourself. - Be kind. Not just for them but for you. It’s surprising how many times the right thing to do also benefits you. For instance, if you are nice to a lover, they may decide to try something adventurous with you because they feel they can trust you. - Be kind to yourself. Not just for you but for them. It’s surprising how many times the right thing for you also benefits others. For instance, if you set-up and enforce emotional boundaries to make sure no one takes more than you have to give? Then others can relax around you because they know they aren’t going to accidentally mess you up. - ANYTHING THAT GOES IN YOUR ARSE NEEDS A FLARED END. Arses are known to suck objects up. You wouldn’t be the first person to go to hospital because they have a cucumber way up in them. Remember: Without a base, without a trace. - Cheap dildos are a risk, too. They might be made of something that isn’t body safe. Or the dildo could be made dangerously. I've read one story of a dildo bought on Wish that had a hole in the tip, for some reason. Ants crawled in and then he put the dildo in his hole. Wasn’t a great time. Research is, uh... recommended.
Blowjobs: - No teeth. Even clipping a dick with teeth feels bad. Cover your teeth by sucking slightly, it pulls your lips over the teeth. Or pout like it's a duck face. - A dick with a foreskin is more sensitive than one without a foreskin. A blowjob can get oversensitive and unpleasant if you do too much to the head of a penis that has its foreskin. Dicks without a foreskin often prefer a lot of sensation around the head and neck of their penis. - Don't worry about making guys cum yet, sex isn't all about the orgasm. But if a guy says he's close and you want to get him there, keep doing the exact same thing. Maybe just a little more intensely. Changing it up may distract his brain away from cumming. - Deepthroating means putting the penis to your back of your mouth or even down your throat. Sometimes just to hold it there, sometimes to move it to that point and back. This feels good for the other person as it stimulates more of the penis. It’s also hot. You may find it hard to do because of your gag reflex. That’s ok. For most people, your body will reject it at least a little if you put anything at the back of your throat. But, by steadily, gently pushing yourself to go a little further each time, you can reduce that gag reflex. Some people get rid of it completely. I've heard of people practicing with a dildo. - You can give your lovers a similar feeling to deepthroating without having to deepthroat. Put a hand around the lower part of their dick and your mouth around the upper part. Bob the hand along with your mouth. - I also understand that making a fist with your thumb on the inside and clenching it will disable your gag reflex until you stop squeezing. I haven’t tried this one, though. - Moving your hand and mouth on the dick is also a good way to add variety to a blowjob, even if you can deepthroat well. Too much of the same thing can be boring. - I didn't used to like sucking dick but now I do. Don't sweat it. You don't have to do it, though it's polite to return the favour. - When you are the one GETTING a blowjob, be cautious when thrusting into someone's mouth. They won't thank you for making them gag.
Sexual Health: - STI stands for a Sexually Transmitted Infection. If someone has an STI, they may not be aware and can transmit it to you during sex. To be clear, masturbating alone will not give you an STI. Many STI’s are symptomless. They are still good to get tested for and cured, as they can have long-term health effects. Becoming infertile is one possibility. Also, something that is symptomless in you may have symptoms if you pass it along to others. - You can catch Sexually Transmitted Infections, aka STI's, from giving or receiving blowjobs. But HIV is very unlikely. The chances of oral giving you HIV is almost vanishingly small, unless you have a mouth sore or a cut. That's my understanding, at least. - Condoms can prevent STI's, but they're uncommonly used for oral because it feels different. It's up to you what you put in your body and what you consider an acceptable risk. If you decide you want oral to include condoms, that's a valid decision. Be prepared to stand your ground on it with pushy guys, though. The best way to stand your ground is to be okay to not have that sex if the other guy isn't into it. Also, decide that disappointment on the other guys’ end is their issue to deal with. There’s a lot of power in the concept, “You deal with it.” I personally don't use condoms for oral and have caught something maybe 5 times in my throat. Most of them have been in my later years. STI's are on the rise in many places. - Put the condom on like it's a rolled-up beanie. This means: Rolled up bit goes out/up, so that it unrolls down your dick easily. The other way, it's just more awkward and you might reach in and scratch up the latex with your fingernails. - If you put the condom on the wrong way first, it will have precum on it. Precum is a little bit of cum that comes out of the end of your dick when you are hard and aroused. Precum is enough to have a chance of transferring an STI. Throw the condom out and get a new one. - Anal sex has the risk of transferring HIV, so we will talk about that now. You may also have heard of AIDs, which is essentially HIV but further progressed in your body. Left untreated, HIV / AIDs can kill you. HIV can't be cured. But the good news is that nowadays HIV can be suppressed so well that tests won't pick up that you even have it. People with HIV that take their medicine correctly have totally normally lives and run no risk of transferring their HIV. As they say, undetectable means untransmittable. U = U. People who catch HIV? They actually get it from those who are newly infected and THOUGHT they didn’t have it. (HIV negative is a description of someone who doesn't have HIV, by the way. HIV positive means someone with HIV, even if it’s suppressed by medication.) But even with HIV medication, there's still a lot of social problems to navigate. Judgement, shame and out-dated laws affect HIV positive people. So, use condoms to protect yourself. - If you find out that you are HIV positive, reach out to friends and family that you trust. There are also counsellors – the organisation Ending HIV in New Zealand provides 6 free counselling sessions that centre around things like this. You may have something similar in your area. There also will be people in your area who have been dealing with this for years. Heck, you could probably go on Grindr and find someone whose profile mentions that they’re HIV positive. Ask them if they’re willing to talk, even. There are resources and support for you. Reach out. You’ll get through this, like millions of others have. - HIV can also be prevented by taking a daily pill called PrEP (also known as truvada, which is a common brand of PrEP.) If you find the idea of condom-less sex tempting, then PrEP is a good idea in case you give in. But even with PrEP, you can catch other STI's like Gonorrhea and Chlamydia. These are the most common STI's, but they're curable. (Though there are antibiotic-resistant strains in a few places.) At least in New Zealand I liken catching an STI to falling down in the street. It's embarrassing as all hell and it stings. But get up and move on, you'll eventually forget it. - There's also Herpes, which isn't curable, but you can manage breakouts. - Get tested every 3 months if you're ever having a lot of sex. Get tested at least once a year even if sex for you is infrequent. - To get tested, Google “Sexual Health Clinic” in your area or talk to your doctor. A lot of campus’ offer the option and some gay events have quick-testing sites. - It's also a good idea to use condoms even with people you trust. Catching something nasty from a partner who turns out to be cheating is a tale as old as time, honey. - Oil-based lube like Vaseline will break down a condom and make it more likely to fail. Use silicon or water-based lube. These can be found in most supermarkets, sex shops and pharmacies. People are unlikely to pay attention to your purchase, especially if you buy it with confidence.
Bottoming: - Bottoming is receiving a penis into your butt, to create pleasure for both of you. - It shouldn't hurt. Pain is your body saying to stop or slow down. Ignoring it can cause damage. Pain also teaches your body to fear bottoming, so it may clench up in the future. Don’t force your way through the pain. Stop, add more lube, try some relaxing techniques that I will list later. Go slow. If you must, you must. You’ll be far from the first. - You want to show your body that bottoming is okay and even fun. For that, make things as easy as possible, push your limits a little but listen to your body and respond appropriately. - Have an exploratory attitude to the sensations. Try things. Go with what feels good or even just what feeling you are curious about. - This is my own personal theory, but I believe that the brain LEARNS to interpret anal as something sexual. I mean, there are also a lot of physical and mental factors helping this along. Like the prostate, the huge amount on touch sensors in your sphincter and that dick is hoooooot. Also, I should note that some brains work out that anal is sex easier than others. But bottoming is still an acquired taste that many of us need to give ourselves time to acquire. - For this reason, the first time you bottom may feel weird or feel like you want to poop. For most people, after 1-3 times, that gotta-poop feeling stops happening forever, more-or-less. Your brain works out the difference between in and out. If you bottom and feel you want to poop, feel free to get off and use the toilet if that’s more comfortable. Play around if you feel comfortable with that. The feeling may just go away. - Getting on a dick too fast can feel like getting kicked in the nuts. - Only go as hard as you want. - Don't expect to bottom perfectly, especially not the first time. - Use lots of lube, always. - Use a condom to prevent catching STI's. If you use a condom the first time you do anal, you’re much more likely to do so in future. - Each time you bottom, let the dick in slowly once. After that, your butt will gradually warm up and you can change positions and be entered easier, generally. - Bottoming is easier if you warm up your butt first with a finger. Start by putting a finger in a little, then wait until your sphincter has adjusted. Put a bit more of the finger in. Wait until your sphincter relaxes. Put a bit more finger in, then wait, etc. Repeat until the whole finger is in. Have a play around, maybe. Then maybe do the same with another finger. See what you feel you need, it’s fairly variable. THEN do the same with the dick. Put it in a little, wait, in a little, wait, etc. Dicks are often thicker, so it will probably take longer to adjust to than your fingers did. That’s okay. - To repeat: Listen to your body, particularly if you feel pain. That's your body's warning system. - Some things that you can do to help ease the finger or dick in: Notice where your body is tense and relax it, if you can. Shoulders, for instance. Breathe deeply. Make out, to give your brain something else to focus on. Remember that you can stop if you want to. Apparently, pushing your sphincter out like you're pooping can help, I haven't tried. - Easiest angle of entry is to point the dick towards your belly button. (This is because of the angle of the Pubo-Rectal Sling, if you’re an anatomy nerd. That’s the main thing that pulls tight when your butt clenches to protect itself.) - A good first sex position is the Cowgirl. The top lies down, face up. You face him and kneel with your legs on either side of his body. Shuffle back and forth until you find the best spot for the dick to line up with your butt. When and if you’re ready, put it in a little. This can take a few tries and be kind of awkward, even for experts. This position has two advantages: The dick points at your belly button, which we established is the best angle. This position gives you control of how fast you're sitting on the dick. - Using a dildo before the top turns up may be a good way to warm up your butt and to give you confidence. That’s what I often do. - Nearly every guy will lose their erection during sex at some point in their life. Maybe it takes too long to get into your butt. (No one’s fault, you each can only do what you can do at that point in time.) Maybe they got distracted. Maybe they got nervous or often get nervous. Shaming them for it helps no one. Tell them that it’s okay, that you understand. Offer to stop for a bit, try again later, or ask how you can help. I guarantee that they will appreciate it. I also guarantee that they will be WAAAY more likely to get that boner back. So be kind. It’s in your best interests. - Some people never enjoy bottoming, no matter what they try. Or never enjoy topping. Or either. That's perfectly fine. You are who you are, I've never found any good in beating my head against that fact. But you may also never have had the right situation or the right advice. - At this point I don't have a troubleshooting-your-butt advise section. But it’s good to explore what might be holding you up. One example is: If you have trouble bottoming, it may come down to your attitude. If you think about how much it could hurt as you sit on a dick, of course your body will clench up. If you instead train your brain to think of dick as something potentially very nice, your body may respond better. (Though bullshitting your body won't work. You'd need to make a deal with yourself that if it DOES feel bad at all, you'll stop. And here’s another thought: You may need to let go of the expectation that you will never feel pain, at least a little. Pain is a warning signal and it’s okay, even useful for it to happen. Ignoring pain is what I advise against.) - Bottoming gets easier the more you do it. But if you don’t do it for a while, you may lose that progress and must build it up again. It’s the same as, say, building flexibility in your legs. Doing the splits gets easier the more you practice. But, if you stop practicing, it gets harder and harder again. You can make bottoming easier later with semi-regular practice with a dildo. You don't have to, of course. Find what's right for your body and for your lifestyle. - Reminder: Anything that goes in your arse needs a flared end. Arses are known to suck objects up. Without a base, without a trace.
Butt Cleanliness: - Once in a while, a dick will come out with poop on it. Fact of life, don't sweat it. You can wipe it off and continue or get a new condom or stop all together. Whatever you're both cool with. - Honestly? Guys get desensitized to poop. So even if you’re mortified, the other guy really might not be. - Treat poop-strike like no big deal and it most likely won’t be. Like I say earlier, people follow your lead. - Invest in some brown towels specifically for anal sex. Stains show up less. - Douching, (also known as enemas,) can really reduce the chance of poop. That’s where you wash your butt passage out by putting water in, then expelling it into a toilet. Repeat until the water comes out clear. - I won’t go into how to douche in detail, there are guides online. Use one. - My big warning with douching is: It's possible to not fully relax your sphincter and you end up keeping water in there without knowing. Then when you relax for the dick, it comes out. Goosh. It’s never happened to me, probably won’t happen to you. But to avoid it, give yourself plenty of time on the toilet. Wait, watch a video, notice how your body is feeling. Build up experience. - You don't have to douche. I don’t, too many guys say they’ll turn up but don’t. And, honestly, I find an unclean dick is not that common anyway. - Fibre. Instead of douching, (or in addition it,) you can eat a lot of fibre. This makes your poop more solid and less likely to stick to the dick. Fibre also makes your poop less likely to be in the close part of your butt passage. Metamucil or Psyllium Husk are common sources of fibre. - If I’m worried about being clean that day, I tend to just use a dildo beforehand, honestly. This warms my butt up for play, as discussed. But it also troubleshoots my hole, haha. Uncleanliness happens to the dildo, leaving my passage more hospitable for later guests. - Douching too often can harm your gut bacteria and dry your passage out. - Also be aware, douching isn't a fool-proof solution to poop-strike. Nothing is. - Some guys expect you to douche, but in my opinion, that's on them to tell you. Hopefully nicely, like, "Do you prefer to douche? ... Oh, I usually feel more comfortable if the guy has douched." Like I say, in my experience, poop on their dick doesn't happen all that often even without douching. Depends on the guy, though.
Topping: - Read everything in the bottoming section, such as how you should always use condoms and lube. Put a finger in them first, a bit at a time, or get them to. You should be using all the other advice in that section, too. - If you only top, you may have no idea how much work goes into bottoming, or how sore it can be. - I recommend bottoming some time, even just to see how well you can. Even if you decide it isn’t your thing. Knowing how it feels will make you a better top. Try it a few times until you can do it comfortably, the first time probably won’t feel like how bottoming usually would feel for you. - Listen to the bottom. Ask if he's ok. Avoid pressuring him. - Go ahead and ask for help to get your dick hard again, mid-sex. It’s common to get distracted, nervous or for things to take too long and your dick to go down. It’s not a big deal. If they make it a big deal, they may not be someone you want to be around anyway. - Often, people have difficulty finding the bottom’s hole with their dick. A common mistake is to aim too high and push a bit harder. You run the risk of popping in too quickly and hurting the bottom. Bottom’s pick up on this chance, so they can tighten up involuntarily- the opposite of what you want. To avoid this, when I top, I feel out where the hole is with my fingers. I'll watch the dick go in. If guys often say that you're too high, maybe you can aim lower than you’d think. Try a different position or ask the bottom to put the dick in himself. You won’t lose points or anything for it, haha. Obviously, experience and practice help, too. It's ok to mess up or even make a fool of yourself, that's how you learn for next time! The only way, really. Certainly the main way that you can’t skip. - If you find it hard to enjoy topping or to cum from topping, look at how you masturbate. I typically wank with the tips of my fingers and thumb, rather than circling the shaft. Some guys wank really hard and fast. In that and other cases, your brain isn’t used to the sensations an butt provides. Try wanking with lube and a medium-soft, circled grip. After a while, you may find your dick has acquired a taste for arse. - A block in the way of enjoying topping may also be mental. Look into the Sexual Anxiety section. I don’t have a topping-specific approach thought out yet, but it would be based heavily on the tips here, under Sexual Anxiety.
Safety/Consent: - I’ve met a lot of wonderful people in gay bars and clubs. They’re a place you can let your guard down in some ways and be as gay as you want. But it’s not in your best interests to treat them as a completely safe space. - People may put drugs in your drink, in order to take advantage of you. Don't drink from anything that's been left unattended. If you start to feel funny in anyway, you may have been drugged and should alert your friends and/or the bar staff. Feeling funny may include light-headed, drunker than you would expect, sleepy or many other things. It is better to be safe than sorry. - Casual assaults are surprisingly normalized. A lot of us don't even think about it anymore. Like, sometimes a guy will grab your butt as they go past without permission. Sometimes even just reach directly into your pants, without asking. It sucks. I'm sorry about that. I'm not sure what advice to give about it, except to talk about any feelings with people you trust, no matter how small what happened seems. And if you’re someone who does this, please keep your hands to yourself. It can be more damaging than you realize. Especially for people who have been through violence - sexual or otherwise. - The clubs can also feel like a jungle - all drugs and sex and you’re treated almost like meat. Which, if you’re looking for that, great! But if you’re coming out of high school and expecting to be embraced and supported by the community? It just may not happen that way. Again, I’m sorry. Look for places like Gay-oriented sports events or volunteering for a more wholesome community, I would say. Some bars may be wholesome, I can’t speak for all of them. - Gay clubs can also be cliquey, where no one will talk to the new people. - People who look unapproachable might actually be quite approachable, on the flipside. - First time at a baclub, it may be best to go with friends that you trust. - Drink water between alcohol when out at bars. Eat food and know your alcohol limit. Pride in how wasted you get is for beginners. - Best to find out what your alcohol limit is by drinking with friends or family at home first. This is important because very drunk people can be taken advantage of. They can also die, frankly. - Overdose from alcohol is a thing. Or falling ovefalling asleep on the road. Be careful out there. - Most of the advice for drinking applies to taking drugs, too. (Though ecstasy and possibly other drugs can make you drink TOO MUCH water and harm yourself.) Do research before taking anything. I’m not condoning or shaming drug use here. But if you take any, take it in a safe place, with people you trust. Also, read the later section in this dump on drug use. - Consent is something that people think they know but it can be more nuanced than you assume. And it’s VERY important. I like the Tea Rule. If you wouldn't give tea to this person in this situation, don't do anything sexual to them either. They’re asleep? You wouldn’t give tea to a sleeping person, so no sex. They agreed to have tea earlier but changed their mind? You wouldn’t pressure them or force them to drink tea, so no sex. They want tea but not milk? Give them tea without milk! (In the metaphor, that’s having sex but not doing whatever sex act counts as milk.) Also, tea can be very hot. So, if they are too drunk or too young, they might not know this and scald their tongue. Likewise, young or drunk people can’t decide if they’re emotionally ready for anything sexual. No tea, no sex. - Even BDSM/rape fantasies stick to the Tea Rule. What is going to happen is generally agreed to beforehand. For most people, kinky sex is like a play. The submissive person is the scriptwriter. The aggressive/dominant person is the director who decides what happens within that script. Maybe pushing the boundaries a bit, but depends on the people. Again, best to talk about it. - People get boners and even cum during assaults. That doesn't make it wanted. It's an automatic response. - Don’t make false rape allegations. These make real claims harder to believe. They also ruin lives. False claims ruin lives more than anyone would want, even if they wanted revenge. Career destroyed. Everyone they know stops talking to them. Their trust in any future lovers is shattered. Even when it comes out later that the claim was fake, these effects remain. Seriously. The destroyed life doesn’t come back together after the allegations are dropped. Don't ever fake such claims. - That said, real rape allegations are MUCH more common. Like, the vast, vast majority. If a friend tells you that they were assaulted, it's statistically a VASTLY safer bet to believe them. - At this point, I don’t have advice ready for if you are ever the victim of an assault. I’ve got no doubt that there are amazing resources online, though. Look it up. Find the subreddits where people discuss it with each other. Reach out to those, plus friends and loved ones you trust. There’s a whole world just waiting to support the hell out of you.
Kissing: - As with anything, kissing will improve with practise. - Lead with the lips. My opinion is: lips should touch at least a little before tongue. Like, all the time. It builds anticipation and avoids odd surprises. - Well-cared-for lips feel nicer. I used to deal with dry lips but the best solution I found is to have lip balm in my pocket all the time. I put it on my lips when they feel a bit dry, which is maybe once an hour? Fairly often. But you work out what works for you. - Pecking too much can be weird, it doesn’t give much sensation. - Mix it up. Peck just a little, maybe. Push lips together for a bit. Bring the tongue in. Back to just touching lips every so often. Mixing it up is great advice for any sex act. - Kissing the edges of their lips or other uncommon zones can be great but should be done in moderation. It’s more of a thing to add variety than fun on its own, in my opinion. Play it teasing and sensual if you want to do this. - I think hovering just before touching lips together is underrated. Tease them a little. Make them come get it. Use this rarely, though. It’s easy to tease someone so that it gets a little annoying. - Start small and low-intensity. Build up to passionate. - Use pacing, like is described below, under All-applicable Tips.
Rimjobs: - A rimjob is where you use your tongue and mouth to pleasurably stimulate someone’s sphincter. - Obviously, the receiver of a rimjob should make sure they are very clean. - Again, this is all my opinion: A good rimjob is all about teasing. Building anticipation. I'm not big on them in general but I DEFINITELY don't enjoy it if they go straight for the hole with their tongue. I lose all sensitivity; I stop feeling it. Play around the edge, dip in. Build up to applying more tongue to the hole, then go back to the edge. - That said, I’ve seen some people really enjoy their butt getting eaten like someone’s life depended on it. Everyone is different.
All-applicable tips: - Use pacing. Pacing like movies use. Google, "Interest curve, Star Wars." The intensity of what's happening on screen starts out high to grab interest, drops down, then goes up a little, down, up a little more, down, etc until it reaches the climax. It’s a classic, excellent wayto get the most enjoyment out of an audience member. Every sex act is improved by applying this. Same with applying pacing to the sex as a whole. Don't feel too much of a slave to this, but I definitely became a better lover when I learnt about the pacing in Star Wars, no lie. (It comes down to how human brains work. Specifically, the Law of Diminishing Returns.) - Like I said, mix it up. Variety stops someone from getting bored of what you’re doing. They stay keyed in and feeling pleasure. - Like I’ve mentioned in other sections: Build anticipation. Going straight for the most pleasurable thing is, ironically, not that pleasurable. There’s something about the tension between knowing something is coming and when it arrives that is just so fucking hot. If I learnt pacing from studying movies, then I learnt tension from studying music. Tension is what makes a bass drop so satisfying when it finally hits. - You could argue that how much you enjoy something comes down to a formula: (Results minus Expectations equals Enjoyment.) If something was good but you expected better, you don’t enjoy it that much, for instance. But if you went to see something kinda rubbish and it turned out to be good, wow! That was surprisingly fun, I enjoyed that! So, expectation control is important. Both in yourself and in others. Undersell, overperform is a good rule of thumb. Though don’t undersell too much. You’ll get a feel for it over time. Also, keep your own expectations low (on the quiet. No need to be rude.) - Like I said in other sections, and this is weird but true: People tend to follow how you act about things. If you act like a bit of poop or a dick going a bit soft isn’t a big deal, people will feel it isn’t a big deal. Which it isn’t! And then you’re more likely to be able to deal with the obstacle and continue with sex. - Sex isn’t everything, don’t base too much of your identity on being good at it or getting it. If you go that way, you’ll never have enough.
Sex Anxiety: - A lot of us end up feeling anxious about if we'll perform well. I myself had a period where I'd worry if I'd get a boner, which is a great way to not get a boner! It really messed with me. But I managed to overcome it by following these steps: - Give yourself permission to not be into it. You may need to say something like, "Sorry, you're very attractive but my anxiety is playing up," and that's ok. Or give yourself permission to say, “I’m sorry, I don’t seem to be into this.” Then, once you’ve accepted those possibilities, focus on what you feel. How his lips feel. How his body feels. How his hand feels on the back of your head. Not trying to make it feel good, just notice what is actually there. When anxious thoughts return, acknowledge to yourself that they are there, then refocus on what you feel. Thoughts are like tar. Pushing them away only makes them stick more. Touch them with a feather, instead. They may just float away. - All anxieties are a bully. They feed on you arguing with them or trying not to listen. Distraction and accepting both yourself and the anxiety are your best responses. - If anxiety is ongoing, it may also help to reprogram your brain. This is done long-term with repeated effort. Whenever you think about sex and then worry, it makes the connection between those two things stronger in your brain. So, you go from sex to worry easier in future, which makes the connection stronger, etc. It builds into sex anxiety. But you can’t destroy connections. So, build a new connection and strengthen it! The old one will then whither. For me, that looked like this: Any time I noticed myself worrying about sex, I would focus my mind instead on whatever I was physically feeling at the time. Maybe rubbing my fingers together, for instance. Or playing with my boner in the morning. No judgement, just noticing. The more you do it throughout the day, any time you notice worry about sex, the stronger this new connection is. As an added bonus, learning to focus on your body can help you enjoy sex more.
Relationships: - Communication on potential problems and emotions is key. If communication isn't solving all your problems, you just aren't using enough of it! Either you'll find a solution where you're both comfortable, or else a solution isn't possible. If the latter is the case, it's best to know now. - When you discuss issues, remember that it's not you vs them, it's you vs the problem. - Abusive relationships can happen to even the strongest people. In fact, abusive people use that very strength AGAINST you. "Thank God this is happening to me, not some young girl." "He's hurting, he needs me." Thoughts like that are common in the victims. - Another way that abusive partners keep you around is to have a cycle of abusive. Mistreat you for a while, then apologetic and lovely, then mistreat you again, etc. - Abusers may also isolate you from friends and family so it's harder to get help. Turning you against each other. Making you seem crazy to others. Having you move cities or leave a job. - Abusive partners are also often very charming. - Leaving abusive people isn’t something I have a lot of knowledge about at this point. But you deserve better and there are a lot of resources around to help you leave. Both information and actual, physical resources. Organisations in your area probably offer shelter, for instance. - More people should know about Coolage. It's a biological term and it's basically your genes fucking you over. If you put two rats in a cage, they'll fuck regularly for a while, then stop. Put them in cages with other rats and they'll fuck those rats. That’s coolage. Coolage is your genes saying, "It's been a while, you either have kids or it's not gonna happen. Move on." I believe humans often have this and it's a reason why people have less sex the longer they are together. You still like the look of your partner, you still enjoy it when you bang. It’s just that the urge to do it as much doesn’t happen as often. Coolage. Perfectly natural, don't sweat it. - We equate love with sex too much. The Greeks talked about there being several kinds of love. There's eros, which is sexual. There's new love and friend love and self-love. Then there’s what they considered the highest love: Pragma. It’s a more mature, realistic love. Pragma is based on compromise, understanding and patience to make it work long-term. If you have Pragma now, rather than a new sexy love? Well I think that’s pretty cool, honestly. - Another useful concept is the 5 Love Languages. We all express love in all these languages to different extents. Some feel more comfortable or feel it's more genuine to give gifts. Some prefer words. Some do tasks or spend time with you to show affection. Without understanding this, you may feel unloved when in reality your partner is sending love signals loud and clear. Talk about love languages with the people in your life. Look it up for a more thorough explanation. - I'm a fan of open relationships. You get cuddles and support while also flirting with dudes online. It also takes a certain pressure off of satisfying libidos for each other all the time. Say, if one person has a higher sex drive or you are dealing with coolage or injury. Some people find it easier to stick to an open relationship than monogamy. - Other people feel more comfortable in a monogamous relationship, which is also valid. - All open relationships have rules, even if they're unspoken. Don't bang their brother, for instance. Long-standing open relationship often have rules like, "No staying overnight." These rules may change as you both mature and discuss how things are going. - One rule I advocate is: Either of you can veto any guy even if it's for an irrational reason. So, you can always say, "Don't bang this guy." This always put your partner's feelings ahead of any dick. - Avoid breaking rules or cheating on your partner. I’ve broken a rule for something I found irresistible. I eventually had to come clean for two reasons: 1) Someone told me, “Everything comes out in 6 years,” and I was seeing signs that that was true. 2) Guilt about breaking a rule is a happiness tax. You can be having a good day and suddenly remember the bad thing. I personally just didn’t like it. No thank you. Avoid breaking rules. Coming clean may be the best option. It was for us. - Avoid being the person for someone else to cheat with. This is personal preference, I suppose. But I’ve slept with someone who was GOING to break-up with their partner. Then they didn’t. And years later I ended up shaking the hand of the man I had cuckolded. I didn’t tell him. At this point, I don’t think that’s my place. But I didn’t like that. No, I did not. 0/10, would not recommend. - Long distance relationships are emotionally difficult. Don’t enter one lightly. They also aren’t a long-term solution; you’ll want to settle in one place eventually. - I find this quote from Mr. Rogers useful: “Love isn't a state of perfect caring. It is an active word, like to struggle. To love someone is to strive to accept that person exactly the way he or she is, right here and now.” - At the same time, sometimes change is needed. There’s a tension between that and Mr. Rogers’ great advice. I think we all must walk the line on that one. Accept someone as best you can but prod them to change if it’s needed. - Both partners must respect the others’ feelings. You will be happier if you can set and enforce reasonable boundaries in your life. Particularly on people wanting your time and energy. You will also have a healthier, happier partner if you respect their boundaries. - If someone ignores your feelings repeatedly, that’s a huge red flag. - Trust your gut, it often picks up on things before you do.
That’s the word limit, so I’ll put the rest in comments below. I told you it was thorough! Which is a nice way of saying going on for way too long.
submitted by PornducationTom to askgaybros [link] [comments]

How to Get Started With Sports Betting

Sports betting is simply placing a wager on a sporting event. You are betting that your team, horse, dog, or driver will win. If they do win, so do you! If they lose, you lose your bet amount. Sports betting takes place all over the world, though in the United States this type of betting is not as highly accepted as it is in Europe.
Online sports betting is probably the best option for those who are interesting in trying it for the first time. If you have never tried online sports betting, you are missing so much fun and excitement, and it can all happen in the comfortable surroundings of your home! The art of sports betting can seem confusing at first, but once you are familiar with some of the jargon that is used to explain the concepts and logic behind each type of bet, it is all much easier to understand.
One of the best ways for you to experience this engaging way to bet on your favourite racing and sporting events is to get acquainted with online sports betting. However, in order to best take advantage of all that sports betting has to offer, you need to know a little more about it.
Sports Betting - The Odds
How does online sports betting work? You should start by studying the odds for the sporting event you are most interested in placing a wager upon. When using online sports betting, you can find these odds in the various online sports books used by Internet gamers everywhere. You must open an account with an online sports book before you can place your bet, but this is simple to do.
Once you have chosen where you are going to do your sports betting, you need to decide how you are going to place your bet. There are many different ways for you to wager your chosen amount of money, but first, let's talk about the spread and how it can affect the amount you bet.
Sports Betting - The Spread
The spread is a point advantage in sports betting, which is usually given to the team that is generally expected to lose a particular sporting event. If you decide that you will bet on the team that is expected to win, they will have to win by more than the spread number and cover the spread before you are considered to have chosen correctly. If you choose the team that is expected to lose, that team will have to lose by less than the spread number in order for your pick to be considered correct. If by chance the team wins by the number of points that were chosen as the spread, the game is called a push.
No one who engages in sports betting wins a thing if a game is called as a push, but you do get the amount of your original bet back. The point spread is done in order to make the all of the bets come out even for the sports book, and is usually done for sports such as basketball or football.
Sports Betting - The Bet
If you were to bet against the spread, most likely you would place a type of bet called an 11-10, or spread bet. By betting $11, you win $10 if your team's score covers the spread. This is another way that the online sports book makes its money.
An over-under bet is also an 11-10 bet. With this type of bet, the total score of the two teams that played will be either over or under the total score that was listed before the game was played. Betting on the score being over is called 'betting on the ball'. Betting on the score being under is called 'betting on the clock'.
A proposition bet is a type of bet where the online sports book chooses what the odds and the conditions of the bet are going to be. This type of bet can be most interesting, even a little fun at times, for the conditions can be as unusual as which of two football teams will make the most touchdowns, which of two basketball teams will score the most three pointers, or even which individual player will make a certain move for the team. The odds for this kind of bet are sometimes 11-10, but can be better or worse depending on the circumstances.
A parlay bet happens when you are betting on more than one event, usually three. This type of bet gives you a much higher payout if you should win, but the catch is that all the events you bet on will have to win. If even one of them loses, they all lose, and you lose the amount that you bet.
A money line bet seems rather formidable, especially to someone who is just getting into online sports betting, but it is really one of the simplest bets of all. It is also called a Straight Up bet, and there is no point spread to consider. You will just choose your sport, and then the team you think will be either the underdog or the favourite. In a money line bet, the sports book will have numbers listed that are in the hundreds, with either a plus or a minus sign beside them. These numbers are considered the 'money line', and are the multipliers for the bets.
If the money line for your team is listed as 100, you will make an even bet. This means you will wager the same amount that you will get back. If the money line reads -110, then you must come up with the amount of money you have decided to bet, plus 10%. This extra 10% is known by the name of 'juice'. If the money line for your team is listed as +110, then you simply place your bet with the amount you choose to bet. If you win a money line bet, you get the amount of your bet plus 10% back. For example, if you bet $10.00 and $1.00 in juice on a -110 money line and it wins, you get $21. 00.
A teaser bet in sports betting is actually a proposition bet that allows you to change the odds for the bet in either direction so that the wager is in your favour. You can go up or down in points, and must choose at least two teams, as is done in a parlay bet. You can have as many as 6 separate teams included on a teaser bet, but all of the teams chosen have to win in order for your bet to be declared a winning one. Once the games are over, the points from the teaser bet are added or subtracted from the final scores. The odds for teaser bets can be different each time, so it is a good plan to always check the sports book before placing your bet.
A tip to remember is that generally, when placing a wager on any sport that can finish with a high score, such as football, you will have a spread. Sports where the ending score is low, such as in baseball will have a money line. Remember also that favourable odds on a game can sometimes work in your favour. Online sports betting allows you to easily go from sports book to sports book to find the best odds.
submitted by PresentType to bovadasportsinoss [link] [comments]

Goliath Casino 50 free spins and €1200 free bonus code

Goliath Casino 50 free spins and €1200 free bonus code

Goliath Casino Free Spins & Welcome Bonus
All new players to Goliath Casino receive exclusive welcome bonus. Get €1200 free bonus and 50 free spins on deposit. Play any game and as much as you can! No max cashout! No download needed! Fast pay and play!
>> Claim Free Spins Bonus <<

Goliath Casino Review

Arriving on a crowded scene in 2018, Goliath Casino is owned and operated by Goliath LTD, a company based in Malta. The ambitious name of the casino clearly states its intention of becoming a big and popular brand. However, distancing yourself from a sea of casinos that are just too alike is a mammoth task. To stand out from the rest, a casino should have unique features apart from a different look and feel. Our reviewers feel that Goliath Casino doesn’t really excel in that department, although it’s on the right path.
The casino is licensed by the UK and Alderney Gambling Commissions as well as the Malta Gaming Authority, which means that it’s targeting users from all over Europe. All European players are welcome at Goliath Casino, but USA gamblers have no such luck. The casino is available in a few languages that include English, Swedish, and Finnish.
There’s a nice selection of games, predominantly slots, at this online casino. All the games are provided by top-notch developers, so you can expect quality titles to play here. However, there are more than a few shortcomings too. So, is the casino really worthy of bearing the mythical name of Goliath?

A Generous Welcome Offer for Newcomers

It’s fair to say that this casino offers a welcome bonus of Goliath proportions. Once you sign up, you can enjoy a very generous welcome offer that is spread over several deposits. That’s a hefty pay cheque if you ask us, and players would be foolish not to claim it. When a casino lends you such a lucrative hand, you should greet it.
With that being said, our casino review team were disappointed with the lack of any other promotions at Goliath Casino. There is a VIP scheme – which we’ll get to later – plus a promo for new sports punters (the website has a sportsbook as well), but literally nothing else in the casino department. That’s a large minus in our book, and something we hope gets fixed pretty soon.
Still, the generous welcome offer will make you forget things for a while – probably until you spend all the extra funds and free spins.
>> Claim Free Spins Bonus <<

Join the Very Rewarding VIP Scheme

Your gambling exploits at Goliath Casino will be handsomely rewarded with extra points you can later convert to free bonus cash. Once you become a regular customer at the casino, you'll climb the VIP ladder and earn free cash in bonuses. There are a total of seven levels (New, Bronze, Silver, Gold, Platinum, Premium, and Prestige), each one having its own perks.
There’s a lot to like when it comes to the rewards. You will get tons of free spins, upgraded bonuses, and plenty of other lucrative prizes that will make you feel like a VIP and make you play more and more. It’s a win-win situation for the casino and the player. Oh, yeah, we forgot to mention that once you reach the higher levels, you’ll be treated to 20, 30 or 50 free games on Sunday – so you can play for free and still earn great rewards.
Terms and conditions apply to all promotions and bonuses. You must be 18 years old and above to join the casino. Play responsibly.

Spin an Impressive Collection of Slots

Take a look at the software providers at Goliath Casino, and you’ll get a general idea of what to expect in the game department. With Microgaming, Big Time Gaming, Thunderkick, iSoftBet, Bally, and Play’n GO among the extensive list of game providers, Goliath Casino can brag about a large collection of great hot-off-the-press titles.
Fancy some adventure? The great and popular Gonzo’s Quest slot is plenty of fun. Fans of 80s hairdos and the TV show Miami Vice will instantly be transported back in time with NetEnt’s impressive Hotline slot. NetEnt has another hit in the Jimi Hendrix slot which does the late, great guitar player justice, perfectly evoking the hippie revolution from the 60s and 70s.
The fun, of course, doesn’t stop there. At Goliath Casino, our reviewers played the latest slot titles plus an abundance of classics. It's clear that you'll never get bored here. The jackpot offer might be a bit underwhelming (a total of 6 titles), but the fact that it includes the record-breaking Mega Moolah and Divine Fortune slots makes things much better. Both can earn you millions if you’re really lucky, so we suggest giving them a spin.
Fans of other casino games will also have a great time at Goliath Casino. Click the table games tab, and you’ll be presented with numerous casino games that include video poker, blackjack, roulette, craps, baccarat, and solitaire. Bingo fans aren't that fortunate, though, but we think Goliath Casino’s offer should satisfy most players.
Finally, there’s a live casino powered by Evolution Gaming which offers quite a few roulette and blackjack variations in top-notch HD quality. Unfortunately, it’s not as extensive as we'd hoped, and we feel this area should be improved on since live dealer games are the future of online gambling.

Play the Casino’s Games Anytime, Anywhere

Fire up the browser on your smartphone, visit Goliath Casino, and you can easily game on the go. This casino’s mobile platform works and looks great, cool loading animations included. The variety of games isn’t that big, but that’s to be expected from a mobile platform. The mobile version of the casino works great across a wide range of iOS and Android devices thanks to HTML5 technology, so you can easily play your fave games on your smartphone or tablet.
>> Claim Free Spins Bonus <<

Your Run-of-the-Mill Customer Support

If our review experts had to pick an area where Goliath Casino excels in customer support, it’s the live chat feature provided by Live Person. When you click on support, a new window will present you with 12 options regarding your query. By going step by step, you will get the answer you're looking for. Other than that, nothing stands out. You can contact the casino via e-mail or phone, but only between 06:00 and 23:00 (GMT).

Use a Wide Range of Payment Options

Depositing and withdrawing money at Goliath Casino is very easy, thanks to the wide range of payment options the casino accepts. Deposits can be made with Visa, MasterCard, Neteller, Skrill, ecoPayz, Entropay, and the EPS program among others. The deposits and withdrawals are available in a number of currencies including EUR.
You can withdraw your winnings using the deposit method you’ve chosen, and the limits are quite large as well (up to €100,000 for Visa). It depends on your method of choice, though – for Skrill users, the limit is much lower (€2,500). The withdrawal times are pretty slow too, ranging from 6 to 8 days for most of the methods. Another concern our reviewers have about Goliath Casino is that withdrawal requests over €2,300 are subject to further proof of identity, which complicates matters even more.

Is Goliath Casino a Real Goliath in the Industry?

There are definitely things our review experts love about Goliath Casino. There’s a wide range of games (although the table games and Live Casino sections could be better), top-notch security provided by COMODO, a wide range of payment options, and a solid mobile platform.
However, there’s definitely a lot of space for improvement. First and foremost, the casino needs to add more promotions as the welcome offer isn’t likely to cut it for experienced players. We would have liked to see higher maximum withdrawal limits for some of the payment options and 24/7 customer support, too The casino has started off on the right foot, but it should definitely work overtime and fix its problems before we can give it our full recommendation.
>> Claim Free Spins Bonus <<
submitted by casinogy to u/casinogy [link] [comments]

How to Bet on Sports for Beginners

1. Favorites vs. Underdogs

When the oddsmakers release a betting line on a game, the first thing they do is decide which team should be the favorite and which should be the underdog.
The favorite is the team that is expected to win the game and will get a minus sign next to its odds, while the underdog is expected to lose and gets a plus sign. If the game is a toss-up, books will open it as a “pick” or “pick’em.”

2. Spreads

There are two different ways to bet on a favorite or an underdog. The first is the point spread, which is a bet on the margin of victory. A favorite “gives” points, while an underdog “gets” points.
For example, say the Patriots are 7-point favorites (-7) against the Jets.
If you bet on the Patriots, they need to win the game by 8 points or more for you to win your bet. If the Patriots win by 8 points or more, you “cover.” If the Patriots win by exactly 7 points, that is called a “push,” which means you get back the money you originally bet.
If the Patriots win by 6 points or fewer (or lose the game straight-up), you lose your bet.
On the flip side, if you bet on the Jets “plus the points” (+7), you need the Jets to either win the game lose by six points or fewer for you to win (or cover) your bet.
Spreads are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on football and basketball.

3. Moneylines

The second way to bet on a favorite or an underdog is on the moneyline. This is based solely on which team will win the game. Favorites are given a “minus” designation, such as -150, -200 or -500. If a favorite is -200, that means you have to risk $200 to win $100. If the favorite wins, you get $100, but if the favorite loses, you’re out $200. Because favorites are expected to win, you assume more risk when betting on them.
Underdogs are given a “plus” designation, such as +150, +200 or +500. If an underdog is +200, that means if you bet $100 on them and they win the game, you get $200. If they lose the game, you lose only the $100 that you risked. Because underdogs are expected to lose, there is more of a reward when betting on them.
Moneylines are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on baseball, hockey and soccer.

4. OveUnders (Totals)

In addition to setting a line for the favorite and the underdog, oddsmakers will also set a total number of points scored in a game by both teams combined. This is called the “total” or the “oveunder.”
Bettors can then wager on whether or not the game will go Over or Under the total.
For example, an NBA game between the Celtics and Bulls might have a total of 215. You could either bet the Over 215 or the Under 215. If you bet the Over 215 and the total points scored end up being 216 or higher, you win your bet. If the total points scored are 214 or fewer, you lose.

5. What is the -110 number listed next to my bet?

The oddsmakers put a “tax” on every bet, which is typically called the “juice,” “takeout” or “vig” (short for “vigorish”). The juice is the commission you have to pay to the sportsbook for them to accept your wager.
Say the Duke Blue Devils are -5 (-110) … that means if you want to bet on Duke as a 5-point favorite, you need to risk $110 to win $100.
The juice can also be a positive number, such as Penn State -7 (+110). That means if you bet $100 on Penn State as a 7-point favorite and it covers, you win $110. If it loses, you lose only the $100 that you risked.

6. How to Place a Bet

With legalized sports betting spreading across America, sports bettors have never had more options to take advantage of. To see if sports betting is legal where you live, check out our state-by-state tracker.
Some of the biggest states that have legalized mobile wagering include New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana and West Virginia. The sportsbooks highlighted below are all trustworthy legal shops that take mobile bets.

7. Rotation Numbers

Rotation numbers are what’s listed to the left of a team on the board. They are also referred to as the NSS number or Vegas ID number. They are unique to the team, sport and league, and universal across most sportsbooks.
For example, you might see the number “312” listed next to the Bruins -120. If you’re at a casino and want to bet $100 on the Bruins, walk up to the window with your money and say, “$100 on 312, Bruins -120.”

8. Lines Move in Real Time

Much like stocks on Wall Street, the sports betting market is fluid. Throughout the day, bookmakers will adjust the odds depending on the action they’re taking and other news, such as injuries and weather. For example, if the Vikings open as 7-point favorites and the vast majority of bets are on the Vikings, you might see the Vikings’ line move from -7 to -7.5. The line could move even further to -8, or it could be “bought back” to -7.
You can monitor betting data for every game in real time on our live odds page or in our mobile app (download here).

9. Shop for the Best Line

Lines can vary based on the sportsbook, because different books have different clienteles. As a result, one book may post the Cavs -8 while another has -7.5. Having access to more than one sportsbook allows you to shop for the best line. Getting an extra half-point might not seem like a huge deal, but it adds up over the long haul and increases your chances of winning.
Our live odds pages will automatically surface the best line for every game.
submitted by PresentType to vslots88dotcom [link] [comments]

How to Bet on Sports for Beginners

1. Favorites vs. Underdogs

When the oddsmakers release (also known as opening) a line on a game, the first thing they do is decide which team should be the favorite and which should be the underdog. The favorite is the team that is expected to win the game, while the underdog is expected to lose. If the game is a toss-up, books will open it as a “pick” or “pick’em.”

2. Spreads

There are two different ways to bet on a favorite or an underdog. The first is the point spread. This is based on which team will cover. A favorite “gives” points, while an underdog “gets” points. For example, say the Patriots are 7-point favorites (-7) against the Jets.
If you bet on the Patriots, they need to win the game by 8 points or more for you to win your bet. If the Patriots win by 8 points or more, you “cover.” If the Patriots win by exactly 7 points, that is called a “push,” which means you get back the money you originally bet. If the Patriots win by 6 points or fewer (or lose the game straight-up), you lose your bet.
On the flip side, if you bet on the Jets “plus the points” (+7), you need the Jets to either win the game lose by six points or fewer for you to win (or cover) your bet.
Spreads are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on football and basketball.

3. Moneylines

The second way to bet on a favorite or an underdog is on the moneyline. This is based solely on which team will win the game. Favorites are given a “minus” designation, such as -150, -200 or -500. If a favorite is -200, that means you have to risk $200 to win $100. If the favorite wins, you get $100, but if the favorite loses, you’re out $200. Because favorites are expected to win, you assume more risk when betting on them.
Underdogs are given a “plus” designation, such as +150, +200 or +500. If an underdog is +200, that means if you bet $100 on them and they win the game, you get $200. If they lose the game, you lose only the $100 that you risked. Because underdogs are expected to lose, there is more of a reward when betting on them.
Moneylines are available for all sports, but they are predominantly used when betting on baseball, hockey and soccer.
submitted by PresentType to databet88info [link] [comments]

WORK In prog

On our MTV Challenge Accepted podcast (link in bold) we have a segment where we discuss this question. Whose stock went up? Whose stock went down? Here were our winners and losers this week.
STOCK UP
[OC] Which awards are locked in? Which are still up for debate? a glance through the odds and campaigns in each category
It feels like it's been 5 years since we've seen actual NBA basketball, which may make awards debates and campaigns more difficult. Wait, who was playing well again...? Dennis Schroder? Seriously? Huh. Okay then.
As we soldier back into the bubble, there's a risk that awards voters will forget about that early part of the season (aka the vast majority) and fall victim to recency bias. Given that, we wanted to glance through the major races and determine which -- if any -- awards may still be in debate.
For this exercise, I'm using the current odds as listed by an online betting site (bovada). Note: the percentages do NOT add up to 100% because online betting sites like your money.
MVP
Giannis Antetokounmpo: - 3500 (97%)
LeBron James: +600 (14%)
is the race over?
This betting site heavily favors Giannis Antetokounmpo, although some other metrics have it closer than that. Basketball-reference's MVP tracker lists Giannis at 50.7% and LeBron at 17.3%.
I'm more inclined to believe the latter and that LeBron James would be closer to 15-20% odds. No doubt, Giannis is a worthy MVP. He's been a dominant force (again) for the top statistical team in the league (again.) He's racking up 30-14-6 in only 30.9 minutes per game. In most circumstances, he'd win this award in a walk.
That said, you can never discount "narrative," and LeBron James has a few of those going for him. The Lakers have vaulted up to the # 1 seed in the West, outperforming preseason expectations. James has played exceptionally well, and even led the league in assists. Partly because of that, James' camp has successfully gotten the media to buy into the storyline that he made a sudden transition to point guard (ya know, because he had always deferred to his point guards like Mo Williams and Mario Chalmers in the past...)
More than that, James may benefit from this strange corona-bubble. He's been a leading advocate for continuing on, and as always, players tend to follow his lead. I can see more than a few media members giving James an MVP vote for "saving the season." All in all, I expect this vote to be closer than it should be (and I expect poor James Harden to finish well behind where he should as well.)
So James will get some votes, but can he actually win the award? I wouldn't rule it out. The Lakers are currently 3 games behind the Bucks for the # 1 overall seed. It's hard to imagine Milwaukee losing enough to slip, but it's not Wallace Shawn inconceivable either. If the Lakers somehow manage to catch them, then I actually think LeBron will win MVP. Of course, it's more likely the Bucks will hang onto the # 1 seed, and Giannis will hang onto MVP. But again, I don't think it's a stone cold lock -- yet.
Rookie of the Year
Ja Morant: - 3500 (97%)
Zion Williamson: +850 (11%)
is the race over?
It should be. Zion Williamson is freakin' amazing, but he's played 19 games so far. That's 40 less than Ja Morant, who has played stellar ball for a rookie from a small school, and somehow led the Memphis Grizzlies to the 8th seed.
Still, we can't rule out the risk of recency bias and a wild overreaction from the media. Williamson has a chance to lead the Pelicans up to the 9th spot, at which point they'd play Morant's Grizzlies. If Williamson can lead New Orleans to two victories over Memphis in a row -- and thus leapfrog them in the standings -- then it's very feasible the media would throw their vote his way. The media (and the league as a whole) tends to like this Zion fella, if you haven't noticed.
Sixth Man
Dennis Schroder: - 220 (69%)
Montrezl Harrell: +190 (34%)
Lou Williams: +450 (18%)
Derrick Rose: +3000 (3%)
is the race over?
Simply put: no. It's still a three-man race in my book. The Clippers' Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell finished 1-2 last season, and are right back in the thick of things this year. Among the two, it's harder to justify Williams' winning for the third season in a row. He hasn't played as well as last year, and hasn't been as big of a focal point for the Clippers' game plan. He hasn't looked as engaged this season, and even debated missing the bubble.
With Sweet Lou taking a slight step back, it's opened the door for Dennis Schroder. He's having a career season in terms of efficiency. In fact, it's hard to understate his jump this year. In his six previous season, his career high TS% was only 53.3%. This season? He's vaulted up to 57.3%. The question is: have enough voters noticed? OKC has been a feel-good story this year, but Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tend to get the most credit for that.
Overall, I wouldn't be surprised if voters get lazy and just fall back on the highest scorer among the three. And even by those standards, the race is wide open. Schroder is at 19.0 PPG, Williams is at 18.7 PPG, and Harrell is at 18.6 PPG. A strong (or bad) week or two in the bubble may tilt this race in any direction.
Defensive Player of the Year
Giannis Antetokounmpo: -500 (83%)
Anthony Davis: +200 (33%)
Rudy Gobert: +2800 (3%)
is the race over?
Even among savvy and analytically-inclined media members, "defense" is still something of a mystery to quantify. We see a lot of herd mentality emerge for DPOY voting, with candidates needing to stake their claim early on and campaign all season long.
In terms of storylines and narratives, it felt like Anthony Davis had the early momentum. He's a wrecking ball (1.5 steals, 2.4 blocks) who helped improve the Lakers' defense from # 12 to # 3 this season. Still, Giannis Antetokounmpo has steadily built his case for a double MVP + DPOY, and currently ranks as the betting favorite on this site.
Personally, I believe it's a closer race than these numbers suggest. At the same time, I'm not sure what their play in the bubble is going to do about it. More likely, it'll be an influential media piece (like Zach Lowe pushing for Marc Gasol) that may get voters ushering on one side or another.
Most Improved
Bam Adebayo: -150 (60%)
Brandon Ingram: +250 (29%)
Luke Doncic: +500 (17%)
Jayson Tatum: +900 (10%)
Devonte Graham: +1000 (9%)
is the race over?
Again, this race feels "too close to call" to me. John King and David Chalian may be tallying up the counties all night long.
Earlier this season, I looked back at previous Most Improved winners and tried to find some common threads. On average, the winner improved from 11.7 PPG to 19.6 PPG (roughly +8 points.)
Historically speaking, Brandon Ingram and Jayson Tatum fit close to those templates. Ingram has swelled from 18.3 PPG to 24.3 PPG in his first season in New Orleans (+6). Tatum has made an even bigger leap, going from 15.7 PPG to 23.6 PPG (essentially our exact +8). Of the two, I may lean more to Ingram myself. Tatum's taking more shots and more threes, but he was already considered a proven star prior to this. Ingram had been more of a question mark before, but has now established himself as a potential max player. The key for him has been an improved FT%. In his first three seasons, he shot 62%, 68%, and 68% from the line. This year, he's up to 86%. That's major progress, and represents a massive difference in his efficiency "floor." Still, you wonder if Ingram's momentum peaked too early. Ever since Zion Williamson came back, it feels like Ingram has been an afterthought in the media.
Conversely, Bam Adebayo's reputation within the media is still surging. He's been a major reason for the Miami Heat's success this year, nearly doubling from 8.9 PPG to 16.2 PPG (+7.3 overall.) He's also doubled his assists (from 2.2 to 5.1). If you wanted to nitpick Adebayo's candidacy, you may suggest he was pretty darn good already. A lot of the statistical upswing comes from an increase in minutes, from 23.3 to 34.4 this year.
Overall, I'd say Abebayo is the favorite, but I wouldn't lock it in yet. A player like Brandon Ingram could get hot and have a few 40 point games, at which point the momentum may swing back in his favor.
When anthropology professors
99 cent store free agents: Point Guards
The NBA offseason is always filled with exciting storylines like star free agents and blockbuster trades.
But rather than dwell on the obvious, this series intends to do the opposite: focus on the lower-profile free agents who may have some value to teams. No NBA player is actually "99 Cents," of course, but these are all players who may be bargains based on their perceived market.
This "99 Cent Store" series has been open for business for the last two offseasons. In the past, we've highlighted names like Fred VanVleet (pre breakout), Christian Wood, and Davis Bertans. Not all of the items turn out to be gems (is Nerlens Noel still not a DPOY candidate yet?), but the returns have been largely positive so far. Let's see if we can keep that momentum going this season.
99 cent store
Langston Galloway, Detroit Pistons, UFA, 28 years old
In last year's 99 Cent Store, we hyped up Seth Curry (Steph's brother) as a possible value free agent. Seth didn't have the size and skill set of a traditional point guard, but the NBA isn't always craving traditional point guards these days. A lot of star SGs, SFs, PFs, and even Cs have the ball in their hands, so teams need to fill the court with a supporting cast that can complement them and provide spacing. Effectively an undersized SG, Seth's excellent shooting appeared to be a perfect complement to a ball-dominant superstar. Seth ended up going to Dallas on a moderate contract, and had a strong season for them in that role.
For those same reasons, we'd recommend Langston Galloway as a potential bargain add. We're not going to suggest that Galloway is as good as Seth Curry as a player or as a shooter, but his skill set is related. He's not Steph Curry -- he's not Seth Curry -- he's on the opposite side of the family tree. He's like the random third cousin who shows up at the barbecue and hogs all the mac n' cheese. Still, if he got the address, then he must have some relation to the family we know and love.
Galloway would share some DNA in the sense that he's also a "point guard" who's more of an undersized shooting guard by nature. He doesn't have the ball skills or playmaking to run an offense. At all. However, he can be effective if operating as a 3+D guard. Players like Patrick Beverly and George Hill are the premium prototypes of that skill set, and Galloway is the 99 Cent store generic brand. He's an above-average as a shooter (36.7% from three for his career), and above-average as a defender, where his 6'8" wingspan helps his cause. And while it feels like Galloway has been around forever, he's still only 28 years old. He probably has 2-3 years left of usefulness in his role. There may be 1 or 2 teams that would start Langston Galloway (in a limited role), but almost every team could use him as part of the rotation.
possible fits
HOU. Russell Westbrook and James Harden are ball dominant and salary-cap dominant players, making depth a constant struggle for the team. Backup PG Austin Rivers can probably get more money than he's due on his player option ($2.4M) even in a COVID-market, possibly creating another hole. Galloway would make sense as a replacement here, seeing as how he'd be able to play in a lineup with either Westbrook or Harden.
LAL. Avery Bradley may be skipping the playoffs, but there's still a chance the Lakers can win the title with some combination of Alex Caruso and Rajon Rondo at PG anyway. But what happens if it doesn't work out? What happens if Bradley and Rondo (both of whom have player options) get shuffled out? In that case, Galloway and Caruso could tag-team and provide a decent and low-cost 3+D guard spot for next year.
MIN. The Timberwolves tried the "no PG offense" for a majority of the season, and it didn't work out so hot. Now, they'll be handing the reins over to D'Angelo Russell full time. Galloway could be a nice backup for Russell; the two would have enough size to play some minutes alongside each other as well. You have to figure Gersson Rosas will prioritize shooters like Galloway as well. The team wants to play MoreyBall (top 3 in 3PA), but doesn't have the personnel yet to pull it off (bottom 3 in 3P%).
Yogi Ferrell, Sacramento Kings, UFA, 27 years old
He may be fairly anonymous now, but there was a time when the name "Yogi Ferrell" was a big deal in college basketball. The bluechip recruit immediately stepped into the starting lineup for Tom Crean's Indiana Hoosiers, helping to lead the team to a # 1 seed that first year on campus. But then a funny thing happened: the college star actually stayed in college. Ferrell would go on to play all 4 years (starting 137 of 137 games) for Indiana.
Through it, Ferrell developed the negative narrative that he was a "college player." Only 6'0" with average length and athleticism, he didn't have the look of a future pro. The NBA dismissed him, leading him to get undrafted. He's hung around since then, but his buzz has dwindled and dwindled. He played this past season as Sacramento's 3rd PG, only logging 11 minutes per game. Maybe they were right -- maybe he was never cut out for the NBA.
Then again... are we sure about that? Ferrell may not be the prototype, but he still has some virtues. Among those strengths: "basketball." He's a savvy, steady field general who has an above-average shot. He's hit 36.5% from three and 83.8% from the line over the course of his NBA career. He's not going to carry the load (14-4-4 per 36 minutes), but he's not going to rock the boat either. In fact, he only averages 1.5 turnovers per 36.
The concern with a player like Ferrell would be his limited size and athleticism, a combo that tends to translate into awful defense. But again, we haven't seen much evidence of that. Effort and basketball IQ can help overcome athletic weaknesses, and that appears to be the case with Ferrell. Limitations and all, Ferrell has registered only a -0.2 defensive box plus/minus.
Overall, this profile doesn't suggest any huge upside or any hidden "star" potential. But at the end of the day, this store isn't about star potential -- it's about value. Ferrell is a high-end third PG who can potentially be a true # 2. He'd make sense on a team like Orlando as a potential replacement for their own steady eddie backup D.J. Augustin (also a free agent.)
clearance rack
Gary Payton II, Washington Wizards, UFA, 27 years old
On paper, you may wonder why Gary Payton II wasn't a bigger deal entering the NBA Draft. After all, we're talking about the son of an NBA superstar who had been productive in college. In his last season at Oregon State, he averaged 16.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 7.8 assists, and 2.5 steals (!) How the heck did someone with that pedigree go undrafted?
Unfortunately for Payton, two factors worked against him. For one, he was a poor shooter. Second, he was "over-aged." After spending some time in community college with Jeff Winger and Dean Pelton, Payton would be a 24-year-old rookie, a major knock against him and his perceived upside. That criticism may have proven apt; Payton has not improved as much as a young pup may have. His three-point shooting has sagged around 25-30%, a major problem in today's NBA. In general, he's a below-average offensive player, averaging just 10-6-4 per 36 minutes.
That said, Payton does have some virtues on the other end. He's not quite "The Glove" (basketball-reference even dubs his official nickname "The Mitten"), but he's definitely a good defender. He's 6'3" with a 6'8" wingspan, and has proven to have sticky hands himself. After averaging 2.8 steals over two years at OSU, he's at 2.2 per 36 in the NBA. He makes some sense when paired together with a ball-dominant SG like a James Harden or Devin Booker or Bradley Beal. No, we're not talking about as a starter, or even as a lead backup, but as a 3rd PG who can add a different skill set to a bench. In that context, he's worth a roster spot. Is a 13th man not worth reading about to you? Well then, get the F out of our store, ya snob! This is what the 99 Cent Store is all about.
featured item
E'Twaun Moore, New Orleans Pelicans, UFA, 31 years old
Collectively, NBA fans scratched their heads in confusion when the New Orleans Pelicans doled out $8.5M a year for anonymous E'Twaun Moore. After all, this was an unheralded a player, a R2 draft pick, a player who hadn't cracked 10 PPG in any of his first six seasons in the league. For all we knew, he was an NBA2k generated player.
Three years later, the contract doesn't look much better. Moore got buried this past season in a crowded Pelicans lineup, averaging only 18.8 minutes per game. He doesn't appear to be a part of the franchise's future plans at all. Moore will be tossed out into the darkness, left with no home, and perhaps no chance of matching that $8M salary ever again.
However, we have to be mindful as NBA fans not to lump in an "overpaid" player as a synonym for a "bad" player. Someone like Tobias Harris may not be worth his salary, but he's still a good starter. On a lower level, E'Twaun Moore may be the same way. Perhaps he's not worth $8-10M a year, but he's actually a solid addition to a rotation (even if the Pelicans squeezed him out.)
Moore's primary virtue is as a 3+D wing. At first glance he's not big enough for that role at 6'4", but he's aided by a pelican-like wingspan that stretches to near 6'10". He's not a great defender (now at age 31), but he's passable at both the SG and SF spots. Offensively, he'll help you as a spacer. He's hit on 39.0% of his threes for his career, and had actually gotten up to 42% and 43% the prior two seasons before he lost some rhythm this season.
That combination of skills makes Moore a good rotation player, and perhaps even a low-end starter on the right team. I wouldn't expect him to get "overpaid" again, but that's precisely what earns him a place in our store. He's a potential bargain buy right now.
possible fits
BKN. SG Joe Harris is an excellent shooter, but he's also a free agent. Will the Nets pony up to keep him around? Or will he be jettisoned like others from the pre KD-Kyrie era? If he is, then E'Twaun Moore makes sense as a cheap replacement.
MIL. The shooting guard spot is the biggest question mark for the Bucks, and this offseason may add to the murkiness if Wes Matthews (player option) or Pat Connaughton (UFA) leave town. E'Twaun Moore would be a sensible filler, and platoon with Donte DiVincenzo.
SA. Do Gregg Popovich and the Spurs want to contend for the playoffs in 2020-21? Do they want to blow it up? TBD. But if their intention is to go for that 8th seed again, Moore may be an upgrade on smaller Bryn Forbes, who struggles on the defensive end.
99 cent store
Shaquille Harrison, Chicago Bulls, UFA, 26 years old
Coaches and front offices love to tout that "defense is half the game!" That is, until it's time to actually pay a defensive player. Or draft a defensive player. Or even invite a defensive player onto the roster for a fully guaranteed contract.
Shaq Harrison has been dealing with that struggle for his entire professional career. Coming out of Tulsa, Harrison always had the chops defensively. He's long and agile enough to guard 1s and 2s and even some 3s. The trouble is: shooting was never his strong suit. Even as a senior, he only hit 19.5% from deep in the NCAA. Yikes. That's a surefire recipe to go "undrafted," which is exactly what Harrison did.
Since then, Harrison has been trying to improve his shot, the key for him to stick on an NBA roster. This past season, we've started to see some glimmers of progress there. He shot a career-high 38.1% from three, and a career-high 78.0% from the line. Now to be fair, those were both extremely small sample sizes (16-42 from three, 39-50 from the line), but it's still encouraging nonetheless. Because if Harrison can become a passable shooter, then his defensive abilities give him inherent value. He's legitimately one of the better perimeter defenders in the league. ESPN's real plus/minus listed his impact as a +2.5 on defense, which ranked as the 9th best player in the entire NBA (out of 503 qualifiers.) If a coaching staff feels confident in their player development and their shooting coaches, then Harrison would be an intriguing investment to make.
clearance rack
John Konchar, Memphis Grizzlies, 24 years old
Last year, I included Philadelphia PG-SG Shake Milton in this column, causing Sixers fans to riot and demand that I mention the team had the right to extend his two-way contract if they wanted. The team did, and Milton will prove to be a bargain for them over the next few years. Similarly, the Memphis Grizzlies will have that opportunity to keep two-way player John Konchar on the team should they want. But if they don't, I'd be eyeing Konchar as a possible roster addition.
No doubt, there are reasons to doubt John Konchar's NBA prospects. He comes from a school that's so small that they didn't even know what to name it (shifting a few times before settling on "Purdue Fort Wayne"). And at the risk of being politically incorrect, we should also mention that he's white. NBA GMs don't exactly sit up and salivate when they see an undersized (6'5") white wing player walk into the gym.
All that said, Konchar has been productive time and time again. As you'd expect, he can hit the three pointer. But what's most intriguing about Konchar is his playing strength. He may be only 6'5" (6'7" wingspan) but he plays much bigger than that. As a college senior, he grabbed 8.5 rebounds a game and blocked 0.9 shots to boot. He also converted 62.9% of his field goals in two-point range. It may have been low level competition, but he flat-out bullied his opponents.
Naturally you'd presume: there's no way he can do that in the pros! But so far, so good. Konchar put up similar numbers in the G-League this season, hitting 56.5% from the field and grabbing 8.3 rebounds per game (in 30 minutes a night.) From there, you'd presume: there's no way he can do that in the actual NBA! Well, in his 160 minutes of NBA action, Konchar shot 65.7% from the field and averaged 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Clearly, it's too early to take this as gospel. But eventually, we're going to have to presume something else: maybe this dude is actually good. If I ran an NBA team, I'd want to run that experiment with Konchar in our uniform and not someone else's.
99 cent store
Josh Jackson, Memphis Grizzlies, UFA, 23 years old
Like most of us on this sub, I have moments when I watch the NBA, watch the roster moves, watch the draft, and think: I could do that. Not play, of course, but perhaps build a team and winning roster. I've had a long and successful career in fantasy sports, so naturally a GM job would be the logical next step.
The 2017 NBA Draft was one of those moments for me. Prior to the draft, I wrote a few posts on here, explaining why consensus top prospect Markelle Fultz wouldn't have been my personal # 1 pick. Clearly, I am a genius operating on a higher plane than the Bryan Colangelos of the world. Unfortunately, the alternative prospect that I advocated for wasn't Jayson Tatum. Or De'Aaron Fox. Or even Lonzo Ball. Instead, I thought the # 1 prospect in the class was... Josh Jackson. Whoops. Turns out, Jackson became an even bigger bust than Fultz (for his original team), causing the Phoenix Suns to dump him and wash their hands clean. Turns out: I have no clue what I'm talking about after all.
But while I may have given up on my hidden genius, I'm still not ready to give up on Josh Jackson as a player. After all, no one expected Jackson to be a finished product. Back at Kansas, his shot looked funky and in need of an overhaul. Still, he had athleticism, defensive tenacity, and flashed some ball skills and passing ability. All in all, I thought he may develop into a player in the mold of a Jimmy Butler in time.
Unfortunately, his NBA career stumbled out of the gates. If you're going to be the next Jimmy Butler, you need to work at it. Jimmy Butler may be a polarizing media presence, but he's undoubtedly a hard worker. In contrast, Josh Jackson had some issues off the court that made you doubt his dedication. His shooting hadn't improved much either. Even now, he hit on only 31.9% of his threes (29.8% career.)
Still, if you're a stubborn Jackson optimist like I am, then you can see some flashes of progress here. After being humbled by a trip to the G-League and a trade to Memphis, Jackson has started to be effective again. This past season for the Grizzlies, he averaged 19.0 PPG, 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 1.8 steals, and 0.9 blocks per 36 minutes. He's never going to be Kawhi Leonard as a shooter, but there are ways he can be effective offensively. He converted 77.5% of his field goals inside (0-3 feet), which was up from 55% in the past, showing how improved strength and bulk may aid his game. He also shot 34.8% on corner threes -- still below-average, but better than before.
So where do we go from here? What can Josh Jackson become? If he continues to work on his craft without any problems behind the scenes, he looks like a good prospect again. After all, this is a kid who's still 23 (younger than rookie teammate Brandon Clarke.) Maybe it's too optimistic to think he can be the next Jimmy Butler, but maybe he can be a solid starter in the mold of a young Wilson Chandler. There's still some risk involved here, but it's worth an investment and gamble in the right circumstance (and for the right price.)
possible fits
MEM. Jackson staying in Memphis is the most likely scenario. While the Grizzlies are in the 8th seed right now, they're still a young team. Ja Morant is 20. Jaren Jackson in 20. Jackson can fit into their timeline. The only question here is whether they already have a similar (and better) player in house in Justise Winslow.
CLE. The Memphis Grizzlies are a good young team. The Cavs are a bad young team. They need to add some more talent, especially at the wing. In theory, Jackson would be a nice complement to their undersized bomber guards like Darius Garland and Collin Sexton.
CHA. The Hornets need to find a star, somehow, some way. It's unlikely Josh Jackson becomes that star, but it's worth a shot. He's comparable to current forward Miles Bridges in terms of his worth/upside.
Daulton Hommes, San Antonio Spurs, 23 years old
Marial Shayok, Philadelphia 76ers, 24 years old
NBA general managers have a lot in common with Chris D'Elia: they like 'em young! They tend to dismiss college veterans as "over-aged" and salivate over teenagers instead. And to be fair, there's some logic there. A 22 or 23-year-old rookie likely doesn't have as much upside as a 19 or 20 year old. At the same time, not every NBA players needs to ooze with Giannis Antetokounmpo upside. Sometimes, you set the bar lower; you're just looking for a serviceable role player.
To my eye, Philadelphia's Marial Shayok is trending in that direction. He spent 5 years at college (gross!) -- the first 3 at Virginia, before transferring and playing for Iowa State in 2018-19. That last season, Shayok looked solid -- averaging 18.7 PPG with great shooting splits (50-39-88). The 6'6" wing also sported a 7'0" wingspan, which naturally makes you consider him as a potential 3+D prospect.
Still, the "age" issue prevented Shayok from going high -- landing at pick # 54 last season and earning only a two-way deal. That leverage puts the Sixers in the catbird seat here; they can bring Shayok back on a team-friendly deal, and likely will do just that after he played very well in the G-League. In fact, he averaged 27-7-5 per 36 minutes, hitting 36% from three and 89% from the line. Teams don't just let players like that go, especially when their depth is an issue already. However, if the Sixers decide to cast him aside, then Shayok should wash ashore on another team in a hurry.
Marvin Williams, Milwaukee Bucks, UFA, 34 years old
Chris Boucher, Toronto Raptors, RFA, 27 years old
Frank Kaminsky, Phoenix Suns, 27 years old
Bonzie Colson, 24 years old
Back in college at Notre Dame, Bonzie Colson felt like an anomaly. Here was a stocky 6'5" player who largely played as a smallball 5. He utilized his strength and wingspan (7'0") to bully opponents, averaging 19.7 points, 10.1 rebounds, and 2.2 blocks as a senior.
Still... a 6'5" PF/C? You didn't play like that in the NBA.
Or do you...? The Houston Rockets are changing the paradigm with heavy minutes for P.J. Tucker (also 6'5") at center. Zion Williamson (6'6") will likely play a good amount of center as well for New Orleans. It may not ever be the norm, but it's not a ridiculous concept anymore. If you're an NBA team, it makes sense to at least have a lineup like that in your back pocket to break out in case of emergency.
Colson can capably fill that role (on the back-end of a roster) due to his natural savvy and his passable shooting (34% from 3 in the G-League.) Better still, he'd be dirt-cheap after some G-League and overseas stints. In fact, he may not cost much guaranteed money at all. If he shows up at camp in good shape, then there's a chance he sticks around. And let's be honest, the NBA -- and all of our lives -- are better off when there's at least one Bonzi/e around.
Nerlens Noel, Oklahoma City Thunder, 26 years old
Jakob Poelte, Mason Plumlee
Ekpe Udoh, 33 years old
Ivan Rabb, 23 years old
Langston Galloway, Detroit Pistons, UFA, 28 years old
submitted by ZandrickEllison to romoadventureclub [link] [comments]

Analysis of Clementines fighting and combat abilities.

There has been some time back post regarding Clems ability of survival injuries she suffered in TFS and discussing if it was even possible for her to survive.

This first part is me explaining why I think I can judge her fighting style and my experience with it. You can just skip to the analysis if you want down the post, but I would recommend reading this.
That post was pretty much in the end "possible, but VERY lucky" I guess, but I really like how wholesome and worked out it was. So I wanted to make my own.

To give you some minor background, I am very interested in self defence. Not like martial arts, not MMA or Judo or anything, I also learn those cause of their usefulness in certain situations. However, I am myself focusing on "real" self defence. Meaning my style of fighting is what you would call dirty and unhonorable. However, in life to death situations when you are alone on the streets, I can guarantee you, that this is the best kind of self defence that exists.
If you want an example, man called Fred Mastro makes exactly this kind of techniques, and some of his are also part of my self defence. He himself is not a ring fighter. If you put me, or him in the ring to fight boxer, judist or anyone where there are rules, refrees and so. We would most probably loose those fights 8/10 cases of the time.

However, if you are fighting for your life on the streets, you can not fight like a boxer or judist. You have to adapt, you have to strike "dirty" weak points, like eyes, crotch, knees. You have to follow rules, such as never fall on the ground if possible, if you do, get up immediately. And this are some of many rules I will mention later, that martial artist do not follow often. They do not usually strengten they bodies either, aikido, karate, judo etc. People doing these 90% of the time do not punch each other to strengten themselves and they can not take a real punch because of it. That is something I also do, it hurts like hell sometimes, but thanks to it, you can keep on even after getting punched or kicked.
Boxers and kickboxers doit , but they dont train themselves to attack weak points, which in the end, they dont do. And they are not trained to cover their weak points, since its not allowed in their sport. Thats why I would have an upper hand in fair fight,and would get kicked down in a fair one.

This was just a quick explanation for you to know what kind I fighting I am talking about. Quick, effective and easy. I have been practicing it for half an year, 4 days a week plus or minus, for 2 and a half hours with private trainer.
Private trainer means I was either only one, or there were just 2 or 3 people with us. Thanks to that, my trainer was always able to correct me, to talk to me. I dare to say, that I am pretty "okay", and I do understand the way of thinking you do when you are in a fight.

If you do not agree with me on something, feel free to leave a comment. I will try to answer.

To get to the analysis:
  1. Her way of fighting walkers: Clem can take down walkers by kicking them in the knee and then stabbing them. Now, this is obviously really good tactic. Something I learned during my lessons is that kicking someone in the knee is much better way of stoping them in their tracks then kicking them in the belly with front kick. If you kick in the belly, they potentially can catch your arm, or push it out of the way, leaving you potentially vulnerable.
So, her way of taking them down is good, kicking them in the knee breaks the bone, they should not be able to stand at all if she hits them hard enough. It should also make them trip and hit their head, again, something that happens even to humans. She even did judo kick on that walker in episode 4 when Tenn "saved" her and AJ. And it was actually proper kick, she must have picked this from someone experienced, atleast from the looks of it.
Her way of using the knife is of course aimed towards head, since they are walkers. When fighting human, its better to aim for the neck or hips.
Also, its better to always aim for the eye, never forehead. Since they are rotting corpses, I guess it can work. But its not as efficient.
I give her walker fighting 9/10.
  1. Fight with Marlon and Abel: During fight with Marlon, they fight for the revolver and then want to force its barrel towards one another. This is good and bad.
Good, cause Marlon did not know how to properly fight with her, meaning this kept his hands too busy and could not think way of countering her. In this case, Clem made good choice by using her legs to kick him down and then take it away.
However, those kick were not aimed best way possible. Kicking him in the balls would have been much, much better. Its quick, efficient and would most probably make him puke on the spot. He would let go of the gun himself after that. No one, does not matter how big or strong, can take a kickin the balls and keep his hand on the gun.

What Clem did wrong there was at the start trying to fight Marlon with strenght. Since she is a girl, she is smaller and was just done fighting Brody, her arms would get exhausted before she could overpower him.
Better course of action would have been jumping on his arm, which he had dangling by his side at the point, literally jump on it, he loses balance, then she prays revolver out of his hand by pressing it against his arm, or she could bit his arm, and make him let go of it. The moment its out of his hand, jump on him and then go for the eyes, neck or crotch again. Those are the rules of fighting someone stronger than you, you have to play dirty. Its always better, in close quarter situation, to not go for the gun, but pull your opponent away from it. Never do it if possible. Fight your opponent until he is dead or sleeping.
And rest of the scene was her throwing the gun away, stupid idea itself, but it was for the plot. So I will not address that.

Fighting Abel: Alright, this scene was best example of her fighting abilities. When they are in Marlons office, she cuts his arm first. Amazing idea.
You would be suprised, but not many people could think of that at the moments. If you are not trained to attack someone with knife, you will not think of attacking their hands first. You just wont, trust me. Doing that was one of the smartest things she could do.
After that, he pushed her around, she kicks him in the knee (again, very good choice, that knee would realisticly crack after kick like that). Then when he pinches her down, she can not fight with his force, so she uses her surrounding. Great job there. Thats something even untrained people can do, but still got to give her points.

Then my favourite part. She pushes him on the balcony, he tries to go for her eye, but she keeps him off balance, so he can not take a good grip of her. She pushes the arm away and kicks him in crotch (great choice, again, he would have been done at that point), then he tries to punch her, she defendes it with Krav Maga block (Isreal martial art, probably one of the best out there.) And the rest is not important. Point is, this couple of seconds were amazingly done on her side. Abel was not bad either, but he was slown down by the pain.
Now here are some more things that she could have done better. Abel backed away after she slit his hand. What she could have done here was rushing his way, aiming the knife not towards the face, but lower part of the body Going towads hips and stomach( I know she did not attack him, cause she was concered about AJ, but this is just my point of what she should have done). . In best scenario, going for his crotch. This kind of attack is something no one can ever be prepared against unless very well trained, no one expects it, and it would most probably kill him. Send shock towards brain and bam, gone.
I have problem with her rushing towards him on that balcony, her and AJ attacking together would have been better bet. And if there are 2 people attacking with knives or something sharp, it does not matter what movies show you, in his condition (stabbed, one armed, exhausted) it would have been over in matter of seconds.
I will give these two fights 8/10.

3 Minerva and James fight:
Alright, this is a point where I will have problems with judging. First fight with Minerva was on that boat after Clem got out of cell. Now, Minerva is again, bigger and stronger than Clem, meaning fighting with her for that knife she held was not a good idea. It proved right when Minerva kicked her knee and forced her on the ground. (There is also this technique where if you fight for a knife this way, you can grab other persons elbow, push it upwards and towards their head, and then they can not fight anymore and you can push the blade towards their neck. They will basically stab themselves. If Clem knew it, this would have won her fight with Marlon and Minnie.)
Clementine just does everything she can here wrong way. She should have used AJs knife to rush out of the cell and stabbing Minnie while in shock. She also should have not fight for that knife against Minerva, but try to push it around the sides, eventually kicking her to fall forward, then rotating her on the side and then fighting once she would be on top. Biting her ears or neck would have been good idea too.
Now, some people called in post regarding chracters fighting to death Minerva as weak, cause she got knocked out by Clem in one punch.
This guys, is a total bullshit. She took that punch right in the jaw, forcing shock through her nerve system that concentrates there. This kind of punch can take out MMA fighters, literally. With no gloves, that kind of punch knocks a person out if aimed correctly, which it was.

This fight gets 5/10. Too many things done incorrectly, but still good enough considering she was fightin well trained soldier.

James fight: Well, again. This fight was done wrong, but this time, on both sides.

Fact that James was able to put Clem down was just sheer physical strenght. He was not even doing it correctly. If you want to push someone down like he did, you have to put your foot against their legs, causing them to loose balance and falling. Judo fightin basically. If Clem was as big as him, he would not have been able to push her like that.
If that fight would go on, James would get exhausted of pushing or Clem from falling. Since it was fight for AJ, I think Clem would keep it on longer than James. Plus, she was actually armed and going for the kill, unlike James who was basically messing around.

From Clems side however, there are problems there. Since James was bigger and stronger, she should have gone for his knees, crotch, neck and eyes. When he rushed towards her, she should have kicked upwards to hit his crotch, if she misses (totally normal thing that happens all the time in fighting), she should pull his head down by grabbing his hair and keep in kicking him in the face. When he struggles, choke him with so called "guillotine" (you gotta google it if you want to, reddit wont let me upload picture). Or, if she really wanted to, it would have been pretty possible to snap his neck.
(Also, she was letting him get too close once they were talking about his "philosophy". She should have keep hir deistance atleast arm long during all thos moments. But thats just little something. Not really an imporant point.)
In the end. Both of them fought incorrectly, but James was doing much worse job. While he was using the fact that he is stronger, if Clem decided to pull a knife out, he would get hurt and maybe killed.

(One thing guys, no matter how good you are, in fight with knives, you ALWAYS get cut. Fight for months or years or centuries. The moments a knife is in a fight, both attackers will get hurt. If not, you can buy a ticket to a fucking lottery, because you must be one lucky son of a bitch.)

So, 4/10. Both attackers did something right, but in the end, it was a dissapponitment considering what kind of fighter Clem proved to be in previous fights.

Conclusion:
There are more fights in this game, but these are most important ones. I could talk for hours about Clems way of disarming opponents, holding someone with knife against throat and so and so.

I will say this however. Clementine is a very good fighter. She must have been trained by a professional, and I will guess that to be Wellington (optionaly), but more probably, new frontier. The fighting style I am talking about is military. This kind of attacks are not taught normally, most usually only by masters in real self defence (Fred Mastro) or by soldiers.
So, I think that during her time in new frontier, David or Ava taught her a way soldier fights. Cause thats what she was doing during her good fights.

Attacking neck, crotch or eyes is not something untrainde people are able to do. Even trained ones that dont do it during trainings. If you dont train it over and over, if you dont do it automatically, you will not do it on you own when under stress. Anyone can punch right hook, but punching someone in different ways in short burst right after each other, kicking someone in weak spots, attacking knees and so. You must be specially trained for that. And Clem does just that during her best moments.

My final rating on Clem as fighter, would have been 8/10. I bet she could take anyone of any size, someone bigger, smaller, faster, stronger. Just her judgment of attack obviously gets clouded when she is angry, as shown during her Minerva and James fight. She does not think like fighter either, fighters have tricks (second hidden knife), they do not let people get close and push them if they do, she etc. etc. Basically, an unrefined diamond. Other than that, I can only praise her.

In a "fair" fight, she would have been in trouble. With referees and rules, she is way too small to fight people we see in this game. But in a "real" fight, she does attacks only well trained people can think of mid fight. And almost no one predicts them, let alone counter them.

That is my rating.
submitted by Sakehdik to TheWalkingDeadGame [link] [comments]

What motorcycles most impress the ladies?

I'm a guy and I'm guessing...
Big Cruisers are either a big plus or a big minus depending in the girl. Probably more likely to impress older women.
ADV bikes impress impress a lot of girls because they look difficult to drive because of how big and heavy they are and you can tell them how fast they are. But, ADV riders might be too into every little thing about their bikes and come across as nerdy.
Sidecar bikes have to be the best way to pick up chicks. I bet girls ask to ride all the time!
Sport bikes are like cruisers in that either its a big plus or a big minus. Probably just the opposite demographic as the ones who think cruisers are cool think sport bikes are cool, with a small percentage thinking both are cool.
Dual-sports are probably cool to most girls, especially the outdoorsy types. I keep mine covered in dirt/mud all the time I think that helps.
"Small" Older style bikes like the TU250 look cool without breaking the bank, probably a solid choice for impressing most girls.
Groms, Z125s, and similar bikes do not impress the ladies. Especially when there are other guys on full size bikes around.
I know they are rare in these parts, but if an actual real-life female could chime in and set me straight, I'd appreciate it.
submitted by SaltMyDish to motorcycles [link] [comments]

[OC] How many All-Time Top 25 Players are Currently in the League? (longpost)

There was some conversations going around NBA twitter, about two months ago now, about the liklihood of current stars passing the current perceived legends (one I remember specifically was, what's more likely, Harden>Kobe, Steph>Magic, or Durant>Bird). That conversation piqued my interest a ton, I don't think we do a great job of contextualizing non-Lebron stars and so I thought I'd try my hand at just that. To make it something I could tangibly work towards, I narrowed down the idea to "How Many Top 25 Players are in the League", and producing at a high level.
 
To do that, needed to establish something resembling a consensus All-Time ranking, and I used Simmons Pyramid and top 50 lists from CBS and SI. The point of doing that instead of making my own list from scratch was that the focus of this analysis was contextualizing current players and I was hoping it would save time and prevent people from yelling at me. Ultimately, I basically used those as a framework to get a consensus group of 25 players, and then I put them in tiers (GOATs, Generational Talents, and Greats) from there based on the consulted works and criteria I thought made some sense. All the stats are pulled from Basketball Reference, so shout out to them. There's also pre-80s tiers from Greats and GOATs, just because the stats from that era are so weird and it would make any threshold basically pointless. The descriptions/reqs for each tier aren't supposed to be end all be alls, just a general idea, though I'm sure Kobe being in Tier 3 instead of Tier 2 will bother some people (the cutoff line basically became three titles as The Guy vs two, because I feel like the two title guys are closer to Malone than they are to Duncan). Anyway, another housekeeping note, I listed Wade and Dirk among the established All-Time Top 25 because they're role players at this point, and I wanted to focus on guys still playing at a star level.After the list of 'consensus' top 25 are four sections looking at current players, all focused on different career points and viability. And that's pretty much it, this is long as hell, but covered a lot of ground.
Last note on the formatting, the career profiles are sequenced like:

Player Name

with notations for any top ten ranking within major categories. There are a couple exceptions, Dirk and Havlicek have a line for peak season as well as an extra for playoff peaks just below it, because they had unreal playoff runs that didn't conicide with their regular season peaks that I felt were relevant; and Harden's peak season is a consecutive two years, because I thought it was impressive mostly.
 
The projections for current players are based on 538s CARMELO model, it projects BPM and RPM (translated into wins), so players on good teams are rewarded and the more games you play in, assuming you're a plus player, the more you're rewarded. The stat doesn't trace production though, it's a plus/minus metric, I'm using it as a baseline for like, for how long and how good is each guy expected to be. Link here to CARMELO
Oh also, I actually ended up with 26, not 25 All-Timers, but I thought that would make the title even more nonsensical than it is and that's why I'm telling you here. On with it forreal now >
 
 
TL ; DR
 
Current Consensus All-Time Rankings
Tier 1: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain
Tier 2: Shaquille O’ Neal, Tim Duncan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson
Tier 3: Kobe Bryant, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwayne Wade, John Stockton, Kevin Garnett, David Robinson, Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Moses Malone, Julius Erving, John Havlicek, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Bob Pettit
 
Current Stars With All-Time Careers
Part 1, Already In: Lebron James, Chris Paul, Kevin Durant
Part 2, All-Time Peak but Short on GP: Stephen Curry, James Harden
3 and 4 aren't defintive , but are notable
Part 3, Toss Up: Anthony Davis, Russell Westbrook
Part 4, Too Soon to Tell: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, Karl Anthony-Towns, Ben Simmons
From my research I'd say there's at least 5 of the 25 best players ever in the league now, playing at a high level, and possibly as many as 11. Safe bet seems like 8 seems, it's hard to imagine at least one of BookeRuss/KAT/Simmons as well as Davis and Giannis busting hard enough to knock them off the path they've set for themselves and once the Lebron era finishes up the standard will be raised a good amount. This lil paragraph is gonna be posted at the end if you stick around till then.
 
 
And for the people who like to read lots of stats and some words, enjoy ~
 
 
 
 
Pre-80s Tier 1 - GOATs 

Bill Russell

Wilt Chamberlain

 
 
 

Tier 1 - GOATs 1000+ GP, 10x+ All-NBA, 6x+ combined MVP and FMVP, top 5 all-time points and win shares 

Michael Jordan

Kareem Abdul-Jabbar

 
 
 
Tier 2: Generational Talents 900x+ GP, 4x combined FMVP and MVP, 10x All-NBA 

Tim Duncan

Magic Johnson

Larry Bird

Shaquille O’Neal

 
 
 

Pre-80s Tier 3:Greats 

Oscar Robertson

Jerry West

John Havlicek

Elgin Baylor

Bob Pettit

 
 
 

Tier 3: Greats Any of 1x MVP/double digit All-NBA/top ten in any major category gets at least a look here. Hakeem and Kobe could be up a tier, I just think they're closer to Malone than they are to Duncan, for example. 

Kobe Bryant

Karl Malone

Hakeem Olajuwon

Moses Malone

John Stockton

Charles Barkley

Dirk Nowitzki - Active

Scottie Pippen

Kevin Garnett

Julius Erving - no ABA

Dwyane Wade - Active

Steve Nash

David Robinson

 
 

Recap 
Tier 1: Michael Jordan, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain
Tier 2: Shaquille O’ Neal, Tim Duncan, Larry Bird, Magic Johnson
Tier 3: Kobe Bryant, Hakeem Olajuwon, Karl Malone, Steve Nash, Dirk Nowitzki, Dwyane Wade, John Stockton, Kevin Garnett, Charles Barkley, Scottie Pippen, Moses Malone, Julius Erving, John Havlicek, Oscar Robertson, Jerry West, Elgin Baylor, Bob Pettit, David Robinson
 
 
Part 1: Already In Self explantory, players who have already put in strong enough careers to be listed among the top 25 ever while still in their relative prime. 

Lebron James

Best Career Comps: Michael Jordan, Karl Malone, Shaq (?)
Current Ranking: Borderline Tier 1/2
Projected Career:
There’s been a ton of ink already spilled on Lebron’s GOAT candidacy and all-time significance, so won’t spend much time here. Two more seasons at roughly his current production and that’s a consensus top 3 all time career, where he’d only be 36 with a chance to get into truly unprecedented levels of sustained dominance. Read Zach Kram’s piece if you want analysis here, it’s basically what I’m doing but more well defined and uniform in every way. Here’s roughly the range of numbers given there (Win Shares estimated):
40k Points All-Time Leader 11k Assists 3rd All-Time 11k Rebounds 260 Win Shares 2nd All-Time
 
Projected Ranking: Tier 1
 
 
 

Kevin Durant

Best Career Comps: Dwanye Wade, Bob Pettit, Larry Bird
Current Ranking: Low Tier 3
Projected Career:
There have been 29 individual seasons of 30/5/5 averages, move that to 30/7/5.5 and it’s cut to 11 seasons, include a 60%TS qualifier to the search and you’ll find two seasons, Michael Jordan’s ‘88-’89 season and Kevin Durant’s ‘13-’14 season, increase the parameters to Durant’s actual averages of 32.0ppg/7.4rpg/5.5apg/1.3spg on 50/39/87 splits or 63%TS/56%eFG and he stands alone. That is a Tier 1 level peak, one of the 20 or so best seasons ever (maybe that’ll be my next project), but his candidacy is going to have some holes. This year has really strengthened the idea that even if Durant is better that Curry is more important to the Warriors, Durant got that FMVP (two now) and was fantastic in that (those) series, but to date only one (two) title (s) total and only one Finals appearance as “the guy”. I think that matters to an extent, looking at positional rankings he’s chasing Bird, who got three titles and two FMVP, but was no question the guy on all three of those teams. Durant’s career is going to be longer, so he’ll pass Bird statistically at some point within the next three years probably, with the metrics are pretty neck and neck. Once he gets to 900-1100 GP, he’ll be near or at the top of Tier 3 and once he closes in on 1200 he’ll be fringe Tier 2, with Hakeem or Kobe, the real question is how many games he has left. Multiple serious injuries to this point in his career, and it’s easy to forget he’s a legit 7 footer who’s going to be 30 next season, and the durability concerns that generally come with that. CARMELO was pretty spot on with his value this year, overestimated his decline just a touch, and he’s expected to be in the same range next year. After that, his value is projected in the above average wing range, similar to Jaylen Brown, KCP, and Kyle Korver this year, for the following three years; finally, two seasons in the Jeff Green/Buddy Hield range. Assuming he sticks at the 65-70 game range, that could look something like: 70 games at 25.0/6.5/5.0/1.0/1.0, 200 games at 21.5/4.0/5.5/1.0/1.0, and 130 games at 18.5/4.0/4.5/1.0/1.0, and Win Shares wise those sections should respectively net about 10, 21, and 9. Adding that onto his current career, his final profile would be:
 
1171 GP: 29.5k Point 8th All-Time ⋄ 7.3k Rebounds ⋄ 5k Assists ⋄ 1.3k Blocks ⋄ 1.3k Steals ⋄ 170 Win Shares ⋄
 
If his defense actually picks up to peak OKC levels, the Warriors win 3-4 titles in a row, or he has one or two more 30 point seasons, his profile will end up a lot stronger than this, but based on this year and his projections I think it’s as likely his career gets short by injuries or he doesn’t even get 400 more games. There’s a lot of variance with Durant, his metrics have always been kinda weird and the deeper this Warriors run goes you’d think his regular season games will drop, ultimately this seems reasonable.
 
Projected Ranking: Upper Tier 3 - Borderline Tier 2/3
 
 
 

Chris Paul

Best Career Comps: Magic Johnson, Steve Nash, Hakeem Olajuwon
Current Ranking: Lower Tier 3
Projected Career:
Currently 538’s projections have CP logging two more seasons of similar quality to this year’s effort, where he put up 18.6/7.9/5.4/1.7 in 58 games, then two seasons at roughly Rubio production, before transitioning into a full time role player. Some notable comps are late career Chauncey and Stockton, betting on at least 4 more quality 60 game campaigns appears to be safe though. The first two let’s say at 17/7/4/1.5 and the back two at 13/7/3/1, which adds 240 GP, 3.6k Points, 1.7k Assists, .8k Rebounds, and .3k Steals. For the first two seasons add on 18 Win Shares and for the back two add 8 Win Shares (CP got 10 this year, Rubio had 5 for reference).That puts a safe estimate for Paul’s final tally at:
 
1132 GP: 20.3k Points ⋄ 10.4k Assists 3rd All-Time ⋄ 4.8k Rebounds ⋄ 2.3k Steals 5th All-Time ⋄ 190.8 Win Shares10th All-Time
 
Without getting into metrics and efficiency, and especially in a conversation generally very saturated with playoff accomplishments, it’s a bit complicated to establish Paul’s spot. Luckily I am using Win Shares and that stat displays a lot of what I’m talking about with CP3, specifically let’s compare him first to Wade, who holds an 100 game and 5000 point lead on Paul. Which hypothetically should give Wade a leg up in this metric, more game time and more pure production, but in actuality, Wade trails CP in this area by a margin of >50< Win Shares, or the equivalent of five ‘18 Chris Paul seasons (who lead the league in Win Shares/48), or two ‘72 Kareem seasons (the single season Win Share record); Pippen has 300 more games, more points, played for winninger teams, and is considered a better defender, but Paul has 25 more Win Shares (or two 2001 Allen Iverson seasons); Kobe has 300 more games and has doubled CP’s point total, yet only holds a 8 Win Shares advantage (that’s less than Paul had this year in a 58 game campaign); Nash has a 300 game edge, more Assists, and more Points, and is generally considered a better floor general, but even so trails CP by a staggering 40 Win Shares. Building on the abursdity of CP's Win Share collection, it’s not like Paul’s numbers are anything to look down on. There’s only 15 seasons on record with his career averages, of which he accounts for five, but it also doesn’t really seem acknowledged that he’s basically averaged 20/10 for a decade now. Honestly I kinda think it’s because he only averaged at least 20 for two of those seasons, and players aren’t really mentally benchmarked as elite scorers if they’re at 19.0ppg instead 21.5ppg. Regardless, Paul’s definitely up there already, honestly I’d have him tied with Wade in the 20s, and depending on his longevity going forward, he should pass Stockton. He won’t have the same longevity as Stockton, but the comparison between their peak seasons and longevity of peak is a joke, ultimately the 2nd PG All Time behind Magic is CP's for the taking. Game total and playoff success are working against him, and the clocks ticking, but I think he ends up passing Stockton and somewhere in the top 20. A consecutive decade with 19/10/4/2 on 48/38/88 as the premier defender at his position is just ludacris, his final act should add some much needed playoff success and resume padding.
 
Projected Ranking: High Tier 3
 
 
 
Part 2: All-Time Peak, Short on GP Title explains. 

James Harden

Comparable Peaks: Larry Bird, Shaquille O' Neil + Steve Nash, Oscar Robertson
Projected Career:
First things first, Harden’s individual peak season, either last year or this year depending on playoff performance, is Tier 2 level. 30 ppg and 10 apg on his efficiency is plain absurd, the only better perimeter scorer seasons are Jordan and Lebron. The main two things working against him at the moment is it taking him 3 years to reach high volume numbers and lack of playoff accolades, so even though his peak is already better than Kobe's, it would take a great deal to pass him everything else considered. Next thing to note is a bit of a quirk in Harden’s CARMELO projections, his top ten closest comps include prime Grant Hill, Deron Williams, and Magic Johnson, as well as ‘91 Jordan and ‘10 Wade. Grant Hill had a steep drop off due to injuries, Magic had a medical situation that cut his prime short, Williams just fell off, Jordan took two years off for baseball, and Wade was at the tail end of his prime. It seems like those specific comps curbed his projections, because considering his durability and non-athletic dependent skillset I wouldn’t expect that much of a drop in production for another 3ish years when he hits 31-32. With those caveats out of the way, and a note that he overperformed his projection this year, CARMELO gives him three more years at around a Paul George/Derozan/Beal level and the three after that in Teague range. Next three years assume he stays in the 75 GP a year range, and I’m going with a line of 26.5/7.5/4.5 which... is low looking at his past 3 years and a tad generous looking at the CARMELO projections, but uhh.. can’t please everyone. That adds 6k Points, 1.7k Assists, and 1k Rebounds to his total, with roughly 35 Win Shares. That takes him through his 31 year old season, and for the following three years I’m gonna be a bit more generous in relation to the CARMELO numbers, for years 32-34 I think 65 GP with 23.5/9/4 is well within reason. This gives him another 4.6k Points, 1.8k Assists, and .8k Rebounds, plus 25 Win Shares going into year 15, where he’d be at 1107 career games. He’ll probably play longer than that but projecting that far gets dicey so his final talley here is:
 
1107 GP: 26.4k Points ⋄ 7.6k Assists ⋄ 5.3k Rebounds ⋄ 156.7 Win Shares ⋄
 
That’s a stronger profile straight up than Wade, Erving, Pippen, and Nash, and very much comparable to Barkley. 3 MVP level seasons with around 8x All-NBA and 1000GP is something only a handful of perimeter players have accomplished.
 
Projected Ranking: Tier 3
 
 
 

Stephen Curry

Comparable Peaks: Dwanye Wade, Steve Nash, Jerry West, Dirk Nowitizki
Projected Career: If Curry retired tomorrow he would go down as the greatest shooter to ever play the game and he already holds one of the best offensive seasons ever, putting up 30 a game on a ridiculous 67%TS/63%eFG (the only player with a season of that volume and efficiency) with an equally absurd 125 OffRating in 2700 minutes. Curry’s peak puts him in the Tier 1-2 conversation and in the top 5 point guard conversation, assuming he can start stacking games to bolster his resume. The main blemishes here are a good, but not great, first MVP season(24/8/4/2, 67 wins, title), no FMVP(he deserved Iguodala's), and not really breaking out till he was 24-25. He’s smack in the middle of his prime right now though, he could hypothetically double his game count depending on how he ages. There’s also at the very least, one more year of this Warriors run, but probably longer and while the Rockets are a very real threat, that team isn’t built for the long term. Point being, Curry could feasibly end up with 4-5+ titles, alongside 2 MVPs, a ton of wins, greatest shooter ever, and that’s looking like a resume that could start rivaling Magic. Bringing in the CARMELO, he’s projected to be pretty steady for the next six years; he underperformed this year because he only played 51 games, but is expected to stay at the same effectiveness next year, before marginal a drop, three years at that level, and another two after another small drop. It’s a close enough overall range I’m just going to combine all six of those seasons, 65 games a piece (he’s, somewhat surprisingly, only played less than 74 twice but playing full seasons as the Warriors age seems unlikely +leveraging in case of injuries) at 24.0/6.5/4.5/1.5. That point total may seem low, but that includes his age 34-35 seasons where you’d assume a dip in production of some kind; in terms of increasing Curry’s career stats, from this scenario he adds; 390 GP: 9.4k Points ⋄ 2.5k Assists ⋄ 1.8k Rebounds ⋄ .6k Steals and 55 Win Shares or so. Given that, we’re looking at a final tally of:
 
1,015 GP: 23.4k Points ⋄ 6.5k Assists ⋄ 4.6k Rebounds ⋄ 1.6k Steals ⋄ 143.3 Win Shares ⋄
 
A total like that with a peak as strong as his gets into Tier 2 range with enough wins and playoff success. I think his profile is a touch stronger than Durant given the two MVPs, 73 win season, and Championship prior to Durant joining. I’m not going to project titles or playoff success, but with his head start accolade wise and their success from here on out being tied, I give him a little bit stronger chance to end up Tier 2, especially if he ever nabs at least one FMVP.
 
Projected Ranking: Borderline Tier 2/3
 
 
 
Part 3: Toss Up A bit more vague, but I explain the reasoning on why they're not in the tier up in their projections. 

Russell Westbrook

Projected Career: Well, this is definitely an interesting one, back-to-back triple double seasons, an MVP, a few deep playoff runs with Durant, but about to hit 30 with the very legitimate possibility he doesn’t sniff the Finals again. Despite a few notable scoring seasons, he only actually has 3 seasons above 25 ppg and his career average is somehow only 23 ppg despite a career usage of 32.7%. And yet, an MVP and 1000GP is close to automatic entry to this very definitive, scientific ranking; ultimately failing to pick up a title with Durant is probably going to hurt his resume a good bit when he’s lacking in so many other areas. Taking a step back from narrative and context, let’s see how his stats could measure out; CARMELO gives him two more elite seasons and then four really good seasons and Russ generally does play full seasons, so that could work in his favor. 150 games at 27.0ppg/8.5rpg/8.5apg/1.5spg with 18 Win Shares, and the four season period after that a very slight less game load where he’ll be ages 32-35, so 280 games at 24.0ppg/8.5apg/6.0rpg/1.5spg and 28 Win Shares. His new total given this is:
 
1,178 GP: 27.8k Points 9th All-Time ⋄ 8k Rebounds ⋄ 9.7k Assists 7th All-Time ⋄ 1.9k Steals ⋄ 136.1Win Shares ⋄
 
Everything said prior and acknowledging the holes in his game and legacy, that’s a damn impressive career profile. Top ten in scoring and assists, and he has a shot at steals too, basically the pure counting stats would have him in, but no 60 win or title seasons as The Guy is sorta damaging. “Best Player on a Bunch of Sub-50 Win Teams, Only 1 Finals Appearance with Prime Durant” isn’t a generous reading per say, but also wouldn't be particularly untrue to point out. There’s definitely a threshold where his numbers are so ridiculous he gets in though, and the MVP is a very strong accolade, so wait and see?
 
Projected Ranking: Fringe Tier 3
 
 
 

Anthony Davis

Projected Career:
Little fun fact about Anthony Davis, he is a full 25 years of age, and won’t turn 26 until -next- March. He led the league in PER at age 21 and should reasonably be in his prime for another seven years, even with some nagging injury concerns. Because of the day-to-day nature of following the league, it’s easy to forget perspective when looking at players, especially younger ones with prodigious talent. Anthony Davis averaged 28 and 12 with All-NBA defense when he was 23, and we’ve seen big men who didn’t fully blossom until they’re 28 or later. The sky is absolutely still the limit for AD basically, his metrics and the Pels defensive stats lag, suggesting that his team defense has room for improvement, he’s already added a 3pt shot this year, and now it looks like the Pels should be playoff competitors through Holiday and (possibly)Boogie’s primes with AD. CARMELO has Davis staying in the same range of production until he’s 30, but the model doesn’t go past there, I’m gonna give him to age 35 though with a guesstimate drop. This is projecting the farthest so even though the numbers will probably easily be in Tier 2 or 3, it’s not definitive. For these next six years, his production should be similar and should actually increase, but in the interest of being conservative here, 70 games a year at 27.0/11.5/2.0/2.0/1.0 with 11.5 Win Shares. Through his first six years he’s played 410 games, so it’s only a small uptick, but if he’s healthy from here on out that number should be higher too. At that point he’ll be 31 with five seasons till he’s 35, and a lot of great bigs still played full time into their late 30s, but given the modern NBA I’m going to drop him to 65 games a year for those years at 23.0/9.5/2.0/1.0 and 8.0 Win Shares. It is entirely reasonable to expect him to blow those numbers out of the water though, but even with that let’s take a look at his new profile, with an added; 745 GP: 18.8k Points ⋄ 7.9k Rebounds ⋄ 1.5k Assists ⋄ 1.5k Blocks ⋄ .7k Steals ⋄ 97.5 Win Shares. On top of his current numbers, that gives him a final line of:
 
1,155 GP: 28.4k Points9th All-Time ⋄ 12.1k Rebounds ⋄ 2.2k Assists ⋄ 2.5k Blocks10th All-Time ⋄ 1.2k Steals ⋄ 160.0 Win Shares ⋄
 
Moral of the story being that if AD stays healthy and stops improving he could sleepwalk into top ten All-Time in points and blocks. He’s at a point where he legitimately could have two more leaps though, on top of the possibility of him having a crazy long career, ala Dirk/Kareem; as well as the fact that during his real prime (generally ages 28-31): Lebron will be on the wrong side of 36 and the Warriors will be broken up or see some age regress as Curry and Durant head towards 35, so there could be some legit playoff success. He could end up anywhere in the top 25, and I would bet on him making it into there in some fashion.
 
Projected Ranking: Assuming health, floor is Tier 3. Outside that, who knows?
 
 
Part 4: Too Soon to Tell 
This is seriously way-way-way too soon, however, there’s a few players who have historically impressive early careers and should be given a cursory glance.
Giannis Anteokounmpo
Why He’s Notable: This should go without saying, but averaging 27/10/5/1.5/1.5 with 12 Win Shares at age 23 is extremely impressive. Giannis could’ve gotten a profile, AD only has one more actual season on him, but AD has been producing like a cornerstone for four years now and Giannis has only been at this level for just two seasons, including the most recent campaign. He’s the youngest player in the modern era to have at least 25/9/4 in a season, so this is another sky’s the limit player, however I would say Tier 1 is likely out of reach though. He’s made a major leap every year in the league and is about six years short of his prime at the moment, so even though his first two seasons could weigh down his eventual career profile, he could very easily catch up to a lot of Tier 3 guys who had injury periods or weren’t first options large parts of their career. Depending on who the Bucks bring in to coach, Giannis could have Tier 1 peak as soon as next year if the Bucks defensive numbers tick back up and their win total starts to match their talent.
Ben Simmons
Why He’s Notable: Simmons statline this year was a startlingly impressive for a rookie,
81 GP- 15.8ppg/8.1rpg/8.2apg/1.7spg/0.9bpg/9.2 Win Shares, 52-30 record.
Well actually, the rookie qualifier isn’t even necessary to illustrate the rarity of his season, there have only ever been 16 seasons in the history of the NBA with a 15-8-8 line and of those 16 seasons, Simmons is not only the youngest but ranks second in DRPM and third in Defensive Win Shares. Include his 1.5 Steals a game and it’s an even more exclusive club with just seven seasons putting up that line. He is already 21 and the free throwing shooting is a concern, but even if he barely improved and averaged 18.5ppg/8.5apg/8.5rpg/1.5spg/1.0bpg/10 Win Shares as a top ten defender for the next 13-14 years, that’s an all time career. The fact that he’s already putting up All Time numbers bodes very well for the 76ers, his start was legitimately strong enough that Tier 2 is within the realm of possibility if he makes any major leap within the next 3-4 years.
Devin Booker
Why He’s Notable: Booker is one of 9 players to ever average 24.5ppg by age 21, and that’s honestly the only noteworthy accomplishment he has, but points are pretty important so note this accomplishment I have. Issue projecting Booker is his playoff and team success in the next decade is an complete unknown and and he could reasonably hit 6,000 Points before he’s 23, a near lock (health presuming) for the All-Time Points leaderboard. which deserves a mention at the very least. For reference, Kobe’s first four seasons netted him 4,240 Points, Dirk’s left him with 5,383; and Malone and Jordan played their rookie seasons at age 22. That’s the 3rd, 6th, 2nd, and 4th All-Time scoring leaders respectively, and Booker is absolutely in range to have a huge head start on a point total if he’s a legit 25 a game scorer moving forward.
Karl Anthony Towns
Why He’s Notable: KAT also falls in the prior mentioned group of sub-22 year olds with a 25 ppg season, doing so last year before the acquisition of Jimmy Butler. He has a couple of legs up on Booker when looking at their production to date: KAT has so far not missed a game in his career, his rookie season was a great deal more impressive, and his comical efficiency. He’s already sitting at 5,307 Points through his first three seasons, averaging 21.6 ppg at age 22 with these shooting percentages: 54/39/84 & eFG/TS of 58/62. Basically off to a strong enough start at a young enough age that the sky's the limit scoring wise, as well as nearly 12 boards a game for his first three seasons and a solid collection of metrics. It seems like his stock has taken a hit the past year, especially last few weeks, but all he’s shown so far in his career is machine-like levels of durability and production. His full potential could be held back by playing next to multiple high usage perimeter guys, though on the flip side maybe that will be offset by increased early playoff success.
 
That's That 
From my research I'd say there's at least 5 of the 25 best players ever in the league now, playing at a high level, and possibly as many as 11. Safe bet seems like 8 seems, it's hard to imagine at least one of BookeRuss/KAT/Simmons as well as Davis and Giannis busting hard enough to knock them off the path they've set for themselves and once the Lebron era finishes up the standard will be raised a good amount.
submitted by Ghostnappa4 to nba [link] [comments]

The magic number in sports betting is -110 because it defines the amount required by a sportsbook to earn $100 on either side of most wagers. A bettor must lay $110 to win $100 when wagering on point spreads , which are set by oddsmakers with hopes of getting equal action on both sides. In this document on the different terms used in sports betting lines, including probabilities point spreads lines etc. One of the first aspects of sports betting every new player must learn what the different symbols mean. A plus or minus can mean different things and furious situation. What Are Sports Bettting Odds? Odds on a sports betting site are nothing more than a way for a sportsbook to represent the chance of winning a sports bettor has when placing a certain wager. The three most common sports betting odds are as follows: American Odds (represented by a plus/minus symbol and a number, such as +110) Betting on underdogs is always tricky, but the rewards are there, as a winning bet will always yield the investment amount at least. Plus and minus in moneyline betting. The most popular type of sports betting is the moneyline bet. This is the act of placing a wager on a team or player to win the contest in question. Point spreads serve as the basis of betting. This includes a representation of the favorite sports through a minus sign. Underdog points is, on the other hand, represented through plus sign.

[index] [4731] [14248] [14984] [4432] [2641] [12609] [14572] [534] [12906] [7838]